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Success with Martingale & Hedge - Possible?

  • #121
  • Jun 6, 2018 5:44am Jun 6, 2018 5:44am
Quoting COGSx86
The GRID: Grid systems thrive on price volatility, but when the market trends and trends hard the GRID system will fail time and time again. Hence why the markets refusal to venture down the GRID path. So how then can a GRID system overcome this? Simple increase the GRID steps, well why not 300, 500, 800 etc? Easy because you would make 10$ a week. So how then can the GRID adapt to the markets movement? One concept is using a low value ATR for determining the percentiles of the market, you would want your GRID to be above the 50th percentile, for...
its nice to see another fellow grid lover givings great explainations. thank you for your effort.

i agree with your concept here. been doing some live trading using demo account using different grid EAs , most of them have similar designs (duh. gid arent complex, but trading it will be !) , one important findings i conclude will be --- THERE IS NO UNIVERSAL Grid range/Set/setup. the market moves like a band expand and contract, so your setup should be adapting this , like since 20th april EUro USD fuck up countless martingale and grid systems, due to the aggressive yet uncorrective wave. My question to myself was, how am i going to survive this ? using 250points grid step? yeah that would do but shitty profits and long dragging grid hard to close up in normal times.

one more thing, in this grid business, you are too late to realise that you are so fucked. by the time you wake up in the morning and open mt4 you are at step 12 or above you know you are screwed and nothing you can do about it. i have studied hedging methods too, and those arent really helping when your Drawdown is at >70%, you just dont have enuff equity to keep it afloat for next few wave.

so 100% automatic trading is quite near impossible in my eye, we need to have manual interventions , adjusting the grid step to the market range, and try to follow the trend , for example, when the big TF is moving upward bias, do not let the sell order stack up too much until too dangerous or painful to cutloss. my personal choice is going long only in this situation but the profit will be much much less... in case some still havnt realise, the profit of a martingale / grid is related to the drawdown incurred, if you have like 0.50 total open you surely will have much more profit but endure the sufferings as well.

Trading martingale is viable and possible, just that not much people has the time , discipline , effort and patience. manage the risk. manage the trade. manage your exposure. stay alive...
  • #122
  • Jun 6, 2018 6:23am Jun 6, 2018 6:23am
Quoting hamidesigner
{quote} Yes you are right . i think the problem is because of Grid distance Value.
That's not the problem. 20 pips is a safe distance for EURUSD (tested many times). However another recent popular feature of "Candle Close" can be added as well. Instead of fixed pips distance, a trade will be placed at the close of candle (at current time frame of chart)


Quoting gem.stocks
You SAID 'Selection of time frame doesn't matter al all'. It matters a LOT and applies to ANY EA system not just Grid system..{quote}
Please read my post again. I referred to only EA available in first post. For this EA, time frame doesn't matter at all. Yes there are many other GRID EA's available on this forum which depends on TF. Maybe we will add candle close grid feature in new version, then Time Frame will matter definitely.
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  • #123
  • Jun 6, 2018 6:28am Jun 6, 2018 6:28am
Quoting COGSx86
The biggest drivers of a GRID system are the GRID itself, the TP points, Breakeven device, and of course the hedging aggressiveness. I'm an avid hedge trader who has a fairly power device for the manual GRID/ Hedge trading (5% manual - 95% auto), so hopefully my input can help.
Agree...
Grid and Martingale work perfect in such kind of EA's; important thing is to timely hedge the cycle to avoid roller coaster death trade cycle. I succeeded in manual hedging so far, trying to automate this. Selection of hedge level and trailing stop are important for that.

Quoting COGSx86
Now how can the EA adapt to what I listed above? Stay Tuned!
Lets see... after further discussion.... maybe things will be more clear.
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  • #124
  • Edited 7:56am Jun 6, 2018 7:12am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting COGSx86
The GRID: Grid systems thrive on price volatility, but when the market trends and trends hard the GRID system will fail time and time again. Hence why the markets refusal to venture down the GRID path. So how then can a GRID system overcome this? Simple increase the GRID steps, well why not 300, 500, 800 etc? Easy because you would make 10$ a week. So how then can the GRID adapt to the markets movement? One concept is using a low value ATR for determining the percentiles of the market, you would want your GRID to be above the 50th percentile, for...
You have pointed out very crucial points for a pure grid system. I have seen such discussion in a grid thread as well. Don't know what was the outcome in grid, however same concept I tried with Recovery Zone system (reducing multiplier and to close death trades cycle at break even) but failed miserably on real account. Many ideas has already been discussed on FF (ATR - ADR- Trend detectors etc) but still no one found the mystery solution. (Maybe few found and left the forum without informing )

I had spend more than a year in all SLLS (stop loss less strategies) and what I learned that none of these can be successful alone unless you use them combine. I am working on a system, you can say "GRAHM" which is combination of all these SLLS. (Grid / Recovery Zone / Anti-Martingale / Hedge / Martingale). All of these will make a lethal combination. This ideal System should work in all market conditions.

