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Win in Trend and Win in Range

  • #181
  • Edited 8:50am Jun 1, 2018 7:40am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} We should not rely on others, rather use them as motivation; if they can do it, then we can do it. By the way, they are selling this EA in whopping 30,000$ and there are few peoples who actually bought or rented this.
My findings from this Holy Grail real account.

History is hidden but there are many things which may give us some light how he did this.
Trading Period: Sep 11, 2015 till Mar 14, 2018 (Total 916 Days or 130 weeks) After deducting 261 off days, Working days 655
Total Trades: 1334 (Average Trades per day 1334/655 = 2 only) It means, EA has strict entry rules..
Total Lots 9044 (Average Lots per trade 9044/1334 = 6.77 Lots) so average 13.54 Lots per Day
EA used higher lots. Like worst trade was only -9.2 pips and resulted -920$ means it was 10 lot trade

Out of 1334 trades, 58% win, 42% lose. Means EA is using stoploss less strategy like martingale, hedge, grid or recovery zone.
After filtered entry, if trade went wrong, they hedged the trades and closed the sequence at profit, thats why short winning rate is 56% and long winning rate is 59%.

They have withdrawn all money from this account but another account is still running here and all statistics are almost same..

learnings:
*Holy Grail does exist
*Expert Advisers can survive long term even with low deposit
*Expert Advisers can generate monthly consistently profits
*Traders can trade for living (its possible)
*Martingale/Hedge/Grid works.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HG1.png Size: 76 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: hg2.png Size: 80 KB
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  • #182
  • Jun 1, 2018 8:24am Jun 1, 2018 8:24am
Quote
Out of 1334 trades, 58% win, 42% lose. Means EA is using stoploss less strategy like martingale, hedge, grid or recovery zone.

Maybe I am missing something... but how do know from a win rate of 58% that they have to use a strategy without stoploss?
  • #183
  • Edited 8:47am Jun 1, 2018 8:34am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting Heptapod
{quote} Maybe I am missing something... but how do know from a win rate of 58% that they have to use a strategy without stoploss?
Please go to Advanced Statistics and check his daily performance. Its average 55% win daily and 45% loss daily

is this possible? With stop loss strategies, you will have some days only profits and some days have only losses but same win and loss ratio everyday is not possible at all....

Also see number of short and long trades on same pair.... EA is using mixture of hedging and martingale to keep draw down very low.

Moreover I believe, with stoploss strategies, such a low draw down is not possible at all.

Convinced?
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  • #184
  • Jun 1, 2018 9:37am Jun 1, 2018 9:37am
Quote
Convinced?

No, not convinced at all, I'm sorry.

If the average daily win rate is 55% (and therefore 45% loss), and average no. of trades per day is about 2, then all I know is that, on average, one of the trades they close per day is a winner, and one is a loss. Maybe some days they have two losses. Maybe some days they have two winners. Obviously over time they have more winners than losers, otherwise the win rate would be 50%, not 55%. Besides, the win rate alone doesn't make it a winning system, the average win size also has to be greater than the average loss - which it is, apparently about 2:1 - so this contributes more to the overall profitability here than the win rate.

But how do I know from this statistic what kind of exit strategies they use, like trailing stops, hard stops, no stops at all?

Also, one statistic is missing here, the one which would be the most important one for you, if you plan to use martingale type strategies:
the number of max. consecutive losses.
  • #185
  • Jun 1, 2018 10:14am Jun 1, 2018 10:14am
I took a look at the link you shared above, to the account that is still running. The average win size is just 2.28 pips (the average loss -1.09 pips). The average trade duration is only seconds (almost all trades are under 30 secs). Ok, this is the kind of system you will find difficult to trade manually, at least for me that's too fast, it needs to be automated (EA).

May I offer one last suggestion?

If you are convinced that martingale works great in markets that are in cycle mode (range mode), then how about using the concept I talked about a few posts further up: "there are no trends, there are only cycles, just cycles in different time frames". What appears to you as a linear trend in your active timeframe is only a small part of a bigger cycle, in a higher time frame. Can you see what this means? You could use two of your martingale engines, one for a short timeframe (say 1m), and one for a larger timeframe (5m, 10m, try what works best)... and you have an EA that Wins in Trend (large time frame) and Wins in Range (short time frame).
  • #186
  • Jun 1, 2018 6:56pm Jun 1, 2018 6:56pm
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} My findings from this Holy Grail real account. History is hidden but there are many things which may give us some light how he did this. Trading Period: Sep 11, 2015 till Mar 14, 2018 (Total 916 Days or 130 weeks) After deducting 261 off days, Working days 655 Total Trades: 1334 (Average Trades per day 1334/655 = 2 only) It means, EA has strict entry rules.. Total Lots 9044 (Average Lots per trade 9044/1334 = 6.77 Lots) so average 13.54 Lots per...
average win: 2 pips
average loss : 1 pip
average trade length : 7 s
WOW
  • #187
  • Jun 2, 2018 12:53pm Jun 2, 2018 12:53pm
I have completely lost faith in analysing any performance stats measures. My research and evidence gathered from my own trading strategy tell me that all such fancy measures can be manipulated with relative ease.

