Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

already short the CADJPY

Nice one. Cd/jpy got fully penetrated

let the flood gates open!

As of today, in this order

Strong currencies
JPY
CHF
AUD

Neutral currencies
NZD
USD

Weak currencies
GBP
EUR
CAD

Hi Samson, If Europe decides to end the QE (Quantitative Easing - i know you are an expert, but for the benefit of others who may not know what QE stands for), i think we need to be watchful regarding any EUR trades where we are bearish on EUR-

https://forexlive.com/centralbank/!/ecb-policymakers-in-relative-unison-about-ending-qe-this-year-report-20180525

Please provide your valuable comments. Thank you.

Hey Samson,

So it has been a slow week for me.

AUDUSD was flat. Price did go above 0.75000 which I was looking for last week. However after 2 trade attempts, it struggled to go beyond 0.76700. One trade ended +6 the other ended -25 for a net loss of -19. Going forward I am looking for price to make new highs/lows,

EURUSD is still falling. I took advantage of Tuesdays pull back and took a short with a TP of the Daily average which was 75 at trade time. That target was hit the very next day. I am cautions of riding EURUSD in any sort of swing potion unless we get a major retrace or a break of 1.15500.

GBPUSD is also still falling. I also took advantage of Tuesdays pull back and took a short with a Daily average TP trade which was 100 at trade time. That target was also hit the very next day. Price is as of right now playing with the 1.33000 low of December 2017. Same outlook as EUR on the tech side. Break the lows or retrace for a swing trade opportunity.

NZDUSD played me like the AUDUSD did. I took a long position that looked good tech wise for a retrace, but ended up with -33. Going forward I am looking for price to make new highs/lows.

USDCAD whiplash from the whipsaw. It has just been ugly from last week. I was going to try but was really not liking how it looks. Going forward I am looking for price to make new highs/lows.

USDCHF was a nice and smooth down move. Still short right now after locking in +52 @ 0.99350. It is a long weekend here in USA so we will see what happens. It may turn around me but 50 pips is 50 pips.

USDJPY fell over 130 by EOD on Wednesday that gave me a clear entry point for short. I have secured +25 pips @ 109.90 to be sure I do not eat crow next week. There is some strong support at 109.000.

GBPJPY had a smashing short opportunity that I did not take. As I mentioned before I trade EURJPY GBPJPY from time to time and I am kicking myself for missing those drops. However, my money management rules and margin requirements did not allow for it.

News wise Next week is a going to busy. Not only is it Non Farm week but it is also a short week since Monday is Memorial Day. For the rest of the week I am looking at USD Consumer Confidence, Preliminary GDP and of course NFP & Unemployment Rate. For the CAD we have BOC Rate Statement & Overnight Rate (currently 1.25 and I doubt there will be a change) as well as GDP. Hopefully this will shake the USDCAD into some action.

Enjoy your weekend all.

- Ric

Hello Samson - could I ask where you get access to pretext for these events? Is it Ransquawk or some other source?

Thanks - Rjaws

If you go on the economic calendar you'll notice that we have central bankers that speak weekly. As soon as they are about to speak a pretext is released and Ransquwk read it out. If they mention anything regarding monetary policy I press the execution button immediately. It's that easy but you need to understand the language. I never trade speeches live because that's a different ball game which I leave for the big boys because not every event is there always a pretext available before they speak.

For example I think we have cad interest rate release next week. They always issue a statement during it which ransquawk will read out and that's what creates the volatility if interest rates remain unchanged.

Goldman Sachs recommends short USD/CAD targeting 1.18, with a stop at 1.33; current price is 1.2970

I am assuming they think the cad central bank will be hawkish on Wednesday I think it is or oil will do some kind of reversal or that nafta is close lol

The only pairs that were predictable this week were jpy and cad. Jpy due to trump rants and cad due to oil. Cad also fell on a beautiful suport level which I traded.

There will be month end flows next week so I'm curios
To see if banks will release usd for profit next week as there is usually movement last 1- 3 days of the month for traders to balance their portfolios.

I wasn't expecting euro to tank like it did. I'm curious to see how far it can go because ecb minutes offered very little and so did Fomc minutes so it seems dollar is still in control.

I missed all the moves today as I was travelling. Attempted to trade GDP for pound but it came out in line.

Took a loss on the jpy moves yesterday as the sentiment didnt roll on as much as I thought it would

Turkish Central Bank has approved the simplification process of the operational framework of monetary policy, setting the one week repo rate equal to the current funding rate and as the policy rate of the central bank

Quick short looking for profit at s3 based on the above news

Bank trades for the week:

Morgan Stanley trade of the week - Short EURCHF at market, Target at 1.12, Stop at 1.17

"Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%"

CAUSALITY trading will beat both.

FF

This morning was manic.

Made 0.65% shorting EUR/JPY. EUR/USD & GBP/JPY.

Took another short on the personal account

TP hit very quickly

Hey Samson, EUR and GBP are very weak - Fundamental trading rocks !!!! - Many of the EUR and GBP pairs going south and quickly....

Congrats on the successful trades...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-29/italy-s-prime-minister-pleases-establishment-roils-the-markets

Thanks.

Did you catch the moves?

Yes... Lets use all three and make more pips ;-)

Yes - i did - Thank you so much, Samson. I was trying out a couple of S/R indi's and CurrencyFlow indi (Screenshot has details) that i picked up from another thread and combining with what we already know - EUR and GBP are weak, very weak and Italy has fundamental issues...

Due to my full time job, i am taking trades on Daily charts but if i exit now, many, many pips. I will let them run till the next S/R level. I am still in the initial phase when i am trying these out and getting a more solid understanding of Fundamentals...



Fundamental trading / analysis works!!!