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I challenge you to fail with this

  • #461
  • Jun 13, 2018 7:26pm Jun 13, 2018 7:26pm
Quoting TheSpoof
I have been back testing this strategy extensively for the last week or so using a programmed strategy for JForex. I have tried 5 min, 60 min, 4 hour and daily charts ...I tried trailing stops, break even levels, only trading in certain sessions, scalping, various stop losses and RR - nothing is consistent with this :-(
Thanks for the report TheSpoof. I tested extensively too with my EA and received similar results. I've done every standard time frame from M1 to Monthly. I use tick level data from TDS and I've done it with and without incorporating variable spread, slippage, and transaction costs. I've combined it with a variety of types of filters from RSI, CCI, Stochastic, and even some proprietary ones in an effort to cherry pick entries. I've tried many types of trade management such as those you mentioned above....Not a single strategy was profitable or sustainable using any of my automated approaches.

That said, it was never intended to be automated per Joseph95 but I prefer to trade with automated tools. So I wanted to look at it anyway. At this point, it doesn't look like that is going to work.

The trades that I have selected manually have worked out so far but I'm very selective. That's was the original approach Joseph suggested.
  • #462
  • Jun 13, 2018 8:15pm Jun 13, 2018 8:15pm
Quoting Hambone
{quote} Thanks for the report TheSpoof. I tested extensively too with my EA and received similar results. I've done every standard time frame from M1 to Monthly. I use tick level data from TDS and I've done it with and without incorporating variable spread, slippage, and transaction costs. I've combined it with a variety of types of filters from RSI, CCI, Stochastic, and even some proprietary ones in an effort to cherry pick entries. I've tried many types of trade management such as those you mentioned above....Not a single strategy was profitable...
Hey Hambone,
So what criteria are you using to be selective with the trades you take? The back testing has certainly shown that the candle pattern alone does not give us any sort of edge at all. I was hoping to even use it as confirmation of momentum to scalp some quick pips off the daily chart. I tested a 15 pip TP with a 30 pip SL (or SL at the signal candle as suggested) and it did very well in 2017 to now (quadrupled the account) but failed if tested from 2015 forwards so I didn't bother going back further. Maybe the pattern occurring at S&R? I think there are likely more reliable reversal patterns though.
Emotion - it steals your money.
  • #463
  • Jun 13, 2018 11:47pm Jun 13, 2018 11:47pm
Quoting TheSpoof
I have been back testing this strategy extensively for the last week or so using a programmed strategy for JForex. I have tried 5 min, 60 min, 4 hour and daily charts on GBP/USD and EUR/USD and cannot find anyway to make it consistently profitable with Type 1 trades or even with the addition of Type 2 trades (they seem to make the outcome worse). One year might be profitable and the next few years are losses - break even at best not including commissions i.e. net losses. I had some hope for this since it looked pretty good on the surface. Perhaps...
hmm, how did u backtest ? use auto trading?
  • #464
  • Jun 14, 2018 5:16am Jun 14, 2018 5:16am
Quoting TheSpoof
{quote} Hey Hambone, So what criteria are you using to be selective with the trades you take? The back testing has certainly shown that the candle pattern alone does not give us any sort of edge at all. I was hoping to even use it as confirmation of momentum to scalp some quick pips off the daily chart. I tested a 15 pip TP with a 30 pip SL (or SL at the signal candle as suggested) and it did very well in 2017 to now (quadrupled the account) but failed if tested from 2015 forwards so I didn't bother going back further. Maybe the pattern occurring...
Yes of course you have to watch price action. It definitely helps to use major and minor S&R zones. The most reliable majors for me are H4. Minors on M15, M30. If you pay attention to market structure and price action you can use this entry method with type 1 candles on M5 and be profitable. I dont know why it didnt worked for you, but maybe you give it a try again on different pairs?
I'm naturally a scalper, maybe thats why its easier to make it work for me.
GU is btw not a good pair to scalp due to its movement. Breakouts on GU are great, but on M5 i wouldnt scalp it. UJ is the most easy and save to scalp. G pairs give the quickest results but also spike hard in one candle. EU and EJ are also good to scalp.

btw can you tell us how many trades you took approx? This is an important information and helps to classify the results.