Win loss rate is meaningless
Average win:average loss is meaningless
Profit factor is meaningless
Expectancy is also meaningless
Total wins : Total loss is also meaningless
Total profit trades : Total loss trades is also meaningless
And the rest of the fancy measures used in assessing a trading strategy. They are all misleading leading only to a blown account by trading someone else's strategy without completely understanding the inner workings. Just testing someone else's EA in forward testing will not work and you will never understand the vulnerabilities that always exist in the market.

The only thing that matters to me is:
1) Is the strategy running longer than 3 years
2) if #1 is true then does it have a Return over Max DD of at least 3:1.

The combination of 2 above should give anyone a very robust assurance of any strategy.

I will also add... Never ever analyse any strategy that has open positions running. NEVER! You only analyse when all positions are closed out. This is only major reason why scams take place in this marketplace.
Staying in my lane...
  • #188
  • Edited 9:36am Jun 3, 2018 9:24am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} EA is using mixture of hedging and martingale to keep draw down very low. Moreover I believe, with stoploss strategies, such a low draw down is not possible at all. Convinced?
Of course, it is possible. There are nothing special about martingale and hedging. If every broker prohibits trading martingale and hedging strategies(you can have only one trade openned at a time), couldn't you trade your martingale/hedging strategy with stoploss and one single trade. Think about it. You can flip it with a bigger lot size and it will be the same. Martingale/hedging doesn't help you, if you take trades with 50:50%.
I know only one advantage of hedging. When you open a trade with your max lotsize, and the trade goes to SL, you hedge it. Next time you got your trade signal, you unhedge your trade(advantage: if you closed your trade at SL, now your max lotsize would be smaller). Of course to trade that, you should have 90-100% win%.
  • #189
  • Jun 3, 2018 9:29am Jun 3, 2018 9:29am
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} Of course, it is possible. There are nothing special about martingale and hedging. If every broker prohibits trading martingale and hedging strategies(you can have only one trade openned at a time, couldn't you trade your martingale/hedging strategy with stoploss and one single trade. Think about it. You can flip it with a bigger lot size and it will be the same. I know only one advantage of hedging. When you open a trade with your max lotsize, and the trade goes to SL, you hedge it. Next time you got your trade signal, you unhedge your...
IenDzi, I've seen your contributions to discussions with Moneyzilla - care to share more about your thoughts on this area?
  • #190
  • Jun 3, 2018 10:35am Jun 3, 2018 10:35am
Quoting carddard
{quote} IenDzi, I've seen your contributions to discussions with Moneyzilla - care to share more about your thoughts on this area?
I have done a lot of statistics with zigzag and how candle expands. But I can't find anything that gives edge in a long run. I took 14 years tick data. I have seen a very profitable run of about 8 years, but the next left years it started to lose a spread on average, so there is no way you can handle such a drawdown. All stats showed that you'll loose a spread in this 14 years.

Trend has 55%, but Risk:Reward = 1:0.8 (CurrentZZLeg = 0.8*previousZZLeg on average);
Reversal has 45%, but R:R = 1:1.25;

At the end trend has more pips then reversals, but you must know exact places where tops/bottoms will occur, to get benefit from it, and from zigzag statistics alone I coundn't find those.
Later I try how candle expands: for example from 10p to 100p. I thought, that after some reversals, the will be bigger probability to go in the final direction. And i was wrong, everytime you lose spread at the end. No matter if you take trade at 2-nd ,5-th or 10-th reversals.

Of course I found several systems, that would be profitable from backtesting, but I refused them because return was very small.
So these statistics was mainly with price alone, without time.

