5 years and still no strategy | Page 127 | Forex Factory

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5 years and still no strategy

  • #2,521
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:10am Jun 13, 2018 1:10am
Quoting mzvega
Serial Correlation........ The lack of day-to-day serial correlation in auction markets is often the starting point for random market theory. Studies as early as Labys and Granger (1970) confirm the day-to-day randomness. Even in trending markets, the expectation of up price or down price for the next dayis still about 50-50. Even odds in non-trending markets is easy to understand; in trending ones it is not so obvious. A market that is trending up or down does have an enhanced probability in the trend direction; it is just pretty well masked by...
You need special data to get these stats. I tried it with EURUSD and it's 50:50, no matter if you take 1/2/3/4 samples. Maybe it worked 1990's but not now.
  • #2,522
  • Jun 13, 2018 2:13am Jun 13, 2018 2:13am
Being 5 years experience in trading does'nt matter if you did'nt figure out proper strategy. In my experience if a guy doing trading for 5 years must being developed strategy to trade naturally.
  • #2,523
  • Jun 13, 2018 4:13am Jun 13, 2018 4:13am
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} You need special data to get these stats.
No, you don’t………
Quoting IenDzi
I tried it with EURUSD and it's 50:50, no matter if you take 1/2/3/4 samples. Maybe it worked 1990's but not now.
Maybe "what" worked? I was not describing some kind of a trading strategy.
Quoting IenDzi
I tried it with EURUSD and it's 50:50, no matter if you take 1/2/3/4 samples
That's the Point.......There is little evidence when tested that price changes in period A have something to tell traders about price changes in period B, there is only evidence to the contrary. That should make someone question the validity of their trading methodology (Technical Analysis). The data (empirical evidence) doesn't support the methodology......

I think your missing the point
to clarify……….
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10638051

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post10638220

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...7#post10638757

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post10641583

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...6#post10642546
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #2,524
  • Jun 13, 2018 4:39am Jun 13, 2018 4:39am
My advice to you:
Get an EA that allows you to set a fix Takeprofit and Stoploss I personally use 1: 2 risk to reward 5 pips to 10 pips.
Go down to the 5 min chart study the chart pick one pattern that appear fairly common, retract the movement of the last 3 days and see if you would have been profitable following the pattern.
Repeat this test until you find a few pattern that are fairly common and would have allow a winrate over 40% assuming a 1 : 2 R and R.
After focus on eliminating the the patterns you have chosen by continuously back testing them , you are looking for the most common one with a winrate of over 40% over a period of 2 weeks ( 100+ trades ) with at least 80% of those days being profitable.

Once this is done you should back test your chosen pattern for a period of 1 month ( 200 trades ).
Ensure the pattern win rate is near 40% +
ensure you can get 5 to 10 trades per day using the pattern.
As much as I hate you admit indicators are not useless and they will make seeing such pattern way easier.
  • #2,525
  • Jun 14, 2018 1:38pm Jun 14, 2018 1:38pm
I have been trading for about 17 years now. Time does not asure you will succeed. It could may well be that a person succeeds within a short period because heīs been able to recognize very soon a winning strategy mainly by chance. Financial markets a made up of numbers so it is just mathematics. As far as i know, there are 2 persons who can predict using mathematical formula. Mr. Gann who mastered angles plus other tecnics that never explained and Mr. Martin Armstrong who uses mathematical formula based on PI(3.14). This means that unless you have a strategy to enter the market at tops or bottoms you are bound to get cheated by artificial intellegence(robots who will corner you dead easy). So you must be almost 100% accurate when buying or selling.
POSTMASTER
  • #2,526
  • Jun 14, 2018 6:19pm Jun 14, 2018 6:19pm
the main problem is that when I look at the charts I absolutely see nothing - like a complete novice... theoretically I know how to trade, but it doesn't translate into practice... I don't know how to create a solid strategy with all this knowledge and whether I need it at all? maybe the key is to trade what you see, without focusing on one setup...

