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Win in Trend and Win in Range

  • #161
  • May 29, 2018 2:03am May 29, 2018 2:03am
Quoting VEEFX
A fabulous thread title but painful to see it go nowhere ! My final post on this thread.... May I suggest you guys find the common denominator between Trending and Ranging Markets? There is one in the Thread title itself i.e. "Win" which is tricking you all into going in circles! Ask yourself the right questions and solutions will surface in just a matter of time! What do we have to do with win in both trending and ranging market? What is the common denominator? You will NOT find the answer in entries! If you can figure this out, you will OWN the...
I think you pointed to the right direction
i was staying here and waiting curiously who will be able to bring and or create some reason able logic regarding to title topic - with out to hurt some body,announcing is some thing else than proving
for so many pages,posts and days still no single productive logical theory came at floor - even it is not differentiated yet where it start ranging and where trending,which TF and what size of cycle is considerable - seems we simply flying with sweet dreams
with out a strong and logical base frame how a possible valid strategy can be constructed
still my offer is there if you guys/participants came up and or summed up with some thing logical
along with i dont like going "VEEFX" kind things -
as may be some day you open your hidden box here
  • #162
  • May 29, 2018 4:12am May 29, 2018 4:12am
A mathematical proof of the existence of trends in financial time series: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0901.1945.pdf

Quote
We are settling a longstanding quarrel in quantitative finance by proving the existence of trends in financial time series thanks to a theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which is expressed in the language of nonstandard analysis (Integration over finite sets, F. & M. Diener (Eds): Nonstandard Analysis in Practice, Springer, 1995, pp. 195–204). Those trends, which might coexist with some altered random walk paradigm and efficient market hypothesis, seem nevertheless difficult to reconcile with the celebrated Black-Scholes model. They are estimated...
  • #163
  • May 29, 2018 6:41am May 29, 2018 6:41am
Whenever I lose hope, I just check few accounts like this

Such a low deposit, low draw-down and high win rate.......... dream of all traders

If someone can do this, why cannot we? Day dreamers
.................
  • #164
  • May 29, 2018 7:06am May 29, 2018 7:06am
Quoting KashifNawaz
Whenever I lose hope, I just check few accounts like this Such a low deposit, low draw-down and high win rate.......... dream of all traders If someone can do this, why cannot we? Day dreamers
It's probably because he found a better idea, strategy, technique than what we are capable to think about.
That algorithm has low drawdown and very high ROI. It's very challenging to achieve that performance but someone did it.

How can we achieve that. I don't know.
All the things I thought about involves DD and sometimes can lead to catastrophic results.

Your idea on engine 1 is good but in my opinion it's necessary to find also an entry trigger. If we enter just randomly we'll use the recovery to often and that mean high DD.

Let's keep thinking. More brains more ideas etc...
  • #165
  • May 29, 2018 7:13am May 29, 2018 7:13am
Quoting Merka
{quote} It's probably because he found a better idea, strategy, technique than what we are capable to think about. That algorithm has low drawdown and very high ROI. It's very challenging to achieve that performance but someone did it. How can we achieve that. I don't know. All the things I thought about involves DD and sometimes can lead to catastrophic results. Your idea on engine 1 is good but in my opinion it's necessary to find also an entry trigger. If we enter just randomly we'll use the recovery to often and that mean high DD. Let's keep...
Yeah that's why I believe entry point is key to having high returns with low drawdowns. You have to find a low risk entry point.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #166
  • May 29, 2018 10:09pm May 29, 2018 10:09pm
Just use manual trading on support/resistance and supply demand areas. Scale into the trade and do not have tight SL. That is how you refine your entry. I can't think of a way to automate this, and I don't think an EA will ever be as good as manual trading.
  • #167
  • May 30, 2018 12:20am May 30, 2018 12:20am
Not trying to be a dick...the best strategy in any market conditions and situation is learn how to monetise trading strategy and trading educations. Profit guaranteed and zero risks with occasion curses to yourself and your families.
Cheers