I think, MoneyZilla should know some places where win% is more than 50:50 and flips in that direction, and thats how he can get those positive pips.
I think MoneyZilla lies us about his IQ, or maybe my IQ is not what I think

Everyone should do these types of statistics for himself before trading live, it will save money, you shouldn't want to trade live .
  • #191
  • Jun 3, 2018 11:09am Jun 3, 2018 11:09am
Quoting Heptapod
{quote} No, not convinced at all, I'm sorry. If the average daily win rate is 55% (and therefore 45% loss), and average no. of trades per day is about 2, then all I know is that, on average, one of the trades they close per day is a winner, and one is a loss. Maybe some days they have two losses. Maybe some days they have two winners. Obviously over time they have more winners than losers, otherwise the win rate would be 50%, not 55%. Besides, the win rate alone doesn't make it a winning system, the average win size also has to be greater than the...
After analyzing Hourly charts
*Winners Vs. Losers
*Longs Vs. Shorts
*Long's Profit Vs. Short's Profit
*Winner's Profit Vs. Loser's Losses

I am convinced any way that hedging is involved and martingale or grid maybe as well.

Quoting Heptapod
I took a look at the link you shared above, to the account that is still running. The average win size is just 2.28 pips (the average loss -1.09 pips). The average trade duration is only seconds (almost all trades are under 30 secs). Ok, this is the kind of system you will find difficult to trade manually, at least for me that's too fast, it needs to be automated (EA). May I offer one last suggestion? If you are convinced that martingale works great in markets that are in cycle mode (range mode), then how about using the concept I talked about a...
Yes, its Automated system mentioned by trader. Thanks for your cycle suggestion; I have saved them for later stages in case I failed in current project...
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  • #192
  • Jun 3, 2018 11:13am Jun 3, 2018 11:13am
Quoting VEEFX
I have completely lost faith in analysing any performance stats measures. My research and evidence gathered from my own trading strategy tell me that all such fancy measures can be manipulated with relative ease. Win loss rate is meaningless Average win:average loss is meaningless Profit factor is meaningless Expectancy is also meaningless Total wins : Total loss is also meaningless Total profit trades : Total loss trades is also meaningless And the rest of the fancy measures used in assessing a trading strategy. They are all misleading leading...
Thanks dear for your feedback. We are not trying to figure out his secret strategy, we cannot do that with this data. We are only studying this data to see if he is using any stoploss less strategy or not (e.g. Grid, Martingale, Hedge, Recovery Zone etc)
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  • #193
  • Jun 3, 2018 11:16am Jun 3, 2018 11:16am
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} Of course, it is possible. There are nothing special about martingale and hedging. If every broker prohibits trading martingale and hedging strategies(you can have only one trade openned at a time), couldn't you trade your martingale/hedging strategy with stoploss and one single trade. Think about it. You can flip it with a bigger lot size and it will be the same. Martingale/hedging doesn't help you, if you take trades with 50:50%. I know only one advantage of hedging. When you open a trade with your max lotsize, and the trade goes to SL,...
With due respect, I have read hundred of posts of hanover about his great work and research in the same subject "Hedging and martingale". however the real power of Hedge and Martingale is still underestimated by most of the traders
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  • #194
  • Jun 3, 2018 11:37am Jun 3, 2018 11:37am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} With due respect, I have read hundred of posts of hanover about his great work and research in the same subject "Hedging and martingale". however the real power of Hedge and Martingale is still underestimated by most of the traders
Agreed!


How do hedge funds make millions? Hint, its in their title.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #195
  • Jun 3, 2018 3:34pm Jun 3, 2018 3:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Veefx: For every action, there is a equal and opposite binary reaction. Veefx: There is no edge found in movements of price over time (single chart) Veefx: Time is not equal to timeframe Veefx: Time is Everything
I agree with everything you said.
I was added time, but watched it like duration, and it doesn't work that way too. I got the same results if i add duration or not. So I removed time as duration.
So price should be removed from equation too. Then what is left - time. But how to look at time?
  • #196
  • Jun 4, 2018 3:09am Jun 4, 2018 3:09am
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} I agree with everything you said. I was added time, but watched it like duration, and it doesn't work that way too. I got the same results if i add duration or not. So I removed time as duration. So price should be removed from equation too. Then what is left - time. But how to look at time?
VEEFX is a genius of modern forex world, no doubt.
At one moment, he checks time on his watch and at next moment, he see profit in his bank account.

I wish I could trade like him; no need of price, no need of charts, no need of candles........ only
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  • #197
  • Jun 5, 2018 2:07am Jun 5, 2018 2:07am
A comment on hedging:

"How do hedge funds make millions? Hint, its in their title."

