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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #40,901
  • May 25, 2018 12:23pm May 25, 2018 12:23pm
Update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-18 (987 Tick).e 5_25_2018.jpg Size: 234 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #40,902
  • Edited 12:52pm May 25, 2018 12:37pm | Edited 12:52pm
Taken out -35. I deserve it for breaking my rules. Let the pain be a teacher.
  • #40,903
  • May 25, 2018 1:19pm May 25, 2018 1:19pm
I'm up 83 points this month. Best month on record for me unless I f**k it up. I've missed some good trades due to work that I was stalking, not just noticing them after the fact.

I actually had to go demo after a bad February for a couple of months. It clearly helped my mental state since I was able to trust in my decisions. So what if a drawdown occurs, the next 2 trades could make up for all of it and then some. I think the worst part of all of this is when you have a loser, thinking its your fault or you were wrong. Some trades have to lose. Expectations have to fail or the market would only go one direction. This doesn't mean my analysis was right every time, but if it was, I can't be mad.

I've made a few mistakes for sure. I've noticed my analysis was wrong and got out early. I know for a fact I can do better, and will get there. I'm weak on structure analysis right now. I miss too many trades looking for fib corrections. Working on it.

I also posted this before, but I somehow deleted my excel trading journal. I had to go back over 6 months and recreate it from the charts. I couldn't believe that some idiot actually took those trades. Like wtf was he thinking? I can't even. I was embarrassed at myself to say the least. Maybe a tip for some of you?
  • #40,904
  • May 25, 2018 1:22pm May 25, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting Prock
{quote} Do you mind if I post what I have and what I saw from my charts. It may be helpful or maybe not at all. {image} {image}
This is a good analysis. I saw some of this myself, particularly in the second attachment for later in the day.
  • #40,905
  • May 25, 2018 2:12pm May 25, 2018 2:12pm
Those who chose today to trade AB=CD (maroon color) are big winners............ My fellow traders with today's presentation how I trade harmonic patterns and how I apply dynamic trend analysis I concluded harassing you with it as well as with Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Principle. I wish you all from the bottom of my heart many successful days in this endeavor.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 06-18 (987 Tick.f) 5_25_2018.jpg Size: 219 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #40,906
  • May 25, 2018 2:34pm May 25, 2018 2:34pm
Quoting csternfx
{quote} This is a good analysis. I saw some of this myself, particularly in the second attachment for later in the day.
Thank you!
  • #40,907
  • May 25, 2018 3:14pm May 25, 2018 3:14pm
Quoting Coreg2004
Those who chose today to trade AB=CD (maroon color) are big winners............ My fellow traders with today's presentation how I trade harmonic patterns and how I apply dynamic trend analysis I concluded harassing you with it as well as with Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Principle. I wish you all from the bottom of my heart many successful days in this endeavor. {image}
You do a fantastic job labeling those charts, helps a lot!
  • #40,908
  • May 25, 2018 3:34pm May 25, 2018 3:34pm
Quoting PipJr
{quote} Hi PeterT, I think your short term analysis was spot on and you had an expectation failure. I think what others are saying is that there were signs that showed this. The answer I was given before in a similar situation was 'situational awareness'. I hated that answer at the time but it does make sense. Take a look at the chart and see if you think it makes sense to go long where you did 'in the grand scheme'. There was a NSL followed by a NSH - Should be a deep (and complex) correction after that. Hope that helps. {image}
Thanks PipJr.
I understand what you mean and I agree, we need to keep situational awareness all the time.
Still in the grand scheme I don't see why an ABCD to the downside could not be followed by a NSH, creating an even higher NSH in the larger OF.
Sorry haha maybe that insight comes with time ;-)
  • #40,909
  • May 25, 2018 3:42pm May 25, 2018 3:42pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} I think that you are tooooo focused on why it didn't work out.. you can analyse pretty good from what I've seen so you need to focus on consistency. I've been following Damian for 2 years now and I've seen a lot of price action. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS THE EXPECTATION...which today failed for you. I've seen many NSHs made even when the bearish correction was with a lot of momentum and vice versa. I've seen many expectations fail even though all the stars were aligned.. that's why Damian stresses so much on the fact that you have to be...
I guess I'm still looking for confirmation that what I am doing makes sense. If it makes sense, then the next step is doing it consistently.
I'm still struggling with the "situational awareness" vs. "filtering out trades" vs. "taking every trade that fits the criteria".
Today I took a trade that fitted my criteria. But in the grand scheme of things it was possibly not a high probability trade.
And here, some traders would have filtered it out, and some would have taken it.
Thanks for your reply
  • #40,910
  • May 25, 2018 4:20pm May 25, 2018 4:20pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Sorry Peter for confusion here is a clarification of the patterns.... When the market drops to PRZ you need to decide what trigger to use. Your maximum loss is one tick under the PRZ or whatever your risk tolerance is. If the trade is too costly you pass on it. Good luck with your trading. {image}
Thanks Coreg!
I understand we could expect a shift in trend when point B is taken out. Trendline break is an extra confirmation.
But how is this compatible with the ABCD correction that we target so often?
In the example below after an ABCD correction into structure at golden zone, we would initiate a long after confirmation with for example a rotation candle.
But as with any ABCD, B was taken out and this confirms a trend shift, so we should look for a short?
Can you please clarify?
Do you agree that there's a conflict?
Is it just a matter of choosing which method you want to follow?
Thanks for your insights

