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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #28,221
  • May 14, 2018 8:36am May 14, 2018 8:36am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} @Inception12 the "limbo" technically is the Hedging. What you do it's to counter-balance the bad trade, if i understood correct... So if one goes bad and the market change direction, you change direction too and instead of taking a SL you can turn your loss in a BE or in a winning trade In the image attached, the long is your loosing trade, so you go short and see you are counter-balancing the bad trade {image}
if you have to counter to put a bad trade in limbo you are going to "negative" what ever the amount of the range was. So for example if the range of the 08-15 bar was 15 pips and your Upper Trigger broke and then price went back down and it broke thru your Lower Trigger..........Billy will put in a trade at the lower trigger and then his overall trade set will be at -15 pips............he will then stay at -15 pips no matter what happens to price.............He will then look for another Bar that he uses to wait for another trigger to be broken and try to get those -15 pips back, usually 5 pips at a time. Don't get greedy. This method is all about the strike rate, not about getting tons of pips. His pip target is always 5 pip/points......he uses 1% per pip so when he says he got 5 points....he really got 5%.
  • #28,222
  • May 14, 2018 8:38am May 14, 2018 8:38am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} if you have to counter to put a bad trade in limbo you are going to "negative" what ever the amount of the range was. So for example if the range of the 08-15 bar was 15 pips and your Upper Trigger broke and then price went back down and it broke thru your Lower Trigger..........Billy will put in a trade at the lower trigger and then his overall trade set will be at -15 pips............he will then stay at -15 pips no matter what happens to price.............He will then look for another Bar that he uses to wait for another trigger to be...
Thank you very much! So a trade can stay also three days in the limbo, until you don't reach the TP or at least the BE, right?
  • #28,223
  • May 14, 2018 8:41am May 14, 2018 8:41am
Last question please then i think i'm done with the basics. If the 4:00 am bar is broken, not at 4:15 but at 8:00, the trade is valid? Or we don't take the trade if the breakout doesn't occur in the zone of the 15 minutes?

All this, only on aud/usd? Or any pair?
  • #28,224
  • May 14, 2018 8:45am May 14, 2018 8:45am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} What you do is wait for London Session to begin. Then the 1st M15 candle to form after London Opens will be your "Range". The High will be your upper trigger and the Low will be your lower trigger. You trade the break immediately when price breaks a trigger. (don't wait for a candle close). You will then go for 5 pips plus spread. You stop loss will be the Opposite Trigger. What Billy does is he DOESN"T use a SL. He will just put in a counter trade at the opposite trigger to keep his bad trade "in limbo". If this happens he will at this...
Thanks for this detailed explanation, i get it now...fantastic stuff. just a few follow up questions
1...So do you just place a pending order at the high/low or you manually have to watch the charts till the trigger is hit
2....is it the same logic for the 4hr break at 04am that has a 90% win rate....you wait for the 4 hr bar to form at 8am and then you use the high and low as range??
3...which are the best currencies for the 2 types...since the EJ seems to have been dumped

I think i'll try the hedging as well as ive been at this forex game for a while and the logic explained there makes a lot of sense
  • #28,225
  • May 14, 2018 9:21am May 14, 2018 9:21am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} @Inception12 the "limbo" technically is the Hedging. What you do it's to counter-balance the bad trade, if i understood correct... So if one goes bad and the market change direction, you change direction too and instead of taking a SL you can turn your loss in a BE or in a winning trade In the image attached, the long is your loosing trade, so you go short and see you are counter-balancing the bad trade {image}

yes, i use counter so i can actually say i never lose,
You can just as easily use a stop but it seems more trouble.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,226
  • May 14, 2018 9:22am May 14, 2018 9:22am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Thank you very much! So a trade can stay also three days in the limbo, until you don't reach the TP or at least the BE, right?

right
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,227
  • May 14, 2018 9:23am May 14, 2018 9:23am
Quoting MrGreen95
Last question please then i think i'm done with the basics. If the 4:00 am bar is broken, not at 4:15 but at 8:00, the trade is valid? Or we don't take the trade if the breakout doesn't occur in the zone of the 15 minutes? All this, only on aud/usd? Or any pair?
The 04-00 4 hour bar break is not the same as the 08-00 15 minute bar break.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,228
  • May 14, 2018 9:26am May 14, 2018 9:26am
Quoting Inception12
{quote} Thanks for this detailed explanation, i get it now...fantastic stuff. just a few follow up questions 1...So do you just place a pending order at the high/low or you manually have to watch the charts till the trigger is hit 2....is it the same logic for the 4hr break at 04am that has a 90% win rate....you wait for the 4 hr bar to form at 8am and then you use the high and low as range?? 3...which are the best currencies for the 2 types...since the EJ seems to have been dumped I think i'll try the hedging as well as ive been at this forex game...
correct....
With the Daily E/J
04-00 4 hour bar A/U then Cable.
08-00 15 min bar Cable.

we can use others but i trade 1 , so do not look at any others.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,229
  • May 14, 2018 9:44am May 14, 2018 9:44am
Quoting billytt
{quote} The 04-00 4 hour bar break is not the same as the 08-00 15 minute bar break.

