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  • #601
  • May 23, 2018 5:07am May 23, 2018 5:07am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Wednesday, May 23rd

The EUR/USD pair resumed its downside trend, having refreshed 5-month lows in the vicinity of 1.1700 level, due to disappointing German data. Yesterday the pair tested the region of 1.1830, as US bulls eased pressure on the pair, having taken a brief breather. However, the major failed to keep its positive tone and came under bearish control due to uncertainty on the political field of Italy. Markets remain worried that new populist government's fiscal policy will negatively affect the economy of Italy. Furthermore, weaker-than-expected German PMI figures, published this morning, also had a negative impact on the pair, forcing it to drop to its recent lows. Now all markets’ attention shifts towards the US data and FOMC meeting minutes, which will help the pair to determine its further direction during the NY trades.

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  • #602
  • May 24, 2018 5:34am May 24, 2018 5:34am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, May 24th

The EUR/USD pair follows broad market trend this Thursday, trying to correct from its 6-month lows, located on the level of 1.1676. Today downside correction of the US dollar remains the main underlying theme, giving the major currencies another chance to recover the ground. Yesterday the Fed released minutes from its last meeting, which showed that the committee is not going to accelerate the pace of rate increase, thereby sending the US dollar lower across the board. Nevertheless, the Fed members agreed that if inflation continues to grow at the same pace, then a rate hike in the near future might be appropriate. As for the data, now it is ECB’s turn to publish meeting minutes, while investors will also pay attention to the US data from the housing, which will be released during NY trades.

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  • #603
  • May 25, 2018 5:35am May 25, 2018 5:35am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Friday, May 25th

The EUR/USD pair has regained its negative tone, navigating towards its semiannual lows, marked on the level of 1.1676 on Wednesday. Today’s retreat of the pair can be mainly explained by renewed buying interest around the US dollar after its slight correction. Moreover, ongoing uncertainty on the political field of Italy continues to weight the common currency, limiting its chances on any recovery. In addition, yesterday’s ECB minutes showed that the Bank is not planning to change its current monetary policy stance, while the Fed is expected to continue with tightening of its monetary policy. The growing monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB also negatively affects the pair. As for economic events, today investors won’t have to complain about the lack of relevant data, as both economic calendars contain important releases, and the Fed Chair J. Powell will deliver his speech on Financial Stability and Transparency in early NA session.

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  • #604
  • May 28, 2018 4:47am May 28, 2018 4:47am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Monday, May 28th

The EUR/USD pair opened this week with a bullish gap of 35 pips and returned above the level of 1.1700. Today’s upside trend of the pair can be mainly explained by increased buying interest around the common currency, as the Five Star Movement and League failed to form a ruling coalition in Italy. Increased demand for the euro triggered retreat of the US dollar across the market. However, further gains of the pair look limited, as the greenback benefits from the easing tensions between the US and N. Korea. According to the latest tweets of the US President, the US team has arrived in North Korea to make arrangements for the Summit, thereby reviving hopes that the meeting between leaders will take place in June. On the data front, nothing much is scheduled in the data calendar for this Monday, so broad market trend will continue to determine pair’s further direction during this trading session.

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  • #605
  • May 30, 2018 5:15am May 30, 2018 5:15am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Wednesday, May 30th

The EUR/USD pair recovered some pips in Asia after its retreat to 10-month lows, backed by increasing political jitters in Italy. According to the latest news, snap elections in Italy could take place at some point during July. Fresh elections in Italy may provide a stronger mandate to anti-EU parties. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses, as the US dollar stalled its bullish run, offering another respite to the major currencies this Wednesday. On the data front, during European trades investors will focus their attention on the German unemployment data, while the US will offer markets preliminary GDP estimates and ADP employment report, which will form pair’s near-term trajectory this Wednesday.

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  • #606
  • May 31, 2018 5:19am May 31, 2018 5:19am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, May 31st

The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the second consecutive session, having bounced off its half-year lows on Wednesday, located in the vicinity of 1.1500. Today the pair extends its upside correction and in early Europe broke through the level of 1.1700 that can be mainly explained by downside correction of the US dollar, which was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s weak ADP jobs data. Moreover, the lack of news regarding political developments in Italy also eased pressure on the common currency this Thursday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will bring us important CPI figures, while the US will offer us the home pending sales report, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.

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  • #607
  • Jun 1, 2018 4:51am Jun 1, 2018 4:51am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Friday, June 1st

The EUR/USD pair remains pretty much directionless so far this session, keeping its positions just below the level of 1.1700. It seems that the common currency ignores bullish dynamics of the US dollar, thereby protecting the pair from any significant losses. Moreover, lack of further news from Italy has cooled off markets’ concerns over the formation of a coalition between populist parties, which in turn positively affects the common currency this Friday. On the other hand, re-ignited fears of a global trade war, following US President’s announcement that the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, is limiting any further gains of the pair. As for the data, today we will have busy trading session ahead, featuring manufacturing data from the US and Germany, and the US non-farm payrolls, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction on Friday.