For daily candles when you draw major zones + pay attention to fundamentals and use fib on monthly, you will have all the information you need.
I cant wait to test it for at least a month straight, then I will see if it gives constantly good results.
  • #465
  • Jun 14, 2018 6:49am Jun 14, 2018 6:49am
I want to ask more experience traders about when you go break even or trailling ?
"The essence of Discipline is that there are no exceptions" - Jack Schwager
  • #466
  • Jun 14, 2018 8:00am Jun 14, 2018 8:00am
Quoting NPTrader
I want to ask more experience traders about when you go break even or trailling ?
Do you mean using strategy? Read through this thread there are replies from respected members, seems they've succeeded using this approach
  • #467
  • Jun 14, 2018 10:47am Jun 14, 2018 10:47am
When it comes to winning systems, yes, I think a highly experienced trader can produce more gains over the longer term than an automated trader. BUT, if a winning system is really good long term, then you should be able to automate it and keep it a profitable system, albeit a lower profitable one.

If a discretionary trader can make something work but a very good automated system cannot be profitable long-term whatsoever, that's not a good sign. The automated system will not ever match the pattern matching skills and intuition of a good discretionary trader; however, it never ever mentally tires, never fears and never experiences the effects of greed.

I think it takes a good (meaning, a consistently successful), discretionary trader to be able to write a good automated system from what he/she knows how to do which is profitable. On the contrary, I've seen 100's of highly capable programmers who aren't good traders come up with nothing viable because they don't know how to be successful from by their own actions in a real-time market when real money is on the line.

Forget about 80% winners and risking a 2x stop to 1x target. Forget about 70% winners and 1:1 reward to risk ratio. ALL GOOD SYSTEMS BASED ON TRENDING should be able to function near the 50/50 winners level with 1.5x to 2.0x range of reward to 1x risk ratio. Good systems are fractal in nature. A change in time frames should not alter much more than the reward to risk goals. The RATIO of that should not be impacted dramatically to yield "it works in the 5 min timeframe and daily but doesn't in the 1 min or 30 min", etc. etc.

I appreciate the efforts of those here spending their time to look at this system in fine detail.
  • #468
  • Jun 14, 2018 12:06pm Jun 14, 2018 12:06pm
Quoting CLTrader
When it comes to winning systems, yes, I think a highly experienced trader can produce more gains over the longer term than an automated trader. BUT, if a winning system is really good long term, then you should be able to automate it and keep it a profitable system, albeit a lower profitable one. If a discretionary trader can make something work but a very good automated system cannot be profitable long-term whatsoever, that's not a good sign. The automated system will not ever match the pattern matching skills and intuition of a good discretionary
trader; however, it never ever mentally tires, never fears and never experiences the effects of greed.

I think it takes a good (meaning, a consistently successful), discretionary trader to be able to write a good automated system from what he/she knows how to do which is profitable. On the contrary, I've seen 100's of highly capable programmers who aren't good traders come up with nothing viable because they don't know how to be successful from by their own actions in a real-time market when real money is on the line.

Forget about 80% winners and risking a 2x stop to 1x target. Forget about 70% winners and 1:1 reward to risk ratio. ALL GOOD SYSTEMS BASED ON TRENDING should be able to function near the 50/50 winners level with 1.5x to 2.0x range of reward to 1x risk ratio. Good systems are fractal in nature. A change in time frames should not alter much more than the reward to risk goals. The RATIO of that should not be impacted dramatically to yield "it works in the 5 min timeframe and daily but doesn't in the 1 min or 30 min", etc. etc.

I appreciate the efforts of those here spending their time to look at this system in fine detail.
And the ratio isnt impacted. On daily your min. 1:1 RR is always measured by the signal candle, for M5 the same. The RR is always the same for type 1 entrys, but on my test before, the outcome was mostly much more than 1:2 or 1:3. So the RR is not a problem here at all, no matter the TF. Of course its up to the trader what he can make of it, therefore knowledge about price action is required. I would say you can be more profitable when you scalp this method or scalp to swing.

