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  • #861
  • Jun 5, 2018 2:46am Jun 5, 2018 2:46am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi rhsfx my friend, what i am talking about is the USDX (the market wheel) session being bullish in the explanation in the E/U H1 chart, in turn that makes the E/U move bearish as you correctly state. regards Phil p.s... i should of put 'bullish USDX session' in M5 i guess, sorry for the confusion, but do feel free to ask anything along the way as i am dyslexic so do make mistakes like that along the way when labeling thing.
oh s..., I am sorry... as you see, there's a lot to learn for me
If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen...
  • #862
  • Jun 5, 2018 3:35am Jun 5, 2018 3:35am
Quoting rhsfx
{quote} oh s..., I am sorry... as you see, there's a lot to learn for me
Hi rhsfx

we all start knowing very little, it is long journey my friend, as FTI says it is marathon not a sprint.

no need to be sorry it is good you are asking questions to clarify things, that way you will not end up going down so many wrong paths and wasting your learning time.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #863
  • Jun 5, 2018 3:39am Jun 5, 2018 3:39am
E/U trade.... when things do not go as planned you are better off reducing risk and try to find a window for escape.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #864
  • Jun 5, 2018 8:20am Jun 5, 2018 8:20am
There was head and shoulder on EU. I know you can't base your entry/trade on just that, you still have to do the dance.
Your journal is clear and concise. I can't always give clear reason why I enter my trades sometimes. Sometimes, It's just feel.

When you trade in realtime, do you have a clear picture in your head, as you dance a long?
When U allow your emotions to dictate your decisions, U make bad decision
  • #865
  • Edited 9:43am Jun 5, 2018 9:32am | Edited 9:43am
Quoting SolidSnake-
There was head and shoulder on EU. I know you can't base your entry/trade on just that, you still have to do the dance. Your journal is clear and concise. I can't always give clear reason why I enter my trades sometimes. Sometimes, It's just feel. When you trade in realtime, do you have a clear picture in your head, as you dance a long?

Hi SolidSnake-

Welcome.

Yes, I always know my basic plan for any trade I start, I have through experience found that if it does not start and continue to do roughly what I suspect, I am better off out, I am if you go through my posts on TAF and here in my journal well practiced in very deep recovery 1000-1500pips, meaning I can get myself out of most situations that I put myself in but just because i can recover a trade that is not always the best thing to do nor is it wise to wait it out until you have no choice, taking a very small loss or breakeven after a trade is considered no longer valid I have found is a far better way of trading, what I do or do not miss after I am out is of no consequence, we cannot win every battle but we can have a strategy that puts us beyond defeat (AOW).

As for patterns, they are there one minute and gone or mutated the next, I much prefer to use the MPS, waves and impulses with the current buyers/sellers info in the bars for my basic analyses, analyses should be done in the higher frames for a directional view of the current situation, trading/finding entries is then done in the lower frames. we all find own ways of doing it in the end but the core TAF basis is what we all have/use in common.

Today on E/U I suspected either a quick drop and bear continuation or for the MM’s to first run the stops/orders above the Asian session, this was playing out nicely until we got a second stop/order run, I did not expect this to happen especially after the bears tried to create the new low after the stop/order run, the trade was then subject to re-evaluation, as it had created new lower highs and higher highs in the trading time frame, I finally decided that I was better off out as this was a bullish clue to the action now, but everything and anything in the charts can mutate as this then did and continued to drop, my decisions are always based on ‘best outcome’ for my account (the state…again AOW)….. my personal wishes and bias for any trade do not get taken into account, this means i must trade without fear, greed or ego.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #866
  • Jun 5, 2018 9:33pm Jun 5, 2018 9:33pm
again after the fact now the chart is filled we can clearly see why my E/U trade yesterday did not behave in the orderly manner as i expected it to..

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #867
  • Jun 5, 2018 9:50pm Jun 5, 2018 9:50pm
G/U..... leaving e/u today not happy with the action i see there.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #868
  • Jun 5, 2018 10:20pm Jun 5, 2018 10:20pm
so below i have two different brokers, (they ALL do this), we can not rely on 'candle reads' and this is just one reason, that is why i think in terms of buyers/sellers bars/moves instead, this is an individual broker running the stops and why i do not often use stops myself..

