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  • #921
  • Jun 12, 2018 11:49pm Jun 12, 2018 11:49pm
Quoting suttos
Question for the group, given Brexit is now looking like a dead duck why is the GBPUSD not heading back towards its previous levels around the 1.40 mark. Is it good buying down here?
Brexit is far away so yesterday was buy the rumour and sell the fact. There is no point pricing in a brexit trade right now. The only thing that matters is potential interest rate hikes this year as it's more the short term and likely to happen.
  • #922
  • Jun 13, 2018 1:10am Jun 13, 2018 1:10am
fxviper IS CLEANED OUT.

He has lost a lot of money.

So fundamentals and news have no great value addition.

Forex trading is all about expectatins and short term yields. And every USD pair can travel 300 pips either side of your entry price and still be considered a fair price. Most traders dont have that large a stop loss which is why 99% lose money.

Forex trading is all about keeping low lots sizes and DO NOT KEEP STOP LOSSES AT ALL.

Keep a overall hidden stop of 20% and trade low sizes.

Today is FOMC. But keep a eye pasted on US 2 year yield. That yield is too high for dollar to go down. Even if it does not go dwn, the yield will pull it over some days.

So its best to stay long the dollar aagainst EUR for now.

BUT DO NOT FORGET THE FIRST RULE: NEVER TRADE BIG SIZES IN FOREX.

For a 10k account max single trade should 0.05 lots.
  • #923
  • Jun 13, 2018 6:37pm Jun 13, 2018 6:37pm
Quoting champfx2016
fxviper IS CLEANED OUT. He has lost a lot of money. So fundamentals and news have no great value addition. Forex trading is all about expectatins and short term yields. And every USD pair can travel 300 pips either side of your entry price and still be considered a fair price. Most traders dont have that large a stop loss which is why 99% lose money. Forex trading is all about keeping low lots sizes and DO NOT KEEP STOP LOSSES AT ALL. Keep a overall hidden stop of 20% and trade low sizes. Today is FOMC. But keep a eye pasted on US 2 year yield....
1 trader losses money and "fundamentals and news have no great value addition"..... could you define the term sweeping generalization for me?
  • #924
  • Jun 14, 2018 12:57am Jun 14, 2018 12:57am
Quoting champfx2016
fxviper IS CLEANED OUT. He has lost a lot of money. So fundamentals and news have no great value addition. Forex trading is all about expectatins and short term yields. And every USD pair can travel 300 pips either side of your entry price and still be considered a fair price. Most traders dont have that large a stop loss which is why 99% lose money. Forex trading is all about keeping low lots sizes and DO NOT KEEP STOP LOSSES AT ALL. Keep a overall hidden stop of 20% and trade low sizes. Today is FOMC. But keep a eye pasted on US 2 year yield....
Where to get latest update on fxviper? How do you know he is cleaned out. Last I checked his myfxbook still display an upward curve. He just keep averaging into losing trades, only a huge trend can blow him out. Markets have not trended strongly for a while so I thought he will still be sustainable...
  • #925
  • Jun 14, 2018 1:12am Jun 14, 2018 1:12am
Quoting foobar
{quote} Where to get latest update on fxviper? How do you know he is cleaned out. Last I checked his myfxbook still display an upward curve. He just keep averaging into losing trades, only a huge trend can blow him out. Markets have not trended strongly for a while so I thought he will still be sustainable...
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/NickMcDonald/fx-viper-nicks-account-trading/636169
  • #926
  • Jun 14, 2018 9:42am Jun 14, 2018 9:42am
Today's risk event was the ECB which I traded and was tricky.

The ECB announced reduction in bond buying which came across hawkish in the minutes which everyone went long but seconds later it was announced that rates will remain the same until summer next year which was a lower projection which caused EUR/USD to fall so i quickly improvised ans went tp sell and the trade was a success. I took a total 5 positions. I traded the minutes live and then closed before the start of the press conference and post conference I entered another 3 positions. The 1st position was a small loss going long. This will be more than a 100 pip profit move A few pips away from taking profit.

I also traded the Fomc minutes successfully yesterday and closed the position this morning.
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  • #927
  • Jun 14, 2018 12:40pm Jun 14, 2018 12:40pm
Quoting Samson85
Today's risk event was the ECB which I traded and was tricky. The ECB announced reduction in bond buying which came across hawkish in the minutes which everyone went long but seconds later it was announced that rates will remain the same until summer next year which was a lower projection which caused EUR/USD to fall so i quickly improvised ans went tp sell and the trade was a success. I took a total 5 positions. I traded the minutes live and then closed before the start of the press conference and post conference I entered another 3 positions....
Profit hit
  • #928
  • Jun 14, 2018 2:50pm Jun 14, 2018 2:50pm
Quoting Samson85
Today's risk event was the ECB which I traded and was tricky. The ECB announced reduction in bond buying which came across hawkish in the minutes which everyone went long but seconds later it was announced that rates will remain the same until summer next year which was a lower projection which caused EUR/USD to fall so i quickly improvised ans went tp sell and the trade was a success. I took a total 5 positions. I traded the minutes live and then closed before the start of the press conference and post conference I entered another 3 positions....
yes indeed.. a tricky rate decision today on the ECB. Very dovish on rate guidance as QE wind down was already expected and priced in.