I've tested a lot of different strategies and I'm missing ideas for trading... the strategy that gives me a lot of opportunities would suit me the most - ideally for the M5 timeframe, with a tight stop loss (10-15 pips max), a good ratio (1:2) and 40-50% accuracy I always risk 2% of the account per trade so 2-3 profitable trades a day would be enough for me...

I like price action and trading with trend, so I try to create something in this direction...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #2,527
  • Jun 14, 2018 8:50pm Jun 14, 2018 8:50pm
Markets can be manipulated 99% of the time. As humans we want to believe what we want to believe and therefore 99% of people who read this post will I not agree because people hope to live on markets just by entering the markets. I will explain: We are all positioned and yet the big guy can see our positions(image playing poker where one of the gamblers can see everybody round and on top of that heīs got piles of money to push his way). Now, because this is mathematics, 5 + 5 = 10. What you donīt know is the formula to enter at a top or a bottom or what we call "sopport and resistence", I call it natural law where nobody can break through(these positions are the number 10 as a result of 5+5). You must understand that the holy grail is to come up with a mathematical formula that also consider time (hours, days, months or years). it depends on whether you are more or less aggressive trading and this is absolutley necessary "time". The big guy doesnīt know the formula either but he has all the information plus the supply power(money) so at a certain point(the big guyīs robot artificial intellenge) will corner some traders at number 10 thinking he can break through but he canīt and therefore he will also be trapped with some losses. This is when markets go crazy and then the media will say " a broker pressed a button by mistake", nonsense. So, if you donīt spend all your energy finding this formula forget about beating the markets and still you might never find it in your whole live. I read everyone giving advise how to win but i donīt see anybody with proof of constant profits. "We want to believe what we want to believe" The market has its way if you understand it.
POSTMASTER
  • #2,528
  • Jun 17, 2018 10:18pm Jun 17, 2018 10:18pm
Quoting VEEFX
I will also share this for those who are not yet realizing the importanceof having a strategy. There is a very tiny edge to be found in the market or on charts across all known setups. Very small if any and most won't even recover trading costs. Your real edge or weapon is the have a robust strategy that will work hard on your behalf to tilt this tiny edge towards you. For those who think they got this...it is just a matter of time when your edge will decay over time. You must know how to win more when you are winning and lose less when you are...
Rubbish
  • #2,529
  • Jun 19, 2018 8:07pm Jun 19, 2018 8:07pm
Quoting ichikuse
I repeat, please try to stick to one template ,try to stick to a few indicators ,try to stick to one time frame.Master those until you are successful and then you may try new things.
Very few people follow this basic rules. All are restless here. They are just running after. Even they don't know what they are looking for. They want it ready made. Unwilling to experiments as it takes time. They want it quick. They focus more on making money instead of developing skills.
  • #2,530
  • Jul 21, 2018 9:24am Jul 21, 2018 9:24am
It is good to see that members are actively sharing their own thoughts here. Well I am appreciating your approach of trading. Though apparently it may seem that you are not following any trading strategy, it seems that you are adopting proper methods to ensure secure trading which is turning into systematic methods. However, I must say that adoption one trading strategy can help you to trade even more systematically.
  • #2,531
  • Jul 22, 2018 11:51am Jul 22, 2018 11:51am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?
Thanks for your honesty.

Don't worry, you are not alone in this.

---

Both options are good.

Most traders here will tell you to keep on trading, because they believe they are good at trading or they think they will succeed someday.

However, I see no point in forcing yourself to trade, if trading continues to cause you 'pain', frustration and loss of wealth.

Since you are contemplating on leaving it, there must be very good reasons behind that. No one has the right to stop you from that. If quitting can make your life better (eg from not losing any more money), by all mean quit.

TBH. I have 'quited' 4 or 5 times. Most of them ended up as hiatus. Everytime I came back from a hiatus, I came back a better person, a better trader.
A long break from a bad period of trading can do tons of wonder.

