Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1426 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #28,501
  • Edited 7:41am May 17, 2018 7:18am | Edited 7:41am
Mr T.

I'm not sure if you have tested this out with the Dead Zone UC.......but I have had much better success when "ignoring" the first trigger break and ONLY trading the 2nd (opposite) trigger break.

EDIT: CAD news typically comes out 30 minutes after the Dead Zone starts......this allows for the first trigger to happen and then we catch the bigger move due to the news release on the 2nd trigger. Tomorrow there is some RED High Impact Cad news (and lots of Medium Impact news) coming out 30 minutes after DZ starts.....we'll see what happens. Obviously this isn't true all the time but I have noticed a pretty good pattern. It has done well for me so far.

EDIT #2: Today was another good example....Upper Trigger fail first, got +5 out the bottom end.
  • #28,502
  • May 17, 2018 7:18am May 17, 2018 7:18am
Hmmm UC gave you the pips and more.. I didn't trade it. Just watched it Billy's style lol

Had a strong bias north...
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  • #28,503
  • Edited 8:02am May 17, 2018 7:23am | Edited 8:02am
Ok. TP not reached for 0.05 pips . I traded the backward movement with hedging and i have recovered the loss and gained 7-8 net pips.
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  • #28,504
  • May 17, 2018 7:24am May 17, 2018 7:24am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} That's how I trade it. Pure Wick-Zone. If the break low happened first though, you'be be in a counter.
Yes Lem. If you going purely with the method. It would have been a countertrade. But since the candle was already big enough, there is a high chance price will ''breath'' a little and retrace. So I ignored the first trigger short.

I am keeping my ''analysis'' as basic as possible. I have been reducing my confirmations to the bare minimum and it helps me to trade what I see.
  • #28,505
  • May 17, 2018 7:44am May 17, 2018 7:44am
UC a no-go (for me) as a Dead Zone candidate.

We had a doji and although I will trade a doji, it will only be if it it has additional information attached, ie an S+D Zone or whatever.

For me, I had three candidates: GN, GA and GU. All similar profile, with PA sitting on top of a major Demand Zone, giving strong Long Bias. The decider was the spread, which is poor on GA and especially GN while insignificant on Cable. So Cable it was.

Never a doubt. Technically a WZ Long but as it was another Doji situation, I basically entered on momentum up and out of the Demand Zone.

Dead Zone
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It also helped that I had just run a HOLO out of the set-up and had a feel for how price was moving.
  • #28,506
  • May 17, 2018 7:49am May 17, 2018 7:49am
I had a quick look at some screens there and at the moment, my list of DZ pairs are (in no particular order):

UC, S&P, F40, EJ, GN, GA, UJ, CJ, GOLD, UNok, GU.
  • #28,507
  • May 17, 2018 7:51am May 17, 2018 7:51am
Quoting samuel2133
{quote} Yes Lem. If you going purely with the method. It would have been a countertrade. But since the candle was already big enough, there is a high chance price will ''breath'' a little and retrace. So I ignored the first trigger short. I am keeping my ''analysis'' as basic as possible. I have been reducing my confirmations to the bare minimum and it helps me to trade what I see.
Yep. I know you know this now, the comment was kinda' aimed at those others who may be reading.

I have no issue with having a bias in my direction and will often ignore an initial move one way if it's not the way I am going to be looking for.
  • #28,508
  • May 17, 2018 7:58am May 17, 2018 7:58am
Fantastic, Lem, fantastic.