The other thing today is the Yen.. although an risk on day, the Yen also strengthened. A probable sign of Yen divergence to interest rate expectations and QE wind down by the BOJ. It is largely speculated by traders this year. BOJ meeting overnight and I think it may be a big mover!
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #929
  • Jun 18, 2018 9:15pm Jun 18, 2018 9:15pm
I actually took this trade whilst in bed as additional news broke about trump wanting pose further tarrifs on China. I took the trade aud/jpy as Aud is very sensitive to trade wars and is also China's biggest supplier.

Morgan Stanley trade of the week was also to short aud/jpy
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  • #930
  • Jun 18, 2018 9:48pm Jun 18, 2018 9:48pm
Quoting Samson85
I actually took this trade whilst in bed as additional news broke about trump wanting pose further tarrifs on China. I took the trade aud/jpy as Aud is very sensitive to trade wars and is also China's biggest supplier. Morgan Stanley trade of the week was also to short aud/jpy {image} {image}
ya.. I took that trade too although I didn't really expect it to come this soon but eventually would had escalated. Trade wars dominates the focus these days although I think the markets are ignoring these risks more than it should. The Aussie being the proxy currency for China taking a beating whether warranted or not. I do expect China to hit back with their own tariffs again as it turning out to be a game of Chicken. I expect the Aussie & CAD to be among the weakest currency in midst of these trade wars will the JPY & CHF top performing risk off pairs.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #931
  • Jun 19, 2018 12:14am Jun 19, 2018 12:14am
Quoting Samson85
I actually took this trade whilst in bed as additional news broke about trump wanting pose further tarrifs on China. I took the trade aud/jpy as Aud is very sensitive to trade wars and is also China's biggest supplier. Morgan Stanley trade of the week was also to short aud/jpy {image} {image}

TP pretty much hit
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  • #932
  • Jun 19, 2018 1:32am Jun 19, 2018 1:32am
Just curious if everyone agree on that Fundamental beat technical ??
  • #933
  • Jun 19, 2018 2:29am Jun 19, 2018 2:29am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} ya.. I took that trade too although I didn't really expect it to come this soon but eventually would had escalated. Trade wars dominates the focus these days although I think the markets are ignoring these risks more than it should. The Aussie being the proxy currency for China taking a beating whether warranted or not. I do expect China to hit back with their own tariffs again as it turning out to be a game of Chicken. I expect the Aussie & CAD to be among the weakest currency in midst of these trade wars will the JPY & CHF top performing...
100% agree.

I am only going to be trading fresh sentiment news these days as the markets are becoming trickier. EUR/USD took 2 days to pullback and I know alot of traders got burnt. Cable as well.
  • #934
  • Jun 20, 2018 4:36am Jun 20, 2018 4:36am
So annoying for these trades to miss my TP. The news supported the bias for the short but unfortunately not enough penetration
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  • #935
  • Jun 20, 2018 4:40am Jun 20, 2018 4:40am
Quoting Samson85
So annoying for these trades to miss my TP. The news supported the bias for the short but unfortunately not enough penetration {image} {image} {image}
why would you take a long on bad news for the eurusd?
  • #936
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:27am Jun 20, 2018 5:27am
Quoting ztop
{quote} why would you take a long on bad news for the eurusd?
They are both short positions. I took both trades at around 6am knowing the speakers would have nothing positive to say!!!
  • #937
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:41am Jun 20, 2018 5:41am
Not really.

The Big Money will certainly be looking at fundamentals and taking a longer term view than non-institutional traders, but that's not to say that approach always beats technical trading - it's a non sequitur, like comparing apples with cheese.

Non-institutional traders tend generally to trade the shorter timeframes and are in trades for a shorter period of time than Big Money positions. Their aims are quite different. Having a couple of $billion earning on a carry trade is a different strategy to jumping in and out on the 1 min with $1000 capitalisation.

However, I agree, in principle, with originator's position that it makes sense, in general, to trade in the same direction as the Big Money. You can get that by looking at the daily chart and simply eyeballing the trend.

That's not to say you can't go contra the longer term trend on a sharp move and make some profits. These counter-trend movements can be very powerful and large. But they are also, more often than not, false starts and they'll eat away at your capital.
Trump is a total Cunt. Anyone who thinks Trump is great, is also a Cunt.
  • #938
  • Jun 20, 2018 6:15am Jun 20, 2018 6:15am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} They are both short positions. I took both trades at around 6am knowing the speakers would have nothing positive to say!!!
thanks! I was looking at the TP level and just assumed it was a buy order.
  • #939
  • Jun 21, 2018 7:43am Jun 21, 2018 7:43am
looking like risk off sentiment has died down a good bit. Not expecting any aggressive Yen/CHF strengthening in the near term although trade risk is still there.

The GBP caught a big surprise as the BOE seemed a bit hawkish on rates than expected. Although, we need to see better economic data to suggest sustained strengthening.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #940
  • Jun 23, 2018 11:04am Jun 23, 2018 11:04am
Quoting OMGtrader
looking like risk off sentiment has died down a good bit. Not expecting any aggressive Yen/CHF strengthening in the near term although trade risk is still there. The GBP caught a big surprise as the BOE seemed a bit hawkish on rates than expected. Although, we need to see better economic data to suggest sustained strengthening.

Very bis surprise and the same day the Phily fed data was very poor so cable benefited.

I am still not sure whether cable will be bullish for long term but there are currently entries available.

I will be trading pound vs weaker currencies, but with that said the DXY looks like it needs a break so one needs to be decisive.
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