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Pivot Trading

  • #19,821
  • Edited 10:43pm Jun 9, 2018 10:07pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting pgr45za
FYI, a.k.a. NeilGroom. {image}
I didn't know guys existence until you posted this.What's idiotic is I had no interaction with the guy hence putting me on ignore is pointless.
Do I care? Not really not even a hair.
As saying goes Fly is attracted to shit.Look at his buddy club and you know who he is....
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,822
  • Jun 9, 2018 10:51pm Jun 9, 2018 10:51pm
As saying goes Fly is attracted to shit.Look at his buddy club and you know who he is....

Now THAT is funny!!
  • #19,823
  • Jun 9, 2018 11:04pm Jun 9, 2018 11:04pm
Weekly analysis

Mon 11/06/18

GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% vs -0.1%

Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair

Tue

Trump-Kim Summit: A successful meeting will be positive for markets and could send the safe-haven Japanese yen lower, while a failure could weigh on markets and boost the safe-haven yen.

NJ and AJ worth looking at

GBP
Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% vs 2.6%
Claimant Count Change 11.3K vs 31.2K
Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.2%
Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair

USD
CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%
Core CPI m/m0.1% vs 0.1%
Believe nothing could move USD violently till rate announcement

Wed

AUD
RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Base on AUD GDP data last week, there is strength in its.

EA will be good to monitor and short if the price goes to key zone

GBP
CPI y/y 2.4% vs 2.4%

USD
PPI m/m 0.3% 0.1%
Core PPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2%

Thur

USD Big Day
FOMC Economic Projections
FOMC Statement
Federal Funds Rate 2.0% vs 1.75%
FOMC Press Conference
Core Retail Sales m/m 0.3% vs 0.3%
Retail Sales m/m 0.4% vs 0.3%
Unemployment Claims

AUD
Employment Change 19.2K vs 22.6K
Unemployment Rate
AC is reaching strong structure after recent sell down, it will be good to build long position(with + swap)

GBP
Retail Sales m/m 0.5% vs 1.6%

EUR
Main Refinancing Rate
ECB Press Conference

The ECB may indeed announce the reduction and end of bond buying, but the details are somewhat up in the air. A clear commitment to end QE with an end date could boost the euro while a more vague statement about future moves could weigh on it. If Draghi only says that a discussion was held but does not make any announcements, the drop could be sharper.

The thing could happen: USD may be pump up by MM strongly and dump slightly before or after rate announce. So key thing is to look out for A+ setup for the Major pair AU, UC, UJ , GU and EU.

Fri

JPY
BOJ Policy Rate
Monetary Policy Statement
BOJ Press Conference

The Bank of Japan is not about to exit its stimulus anytime soon. Recent inflation figures have been downbeat and curbed any hopes for exiting stimulus in the Fiscal Year 2019. The current interest rate of -0.10% and the pledge to keep 10-year bond-yields at 0% are likely to remain intact.

Focus on JPY cross pair
  • #19,824
  • Jun 10, 2018 12:06am Jun 10, 2018 12:06am
Quoting suirad0
last AJ closed for +123, total batch +403 {image}
Can you share that pivot indicator, please.
  • #19,825
  • Edited 12:37am Jun 10, 2018 12:12am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting Newhire
Weekly analysis Mon 11/06/18 GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% vs -0.1% Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair Tue Trump-Kim Summit: A successful meeting will be positive for markets and could send the safe-haven Japanese yen lower, while a failure could weigh on markets and boost the safe-haven yen. NJ and AJ worth looking at GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.5% vs 2.6% Claimant Count Change 11.3K vs 31.2K Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.2% Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair USD CPI m/m 0.2% vs...
Just a little constructive feedback
Point you are doing the calendar is not guessing what you are going to do.Its developing awareness what's coming up and what may unfold and you taking advantage.
"GBP
Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% vs -0.1%

Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair"

Now why would you avoid GU..? Suppose it prints really green and GU goes north.Rate decision is on Weds.Why would you not take the trade?Could spike 50-70pips? I am just Little baffled.You repeat same throughout.
If GU goes down after green data that means every major is going down even faster...Not likely to occur.

Try not boxing yourself in be open to take advantage what market gives you

You notice my analyses is always open ended meaning I simply don't know outcome before occurring but I have a plan either way.

Also you have to take consideration where pair is technically.Major Support? Previous week decline and this week correction more likely to occur?
We saw last week major correction on Yen crosses which followed major previous Yen domination.
This things have to be taken in consideration along with fundamentals.

Look at CJ chart.How would you trade it next week.Would you buy it? or sell it or wait it out. How does AUD NZD CAD have in common.If AUD is gaining would that not make NZD and the CAD stronger as well? Yes it would because they are commodity pairs one lifts up the others.
When Euro gains usually GBP gains as well.I am going on tangent now but I realized I look at lot of things intuitively that just comes with experience...sometimes hard to convey nuisances of trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPYH4.png Size: 41 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,826
  • Jun 10, 2018 3:32am Jun 10, 2018 3:32am
Thanks Davit

Your posts are always insightful.. Something new to learn with every post. Been following this thread and this system for more than six months now, subscribed now.

Thanks again.
  • #19,827
  • Jun 10, 2018 5:26am Jun 10, 2018 5:26am
Davit.
You re talking about G crosses. I d like strongly buy gbp nzd or gbp aud. What do you suggest? The first or second?
Thx a lot for your answer.
  • #19,828
  • Jun 10, 2018 5:33am Jun 10, 2018 5:33am
Just finished my News calendar for Week 24 of 2018. I believe this week would be the most volatile week until now.