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  • #40,911
  • May 25, 2018 4:23pm May 25, 2018 4:23pm
Eurjpy M5 update +12 market Stopped moving (pain complex correction)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,912
  • May 25, 2018 4:27pm May 25, 2018 4:27pm
Quoting evocpr19
{quote} Hope you could recover your loss. Wish all a nice WE.
No I stopped trading because I was a bit emotional.
Went out with my wife for a nice sauna instead
Nice weekend to you too
  • #40,913
  • May 25, 2018 5:02pm May 25, 2018 5:02pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
..When we believe the market is over bought or oversold on an emotional level we feel the market can't climb or drop further. This feeling manifests as fear and anxiety and we become hyper sensitive to sometimes seeing more weakness then there is and neglect the expectation, the order flow or everything else we know. This intensifies into abandoning our trade plan trying to catch a top or a bottom...
Thanks for that post!
Trying to catch top or bottom, I can't seem to shake this very bad habit.
Yesterday I experienced this.
Same lesson again: market can keep going as long as it damn well wants to go

EDIT: of course, with the SL in the right place this shouldn't be an issue. (although in this case it would have been hit..)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #40,914
  • May 25, 2018 5:20pm May 25, 2018 5:20pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} ... I'm going to make my trade plan with hard covers or better yet write it in stone ..so it hurts more when I smack myself and it might get through my tick scull.
  • #40,915
  • May 25, 2018 5:26pm May 25, 2018 5:26pm
Quoting pereiraalex
{quote} Lovelly setup. I love that setup because I have imprinted in my mind, seen lots of time huge bull runs start that way ( if its respecting the ratios for the pattern ). I am sorry to say PeterT, but you were not wrong. You don't have to go too much back, but if you backtest for that setup, you can find that it works alot of times. Its just the way it is. You are not going to go forward if you get panic bells everytime you lose a trade, or question everything you know. It can be perfect and you lose, and can be really sloppy and you win. just...
Thanks Alex I'll put the panic bells away.
NEXT.
  • #40,916
  • May 25, 2018 5:57pm May 25, 2018 5:57pm
Quoting Coreg2004
Those who chose today to trade AB=CD (maroon color) are big winners............ My fellow traders with today's presentation how I trade harmonic patterns and how I apply dynamic trend analysis I concluded harassing you with it as well as with Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Principle. I wish you all from the bottom of my heart many successful days in this endeavor. {image}
I may hope you mean you stop harassing us for now, for this week??
After Mr. Pip's videos, your posts are my most important guidance and source of knowledge.
I even bundled them in a separate file
I'm sure other traders benefit a lot from them as well.
Have a nice weekend and see you and your posts next week?!
  • #40,917
  • May 26, 2018 4:34am May 26, 2018 4:34am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Very good, HH-HL uptrend and LH-LL downtrend. Now please examine attachments and remember them forever and you will be fine. {image} {image}
Your posts are so helpful Coreg. I always download your charts and practice on USDJPY
Hoping to trade YM by the end of this year
  • #40,918
  • Edited 7:41am May 26, 2018 7:00am | Edited 7:41am
These advises should be written in gold, as i said before the best comments i have ever heard:
1)
Quote
We DO NOT predetermine an expectation failures and should never trade against one.

2)
Quote
There are no such things as reversals, everything is a correction.


To me, if i get it right, what these means are :
1)Don't try to predict the exhaustion point of Harmonics ( the "D" point).
2)Don't trade the correction, if you do so, then carefully apply its money management rules , BE at 38.2% ,trailing SL and target at 61.8% fib retracement (consider structures nearby).

Thank you Damian
  • #40,919
  • May 26, 2018 8:25am May 26, 2018 8:25am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} You do a fantastic job labeling those charts, helps a lot!
[quote=PeterT;11101498]{quote} I may hope you mean you stop harassing us for now, for this week??

[quote=KensTrader;11101987]{quote} Your posts are so helpful Coreg.

Thank you guys for a kind, appreciative words, it means a lot to me.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #40,920
  • Edited 3:16pm May 26, 2018 8:54am | Edited 3:16pm
Update on USDJPY weekly:
Quote
the last Swing up is the correction of the CD leg of the yellow ABCD and the Blue abcd at their completion ,which i expected to reverse at the Green line ,but it is extending and going even higher, now at the 61.8% of the yellow CD leg. it was just that, and i believe it will go to correction and comes to my level one AOI soon, before touching the upper channel boundery, where i am waiting to take long position there
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Weekly.PNG Size: 48 KB

Daily chart of same area:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Daily.PNG Size: 45 KB

EDITED :Coreg 2004 :if you agree we may here try to trade short on the basis of the daily main swing down, an abcd corrected to its golden zone and now at its c point, (Yellow CD leg becoming Blue ab leg and a main swing on a shorter term OF/TF ), but the best is to trade long, at AOI when both weekly and daily trend are in line and suggesting long. (weekly main swing is Red AB).
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