I dont know why you think a good system has to work on every timeframe. Its in the nature of trading that one thing works on certain timeframe and dont on another. Same for this entry method. It definitely works on daily and M5, but yet I cant say if it will work for a year or a month and then the win ratio will decrease. More testing is needed.

As for EA's, if they work or not says nothing about the effectiveness of this system, because you need to know about priceation, market structure etc to make this system work like OP stated. So the EA can only be as good as the programmers trading skills.

For me its never about to find the final trick or "holy grail" like most people say. No matter how good the system is, you as a trader have to make the right choices and have to adapt to the market, if you fail the system fails too. There is no system and there will never be a system which will work without effort.
One has to see trading like a race car. Eventhough you have a race car which is fast on Daytona Raceway, doesnt mean it is fast on Monaco too. Its the traders job to make the car fast on Monaco and adjust the settings, like you have to adjust in trading with a good system everyday here and there(news, fundamentals, date etc).
That being said, the question if system x or y dont work cant be answered just by numbers or timeframes or RR. The trader has first to test it properly to find out, an EA cant do that because its limited to the programmer who is writing it.


Like I said before, to judge someones testing it would be important to know how many trades he took. You cant expect much when you take 10 trades. I trust when people here say it dont work for me, but you get a better understanding when you know how many trades in what time period someone took.
I appreciate everyone who share his experience.
  • #469
  • Jun 14, 2018 12:17pm Jun 14, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting CLTrader
When it comes to winning systems, yes, I think a highly experienced trader can produce more gains over the longer term than an automated trader. BUT, if a winning system is really good long term, then you should be able to automate it and keep it a profitable system, albeit a lower profitable one. If a discretionary trader can make something work but a very good automated system cannot be profitable long-term whatsoever, that's not a good sign. The automated system will not ever match the pattern matching skills and intuition of a good discretionary...
How can you be so sure cl trader. You may very well be right but I'm a little weary of someone who sounds over confident.
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #470
  • Jun 21, 2018 12:25pm Jun 21, 2018 12:25pm
Quoting rafael5643
{quote} How can you be so sure cl trader. You may very well be right but I'm a little weary of someone who sounds over confident.
Be as skeptical as you like. We're all strangers here and that is, in general, a healthy assumption. Your experience and yours alone through many many years of trading will lead you to the statistical trading truths I roughed out.

Actually, I am a very humble person when it comes to trading. However, there's no need for me to defend my background / expertise in trading and the mathematics of reward vs risk levels and the bounded-ness one will face in the long-term. So believe it, don't believe it. That's entirely up to you. All I know is that I am right as rain on this subject. I don't "guess" when it comes to this. It's not over-confidence to report what one considers so overwhelming in evidence as to be factual as it relates to the future prospects of one's brokerage account funds growing over time.

My only hope is that you don't have to find out the hard way...experiencing the consequences of completely ignoring what I had said, only to find out that I was right all along. If you trade within the boundaries I mentioned (these are long-term boundaries, not on a trade-by-trade basis), you are operating within a probabilistic model the markets will more easily allow you to find long-term success.

Sometimes, things are genuine. This is one of those times.
  • #471
  • Jun 22, 2018 4:32am Jun 22, 2018 4:32am
For example, daily Eurusd is bullish, and weekly is bearish, so we stay out of it? Or catch the bull first then follow the bear
  • #472
  • Jun 30, 2018 10:20pm Jun 30, 2018 10:20pm
No one posting, me either. It's hard enough for me to even find the 20 minutes this little strategy takes in the evening. Anyway, May had quite a positive account gain (I believe I had 17 trades hit target and seven hit SL), June was not good, red for the month, but, started to turn around the last week and a half and got a little back. Still ahead overall for the 2 months together. I am taking the signals blindly (D1) other than trying not to have more than 2-3 pairs with the same currency and my target is the size of the signal candle, which leaves a negative RR (when I have time, I want to go back over them and see how many would have made a 1:1 RR). I will be interested to see how July goes.

