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  • #761
  • May 18, 2018 2:02am May 18, 2018 2:02am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} For some reason I can't imagine cpi getting a massive push if it's positive due to all this nafta nonsense because the BOC cannot hike until this is out the way..
or it could translate into a faster pace of hikes once it is out of the way if the economy starts to heat up and inflation plays with their 2% goal. But while Nafta is around it definitely wont be a player.

Keep an eye on sterling though as there is still short term sentiment at play and opportunity lurking
  • #762
  • May 18, 2018 2:13am May 18, 2018 2:13am
Quoting zorndyke
im not familiar with this term : "FX option expiries" can someone explain what is that mean and what the impact for the currency ? {quote}

FX options in the market having. They have an expiry where the trade is settled. If there are very large positions in hundreds of millions or even billions then price will gravitate towards the option price and there can be erratic movements as the battle ensues to protect the level.
  • #763
  • May 18, 2018 3:42am May 18, 2018 3:42am
I went long today via USD/JPY.


The reason behind the trade is that yields are good for usd and jpy cpi results were bad last night. Also trade talks with China and US remain in balance.

I read the daily opening news today via ransquawk which had all the info but I just did not add the dots as I am still adjusting to managing this account as well as using Mt4. I am still contemplating whether I will run trades on my own account but I don't want too much exposure.

Target for UJ is 111.300 which is close to the s2 pivot.
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  • #764
  • May 18, 2018 4:02am May 18, 2018 4:02am
Morgan Stanley recommend selling EUR/NZD at market (current spot 1.71), target 1.63 and a stop at 1.74
  • #765
  • May 18, 2018 4:24am May 18, 2018 4:24am
Quoting Samson85
I went long today via USD/JPY. The reason behind the trade is that yields are good for usd and jpy cpi results were bad last night. Also trade talks with China and US remain in balance. I read the daily opening news today via ransquawk which had all the info but I just did not add the dots as I am still adjusting to managing this account as well as using Mt4. I am still contemplating whether I will run trades on my own account but I don't want too much exposure. Target for UJ is 111.300 which is close to the s2 pivot. {image}

not sure how long you have been trading fundamentals, this trade you have on is lacking a catalyst. Japan CPI won't provide that unless there is a major deviation. best of luck anyways
  • #766
  • May 18, 2018 4:45am May 18, 2018 4:45am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} not sure how long you have been trading fundamentals, this trade you have on is lacking a catalyst. Japan CPI won't provide that unless there is a major deviation. best of luck anyways

See this is where you lack knowledge on fundamentals.

Did I say Japan data moves markets? Japan is currently in QE and the only thing that will matter is them reaaching their cpi target.

Now trading is about adding the dots together meaning strong vs weak. Usd has high yields and Japan has had bad data this week. The trade is a no brainer.
Trade talks are running smoothly as well between and China and America hence the jpy taking a beating this week as part the reason
  • #767
  • May 18, 2018 5:49am May 18, 2018 5:49am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} See this is where you lack knowledge on fundamentals. Did I say Japan data moves markets? Japan is currently in QE and the only thing that will matter is them reaaching their cpi target. Now trading is about adding the dots together meaning strong vs weak. Usd has high yields and Japan has had bad data this week. The trade is a no brainer. Trade talks are running smoothly as well between and China and America hence the jpy taking a beating this week as part the reason
I lack knowledge on fundamentals? i'm not the one who just opened a trade on a pair that's going nowhere at the moment!!! You don't know me, my skills, or anything else about me for that matter yet you insist i lack knowledge! Perhaps you should pull that finger out your ass and stop judging people who have anything to say about your trading, it isn't mature and akin to a teenager who can't control his emotions.

China trade talks going well!

"President Donald Trump on Thursday cast doubt on the prospect of successful trade talks with China, saying the Asian economic powerhouse has become “very spoiled” because it usually gets its way with the U.S." - does that sound like it's going well to you with one side telling the other side they have been spoiled!

China's core interests will not be compromised and they have stated this on several occasions. Unlike the rest of the world, China is far too large to be manipulated by America.