Monday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Thursday-Friday
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Best regards
  • #19,829
  • Jun 10, 2018 8:11am Jun 10, 2018 8:11am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Just a little constructive feedback Point you are doing the calendar is not guessing what you are going to do.Its developing awareness what's coming up and what may unfold and you taking advantage. "GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.3% vs -0.1% Avoid GU in view USD rate announcement. Keep an eye on EG pair" Now why would you avoid GU..? Suppose it prints really green and GU goes north.Rate decision is on Weds.Why would you not take the trade?Could spike 50-70pips? I am just Little baffled.You repeat same throughout. If GU goes down after...

Hi Davit ,

Thanks a lot for the feedback, will definitely work on it and improve the way i look at thing. Great week ahead cheer...
  • #19,830
  • Jun 10, 2018 9:14am Jun 10, 2018 9:14am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Sniperdebt You have not posted since March.I hope everything is well.You are missed here.You are truly talented trader and I hope you come back.
Hi Davit,

Quoting sniperdebt
{quote} 2018 just started, but Q1 goal is more than reached. Start with small {Patience, Discipline, Persistence} every day over time, will deliver GREAT profits. {image}
I have moved to the higher time frame lately after Q1 FY 2018, have a wonderful family that I enjoy spending time with and enjoy many hobbies that keep me busy enjoying life. Less time on the screen, less stress, less mistake . Most probably i'll posting regularly after Q2 FY 2018.

AUDCAD :-
Monthly,Weekly - P.A still bearish, ranging since 2013
Daily,H4,H1 - P.A starting show sign of weakness

Happy trading to all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD_Daily.jpg Size: 964 KB
  • #19,831
  • Jun 10, 2018 9:16am Jun 10, 2018 9:16am
Quoting voty
Thank you all for the feedback and PMs about Pivot_Voty indicator, I'm really glad you like. Keeps me motivated to produce some other stuff in the future. Got some feedback to add more information about other pivots into the indicator, but that's not planned at least not for now. Same as Davit I like clean charts and too many information will be causing a distraction from the method used in this thread... Just one notice. I would be careful on Monday as I've no idea how will indicator update pivot levels, the fix was done only on Friday....
Voty, since Oanda has changed its time factor, I had to change my time from -5 to -2 to keep my pivots anywhere close to Davits.They are fine from that aspect ,but now the Voty alerts are way off and need correcting. Could you help with this? Thanks. Bob.
  • #19,832
  • Jun 10, 2018 10:24am Jun 10, 2018 10:24am
Quoting sniperdebt
{quote} Hi Davit, {quote} I have moved to the higher time frame lately after Q1 FY 2018, have a wonderful family that I enjoy spending time with and enjoy many hobbies that keep me busy enjoying life. Less time on the screen, less stress, less mistake . Most probably i'll posting regularly after Q2 FY 2018. AUDCAD :- Monthly,Weekly - P.A still bearish, ranging since 2013 Daily,H4,H1 - P.A starting show sign of weakness Happy trading to all. {image}
Thank you friend for responding! I understand spending time with family.friends and hobbies and I have similar needs myself wanted to paint more and visit more places on a motorcycle.
Wish you the best and you know you are welcome to drop a chart any time you like!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,833
  • Jun 10, 2018 10:38am Jun 10, 2018 10:38am
AN likely drop to 750-700 Something that's on my radar
refrain asking about pivots these are from last week market is closed now
https://www.actionforex.com/markets/...-pivot-points/
right on the money
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDDaily.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 6 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,834
  • Jun 10, 2018 10:44am Jun 10, 2018 10:44am
Drop EA to 54 would be spectacular. I am bullish on the Euro
Love to build longs to 57+
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH4.png Size: 37 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,835
  • Jun 10, 2018 10:44am Jun 10, 2018 10:44am
prepared to squeeze some pips during australian morning out of nzdusd and nzdjpy.
  • #19,836
  • Jun 10, 2018 10:57am Jun 10, 2018 10:57am
Its time to discuss some advance ideas.As you guys already know and I mentioned many times my pivots align with harmonics most the time but its important to see certain patterns repeating and you be aware.

I often enter on dips and rallies towards greater possible trend direction
Lets look at EA in more detail

AS you can see smart direction is buying the dips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily.png Size: 62 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,837
  • Jun 10, 2018 11:02am Jun 10, 2018 11:02am
my demo trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYM30.png Size: 44 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM30.png Size: 43 KB
  • #19,838
  • Jun 10, 2018 11:05am Jun 10, 2018 11:05am
Without overwhelming with too many patterns just simple shape is enough for now.I basically use this a lot over and over

Often corrections fall right on pivots.Look at pattern and think where the pivots are.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 13 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,839
  • Jun 10, 2018 11:18am Jun 10, 2018 11:18am
Quoting dogdays713
https://youtu.be/AuzH0uuRSE4
I find in painting when you mix too many colors you get grey mud and no color standing out.
Try to get better and master one method and trust me it does not matter which one but master 1 Not saying his views are not relevant but sometimes it can confuse and even derail your ability to place a trade.


Are you going to react to pivot R61 when clearly PA going south or you are going to read COT report and worry what hedge funds are planning...etc etc

stay focused

below is my April 1st to date 2months and 1week results without reading single COT report
I bet every hedge fund would dream to have this kind of return
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #19,840
  • Jun 10, 2018 11:44am Jun 10, 2018 11:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I find in painting when you mix too many colors you get grey mud and no color standing out. Try to get better and master one method and trust me it does not matter which one but master 1 Not saying his views are not relevant but sometimes it can confuse and even derail your ability to place a trade. Are you going to react to pivot R61 when clearly PA going south or you are going to read COT report and worry what hedge funds are planning...etc etc stay focused below is my April 1st to date 2months and 1week results without reading...
point taken, I have seen too many winning trades with this system, to disagree.

thank you!
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