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  • #721
  • May 14, 2018 3:19pm May 14, 2018 3:19pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Actually that screenshot was taken after the market closed on Friday. That spread is the weekend rate. My average spread on USDCHF is >1.0. But thanks for looking out. - Ric {image} {image}

Lol RIC, but seeing as you're a swing trader I don't think spreads really matter.

Dollar index seems to have bounced not far from 92. What plays have you got lined up at the moment?

I UK employment will create good swing trades for gbp and eur/usd.

Have you looked at the eur/sek 1 day chart?

Aud/nzd looks attractive.

Nzd/USD via short could take a beating until next rbnz meeting.
  • #722
  • May 14, 2018 5:51pm May 14, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol RIC, but seeing as you're a swing trader I don't think spreads really matter. Dollar index seems to have bounced not far from 92. What plays have you got lined up at the moment? I UK employment will create good swing trades for gbp and eur/usd. Have you looked at the eur/sek 1 day chart? Aud/nzd looks attractive. Nzd/USD via short could take a beating until next rbnz meeting.
Hey Samson,

While I agree that a slight deviation in spreads (0.3 or less) does not have a major influence on my over all trading, I do take my spreads & commission charges seriously. The more I spend the less I make and that money over time will have a impact. Cost of doing business in Forex & investing in general is low over all in the beginning but as the accounts grows the cost goes up on a per trade, per pip basis. This is a business & I want to keep expenses down.

If you trade micro lots & your spread is 1 on EURUSD you pay about $0.10 USD, Mini is $1.00 & Full Lot $10.00. If you pay 0.1 on EURUSD $0.01 USD, Mini is $0.10 & Full Lot $1.00. That is a $9.00 difference. Average that savings across the 7 pairs I trade regularly with about 3 trades per month each that is about 252 trades a year X $9.00 each = $2268 a year per lot traded. That does not include commissions and interest charges. That extra $2200 equates to a loss in earning potential of about $2 per pip in this example. As your account grows, so does the loss in earning potential. So yes, spreads matter.

DXY is heading down towards the 200 MA. Over all its still in a down trend & I do not think it will change just yet. I believe the small bounce this week over the 200 MA is mostly due to profit taking. I just don't see a reason for it to turn dramatically.

GBPUSD is flat. I don't see anything tech wise until there is a break of this 7 day range. With the upcoming GBP Average Earnings & USD Core Retail Sales on the same day, I am looking for some downside movement, breaking the stagnation. We shall see.

NZDUSD has moved about 80 pips or so past the close of my short last week. I thought it was done but it etched out a bit more. However, it is hitting another wall at the 0.69000 area. If it breaks that level, it still has 100-150 pips left until major support at 0.68000 - 0.67000 level. I myself will not take that trade because I already closed a position with no ad-ons. Had I placed an ad-on instead of closing I would still be short for a bit longer. Now I will wait for a retrace and then continuation or reversal.

I do not really look at cross pairs and usually stick to the majors. I'm not comfortable with crosses other than JPY crosses like EURJPY & GBPJPY which I trade from time to time.

I am going to give my WTI Oil trade a few more days. If does not break above 72.00 I will close it. It has been playing with 71.50 for a week & I dont like how it looks.

Over all I am in a wait and see pattern till we get some movement tech wise or some fundamentals.

Speaking on fundamentals, the RBA minutes coming out in a few hours are most likely still going to be dovish. My opinion is the AUD will continue its 3 month decline for now.

GBP Average Earnings is going to be flat or worse IMO.

USD Core Retail Sales on Tuesday Morning may be the push we need to break some of this stagnation on GBPUSD and EURUSD.

So on that note I am looking for Tuesdays EOD to help set up some trades.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #723
  • May 15, 2018 12:03am May 15, 2018 12:03am
Morning all,

I am currently in 3 positions:

 

  1. EUR/SEK (From yesterday)
  2. NZD/USD (From yesterday)
  3. GBP/NZD (Entry taken this morning - strong resistance level from may 10th which it has broken. Will set this to break-even upon release of UK data)

EUR/SEK has some risk as we have NOK GDP Data out later so I will set the trade to break even. SEK is heavy correlated with NOK.

Fundamental reason for trades are in yesterdays entries.

PS. The dollar seems to have tricked everyone as the DXY has pulled back and wiped out all of EUR/USD gains yesterday!!!

