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90% of traders lose money! True or False?

  • #81
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:14pm Mar 10, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting vaidas7777
So please tell your opinion. I did it all what I talked about.
in short, psychology is irrelevant. Win-rate is irrelevant. martingale tactics are for newbs. Only thing that matters is the expectancy of the system and the discipline to execute it (within normal money management constraints).
  • #82
  • Edited 4:28pm Mar 10, 2012 4:15pm | Edited 4:28pm
Martingale is used only then system makes more than 70 percent positive trades. In addition only.

BTW this is gambling or not?

http://www.traders.lt/datas/users/15025-kabala.jpg

My expectancy of the system withuot martingale is positive, I do about 15 percent a day.
  • #83
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:18pm Mar 10, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Martingale is used only then system makes more than 70 percent positive trades. In addition only.
doesn't matter. Even a system with 70 percent positive trades can have 20 or more losers in a row making any martingale system completely useless. (That's called outliers)

No need to believe me, ask any statistics professor or read any statistics book.
  • #84
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:26pm Mar 10, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting vaidas7777
BTW this is gambling or not?
Yeah, the way you approach trading, it is for sure gambling. Buhu, and showing an equity curve of 60 trades is a joke (is most likely a lucky streak). Show me your equity curve after 10.000 trades, then that would be a basis for a serious discussion.
  • #85
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:33pm Mar 10, 2012 4:33pm
Mathematics is not your friend I see. Probabilities also. 10 000 trades? Broker will vanish with all those money...
  • #86
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:35pm Mar 10, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Mathematics is not your friend I see. Probabilities also. 10 000 trades? Broker will vanish with all those money...
Apparently man, I always had an F in maths. Please teach me how to do it right.
  • #87
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:42pm Mar 10, 2012 4:42pm
Calculate again probability to loose for example 6 times in a row in martingale.

Every time you have probability for 70 percent for succes... For each trade...
  • #88
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:50pm Mar 10, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Calculate again probability to loose for example 6 times in a row in martingale.

Every time you have probability for 70 percent for succes... For each trade...
man, that is why I said 20 losers are outliers / variance of results. Even if you have a 70 % chance over a set of 10.000 trades, this is just an AVERAGE. Example: Some trades might only have a chance o 30%-40%, most have a chance of 60-70% and some have a chance of 90% possibly making an AVERAGE of 70%. The outliers are then the high probabilities (90%) and the low probabilities (30%-40%) within this data set. Once you reach the low side of the bell curve, you are in big trouble with your martingale system, cause then the multiple losers in a row can and will happen.
And even if all trades really have a 70% chance of winning without any lucky and "bad luck" streaks within the data set, you have no way of knowing how they are distributed in the next 100 trades. Maybe the first 70 are all winners and the last 30 are all losers. Again, if you carry out thousands of trades during your life-time, this can and will happen eventually blowing up your martingale system. You need to prepare for the unlikely events, not for the likely ones.


Please read a stats book before talking crap.
  • #89
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:58pm Mar 10, 2012 4:58pm
Second time in this forum I get kick in ass... My ass is strong... And my numbers are 70 percent chance for every trade. Withuot martingale. Well, sometimes emotions shadow numbers. It takes time to see another side.
  • #90
  • Mar 10, 2012 5:00pm Mar 10, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Second time in this forum I get kick in ass... My ass is strong... And my numbers are 70 percent chance for every trade. Withuot martingale. Well, sometimes emotions shadow numbers. It takes time to see another side.
anyways, it's your money, dude. Just telling you in advance what will happen eventually.

happy trading.
  • #91
  • Mar 10, 2012 11:45pm Mar 10, 2012 11:45pm
Quoting clockwork71
I would venture to say that 90% is probably an accurate figure.
.....

I feel so fortunate to find your comment here.
Thanks for the thoughts.


.
  • #92
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:46am Mar 11, 2012 1:46am
Quoting vaidas7777
Second time in this forum I get kick in ass... My ass is strong... And my numbers are 70 percent chance for every trade. Withuot martingale. Well, sometimes emotions shadow numbers. It takes time to see another side.
It has been mathematically proven that any forms of martingale strategy will fail eventually. Your probable win of 70% does not tell you whether the next series of trade would be a winner or not. A long series of losses (Which will happen and it's only a matter of time) will wipe you out. For martingale to work, you must have unlimited money, probabilities of winning will not make any differences.

