Diversified Trend Trading Approach

The World as we know it comes from Inside Out....Not Outside In. When we agree in our hallucinations...we call that reality. Time to revisit consciousness just to remind us of our very human biases.

“perception is reality” , not what is real but what we think is real .

Spot on D........and you can change the reality by incorporating new info and experiences into that soft squashy stuff we have in our skull. A reality is unique to the observer and a direct result of how we interpret information. Our universe (or more precisely each of our own universes) is information theoretic in origin. A shared reality in which we will all agree is vastly wider :-)

From the famous theoretical physicist John Wheeler who spawned so many of the great minds - "It from bit symbolizes the idea that every item of the physical world has at bottom — at a very deep bottom, in most instances — an immaterial source and explanation; that which we call reality arises in the last analysis from the posing of yes-no questions and the resistering of equipment-evoked responses; in short, that all things physical are information-theoretic in origin and that this is a participatory universe."

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LOL, your text signature is great!

Hehehehehe. That is my BS filter I use on this forum :-)

wheeler said it so well, "We live on an island surrounded by a sea of ignorance. As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance."

If we dig deeper in existentialist themes, we can end up like Sartre.

“Do you think that I count the days? There is only one day left, always starting over: it is given to us at dawn and taken away from us at dusk.”
― Jean-Paul Sartre

“I want to leave, to go somewhere where I should be really in my place, where I would fit in . . . but my place is nowhere; I am unwanted.”
― Jean-Paul Sartre, Nausea

“Hell is—other people!”
― Jean-Paul Sartre, No Exit

So let's come back to our market mirages, shall we?

We need to drop weekly timeframe because sample size would be too small to backtest.

Daily and hourly, methinks.

Let's brain storm further - I will describe long version only - for shorts is vice versa:

1. Daily SDC shows us the way.
We only look for long signals when SDC is up and price is in lower half of SDC.

Let's examine period on EUR NZD from 13.12.2017 where price entered lower half. Marked in vertical red line



2. On hourly we look for cross overs of Kaufmanns MA in direction of the daily SDC.

3. We draw SDC on hourly to nearest high and create SL.



4. Redrawing SDC to new highs, we make trailing SL till happy end where price is crossing lower hourly SDC.



Is it something we want to backtest?

...and when you will open barber shop, please consider this name for it:

Hair Force One

each of us has our own perception in any moment, minute, hr, etc

Sorry for the delay R. Will get to it soon :-)

An illuminating exerpt from a great read from Helen Czerski

"We live in the middle of the timescales, and sometimes it’s hard to take the rest of time seriously. It’s not just the difference between now and then, it’s the vertigo you get when you think about what “now” actually is. It could be a millionth of a second, or a year. Your perspective is completely different when you’re looking at incredibly fast events or glacially slow ones. But the difference hasn’t got anything to do with how things are changing; it’s just a question of how long they take to get there. And where is “there”? It is equilibrium, a state of balance. Left to itself, nothing will ever shift from this final position because it has no reason to do so. At the end, there are no forces to move anything, because they’re all balanced. They physical world, all of it, only ever has one destination: equilibrium."

The Nerds are right. Maths and physics makes life beautiful :-)

Just remember that it is not necessary to have a knowledge of complex mathematics to be a physicist. Maths is simply a tool that is useful to model your reality so that others can agree on the outcomes and that those results can be replicated. The tool is eminently easier when dealing with linear systems but quickly becomes intractable when delving into complexity. Just the sheer variety of interpretations of complexity quickly render maths problematic and can lead you down the garden path for your entire life. You don't have to devote your life to string theory *tongue in cheek*...but you get the idea.

The most important pre-requisite is to have a love of life and it's complexity. Start bouncing around ideas in your head about this complex amazing physical place in the same way you do to these markets.

Can you see the same principle being applied in permaculture or any natural ecology and that being deployed by diversified systems? Ask yourself the hows and whys? Can you see the same principle being applied by termites that build a termite mound to that being deployed by any unique emergent structure in a complex system. Ask yourself the hows and whys?

The best physicists are those that simply use their own unique methods to closely study this world. Ultimately the trader, the gardener and the physicist etc. etc. etc. are the same beasts interrogating a complex system. They are all just different examples of the same thing...... inquisitive enquirers.