Hehe
  • #168
  • May 30, 2018 2:28am May 30, 2018 2:28am
Quoting Merka
{quote} It's probably because he found a better idea, strategy, technique than what we are capable to think about. That algorithm has low drawdown and very high ROI. It's very challenging to achieve that performance but someone did it. How can we achieve that. I don't know. All the things I thought about involves DD and sometimes can lead to catastrophic results. Your idea on engine 1 is good but in my opinion it's necessary to find also an entry trigger. If we enter just randomly we'll use the recovery to often and that mean high DD. Let's keep...
People will call me fool, stupid, idiot and insane but I don't care

I believe on a fancy EA (mixture of Martingale/Anti-Martingale/Reverse Martingale/Hedge/Recovery Zone/Grid etc) with no entry or exit rules, higher profits, low deposit and low draw-down like this & this

To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't disclose my ideas unless I bring 1 year real trading results of profitability.
.................
  • #169
  • May 30, 2018 2:43am May 30, 2018 2:43am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} People will call me fool, stupid, idiot and insane but I don't care I believe on a fancy EA (mixture of Martingale/Anti-Martingale/Reverse Martingale/Hedge/Recovery Zone/Grid etc) with no entry or exit rules, higher profits, low deposit and low draw-down like this & this To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't...
A wise man once said, "Haters gonna hate."

Whatever it is you are doing, you can't please everyone and you don't have to. Do what you think is right, learn along the way and refine your strategies. Push on!
  • #170
  • May 30, 2018 3:06am May 30, 2018 3:06am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} People will call me fool, stupid, idiot and insane but I don't care I believe on a fancy EA (mixture of Martingale/Anti-Martingale/Reverse Martingale/Hedge/Recovery Zone/Grid etc) with no entry or exit rules, higher profits, low deposit and low draw-down like this & this To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't...

If you are so happy with others performance, why not just folow their trades and be done with it, no stress just pay them a performance fee and you will get what they have . Simple enough
  • #171
  • May 30, 2018 3:11am May 30, 2018 3:11am
Quoting JacolineFIS
{quote} If you are so happy with others performance, why not just folow their trades and be done with it, no stress just pay them a performance fee and you will get what they have . Simple enough
We should not rely on others, rather use them as motivation; if they can do it, then we can do it. By the way, they are selling this EA in whopping 30,000$ and there are few peoples who actually bought or rented this.
.................
  • #172
  • May 30, 2018 3:25am May 30, 2018 3:25am
In response to KashifNawaz

>> To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't disclose my ideas unless I bring 1 year real trading results of profitability.

Don't worry about bullies, the purpose of this forum is to share your ideas, learn from the feedback you receive, and from the ideas of others. Making use of the collective intelligence of the forexfactory community should get you results faster than working alone in a cave :-)

I have little experience with Martingale, and that little experience is negative (account blown up), so I can't help with that part, I'm afraid.

But VEEFX has offered some very deep thoughts, further up (and got very little reaction). For example: "RECENCY matters." Think about it. RECENCY is the very foundation of technical analysis (at least the way I understand it). You do technical analysis with the assumption that what you observe as RECENT market behavior will still be true for a sufficient number of bars so you can close a profitable trade. If you draw a trendline, it is because you believe that price will bounce off this trendline the next time it is hit. If you detect a range, you expect price to bounce off upper and lower range boundaries at least once. If John Ehlers designs a bank of filters to measure a dominant cycle period, it is because he assumes that this period will be stable for at least one more cycle so the can trade the next price swing between high and low.

Another thing VEEFX said, Exits are more important than Entries, I totally agree. You could learn about exit strategies, to optimize your EA.

The main problem with "Win in Trend and win in Range" is that there are many ways to think about Trend and Range. As I pointed out with the John Ehlers example, it is ok to think that the market is not either trend or range, but an addition of trend and cycles. It is also ok to focus only on trends (as VEEFX seems to favor), because you could say that a range consists of a series of trends (price trends up and down between range boundaries). Markets are fractal. Then, it is also ok to say that there is no trend, there are only cycles. Because when John Ehlers says that he models price as an "instantaneous trendline plus dominant cycle", he also states that this is only an approximation: what appears as a linear trend component in your active timeframe is itself changing over time, so in reality it is also a cycle, just in a higher timeframe.