I want to see how UC opens this week. It would be my first (W1) trade, but it looks good and has harmonic confluence, structure etc.
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #473
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:40am Jul 6, 2018 2:40am
Quoting Lawnman
No one posting, me either. It's hard enough for me to even find the 20 minutes this little strategy takes in the evening. Anyway, May had quite a positive account gain (I believe I had 17 trades hit target and seven hit SL), June was not good, red for the month, but, started to turn around the last week and a half and got a little back. Still ahead overall for the 2 months together. I am taking the signals blindly (D1) other than trying not to have more than 2-3 pairs with the same currency and my target is the size of the signal candle, which leaves...
It would be nice if you post your trades with explanations....This will help me and other members and will Boost us to follow the theme. !
  • #474
  • Jul 7, 2018 5:13am Jul 7, 2018 5:13am
I just finished reading this whole thread, and reviewed the first 3 pages a couple of times, and the concept seems simple and powerful. I will be applying this to my trading, and post any results or commentaries once i get them. Thanks a lot for the input!
  • #475
  • Jul 12, 2018 4:47am Jul 12, 2018 4:47am
Quoting Joseph95
Hello guys, go on daily chart back as you can go till now and search for these type of candles: Bullish signal: false breakout/rejection of the low of the previous day, better if the shadow of the signal candle is long enough, AND THEN close ABOVE previous day high Use pending orders above current candle high if it completely engulf the previous day high. 0.02 size? 0.01 with a TP big like the signal candle, 0.01 pending order without TP, SL below the min of the pattern; It is just an idea, try your own gestion. OPPOSITE for bearish signals You...
Where's your exit strategy (i.e. TP & SL). What's your win rate? Where's your testing results? Sorry, but a strategy is far from practical without a clear and statically-proven method to define all these components.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #476
  • Edited 7:22pm Jul 14, 2018 7:09pm | Edited 7:22pm
Quoting Joseph95
Hello guys, go on daily chart back as you can go till now and search for these type of candles: Bullish signal: false breakout/rejection of the low of the previous day, better if the shadow of the signal candle is long enough, AND THEN close ABOVE previous day high Use pending orders above current candle high if it completely engulf the previous day high. 0.02 size? 0.01 with a TP big like the signal candle, 0.01 pending order without TP, SL below the min of the pattern; It is just an idea, try your own gestion. OPPOSITE for bearish signals You...
Here, I've provided a colourful collection of failures. If you need more, just let me know.

It takes you only 15 min (or less) to code an indicator to test your thesis before publishing it here on ForexFactory
Attached Images
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #477
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:46am Jul 15, 2018 2:46am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Here, I've provided a colourful collection of failures. If you need more, just let me know. It takes you only 15 min (or less) to code an indicator to test your thesis before publishing it here on ForexFactory {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

At the end of the day all systems will fail sometimes. What counts is that the system works with a reasonably high probability. Using your test indicator can you provide the stats? %wins ? IF % wins is 70 it is already a good system.
  • #478
  • Jul 20, 2018 9:18pm Jul 20, 2018 9:18pm
Quoting shev72
{quote} IF % wins is 70 it is already a good system.
If the win % is indeed 70, you have taken off through the stratosphere, surpassing the elite of the elite and have joined the dark forces of the mystical realm!!

Since, all top professional traders are around 50-55%, I might add, are making a killing in the market!!
Even at 30% success, your average serious trader can do quite well in Forex....how you might ask, simple, position sizing and the risk to reward ratio!!

Cheers.
  • #479
  • Jul 31, 2018 2:17am Jul 31, 2018 2:17am
Quoting ZapPow
{quote} If the win % is indeed 70, you have taken off through the stratosphere, surpassing the elite of the elite and have joined the dark forces of the mystical realm!! Since, all top professional traders are around 50-55%, I might add, are making a killing in the market!! Even at 30% success, your average serious trader can do quite well in Forex....how you might ask, simple, position sizing and the risk to reward ratio!! Cheers.
Simply NOT....I coded system with more...but the r:r was only 1:4....so we had loss at the end....
Greetings from the stratosphere!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Vucking good EA coder... https://t.ly/AZjRM
  • #480
  • Edited 3:02am Jul 31, 2018 2:37am | Edited 3:02am
By the way I had here 3 guys who were interested to test strategies...skype is a pain in the ass so many of my contacts & groups are away...
Who is interested in this coded strategy?
https://www.forexstrategiesresources...nal-fx-system/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Vucking good EA coder... https://t.ly/AZjRM
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