Go google up martingale or wizardofodds to read up more.
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #93
  • Mar 11, 2012 1:57am Mar 11, 2012 1:57am
Thought of sharing this article

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/apr...ading-20110403

"...An estimated 615,000 Americans are dabbling in foreign currency trading, encouraged by advertising from the two biggest U.S. brokers, FXCM Inc. and Gain Capital Holdings Inc., both based in New York.

Combined, FXCM and Gain have about 260,000 accounts, a third of them in the U.S.

These customers are losing money in spectacular fashion.

At FXCM, 75% to 77% of customers lost money each quarter last year, according to newly required disclosures to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. At Gain, which operates through http://www.forex.com, the number of unprofitable customers hovered between 72% and 79% every quarter last year, according to its filing...."
"Nature's law" is called "Reason". When perfectly understood by human it is
  • #94
  • Nov 16, 2017 11:16pm Nov 16, 2017 11:16pm
This attitude doesn't work in the first place, in a market or business. You can not hope to reliably make extraordinary returns without painstakingly defining up your objectives and taking the fundamental speculation arranging procedure to accomplish those objectives. Forex trading dangers not just incorporate mind blowing measure of instability traders could look with no earlier notice, yet additionally the way that traders have a lot of leverage available to them.
  • #95
  • May 14, 2018 1:04am May 14, 2018 1:04am
False https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11055814
Double the account
  • #96
  • May 14, 2018 6:47am May 14, 2018 6:47am
I am pretty sure that a lot more than 90% of the traders are losing money on a regular basis. Some people do profit, absolutely, but the majority lose their accounts.
  • #97
  • May 19, 2018 6:33am May 19, 2018 6:33am
Quoting mlawson71
I am pretty sure that a lot more than 90% of the traders are losing money on a regular basis. Some people do profit, absolutely, but the majority lose their accounts.
"some people do profit " yes it is. but how many people can make profit consistency from here there is any statistic ?
  • #98
  • Jun 10, 2018 2:45pm Jun 10, 2018 2:45pm
Quoting NathanAstel
{quote} "some people do profit " yes it is. but how many people can make profit consistency from here there is any statistic ?
If brokers would publish real, unflitered account statistics over a period of more than one year the results would be absolutly devastating and a desaster for their marketing departements. They would have a hard time to lure in new victims. That's the reason they do everything to keep that data locked.

All scientific studies lucking at retail trader profitability over a max of up to 2 year already show that more than 80% lose money, half of them the whole balance. After 5 year about 98% lose money.....after 10 years you will hardly find anyone profitable.

One major point why people don't get this is that luck combined with leverage, trading with large stops and small take profits, grid systems and martingale systems can over a limited period of time distort the picture completly and create the illusion of profitablity through skill. However, all these methods end in black swan event with a final margin call, making the retail trader lose the whole account or even with a negative balances that can far exceed their initial trading capital and ruin them for life....
  • #99
  • Jun 13, 2018 6:14am Jun 13, 2018 6:14am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} If brokers would publish real, unflitered account statistics over a period of more than one year the results would be absolutly devastating and a desaster for their marketing departements. They would have a hard time to lure in new victims. That's the reason they do everything to keep that data locked. All scientific studies lucking at retail trader profitability over a max of up to 2 year already show that more than 80% lose money, half of them the whole balance. After 5 year about 98% lose money.....after 10 years you will hardly find...
its a nice detail and got something new information , thanks for your nice reply.
  • #100
  • Jun 17, 2018 7:15pm Jun 17, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} If brokers would publish real, unflitered account statistics over a period of more than one year the results would be absolutly devastating and a desaster for their marketing departements. They would have a hard time to lure in new victims. That's the reason they do everything to keep that data locked. All scientific studies lucking at retail trader profitability over a max of up to 2 year already show that more than 80% lose money, half of them the whole balance. After 5 year about 98% lose money.....after 10 years you will hardly find...
Well said!
There is NO god.. Only the believers!
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