Finally, I don't have a fancy EA, and if I had one, I might share some ideas with other traders if I get some ideas back in return, but not for nothing, and not with folks who seem just to be too lazy to do their own homework, get upset if after nine pages of post they don't see a finished EA, but have contributed nothing (like some others on this thread). So this will be my last post, for now. Keep up your work, and good luck.
  • #173
  • May 30, 2018 7:41am May 30, 2018 7:41am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} People will call me fool, stupid, idiot and insane but I don't care I believe on a fancy EA (mixture of Martingale/Anti-Martingale/Reverse Martingale/Hedge/Recovery Zone/Grid etc) with no entry or exit rules, higher profits, low deposit and low draw-down like this & this To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't...
Keep up the good work and trust yourself
  • #174
  • May 30, 2018 12:09pm May 30, 2018 12:09pm
Quoting Heptapod
In response to KashifNawaz >> To avoid being bullied by senior traders here, I won't disclose my ideas unless I bring 1 year real trading results of profitability. Don't worry about bullies, the purpose of this forum is to share your ideas, learn from the feedback you receive, and from the ideas of others. Making use of the collective intelligence of the forexfactory community should get you results faster than working alone in a cave :-) I have little experience with Martingale, and that little experience is negative (account blown up), so I can't...

Thanks mate for your detailed feedback. Yes sure, I am on my mission and will ask for help if required from supportive members. Commenting about VEEFX, I do respect him and his expertise in forex, I believe he is genius in this field. But there some kind of gap or my inefficiency to grasp his ideas

Here on the top, Genius like VEEFX will talk about broad and high level topics like diversification of markets, arbitrary entries,powers of the market makers, smart money, violation of Mt4 platforms, etc etc

Here at the bottom, we dumb forex retails users are wandering in the streets of the FX market with our little capital and trying to figure out entry and exit rules so that we may able to generate constant monthly pips.

I am pure technical person like many other fools and i want to discuss about only good trading system (with entry exit rules) which can generate money. Reading boring theoretical books or listening to lectures etc doesn't help us. (maybe thats why, we are away from success, who knows)

Quoting Merka
{quote} Keep up the good work and trust yourself

Thanks Mate
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  • #175
  • May 31, 2018 6:14am May 31, 2018 6:14am
To KashifNawaz:

>> I am pure technical person like many other fools and i want to discuss about only good trading system (with entry exit rules) which can generate money.

That's fine, technical analysis is a valid approach, in my opinion, as long as you are aware of the underlying assumptions, like the "Recency" one I discussed above.

When the market is in "noise" mode, breaks trendlines, doesn't respect range boundaries, constantly changes cycle periods, all your technical analysis will no longer work (so your EA could include a filter to get you out of the market if this situation is detected). Well, some kind of technical analysis would still be valid, even in that case, but it's of a different kind (what I would call "stochastical methods", based on the randomness of markets itself).

May I suggest something simple, to get you started? If it works, you can extend your system / EA from there. How about using the "small range" condition I suggested earlier in this thread ("price closes within the range of the previous candle"). The code to detect this condition is very simple, just a few lines. Your EA can try to get long at the lower range boundary, short at the upper range boundary, with a small, well defined risk (stop). The exit condition is also very simple, fixed price target, near the opposite range boundary.

Write the code, backtest it, backtest it some more. If it works, report the results here... and see how you can improve it.

Good luck.
  • #176
  • May 31, 2018 7:54am May 31, 2018 7:54am
Quoting Heptapod
To KashifNawaz: >> I am pure technical person like many other fools and i want to discuss about only good trading system (with entry exit rules) which can generate money. That's fine, technical analysis is a valid approach, in my opinion, as long as you are aware of the underlying assumptions, like the "Recency" one I discussed above. When the market is in "noise" mode, breaks trendlines, doesn't respect range boundaries, constantly changes cycle periods, all your technical analysis will no longer work (so your EA could include a filter to get you...

I think he want to enter the market regardless of the conditions
  • #177
  • May 31, 2018 1:19pm May 31, 2018 1:19pm
Quoting Heptapod
To KashifNawaz: >> I am pure technical person like many other fools and i want to discuss about only good trading system (with entry exit rules) which can generate money. That's fine, technical analysis is a valid approach, in my opinion, as long as you are aware of the underlying assumptions, like the "Recency" one I discussed above. When the market is in "noise" mode, breaks trendlines, doesn't respect range boundaries, constantly changes cycle periods, all your technical analysis will no longer work (so your EA could include a filter to get you...
Thanks friend for your suggestions. These will really help when I will work on a mathematical strategy one day. Currently I am focusing to tame world's dangerous EA, Martingale; to make it *blast free *high profitable with low deposit *single digit draw-down and I am already close to my target.