My suggestion is to take a long break if you need to. This break will give you time to cool down and ample time to decide what you want to do as far as trading is concerned. There is no need to commit to a decision to quit trading now.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #2,532
  • Jul 22, 2018 1:45pm Jul 22, 2018 1:45pm
Quoting Robinhood1
I read everyone giving advise how to win but i donīt see anybody with proof of constant profits.
What??? You don't actually believe F.F. traders are good at trading. That is heresy!! Dx

If you see a GOOD post (or advice), that's a sure sign that the person who wrote that, is a GOOD trader!!
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #2,533
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:53pm Jul 22, 2018 3:53pm
Well, I'm still trying to refine and simplify my strategy based on higher low / lower high method. Now I want to trade single candlestick patterns (pinbar, doji, etc.) from H4 or D1 timeframe, and then look for entry from M15 or M30. The biggest problem for me is finding a good SR level to open the trade, but I think that over time I will manage to work it out... My strategy must be simple and effective - otherwise it doesn't make sense...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #2,534
  • Jul 22, 2018 7:02pm Jul 22, 2018 7:02pm
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} What??? You don't actually believe F.F. traders are good at trading. That is heresy!! Dx If you see a GOOD post (or advice), that's a sure sign that the person who wrote that, is a GOOD trader!!
Crap, crap, crap!!!
When you see it, BET big.
  • #2,535
  • Jul 22, 2018 9:47pm Jul 22, 2018 9:47pm
Crap, crap, crap!!!

Are you out to challenge everyone who have shared their trading tips in this thread?

And do you think that was a good post (your post) that can help improve trading?
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #2,536
  • Jul 22, 2018 10:13pm Jul 22, 2018 10:13pm
really helpful!!!
  • #2,537
  • Jul 22, 2018 10:17pm Jul 22, 2018 10:17pm
Quoting freakout
thanks for all replies as I wrote earlier - I tried many different trading methods, from scalping to day trading, trend trading, countertrend trading, swing trading and much more... I've been testing another strategy this year - first HL or LH after trend change (HH -> HL & entry or LL -> LH & entry) on M15, but after few weeks profit was very small... I'm trying to find something for a lower timeframes (M15 - H1), because I'm not interested in depositing too much money and if I can't trade on a smaller deposit, then a bigger one won't change...
Over-optimization is an issue many traders do not address.

Expecting a trading system to work in the long run is a fallacy belief.

The market is dynamic, ever changing.
A static trading system on the other hand is over rigid, and prone to over optimization.

If you want to win, you have to (try) think like the market.
Do the opposite of what losing traders are doing.
Enter in areas
- where retail traders think is illogical levels to enter trade.
- where stops are hunted out (retail traders are stopped out)

Base your trading on this, maybe you will have some chance.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #2,538
  • Jul 22, 2018 11:11pm Jul 22, 2018 11:11pm
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Over-optimization is an issue many traders do not address. Expecting a trading system to work in the long run is a fallacy belief. The market is dynamic, ever changing. A static trading system on the other hand is over rigid, and prone to over optimization. If you want to win, you have to (try) think like the market. Do the opposite of what losing traders are doing. Enter in areas - where retail traders think is illogical levels to enter trade. - where stops are hunted out (retail traders are stopped out) Base your trading on this, maybe...
Brilliant and I am sure you can give us some live trade calls to prove what you have just preached.

Hehe
  • #2,539
  • Jul 22, 2018 11:48pm Jul 22, 2018 11:48pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Brilliant and I am sure you can give us some live trade calls to prove what you have just preached. Hehe
Traders will lose money if they follow another trader who trades a different style of trading.

You are not me. I am not you. Our beliefs on the market and trading are different. We trade differently.

In my opinion, giving live calls is one of the worst ways to help another trader.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #2,540
  • Jul 23, 2018 12:00am Jul 23, 2018 12:00am
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} Traders will lose money if they follow another trader who trades a different style of trading. You are not me. I am not you. Our beliefs on the market and trading are different. We trade differently. In my opinion, giving live calls is one of the worst ways to help another trader.
Ofc live calls will not help other traders but it will prove what you have advocated and preached. Pls stay in context and spew other rubbish.

Hehe
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