*no usage of ATR/ADR
*no use of any indicator
*no need to identify trend or range zones
*all SLLS active all the time (more or less)
*no entry, exit rules
*will only find TP levels
*SL level will shift work from one engine to another (hand shakes)

Possible? I believe yes...
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  • #125
  • Jun 6, 2018 7:16am Jun 6, 2018 7:16am
Quoting yonnie
"timmy" is somebody who traded grids for years. but going with the trend with stop orders, but no multipliers or hedging. his yearly return was between 25-50%, the average being 35%. he explains how he trades in the thread Piggy in the Middle or something like that for anybody interested.
Thanks friend for suggesting a thread. Will check and let you know if we can get something from there.

Quoting kaizerd
i think it is better to add minimum gap on this case. dear admin, i hope you can provide me the new version of the ea for improving the engine and lesser drawdown. i have sent you an email from { email address deleted by staff }. i am also a fans of grid ea
Thanks friend,
You can change grid distance in setting and play with various settings in back testing or demo. If you have ideas to improve engine or to reduce drawdown then kindly share with us. Thanks

Quoting basmanpro
interested, i love trading with no indicator, thus, this is what i search that can combined martingale between grid and hedging but can you share source mq4 file, and then can take more profits from trading
Thanks friend for liking the EA. Current EA is combination of only Martingale and hedge. Hedge will start only after given level. Mq4 file will not give you extra profit unless you bring some genuine ideas to improve the code. Thanks

Quoting mercilez
{quote} its nice to see another fellow grid lover givings great explainations. thank you for your effort. i agree with your concept here. been doing some live trading using demo account using different grid EAs , most of them have similar designs (duh. gid arent complex, but trading it will be !) , one important findings i conclude will be --- THERE IS NO UNIVERSAL Grid range/Set/setup. the market moves like a band expand and contract, so your setup should be adapting this , like since 20th april EUro USD fuck up countless martingale and grid systems,...
Hi Friend, You have briefly summarized the facts.
If you use conservative settings (higher distance / low multiplier) then you will have more chances to survive spikes or roller coaster death sequence (mostly happens every quarter) but will have very low daily, weekly, monthly profits. If you use aggressive settings then you will have good daily, weekly, monthly profits unless you will be trapped in death sequence and will lose all your profits and deposits as well.

Quoting mercilez
{quote} Trading martingale is viable and possible, just that not much people has the time , discipline , effort and patience. manage the risk. manage the trade. manage your exposure. stay alive
Best line I have read today.... cheers
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  • #126
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 6, 2018 9:40am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting COGSx86
Grid systems thrive on price volatility, but when the market trends and trends hard the GRID system will fail time and time again.
I think it is the opposite: A classical grid is comprised of buy-stops above the price, and sell-stops below the price, stacked at i.e. fixed distances; in long trends ever more orders on one side of the grid will be triggered and so the gains grow non-linear. However, in ranging markets this does not work, as both sides of the grid may be activated, and so going nowhere, then swaps will kill it.

So, in trending situation, one would suspend the reversal trading system and deploy a grid; in range one would do the opposite. Range or trend can be gauged from volume: In range, volume is low; in trend, volume breaks and stays above in-range volumes.
Return To Disorder
  • #127
  • Jun 8, 2018 10:37pm Jun 8, 2018 10:37pm
Quoting yonnie
{quote} could you explain grid distance/multiplier/ATR/TP etc a bit further? so price is 1.1500: sell 1 lot 1.1500, sell x lot 1.1700, sell y lot 1.1900 etc.?
Sorry for the delay.


Ok this concept works with ATR percentile, based on the ATR value of 1. This all can be programmed with the EA. I personally do it manually, by placing the value into my EA to avoid the spikes. So in this case the EA would determine the percentile of lets say 50%. In the screeenshot below this gives us a value of .188. So if one candle moves 188 points the EA would avoid taking an order until we get a reversal candle, or the following candles ATR value drops below the percentile or if price retraces to the entry point. Then if price continues to make an aggressive move higer the EA avoids taking a trade. It could also be programmed at this point the EA hedges the position and enters in the direction of the aggressive move.