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #869
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:36pm Jun 5, 2018 11:36pm
G/U trade.....

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #870
  • Jun 6, 2018 1:18am Jun 6, 2018 1:18am
G/U trade..... clearly there is problem between me and the market as this is my second attempt and i am way off the mark again.... calling it a day now.

this is what scouts are for and very good at.... listen to them.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #871
  • Jun 6, 2018 1:40am Jun 6, 2018 1:40am
Quoting phil13
G/U trade..... clearly there is problem between me and the market as this is my second attempt and i am way off the mark again....

Hi my friend - I am not too sure either - ECB news out there too - for games? Scout is truly for feel good lesson for all. Thanks for your charts.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #872
  • Jun 6, 2018 2:24am Jun 6, 2018 2:24am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Hi my friend - I am not too sure either - ECB news out there too - for games? Scout is truly for feel good lesson for all. Thanks for your charts. Alex

Hi Alex

Hope you are well my friend.

Just not with it or ‘feeling’ it today, I did see the news but thanks for the head up, to me no more interest rate hikes for euro for a long time and the supposed intention of rate hikes for the usd should of sent E/U down and that should have also affected to some extent G/U, as we can see it is just not happening ATM, either I am wrong or there are some big guns in the market, either way I would rather stay away today now I have lost two scouts in a row and the fact that they were nowhere near in line with the action says to me I have a problem with my read/feel today….. it is just the ‘best outcome’ thing to do for my account (the state) today.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #873
  • Jun 6, 2018 2:27am Jun 6, 2018 2:27am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex Hope you are well my friend. Just not with it or ‘feeling’ it today, I did see the news but thanks for the head up, to me no more interest rate hikes for euro for a long time and the supposed intention of rate hikes for the usd should of sent E/U down and that should have also affected to some extent G/U, as we can see it is just not happening ATM, either I am wrong or there are some big guns in the market, either way I would rather stay away today now I have lost two scouts in a row and the fact that they were nowhere near in line...
Yeh I am not sure what they are trying to do - send it long to send it short - games afoot tho

thanks again

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #874
  • Jun 6, 2018 3:48am Jun 6, 2018 3:48am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex Hope you are well my friend. Just not with it or ‘feeling’ it today, I did see the news but thanks for the head up, to me no more interest rate hikes for euro for a long time and the supposed intention of rate hikes for the usd should of sent E/U down and that should have also affected to some extent G/U, as we can see it is just not happening ATM, either I am wrong or there are some big guns in the market, either way I would rather stay away today now I have lost two scouts in a row and the fact that they were nowhere near in line...
Hi Phil,

It could be because of yesterday's residual orderflow. Yesterday had fundamentals and eurusd and gbpusd had very strong upthrusts, and asia/Tokyo both pairs ranged, and hardly pulled back, indicating strength. Usdcad also showed the same picture, a stophunt into the high and a strong yank back to the bottom. Also usdchf is also showing tear Vs eurusd, perhaps indicating the move from eurusd, gbpusd and cadusd has to do with afew events, the rate hike from EUR, as well as the trade tariffs. Yesterday had alot of trump news which spooked the markets since they were not actual scheduled news but something just dropped on everyone just like that.

So my guess is because of these fundamentals, markets needed to do a 360 and because it was so sudden, the impulse is fairly strong and sudden.

And yep I think your right, there are big guns inside, triggered by these fundamentals
  • #875
  • Jun 6, 2018 6:06am Jun 6, 2018 6:06am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi Phil, It could be because of yesterday's residual orderflow. Yesterday had fundamentals and eurusd and gbpusd had very strong upthrusts, and asia/Tokyo both pairs ranged, and hardly pulled back, indicating strength. Usdcad also showed the same picture, a stophunt into the high and a strong yank back to the bottom. Also usdchf is also showing tear Vs eurusd, perhaps indicating the move from eurusd, gbpusd and cadusd has to do with afew events, the rate hike from EUR, as well as the trade tariffs. Yesterday had alot of trump news which...