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  • #724
  • Edited 10:39am May 15, 2018 12:29am | Edited 10:39am
UK BIAS

SELL: EUR (poor data, dovish ECB, political 5* woes), GBP (hard Brexit, poor expected data), JPY (slow inflation, QE to continue)

BUY: Nothing

No pairs will be chosen for this session, technically I could pair these with the USD however my confidence in it has wained, but today there is a lot of data being released for most pairs which will be able to re-confirm/adjust my biases for the remainder of the week

UPDATE

3 trading opportunities presented itself for trading the news which resulted in:

 

  1. EUR: -7 pips
  2. GBP + 7 pips
  3. USD: +18 pips

Although a positive +4 pips for the day I was in fact in the red because of differences in lot sizing, but for the sake of consistency, +4 pips

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #725
  • May 15, 2018 12:40am May 15, 2018 12:40am
Quoting forexin101
UK BIAS SELL: EUR (poor daata, dovish ECB, political 5* woes), GBP (hard Brexit, poor expected data), JPY (slow inflation, QE to continue) BUY: Nothing No pairs will be chosen for this session, technically I could pair these with the USD however my confidence in it has wained, but today there is a lot of data being released for most pairs which will be able to re-confirm/adjust my biases for the remainder of the week
What he said

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #726
  • May 15, 2018 2:00am May 15, 2018 2:00am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Hi Yes I have done Jarratt's course and I have to say the feeling was the same as yours. I am using Ransquawk still as it helps provide me with analysis and fundamentals all in one place. Are you still a member? And are you trading full time? The markets are currently the best time to be using fundamentals as there as so many plays going on
Hi

No im not a member of Ransquark an more i preferred the Reuters terminal. I was using it more for swing trades on the 4h charts but i was still only taking between 50 and 100 pips a week. I also found that i could be 100 pips in profit in the morning and stopped out by lunch time.

Im trying to find out how i can take more pips trading during the day be in and out of a trade in a few hours maybe a day at the most.

Yes im trading full time.
  • #727
  • May 15, 2018 2:48am May 15, 2018 2:48am
Quoting Samson85
Morning all, I am currently in 3 positions: EUR/SEK (From yesterday) NZD/USD (From yesterday) GBP/NZD (Entry taken this morning - strong resistance level from may 10th which it has broken. Will set this to break-even upon release of UK data) EUR/SEK has some risk as we have NOK GDP Data out later so I will set the trade to break even. SEK is heavy correlated with NOK. Fundamental reason for trades are in yesterdays entries. PS. The dollar seems to have tricked everyone as the DXY has pulled back and wiped out all of EUR/USD gains yesterday!!! {image}...
Hello sir nice to meet you i love to learn more from you sir about Fundamental Trading Thanks
  • #728
  • Edited 4:03am May 15, 2018 3:13am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Samson85
Morning all, I am currently in 3 positions: EUR/SEK (From yesterday) NZD/USD (From yesterday) GBP/NZD (Entry taken this morning - strong resistance level from may 10th which it has broken. Will set this to break-even upon release of UK data) EUR/SEK has some risk as we have NOK GDP Data out later so I will set the trade to break even. SEK is heavy correlated with NOK. Fundamental reason for trades are in yesterdays entries. PS. The dollar seems to have tricked everyone as the DXY has pulled back and wiped out all of EUR/USD gains yesterday!!! {image}...

EUR/SEK trade closed as the squawk just made me aware we have hawkish central speakers talking. This trade resulted in a minor loss.

Closed out GBP/NZD Also.

NZD/USD trade more than coves the losses
  • #729
  • May 15, 2018 3:20am May 15, 2018 3:20am
Quoting Brettrogerss
{quote} Hi No im not a member of Ransquark an more i preferred the Reuters terminal. I was using it more for swing trades on the 4h charts but i was still only taking between 50 and 100 pips a week. I also found that i could be 100 pips in profit in the morning and stopped out by lunch time. Im trying to find out how i can take more pips trading during the day be in and out of a trade in a few hours maybe a day at the most. Yes im trading full time.
Whats the cost for Reuters?