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  • #608
  • Jun 4, 2018 5:26am Jun 4, 2018 5:26am

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Monday, June 4th

The EUR/USD pair is following broad market trend at the first day of the trading week, keeping its positions above the level of 1.1700. Today the key determinant on the market remains downside correction of the US dollar, which offers notable support to the major. The main reason of US bulls’ weakness is the overbought US dollar, as investors have already managed to fully price in a June Fed rate hike. However, further gains of the pair look limited, as ongoing concerns over political situation in Italy are still weighing the shared currency. As for the data, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for this Monday, so broad market sentiment will continue to form pair’s further trajectory during this trading session.

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  • #609
  • Jun 5, 2018 4:43am Jun 5, 2018 4:43am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Tuesday, June 5th

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a mild bearish bias this Tuesday, failing to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.1700. Renewed weakness of the pair could be mainly explained by attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent downside correction. Moreover, it seems that the dust around political situation in Italy has settled down, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to play a role of the key driver for the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will offer us bloc of local PMIs as well as overall EU PMI report, however, it is expected that these reports won’t provoke any notable reaction across the market. Meanwhile, the US will offer today the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory during the NA session.

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  • #610
  • Jun 6, 2018 5:06am Jun 6, 2018 5:06am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Wednesday, June 6th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on a positive note so far this week, having reached its 2-week highs on the level of 1.1766. Recent positive rally of the pair can be mainly explained by recent market talks that the ECB can discuss the exit of its QE program on the next meeting, which will take place next week. Nevertheless, chances that the EU regulator will reduce the economy stimulation are pretty low, as latest EZ economic data didn’t show any positive dynamics, therefore most likely the ECB will keep its monetary policy accommodative. As for today, further dynamics of the pair will likely remain bullish, however, no aggressive movements are expected, as concerns regarding political situation in Italy are still weighing the common currency. On Wednesday, the economic calendar won’t offer anything important to investors, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during today session.

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  • #611
  • Jun 7, 2018 4:56am Jun 7, 2018 4:56am

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Thursday, June 7th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish rally, having broken through the level of 1.1900 in early Europe, on the back of several bullish factors, which are setting the direction for the pair this Thursday. The pair continues advancing northward, having left behind its multi-year lows, marked in the vicinity of 1.1500 last week. One of the main drivers for the pair remains widespread talks that the ECB will likely discuss the timetable for ending its stimulation program on the next meeting. In addition, ongoing retreat of the US dollar also contributes to a sharp correction of the pair. In the day ahead, both economic calendars won’t offer us anything important, leaving again the pair at the mercy of widespread sentiment during today’s trades.

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  • #612
  • Jun 8, 2018 5:22am Jun 8, 2018 5:22am

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Friday, June 8th

The EUR/USD pair stalled its bullish trends after four consecutive sessions at a profit. Yesterday, the pair managed to refresh its 3-week highs on the level of 1.1840 on the back of widespread speculations that the ECB can discuss tapering of its QE program next week. So now we can say that the ECB meeting, which will be held next Thursday, has significantly increased in importance. However, today’s retreat can be attributed to correction of the pair after its notable growth and to attempts of the US dollar to regain its positions across the market. Meanwhile, the next important event for the pair remains G7 meeting, as investors expect that participants of the summit will discuss the ongoing trade conflicts. Moreover, French President Emmanuel Macron has already managed to speak out against the US protectionism policy and metal tariffs in particular. Besides the important G7 meeting, nothing else is scheduled in the event calendar for this Friday, so any developments regarding a potential trade war will remain in center stage.

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  • #613
  • Jun 11, 2018 6:02am Jun 11, 2018 6:02am

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Monday, June 11th

The EUR/USD pair regained its bullish tone this Monday, while again having broken through the level of 1.1800 in Asia. Today one of the main drivers across the market remains ongoing retreat of the US dollar, additionally underpinned by lack of any positive news from G7 summit, as the US refused to revise its stiff tariffs on steel and aluminum. Moreover, in his tweeter account, Mr. Trump wrote that the US protects Europe at great financial loss (criticizing Germany for insufficiently large NATO payments), while being unfairly clobbered on trade. However, we have a busy week ahead with FOMC, ECB and US-N. Korea meetings, which will have a significant impact on the pair. But today, the economic calendar will remain silent, so markets will continue to prepare for important events.


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  • #614
  • Jun 12, 2018 5:18am Jun 12, 2018 5:18am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Tuesday, June 12th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive today, reaching the area of 1.1800. However, further growth of the pair remains capped on the back of bullish dynamics of the US dollar, following historic US-N. Korea summit. Today in Singapore took place much-awaited one-on-one meeting of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, where leaders signed a document, the content of which will be released later. Moreover, both leaders remained satisfied with the outcome of the meeting, while Mr. Kim Jong-un stressed that there would be challenges ahead but he would work with Mr. Trump, and he believes that this is a good prelude for peace. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp movements during today’s trades, as we are heading towards the Fed and ECB meetings, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Both meetings will remain in the spotlight, as investors expected the Fed to increase its interest rate and the ECB to discuss the tapering of the QE program. But for today we have German and EU ZEW economic surveys and US inflation data, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory.

