Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

Hi Z, i cannot speak for Lem but i counter.
i only counter specific trades,
These trades have good stats and i trade using Frequency Distribution..

Once you study and realise the potential of this it all becomes clear.

Use a stop by all means and i do recommend using stop....
But stops do kill....
Yesterday i was -15 down and today i was another -15 down (or could of been) and was countering.

Yesterdays -15 is now zero, and the counter today is -10.
i will get it back...
In the past i have had several counters running but they all become good.
it helps if you have a big bank roll.

Yes maybe it's just me when tried to hedge every trade I had failed, I ended up with 12 pairs of trade and couldn't add more new trades.

That was on 5 min time frame on the cable.

i used to scalp cable off the 5 min bar when i was bored...

i think you will find it hard countering off a 5 minute bar..

Yes I'm trading the daily and hourly charts only, using stops though

I like to be able to counter but not prepared to manage multiple counters, also remembering which is which was challenging for me.

that is the fun part lol..

i posted in another thread not long ago regarding stops but as of yet not received any replies.
they seem to be hypnotically induced to adore the leader.
Nothing wrong with that, make love not war as they say, but grown men ?


ask questions and i will gladly answer

well my gf is in Wales now, with a gang of VW lovers

LOL.

I wish my wife would leave for 5 days, it sounds like heaven to me. lol

t 21-52

Cable, it is ranging on the 15 bar for the last 5.5 hours?

today has been a short range too, hmmmmmmmmmmm '

maybe do a Claudia

usd /cad is the same.

what is the 15 bar?

It's where you get a quick drink.

lmao

15 min bar in consolidation. It will break one way.

NFP tomorrow so fun ahead.

thank you! sorry for the dumb question.

Lol no problem. U/Cad looks more interesting on 15 min as Billy pointed out.

I see Billy has already answered on this and what I would add on this is that you need to adjust how you are viewing the counter trade technique.

To have 12 trades or whatever running all at the same time while trying to unwind the first one is a failure of technique. (Sorry, I am not trying to be rude, that came across a bit blunt, lol).

This fail and fail and fail again can happen if the counter is too large, that is that the buy and sell entries are too far apart, so what you get is price continually either just triggering and turning once again before your target is met, or not triggering at all, with price sitting between, so both long and short are sitting in negative (even though the overall negative will remain fixed at the same amount).

5 min tf is also not always optimum ground for countering, as you can get tiny candles very easily. That's why I use mostly 10 min or 15 min candles, even though I may enter a counter on a 5 min line (yes, I know how confusing that sounds).

Also - and possibly the thing that matters most of all - is that we are not running this on random pairs. We have a statistical edge on specific pairs and ''know'' that if we sit it out long enough, then we will get the amount of movement one way that will clear our floating negative. At its simplest, think of it like this - if a pair's ADR is 100 and we have a floater of -10, how likely (or unlikely) is it that we won't get a move larger than that -10?

Also, you are looking at an open counter in isolation - and Billy has touched on this as well - whereas we do not. It is simply a number. How it is now reduced is open to interpretation and our own methods.

One of the keys for these trades for me at this point, is that once the spread has been cleared, you do not let them go negative. Close for a pip...a half-a-pip if it comes to it...just not negative. If price does this and we close in a small profit then turns back again, we simply re-enter. Rinse, repeat. All the while, you are reducing the day's +/- amount...and that original counter remains at exactly the same figure.

So, the original floating loss could be -10...you add a couple of plus moves, say +2 and +4. Now your day sits at only -4, even though that original floating loss is exactly the same.

Then maybe a third gives you +9 and your day is at +5. Target met.

Now...you have a couple of options. Close both the original trades straight away and take the clear amount, or stagger them in stages. If you have momentum, you would probably not have even closed that +9 trade, so that will mean you will have two going one way in increasing profit and one going negative. You close the negative, then maximise the two in positive territory. You'll end up with a greater plus figure and one day's trade closed at a loss (the negative leg of the hedge/counter).

Or...and this is riskier, admittedly, you have the two running positive and when it looks like it is stalling that way, close them but keep the negative open, as it is looking to now turn back on itself, first reducing that negative and then even going all the way back into profit. That way you can green up your board, with no loss trades on your day's books at all.

Soooooo...ok...now...there is another addition to that last move - and that is to add another trade in the same direction as the now-decreasing negative trade and so you will also be adding even more jam on top as that trade reduces, so even of it doesn't clear completely, the newest trade will cover the part that doesn't.

Or you could just use a stop...

15 minute candle