Well in order to tak 50 to 100 pips you either need to know the sentiment or trade risk events (Which takes experience and practice)
  • #730
  • May 15, 2018 3:27am May 15, 2018 3:27am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Whats the cost for Reuters? Well in order to tak 50 to 100 pips you either need to know the sentiment or trade risk events (Which takes experience and practice)
Reuters is around £70, i have been able to trade the new using the Reuters calendar, it updates instantly after a news release. Yea its that getting the daily sentiment right that i battle a bit with.
  • #731
  • May 15, 2018 3:28am May 15, 2018 3:28am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} EUR/SEK trade closed as the squawk just made me aware we have hawkish central speakers talking. This trade resulted in a minor loss.
I hope you also got out of that GN trade?
  • #732
  • May 15, 2018 4:04am May 15, 2018 4:04am
Quoting suttos
{quote} I hope you also got out of that GN trade?
I did but not in good time as the data was in line but the market is taking it as bad.

I wont be entering anymore positions today
  • #733
  • May 15, 2018 4:08am May 15, 2018 4:08am
Quoting Samson85
Morning all, I am currently in 3 positions: EUR/SEK (From yesterday) NZD/USD (From yesterday) GBP/NZD (Entry taken this morning - strong resistance level from may 10th which it has broken. Will set this to break-even upon release of UK data) EUR/SEK has some risk as we have NOK GDP Data out later so I will set the trade to break even. SEK is heavy correlated with NOK. Fundamental reason for trades are in yesterdays entries. PS. The dollar seems to have tricked everyone as the DXY has pulled back and wiped out all of EUR/USD gains yesterday!!! {image}...

Closed out NZD/USD for profits

Closed out GBP/NZD on a loss

EUR/SEK has since risen rapidly since I closed it but when you have central banl speakers talking - leaving the trade open is somewhat gambling if you cannot predict whether they will be hawkish or dovish. In this scenario I could not as they are raising rates but yet the currency is devaluing

Was not risking a loss for anything!!!
  • #734
  • May 15, 2018 4:46am May 15, 2018 4:46am
I will be reentering EUR/SEK tomorrow as we have another 2 speakers later today.

The speaker was hawkish but later said its not time to Hike which caused the sek to lose strength vs the EURO which I was just made aware of (Was focused on GBP employment)

There has been talk of EUR/SEK reaching 11.000 in the coming months and the 1 day chart indicates it would be a beautiful swing as it came of last months support two days ago.
  • #735
  • May 15, 2018 7:21am May 15, 2018 7:21am
I wonder how accurate this is:


Hmmmm....
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  • #736
  • May 15, 2018 7:35am May 15, 2018 7:35am
Both Retail Sales came out negative and yet the USD is still Strong. The USD must still be stronger than what people think.
  • #737
  • Edited 8:25am May 15, 2018 7:46am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting bojack34
Both Retail Sales came out negative and yet the USD is still Strong. The USD must still be stronger than what people think.
Nope yields are strong.

I read it this morning but I disregarded it thinking UK employment would dictate market, but the numbers came out in line.

The next fundamental the big boys took was Yields which has had massive impact on dollar recently.
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  • #738
  • May 15, 2018 7:56am May 15, 2018 7:56am
Hi Samson,

I see that you are trading some exotic, what about Turkish Lira & Polish Zloty? Both are bearish technically and fundamentally. Erdogan advocates low interest rate and the upcoming election in June he is most likely to remain in power. all xxxTRY chart are basically at uncharted historic high
  • #739
  • May 15, 2018 8:04am May 15, 2018 8:04am
Quoting Clivethien
Hi Samson, I see that you are trading some exotic, what about Turkish Lira & Polish Zloty? Both are bearish technically and fundamentally. Erdogan advocates low interest rate and the upcoming election in June he is most likely to remain in power. all xxxTRY chart are basically at uncharted historic high

I was discussing this with the analyst at Ran as EUR/TRY has a trend like DOW did last year.

My only issue is that my broker does not do hard stop losses, meaning the wrong move could take out my stop blow my account out.
  • #740
  • May 15, 2018 10:54am May 15, 2018 10:54am
I mentioned before that I closed my EUR/SEK trade due there being 3 central bank speakers for the SEK today.

Well look at the chart below (I normally trade speeches like this which makes me a lot of pips as well).

Although I would not have got stopped out based on where my stop was you never know what a speaker might say as all the speakers today have been positive and negative hence the up and down movement.

The reason why traders lose money is because they need to understand that a chart represents real life events. Forexin101 has provided chart examples on this thread showing news headlines on the chart in relation to the moves!! I feel bad for anyone who was trading EUR/SEK with a 20 pip stop loss with 3% risk
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