Hi CookieMonsta

Good fundamental analyses my friend, I am not that good at in depth fundamentals myself.

Regards

Phil.

@ everyone

These trades above where I have killed the scouts are very important to understand, the scouts will save us from making bigger mistakes and then having to spend time recovering from the outcome of those actions because we did not listen to the scouts.

AOW….

15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the
victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights
and afterwards looks for victory.
16. The consummate leader cultivates the moral law, and strictly adheres to
method and discipline; thus it is in his power to control success.
17. In respect of military method, we have, firstly, Measurement; secondly,
Estimation of quantity; thirdly, Calculation; fourthly, Balancing of chances;
fifthly, Victory.

14. Therefore the good fighter will be terrible in his onset, and prompt in his
decision.

30. So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.

29. A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when its spirit is keen, but
attacks it when it is sluggish and inclined to return. This is the art of
studying moods.

3. There are roads which must not be followed, armies which must be not
attacked, towns which must not be besieged, positions which must not be
contested, commands of the sovereign which must not be obeyed.
4. The general who thoroughly understands the advantages that accompany
variation of tactics knows how to handle his troops.
5. The general who does not understand these, may be well acquainted with
the configuration of the country, yet he will not be able to turn his knowledge
to practical account.
6. So, the student of war who is unversed in the art of war of varying his
plans, even though he be acquainted with the Five Advantages, will fail
to make the best use of his men.
7. Hence in the wise leader’s plans, considerations of advantage and of disadvantage
will be blended together.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #876
  • Jun 6, 2018 6:14am Jun 6, 2018 6:14am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi CookieMonsta Good fundamental analyses my friend, I am not that good at in depth fundamentals myself. Regards Phil. @ everyone These trades above where I have killed the scouts are very important to understand, the scouts will save us from making bigger mistakes and then having to spend time recovering from the outcome of those actions because we did not listen to the scouts. AOW…. 15. Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and...
thx phil.

market seems to be confused now, probably be spooked till next week, guidance from fomc. plus g7 this week too, probs lots of cross current, especially with the us and north korean summit.
  • #877
  • Jun 6, 2018 11:56pm Jun 6, 2018 11:56pm
G/U..... will the big guns pull out here???

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #878
  • Jun 7, 2018 12:02am Jun 7, 2018 12:02am
Good morning Phil,

I've noticed that during night/asian session the r3Ks are moving in sync: EUR & GBP up, JPY down - so far...

EUR & GBP are still in a long term downtrend on D1 but in pullback mode, JPY is in an uptrend (when I am right).

Wouldn't it be better to concentrate more on JPY. I think this (up-) trend is more reliable at the moment?

Thanks & cheers, Roland.
If you can't stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen...
  • #879
  • Jun 7, 2018 12:27am Jun 7, 2018 12:27am
Quoting rhsfx
Good morning Phil, I've noticed that during night/asian session the r3Ks are moving in sync: EUR & GBP up, JPY down - so far... EUR & GBP are still in a long term downtrend on D1 but in pullback mode, JPY is in an uptrend (when I am right). Wouldn't it be better to concentrate more on JPY. I think this (up-) trend is more reliable at the moment? Thanks & cheers, Roland.

Hi Roland

good morning my friend.

For my own personal way of trading, I am not happy to be long U/J ATM, I am actually neutral on that pair (but this is just my view), here is the daily chart to explain why I say these things.

I like to find set up’s at places I suspect buyers/sellers to be at, preferably with multiple reasons and areas above below I can see will maybe provide good cover for quick recovery if needed, but again this is just me and my way of trading, there are many ways to trade, none are right or wrong, all that matters is the bottom line on the account.

If the big guns are still in the market, I will most likely not take a trade as when they pull out it can trap you and leave you in a bad position to recover from, others I dare say like to ride their coat tails, but that is not for me nor is fighting them, i am just an ant trying to survive in a giants domain.

Regards

Phil.

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-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #880
  • Jun 7, 2018 12:50am Jun 7, 2018 12:50am
no trades for me, will check back later, big guns still doing their thing ATM.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
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