Japan has been trying to get to their 2% target for a very long time now unsuccessfully (years, not months). In other words having a worse CPI number isn't really anything new for the market to digest. Furthermore, a deviation of 0.1% isn't exactly market moving as you are currently finding out in your no brainer trade allegedly. Being a fundamental trader you should know that this type of deviation wont move the markets which ultimately proves you are really still very much inexperienced with this style of trading although you should be commended for trying as it is the only genuine profitable form of trading. Whats more important in data terms is the recent contraction data showing the economy shrank for the first time in 9 quarters on the 15th. This is much more significant than the CPI reading. If you look at your charts you will see that was a far greater opportunity than CPI.

keep pretending you are a pro at this. I am sure people will find out that you are still very much learning how to apply it. As a suggestion, get off your high horse and take criticism as input to improve, not as a tool to throw back nonsense. Apply fundamentals where they count and not just tagging on every piece of information that you deem to be important when clearly it isn't. If it were, your trade would be sitting happy in profit by now , is it?

anyway, i am not going to spend more time on your thread as you simply don't want contribution, only dictation to others. Advice to others, fundamental trading successfully should yield at least a 75% success rate. If he can't show that then he is still like you, learning.

good day to all
  • #768
  • Edited 9:41am May 18, 2018 6:21am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I lack knowledge on fundamentals? i'm not the one who just opened a trade on a pair that's going nowhere at the moment!!! You don't know me, my skills, or anything else about me for that matter yet you insist i lack knowledge! Perhaps you should pull that finger out your ass and stop judging people who have anything to say about your trading, it isn't mature and akin to a teenager who can't control his emotions. China trade talks going well! "President Donald Trump on Thursday cast doubt on the prospect of successful trade talks with China,...

Well everyone on here knows my skills because I post my trades from start to finish with a good success rate. Why not do the same on this thread if you're so confident?

It is very easy to criticise and judge another trader when the person you are criticising has showed vasts amounts of live successful fundamental trades and is now managing a client account which he has shown LOL!! #JustSaying!!

So I am guessing the service that I have paid for which delivers me my news is wrong? (It was only announced later that the Chinese denied the deal hence the jpy strength now!!) Please do yourself a favour and keep writing articles on fundamentals, without knowing how to apply them!!

There is know need for you to post because you have 0 trades to show!! Just another fundamental keyboard warrior!!!
  • #769
  • Edited 9:11am May 18, 2018 7:39am | Edited 9:11am
I just traded the CAD CPI live and we had a massive beat negatively on retail sales as well as negative CPI of course.

With Nafta not a done deal this is bad news for CAD!!

I believe one of the recommedations from the banks this was to long this as they predicted no nafta deal and poor cpi.

Only oil can give CAD a life line now

Trade is now risk free and targeting 1.5% on the account

I CLOSED FOR PROFIT AT THE R3 PIVOT. Making just over 1% on the account
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  • #770
  • Edited 9:35am May 18, 2018 7:45am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting Samson85
Morgan Stanley recommend selling EUR/NZD at market (current spot 1.71), target 1.63 and a stop at 1.74

I also took this trade recommendation from Morgan Stanley.

It is not a fully fundamental set up whatsoever but this pair has rallied like crazy over the last year and the 1 week chart will tell you that we're in need of a pull back. So while the rest are profit taking I will be shorting this

This a swing trade that could take some time on my personal account to minimise the exposure. Not a massive position due to the stop loss!!
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  • #771
  • May 18, 2018 9:17am May 18, 2018 9:17am
3 Trades today:

USD/JPY - CLOSED FOR 3 PIPS PROFIT PRIOR TO CAD TRADE LOL

EUR/NZD - CURRENTLY UP OVER 50 PIPS

USD/CAD - 58 PIPS BANKED
  • #772
  • May 18, 2018 10:09am May 18, 2018 10:09am
Quoting Samson85
Morgan Stanley recommend selling EUR/NZD at market (current spot 1.71), target 1.63 and a stop at 1.74
I am liking the likely weakness in the Euro but neutral on NZD as it has performed terribly bad with negative economic data in the past months. I am more confident in the Eur/Aud short.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #773
  • May 18, 2018 10:12am May 18, 2018 10:12am
Quoting Samson85
I went long today via USD/JPY. The reason behind the trade is that yields are good for usd and jpy cpi results were bad last night. Also trade talks with China and US remain in balance. I read the daily opening news today via ransquawk which had all the info but I just did not add the dots as I am still adjusting to managing this account as well as using Mt4. I am still contemplating whether I will run trades on my own account but I don't want too much exposure. Target for UJ is 111.300 which is close to the s2 pivot. {image}
That is probably a good trade.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #774
  • May 18, 2018 10:18am May 18, 2018 10:18am
Quoting Samson85
I just traded the CAD CPI live and we had a massive beat negatively on retail sales as well as negative CPI of course. With Nafta not a done deal this is bad news for CAD!! I believe one of the recommedations from the banks this was to long this as they predicted no nafta deal and poor cpi. Only oil can give CAD a life line now Trade is now risk free and targeting 1.5% on the account I CLOSED FOR PROFIT AT THE R3 PIVOT. Making just over 1% on the account {image} {image}
the CAD is looking shaky as NAFTA is looking more elusive than predicted. Still too early to think that the deal won't get done, but it doesn't get done... CAD will likely take a free fall dive lower.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #775
  • May 18, 2018 10:36am May 18, 2018 10:36am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} I am liking the likely weakness in the Euro but neutral on NZD as it has performed terribly bad with negative economic data in the past months. I am more confident in the Eur/Aud short.

To be honest I am bearish on the NZD mainly because the central bank said they could hike or cut rates equally which caused the NZD to tank last interest rate release meeting. The reason why I think the NZD has comeback to life is that it is really oversold right now. Look at the 1 day chart for NZD/USD. The pair has tanked for 1 month now and traders need to take profit and advantage of the cheap price.
  • #776
  • May 18, 2018 10:37am May 18, 2018 10:37am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} the CAD is looking shaky as NAFTA is looking more elusive than predicted. Still too early to think that the deal won't get done, but it doesn't get done... CAD will likely take a free fall dive lower.
Long term USD/JPY seems a good trade due to dollar strength, but seeing as JPY is safe haven pair there is an element of risk.
  • #777
  • May 18, 2018 10:40am May 18, 2018 10:40am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} the CAD is looking shaky as NAFTA is looking more elusive than predicted. Still too early to think that the deal won't get done, but it doesn't get done... CAD will likely take a free fall dive lower.

NAFTA is a massive concern because if a deal does not get reached then the central bank will have to cut rates.

I expect from next week for the CAD to be bearish but this will depend on how oil does as well.
  • #778
  • May 18, 2018 10:42am May 18, 2018 10:42am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Long term USD/JPY seems a good trade due to dollar strength, but seeing as JPY is safe haven pair there is an element of risk.
although the JPY traditionally has been a safe haven, I think the fundamental picture will taking a bigger hold of the currency. With worsening economic and inflation targets underperforming BOJ's prediction will likely force the central bank to stay the course a little longer than expected. Though, the BOJ made it clear that they aren't going to unwind QEE anytime soon. Likely, the markets will start to believe them this time around.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #779
  • May 18, 2018 10:43am May 18, 2018 10:43am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} NAFTA is a massive concern because if a deal does not get reached then the central bank will have to cut rates. I expect from next week for the CAD to be bearish but this will depend on how oil does as well.
I don't expect the BOC to cut rates in any likelyhood of an NAFTA failure, more so that it will hinder the central bank from any further hikes which also is bearish.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #780
  • May 18, 2018 10:50am May 18, 2018 10:50am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} I don't expect the BOC to cut rates in any likelyhood of an NAFTA failure, more so that it will hinder the central bank from any further hikes which also is bearish.
Lol of course they would have to rates. They cannot afford to lose that deal because it will weaken the economy.

You have to remember that is a massive deal they have with the US.
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