In the following examples the GRID is set to .175 for GRID steps. In the first shot we see price move aggressively, and the EA ends up taking 8 orders(please see below) With my EA I have a overlap which then kicks into reduce the drawdown, looking to breakeven with the order furthest away from current price. This can be seen in the 2nd screenshot. Side note when the Overlap orders start the TP is reduced, depending on input. This can be changed of course.

In the third screenshot (please view), we have the orders spaced apart, based on the prices aggressive move. This results in 5 orders taken with higher profits and less risk on the EA. And in the 4th screenshot we have the positions closed at roughly the same position. You will notice in the top right corner with the 2nd and 4th screenshot the profit. With the ATR spaced GRID the EA was able to accumulate 7.3% more in profit with less of a drawdown. In this example the multiplier was not adjusted.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: grid1.png Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: grid4.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: grid2.png Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: grid3.png Size: 36 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #128
  • Jun 8, 2018 11:16pm Jun 8, 2018 11:16pm
Next up, TP points:

Determining your TP point is first based on 1) the number of orders and distance you allow your EA to travel, 2) Price movements aggressiveness during the opening of the orders, 3) where price is within the HTF low to high.

Number of orders and distance your EA will travel before going broke.

Each GRIDs step requires an adjustment with TP, depending on spacing. If your GRId can handle a 2000 point move with only a 300 point retracement I think your golden. But again your profits would be not worth the risk, IMO. So lets start with an example. (Im big on examples, not as good with theory explanations).

With my Ea I use 11 orders. I have this calculated out on my a spreadsheet to ensure the EA can handle the drawdown. I will provide that later. With my Ea, I have 7 orders based on the first GRID and, and the following orders based on the 2nd GRID, with a higher multiplier. Grid spacing is 175 and 85

This allows my current EA to travel 139 pips, (with no retracements). The part is determining where to place the TP, should it be based on the percentage of the overall price movement the EA can handle?

Or should the TP be placed according to the where the first order is in relation to the current trend, the previous s/d zone, should we use a trailing stop?

Well here is how I do it. We first use the previous high/low, with a slight adjustment in favour of being closer to the opening position (market isnt perfect). If price moves aggressively into the area the TP can be easily adjusted, and should be. But let us also consider price has broken the previos down trend, this will more then certain allow price to retrace to what? 38.1, 50 etc? This is where the opposing side of the GRID needs to be considered for if we were to take the opposing order (in this case a sell) could the EA handle if price moved to the previous high? In this example my EA would just be out of reach if price moved in a straight line.

In the second screenshot we have allowed price to continue for the retrace. Which gives us more then enough room for the EA to handle 970 point straight line move.


Oh look priced moved in a straight line, and we gave the EA more then enough room to handle this aggressive move. TP adjust according to this price action being reduced, to ensure a quicker close of the positions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GIRD5.jpg Size: 163 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: GRID7.jpg Size: 146 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GRID8.jpg Size: 179 KB
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #129
  • Jun 9, 2018 4:52am Jun 9, 2018 4:52am
Quoting COGSx86
Next up, TP points: Determining your TP point is first based on 1) the number of orders and distance you allow your EA to travel, 2) Price movements aggressiveness during the opening of the orders, 3) where price is within the HTF low to high. Number of orders and distance your EA will travel before going broke. Each GRIDs step requires an adjustment with TP, depending on spacing. If your GRId can handle a 2000 point move with only a 300 point retracement I think your golden. But again your profits would be not worth the risk, IMO. So lets start...
this closing method is brilliant, i've seen this before somewhere else but never seen people code it into EA, does your EA auto try to close the furthest order (1st order) or you did it manual? this will definately help to close up the grid easier, arghh you are teasing me so badly.... :'( hope you can privately share this with me , im eager to test it from 2015 to 2018 see if it works
  • #130
  • Jun 9, 2018 11:46am Jun 9, 2018 11:46am
Quoting COGSx86
Next up, TP points: Determining your TP point is first based on 1) the number of orders and distance you allow your EA to travel, 2) Price movements aggressiveness during the opening of the orders, 3) where price is within the HTF low to high. Number of orders and distance your EA will travel before going broke. Each GRIDs step requires an adjustment with TP, depending on spacing. If your GRId can handle a 2000 point move with only a 300 point retracement I think your golden. But again your profits would be not worth the risk, IMO. So lets start...
Hi
From your pictures it looks that in 1 screenshot the 2 grid are in the same direction and on another screenshot the 2 grids are in opposite direction.
So I didn't understood how your system works and it keep the DD low.
Please post you spreadsheet when you can to understand the MM and the logic.
Thanks
  • #131
  • Jun 9, 2018 3:39pm Jun 9, 2018 3:39pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi From your pictures it looks that in 1 screenshot the 2 grid are in the same direction and on another screenshot the 2 grids are in opposite direction. So I didn't understood how your system works and it keep the DD low. Please post you spreadsheet when you can to understand the MM and the logic. Thanks