So with due respect, in that kind of EA, such things like Recency, Entry Exit Rules won't help I believe. These things are good for high level experts who build very complex EA's. My simple EA will believe that market is always ranging and always trending and changes in the market will not stop it to keep grabbing and grabbing pips.... Maybe you think I am drunk

Quoting Merka
{quote} I think he want to enter the market regardless of the conditions
Exactly.....
.................
  • #178
  • May 31, 2018 1:23pm May 31, 2018 1:23pm
Quoting Heptapod
Don't worry about bullies, the purpose of this forum is to share your ideas, learn from the feedback you receive, and from the ideas of others. Making use of the collective intelligence of the forexfactory community should get you results faster than working alone in a cave :-)
The day, when you will have a genuine idea of very profitable EA, will you share that to public? No one will, never. But I will definitely publish my findings and results to break this myth that martingale always fails. Its we people who underestimate the power of martingale...... Would you believe, I have lost 5 accounts in last 8 months due to martingale. Now martingale started respecting me...
.................
  • #179
  • Jun 1, 2018 3:29am Jun 1, 2018 3:29am
Quote
The day, when you will have a genuine idea of very profitable EA, will you share that to public? No one will, never.

Who knows? When a trading system has made me "enough" money, maybe what I need then is not more money, but fame, and my vanity will lead me to sharing it, or even write a book.... :-)

For the moment, I prefer manual trading to EAs, as I believe that EAs introduce more problems than they solve. Also, I'm addicted to charts (what VEEFX tries very hard to get away from, by "detoxification", something I have to admire him/her for).

So my approach is quite different from yours, it seems: I would see a price movement in a chart, ask myself where the best entry and exit would have been to capture it, what indicators would have allowed me to see after 2-3 bars that this movement was more probable that the opposite movement, what entry rule would have told me to open the trade, what exit rule would have told me to close it, in profit. The trade would be represented in the chart as a simple line, from entry to exit, hopefully capturing at least 50% of the price movement.

My problem with martingale: wouldn't all the entries / exits would look like a big mess all over my beautiful chart? How / why would this work better than my beautifully simple trade (LOL)? But maybe my understanding of martingale is wrong (non-existent)?
  • #180
  • Jun 1, 2018 5:06am Jun 1, 2018 5:06am
Quoting Heptapod
{quote} Who knows? When a trading system has made me "enough" money, maybe what I need then is not more money, but fame, and my vanity will lead me to sharing it, or even write a book.... :-)
In case you will get such profitable strategy, at first stage, you will clear all your liabilities (personal loans/bank loans/auto loan/credit card bills) to become free man. Then at 2nd stage, you will resign from your daily job after having handsome deposits in your bank. Then at third stage, you will have enough free time and money to explore the world by travelling Fame is not good for health... You will lose all your privacy to enjoy free life.

Quoting Heptapod
{quote} For the moment, I prefer manual trading to EAs, as I believe that EAs introduce more problems than they solve. Also, I'm addicted to charts (what VEEFX tries very hard to get away from, by "detoxification", something I have to admire him/her for). So my approach is quite different from yours, it seems: I would see a price movement in a chart, ask myself where the best entry and exit would have been to capture it, what indicators would have allowed me to see after 2-3 bars that this movement was more probable that the opposite movement, what...
That what all I hate to do my friend. We both are sitting at opposite extremes. I don't want to spend my all precious time sitting in front of laptop, thinking, guessing, analyzing, grudging, sweating to earn some pips. Rather I want to spend my time with my family and explore this beautiful world.

Quoting Heptapod
{quote} My problem with martingale: wouldn't all the entries / exits would look like a big mess all over my beautiful chart? How / why would this work better than my beautifully simple trade (LOL)? But maybe my understanding of martingale is wrong (non-existent)?
Martingale, Hedge, Grid, Recovery Zone etc..... All these stoploss-less strategies are very dangerous alone. But their combination can be very lethal for the market and holy grail for the trader.
.................
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