Little question: is it possible to download you sup/dem indicator and the H1 high/low?
  • #28,509
  • May 17, 2018 8:01am May 17, 2018 8:01am
Quoting lemercenaire
I had a quick look at some screens there and at the moment, my list of DZ pairs are (in no particular order): UC, S&P, F40, EJ, GN, GA, UJ, CJ, GOLD, UNok, GU.
Am trying to wrap my head around the dead zone trades but the more am reading the more it becomes confusing. A few pages back you promised to give a simple explanation of the method....still looking forward to it
  • #28,510
  • May 17, 2018 8:01am May 17, 2018 8:01am
Some observation with DP+ dead zones with Lem's bias. I see a lot of confluence of factors. Very similar situation on GA and GU.
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  • #28,511
  • May 17, 2018 8:07am May 17, 2018 8:07am
Quoting bojack34
Mr T. I'm not sure if you have tested this out with the Dead Zone UC.......but I have had much better success when "ignoring" the first trigger break and ONLY trading the 2nd (opposite) trigger break. EDIT: CAD news typically comes out 30 minutes after the Dead Zone starts......this allows for the first trigger to happen and then we catch the bigger move due to the news release on the 2nd trigger. Tomorrow there is some RED High Impact Cad news (and lots of Medium Impact news) coming out 30 minutes after DZ starts.....we'll see what happens. Obviously...
EDIT #2: Today was another good example....Upper Trigger fail first, got +5 out the bottom end.

Erm...no I don't think it did? There was no upper trigger to fail.

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Taking aside the Doji factor, the entry would have been on the drop out of the Upper WZ...

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The Dead Zone is designed to be traded as a Wick Zone play. Not using the WZ technique and only trading the outside breaks completely skews the stats.

I'm not saying you can't trade it as outside breaks only - Mr-T does so very successfully, or at least he did when he started out, I know he uses more WZ now - however that is not a DZ play.
  • #28,512
  • May 17, 2018 8:13am May 17, 2018 8:13am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} EDIT #2: Today was another good example....Upper Trigger fail first, got +5 out the bottom end. Erm...no I don't think it did? There was no upper trigger to fail. {image} Taking aside the Doji factor, the entry would have been on the drop out of the Upper WZ... {image} The Dead Zone is designed to be traded as a Wick Zone play. Not using the WZ technique and only trading the outside breaks completely skews the stats. I'm not saying you can't trade it as outside breaks only - Mr-T does so very successfully, or at least he did when...
There was for me, price came within .3 pips from the high which triggered a trade for me when taking Spread into consideration.
  • #28,513
  • May 17, 2018 8:16am May 17, 2018 8:16am
Quoting Inception12
{quote} Am trying to wrap my head around the dead zone trades but the more am reading the more it becomes confusing. A few pages back you promised to give a simple explanation of the method....still looking forward to it
Post #28350
  • #28,514
  • May 17, 2018 8:22am May 17, 2018 8:22am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} You've done really - best thing you can do is close 100% and walk away happy.
Thanks Claudia
  • #28,515
  • May 17, 2018 8:31am May 17, 2018 8:31am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} There was for me, price came within .3 pips from the high which triggered a trade for me when taking Spread into consideration.
Just had a quick cursory look back to the beginning of the month or so.

14 set-ups. 9 straight and clear. 2 fail and recover on counter. 3 uncertain as to detail without going into the lower tf to see which move came first. However, all those three candles and also the 2 fails, were highly dubious to say the least, being very small ranges and showing PA that you'd have to be very naive to take.

Anyway, tbh, I don't really care, I was just satisfying my own morbid curiosity.

Each can play it how they see it.
  • #28,516
  • May 17, 2018 8:46am May 17, 2018 8:46am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Post #28350
thanks alot...dont know how i missed that
  • #28,517
  • May 17, 2018 8:50am May 17, 2018 8:50am
Quoting claudia1
@ Lem - would love to see this back to d/p and t/l area make for some 13.30 selling. {image}
Wow wow wow we got there - now I'm thinking ...
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  • #28,518
  • May 17, 2018 9:08am May 17, 2018 9:08am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Just had a quick cursory look back to the beginning of the month or so. 14 set-ups. 9 straight and clear. 2 fail and recover on counter. 3 uncertain as to detail without going into the lower tf to see which move came first. However, all those three candles and also the 2 fails, were highly dubious to say the least, being very small ranges and showing PA that you'd have to be very naive to take. Anyway, tbh, I don't really care, I was just satisfying my own morbid curiosity. Each can play it how they see it.
  • #28,519
  • May 17, 2018 9:14am May 17, 2018 9:14am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Wow wow wow we got there - now I'm thinking ... {image}
Don't think...do!
  • #28,520
  • May 17, 2018 9:16am May 17, 2018 9:16am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Don't think...do!
In at 10 see where we go.
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