Thats the overlap feature closing the first order in the sequence with the last order. This reduces drawdown.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #132
  • Jun 10, 2018 12:12am Jun 10, 2018 12:12am
Quoting COGSx86
Next up, TP points: Determining your TP point is first based on 1) the number of orders and distance you allow your EA to travel, 2) Price movements aggressiveness during the opening of the orders, 3) where price is within the HTF low to high. Number of orders and distance your EA will travel before going broke. Each GRIDs step requires an adjustment with TP, depending on spacing. If your GRId can handle a 2000 point move with only a 300 point retracement I think your golden. But again your profits would be not worth the risk, IMO. So lets start...

Did you post the COG Grid?
  • #133
  • Jun 10, 2018 12:15am Jun 10, 2018 12:15am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} You have pointed out very crucial points for a pure grid system. I have seen such discussion in a grid thread as well. Don't know what was the outcome in grid, however same concept I tried with Recovery Zone system (reducing multiplier and to close death trades cycle at break even) but failed miserably on real account. Many ideas has already been discussed on FF (ATR - ADR- Trend detectors etc) but still no one found the mystery solution. (Maybe few found and left the forum without informing ) I had spend more than a year in all SLLS...

Good Work. But it still doesnt handle May 2017 period. Why expiry date, as you used to be opposed to expiry of EAs earlier.
  • #134
  • Jun 10, 2018 12:16am Jun 10, 2018 12:16am
Quoting cdsaa
{quote} Did you post the COG Grid?

If your interested, hit me up on skype: COGSx86
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #135
  • Jun 10, 2018 2:11am Jun 10, 2018 2:11am
Quoting cdsaa
{quote} Good Work. But it still doesnt handle May 2017 period. Why expiry date, as you used to be opposed to expiry of EAs earlier.
Kashifnawaz bhai,

it has good potential,

I have full version of Tick Data Suite. have tried on EurUSD - changing multiple settings, it still not going past May 2017 period where movement is about 200-300 pips.

What settings did you use to go past that period.

And I believe you might have addressed that in your new version. Ofcourse 2 engine logic which you have been pushing in now has been done. well done.
  • #136
  • Jun 15, 2018 5:13pm Jun 15, 2018 5:13pm
Hello KashifNawaz
Could you share the file gowithflow.mt4 ? I will be grateful for that. Thanks

I wish you many pips
  • #137
  • Jul 2, 2018 11:40am Jul 2, 2018 11:40am
New file of same version is uploaded in first post. Only Expiry date is extended till Dec 31, 2019 (in case if someone is using this on real account)
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  • #138
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:25pm Jul 2, 2018 12:25pm
Hi Kashif
Long time not seeing you around.
Hope everything is going well.

Is there any further development of your strategy or money management?
I remember you mentioned sometime ago that you were able to reduce drastically the DD but after that more news.
Please let us know.
Thanks
  • #139
  • Jul 4, 2018 1:52am Jul 4, 2018 1:52am
Hello Kashif,
I don't know if you had time to check your email. I wrote you in private asking for a License code for the new version because the Metatrader Strategy Tester issue the attached message.
Many thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kashif.jpg Size: 26 KB
  • #140
  • Jul 4, 2018 4:56am Jul 4, 2018 4:56am
Quoting cdsaa
{quote} Good Work. But it still doesnt handle May 2017 period. Why expiry date, as you used to be opposed to expiry of EAs earlier.
Did you use default setting? Also what was leverage of your account? Better to backtest on real data. On another note, we cannot totally rely on back testing or demo trading only unless tried on real account. When I was opposed to expiry dates?

Quoting cdsaa
{quote} Kashifnawaz bhai, it has good potential, I have full version of Tick Data Suite. have tried on EurUSD - changing multiple settings, it still not going past May 2017 period where movement is about 200-300 pips. What settings did you use to go past that period. And I believe you might have addressed that in your new version. Ofcourse 2 engine logic which you have been pushing in now has been done. well done.
I used default setting and mentioned in first post the method I used to backtest. If you have full version tick data suite then your results maybe more accurate compare to mine. However I am not relying on this current version as spike in price will result in huge DD. Will contact you to backtest Ver 2.

Quoting Suturb
Hello KashifNawaz Could you share the file gowithflow.mt4 ? I will be grateful for that. Thanks I wish you many pips
Mq4 file will not give you extra profit unless you bring some genuine ideas to improve the code. Thanks
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