The history of science has been directed towards the low hanging fruit of linear systems that through a method of reduction helps to answer the very smallest scales and the very largest scales. The journey has really only just begun and will be a long winded exercise as non-linear complexity takes a life on of its own that is dynamic and ever changing. The next phase of inquiry is into chaos, complexity and emergence.....the really hard stuff that life seems to have a very good handle on and allows us to ponder on this post for example. For this realm, the mathematics is not going to help you *much* and it will slow you down to a crawl.......but your insight from inquiry into complexity and your ability to draw comparative references will allow you to exponentially bound ahead in your quest:-)

Start being enthralled and amazed with life. For example have a look at the fundamental principles of a neuron and an electronic transistor. Don't be put off by the different architecture....just examine the central pillar of the design. Different substrate but same process. All our best examples are just methods to mimic natural processes. From stealth design.....to artificial intelligence etc. Just by observing natural systems in detail gives you a great foothold to interrogate complexity....such as these markets. Let the mathematics come later when you want to share your ideas....but invest your efforts in understanding this world better yourself.

Hi R..........ok this is about debating so here goes :-)

We already have successful systems....and we don't want new systems that alter this dynamic. Therefore this system approach is to be thought of as a new system for the blend at the moment. If it proves to be really powerful then we can lift its status to one of our primary systems.

The logic of this system needs to be significantly different to our current approaches to give us non-correlated benefits....hence in this matter I think the weekly timeframe is critical as it provides the filter under a dynamic universe to decide where to invest our efforts. The principle surrounds the notion that there are particular points in time in market conditions where swing trading using momentum is more successful than others. Using a weekly chart we plot those regions where we think this phenomenon exists in terms of overall market structure. We use the weekly timeframe on MT4 simply because it has a bit more statistical meaning than the monthly due to the fact that our data history is not sufficient to interpret market structure with fidelity using the Monthly timeframe.

This is not about trade frequency....but in this instance it is about trade precision....or at least we want to test the possibility that an approach such as this beats an effective random entry. Our current EDTT is more about trade frequency when we have what we regard as a significant breakout on the M30 timeframe. By having an alternate logic and periodicity of trade frequency, this is going to help in shaping non-correlated benefits.



How about weekly shows us the way and the Kaufmann crossover on weekly tells us when to drill down to possibly execute on the m30 or H1 timeframe to reduce holding costs of trade duration. ?

.

If we use the weekly as our guide then our pinpointing should be much closer to the lower or upper SDC than halfway. I suggest we use a 10% zone on the lower or upper SDC to dictate when we should become interested in the instrument. We are working on the principle of mean reversion back into the direction of the primary trend.....so midway on the SDC is the mean regression. We want to have a significant excursion away from that zone.


Applying the logic of the weekly it is till too early to confirm a higher high on the weekly to suggest the current swing is still intact. We have missed the boat as point A is where we should have been locked and loaded to let fly with longs. We might have another opportunity if the swing remains in tact and price is hovering around the lowest SDC....but until then nada.



That will force us to move onto to other better examples in our dynamic universe.

News from the front:

AUD NZD:

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Nikkei:

Jolly good Sergeant Major. Keep the lads feet dry and give those damn Jerries a what for!!!. Corporal....where are my cucumber sandwiches? :-)



Not much happening over here in the Dardanelles :-)



R....can you please shoot me through the the Kaufmann's MA indicator you use? I can't put my finger on it. Thanks in advance. C

Here you go.

Thanks very much R :-)

Ok R I concede. I have been spending a bit of time trying to apply the logic that I have been spewing forth regarding this new system.....and it sux. Your variations are probably much sounder mate. I think I should stick to knitting for the moment until I am in a better frame of mind to attack it. Sorry for the run around :-)

Paganinis variation on one string

PS...have a look at your emails. Pretty efficient momentum identifier with no SDC. Might be worth having a look at. Very simple to apply and efficient in capturing momentum.....limited lagging.....performance exit...no stops....trade risk 1%.....ATR position sizing....heavily diversified :-)

Example:



Example short range backtest on random date selection on EURUSD 20/5/2003 to 1/8/2003 with 0.5% trade risk.....Kaboom!!!!!







This is where it started taking off into the stratosphere :-)

[quote=Copernicus;11058892]Ok R I concede. I have been spending a bit of time trying to apply the logic that I have been spewing forth regarding this new system.....and it sux. Your variations are probably much sounder mate. I think I should stick to knitting for the moment until I am in a better frame of mind to attack it. Sorry for the run around :-)

that's still where I am till I get more balanced
thankyou just for being here

[quote=nimtrader;11059249] I'm not going anywhere Nim. At the moment I am looking at a spiderweb aka Robert the Bruce. If he can do it....so can I :-)