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  • #615
  • Jun 13, 2018 5:27am Jun 13, 2018 5:27am

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Wednesday, June 13th

The EUR/USD pair remains flat this Wednesday, trading in the region of 1.1735-55 in anticipation of key events. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of series of weak ZEW economic surveys and upbeat US inflation figures. However, the pair managed to recover some pips after yesterday’s retreat and consolidate its positions within recent range amid broad cautiousness ahead of FOMC and ECB meetings, which will be able to bring divergence between regulators’ policies back into the play. For the most of the market today’s Fed rate hike remains a done deal, so investors will pay attention to the Fed's forward guidance, especially taking into account recent series of strong US macro data. Today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant, so investors will focus their attention on the key event of this Wednesday – the FOMC meeting, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

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  • #616
  • Jun 14, 2018 5:32am Jun 14, 2018 5:32am

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Thursday, June 14th

The EUR/USD pair is following widespread sentiment this Thursday, having spiked the level of 1.1800 in early Europe. Today the weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on the back not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. Yesterday, as it was widely expected the Fed raised its interest up to 2%. Moreover, the regular indicated two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018 instead of 3 and revised to upside its economic projections for this year. However, the regulator didn’t make any adjustments to the neutral level of interest rate, so the rate will reach its neutral level by the end of 2019. The market negatively reacted on this news, as it means that the Fed will only accelerate the policy tightening cycle, but not expand it. Another reason of dollar retreat can be called its overbought condition, as Fed hawkish decision was fully priced-in and investors locked in some profits after the meeting, sending the greenback lower. But for now all investors’ eye remain glued to the ECB meeting. No any changes in interest rate are expected, however, investors will eagerly await for any comments regarding the QE program tapering. Besides the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference, markets will also pay attention to the US retail sales data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.


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  • #617
  • Jun 15, 2018 4:42am Jun 15, 2018 4:42am

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Friday, June 15th

The EUR/USD pair is extending its massive retreat, refreshing its 2-week lows on the level of 1.1543, as market speculations regarding yesterday’s ECB meeting are still weighting the common currency. Yesterday the pair witnessed a free fall, having lost almost 300 pips, triggered by ECB’s dovish QE program tapering and Mr. Draghi’s comments regarding next ECB rate hike. According to the results of the ECB meeting, the regulator intends to begin QE program tapering, but starting only in October. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference ECB President M. Draghi said that he sees next interest rate hike no sooner than summer 2019. The outcome of the ECB meeting negatively affected the common currency, sending it to its recent lows. Moreover, upbeat US retails sales data increased buying interest around the greenback, thus additionally accelerating pair’s drop. Now traders’ attention remains focused on the Eurozone inflation data, which is the last important release for this week, so investors will continue to digest recent events, thus determining pair’s further direction.

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  • #618
  • Jun 18, 2018 5:10am Jun 18, 2018 5:10am

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Monday, June 18th

The EUR/USD pair again came under bearish pressure on Monday, failing to keep its positions above the level of 1.1600. Renewed weakness of the pair can be mainly explained by increased tensions regarding migration issue in Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes tightening the rules for the entry of migrants to Germany. A tough confrontation on this issue from Mrs. Merkel’s side can cause a repeat parliamentary election. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, following dovish comments of President M. Draghi, who sees next rate hike only next summer, is also putting some pressure on the common currency. As for economic events, today investors will focus their attention on the speech by Mr. Draghi at the Sintra Forum, which will take place during NY trades, while the US data calendar won’t be able to offer anything relevant this Monday.

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  • #619
  • Jun 19, 2018 4:39am Jun 19, 2018 4:39am

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Tuesday, June 19th

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and fell to its intraday lows, located on the level of 1.1571, following broad market trend. Today one of the main drivers across the market remain the US dollar price movements, determined by the escalation of dispute between the US and China. Recall, on Friday China announced tariffs on US imports, despite the US President’s warnings of a possible retaliatory measures. However, the response from the US side was immediate and Mr. Trump announced additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. On another front, ECB President M. Draghi is expected to deliver his speech on ECB Forum in Sintra today, where markets expect to see fresh comments on the QE program and further actions of the Bank. However, according to broad market forecasts Mr. Draghi will keep his dovish tone in line with previous rhetoric, seen on the press conference last week. Besides ECB President’s speech, investors will also pay attention to the US macroeconomic data, which will be published during the NA session.

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  • #620
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:20am Jun 20, 2018 5:20am

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Wednesday, 20 June

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and retreated to the area of 1.1570. Recall, yesterday the pair witnessed another sharp retreat on the back of dovish rhetoric of the ECB President, who said that significant monetary accommodation is still needed and the Bank will remain patient in determining the timing of the first rate hike. These comments negatively affected the pair, sending it to refresh 3-week lows on the level of 1.1531. Moreover, ongoing buying interest around the US dollar is also limiting pair’s chances for recovery this Wednesday. As for the economic events, today market’s attention will remain focused on another speech by ECB President M. Draghi on the ECB Forum in Sintra, but this time he will share a panel with Fed Chair J. Powell and other central bankers, whose comments will also be able to spark some volatility.

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