Agreed, but what we are talking about in this thread and what a hedge fund does is not quite the same thing...

For example, a hedge fund manager might offset the risk in some of their huge and *profitable* equity positions with index futures or option strategies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund#Strategies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_(finance)

But KashifNawaz, if I understand his strategy correctly, wants to avoid closing a *losing* forex position by opening a new position in the opposite direction ("hedge"), and/or double down, by opening another position in the same losing direction ("martingale").

In my (limited) experience, this type of strategy is not hedging in the proper sense, but just an attempt to avoid admitting a mistake. For me, this always resulted in a bigger loss than would have been caused by simply closing the losing position.

My only positive experience with a kind of hedging strategy was from trading a longer term trend (having a profitable position in direction of a trend in a higher timeframe, say 1h) and then simultaneously trading counter trend in a smaller timeframe (say 5min), so effectively trading the pullbacks against the larger trend, in addition to the trend. This way I was able to accumulate profits from the larger trend and profits from the smaller pullbacks. This worked best in volatile trends (when the pullbacks were deeper), but it required quick reactions, to get out when a pullback was over and the major trend resumed.

Btw, this strategy is somewhat similar to the "no trend, just cycles" proposal I made a few posts earlier.
  • #198
  • Jun 7, 2018 2:48am Jun 7, 2018 2:48am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} VEEFX is a genius of modern forex world, no doubt. At one moment, he checks time on his watch and at next moment, he see profit in his bank account. I wish I could trade like him; no need of price, no need of charts, no need of candles........ only
I am no genius. In fact, I never had access to a library until the first half of my life (and I just turned 50 this year) but I do look at what cannot be altered or manipulated by anyone without me knowing about it. That thing is only TIME of which I have 100% control of. Can any of us control Price? Time is also manipulated in retail trading platforms and we don't even know it exists until we do a deep dive into truly understanding your trading platform. Hint: think about what is not allowed or easily available to us with respect to time.

I have caused enough clutter in this thread so I will depart now. As I have said several times, this thread topic has the potential.
Staying in my lane...
  • #199
  • Jun 7, 2018 3:10am Jun 7, 2018 3:10am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am no genius. In fact, I never had access to a library until the first half of my life (and I just turned 50 this year) but I do look at what cannot be altered or manipulated by anyone without me knowing about it. That thing is only TIME of which I have 100% control of. Can any of us control Price? Time is also manipulated in retail trading platforms and we don't even know it exists until we do a deep dive into truly understanding your trading platform. Hint: think about what is not allowed or easily available to us with respect to time....
VEE,

Is it the ability to set your choice of time zone?

Thanks
  • #200
  • Edited 3:45am Jun 7, 2018 3:32am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting aaven
{quote} VEE, Is it the ability to set your choice of time zone? Thanks
No but related but not relativity against time...but Aaven, if you don't know how to code or have technology background on how servers work and comminicate or more importantly keep in sync in real time (talking nanoseconds), it will be hard for you to decipher my posts on Time....and I am not talking about carrying a watch on my hand to trigger entries either lol

Guys - also note that I am not talking about profitable strategy but more about consistency to maintain profitability for the long term. My research ending in eliminating price and incorporating time was primarily driven by a simple question "why systems fail and after how long?" Markets don't really change that much but techniques of algos and manipulation evolve over time. We cannot control all that. All we can control is what we do as part of our strategy. That is all there is to it. If the foundation shakes based on this or that, there is no way a strategy can remain consistent in the long run. Please think about this in that terms as I do not want to appear as if I have some secret formula like our friend crucial point. I really don't and I have said this...I use only simple math....no complex algebra or calculus or trig. all that is beyond my capacity or liking. Simplicity works as it is based on strong and robust foundation or market principles which I have stretegically shared throughout the factory in many threada ad they came across to my attention and became relevant for me to share my findings....that's all. I do not have the HOLY GRAIL...no one does as there is no edge in trading except an application of strategy tiltig the probabilities in our favor with descipline, focus and execution !

Edit: Repeating myself again and again...a strategy must have only IF and an Else. The moment you introduce a MAYBE, you are screwed eitehr right away fiercely or slowly but surely over time (under 3 years tops) due to decay caused by those unknowns. I must add, there is only one unknown in my strategy that I do not understand the reasons behind. I am at it with 100% for us and I will get to it eventually. You have to understand every little detail why things work the way they do.

Edit2: also, please do NOT rule out the power of win/loss close to 48-52 range. They can be very powerful systems.
Staying in my lane...
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