Yes i mean, if the breakout of 8 am candle doesn't occur in 1 candle, but 5 candles after.. is it a valid trade?
  • #28,230
  • May 14, 2018 10:44am May 14, 2018 10:44am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Yes i mean, if the breakout of 8 am candle doesn't occur in 1 candle, but 5 candles after.. is it a valid trade?

Hi,,, if it doesn't break for several hours i would leave it, but then you are looking at US open,
ALSO maybe inside bar on bigger time frame.
OR consolidation but then that is Claudia's area.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,231
  • May 14, 2018 10:45am May 14, 2018 10:45am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Yes i mean, if the breakout of 8 am candle doesn't occur in 1 candle, but 5 candles after.. is it a valid trade?
Still a valid trade. Whether anyone would still be hanging around to take it that long after the original set-up is highly debatable. I know I certainly wouldn't be.

If it's ranged for 5 m15 bars without breaking the first, then the market is telling you something and you'd be better off ''doing a Claudia'' and setting orders above and below and letting it do its thing when it gets around to it.
  • #28,232
  • May 14, 2018 10:48am May 14, 2018 10:48am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Sam, I am going to bin the arvo session as it is chronically bad, so I will acknowledge that I have read your question and I am not ignoring you but I will answer it for you later on tonight, if that's ok.
Yes Sure Lem, please take your time.
  • #28,233
  • May 14, 2018 10:51am May 14, 2018 10:51am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Still a valid trade. Whether anyone would still be hanging around to take it that long after the original set-up is highly debatable. I know I certainly wouldn't be. If it's ranged for 5 m15 bars without breaking the first, then the market is telling you something and you'd be better off ''doing a Claudia'' and setting orders above and below and letting it do its thing when it gets around to it.
thats what i said lol,,,, sort of.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,234
  • May 14, 2018 10:55am May 14, 2018 10:55am
Today's report breakout 15m candle (8:00/8:15) target 5 pips

22 TP and probably 6 hedgings.
  • #28,235
  • May 14, 2018 10:58am May 14, 2018 10:58am
GN's building something here...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,236
  • May 14, 2018 10:59am May 14, 2018 10:59am
Quoting billytt
{quote} thats what i said lol,,,, sort of.
Lol - you posted while I was typing! I thought you were in the garden with the little people
  • #28,237
  • May 14, 2018 11:09am May 14, 2018 11:09am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Lol - you posted while I was typing! I thought you were in the garden with the little people
i am am in and out of garden.
gf is now back home too...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28,238
  • Edited 12:11pm May 14, 2018 11:16am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} i am am in and out of garden. gf is now back home too...
Is that a euphemism, lol. "The master of the house visited the garden of his secret sweetheart...she swooned at the sight of his honed torso as he wielded his shovel."
  • #28,239
  • May 14, 2018 12:10pm May 14, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting samuel2133
{quote} Morning all ; I just want to understand the trade management here.... In case, you had a loser, would you close it at the break of the 2h candle low? Question in attached file Thanks Lem {image}
Right, here we go. Are we sitting comfortably? Then I'll begin...

Once upon a time, there was a candle...

The trade today kind of muddies the water a little because of the gap, so for the purposes of this eg, I'll treat it as if there had been no gap, ok?

So.

1: Enter long at the open of the trigger candle. This is a Wick-Zone move back into the body of the 2-hr block.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2: As we are making this a loss move, we will assume we didn't take any percents out of this. As such we go negative...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Now, you ask if I would then go in with a double lot as price breaks the Low. Short answer is (in this instance at least), no.

The distance is too large for me and would have me sitting on an annoyingly chunky floater (oo-err-missus).

What I will do instead is...

3: ...run a counter entry off of the last m15 bar. So, in this case, I will enter a counter short at what was around the marked line here...13007...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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That sets me in limbo.

From there, as it turns out I will begin to unwind by...

4: ...going in on a short as price breaks the low of the 2 hr block now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This now gives me an un-balanced hedge (one long and two short) and so I will have to at some point, assuming we continue short, close the long trade.

I can't tell you when and where exactly I will do that, that's part of my game, how I play it as my own personal style. I will say that I usually wait for a small pullback, usually at a micro S+D Zone (whatever is relevant) and close it out, leaving the shorts to run.

However...I will also, if the mood takes me, leave it open and look to scalp it back completely (''green up''). This is not a recommendation and is a risky strategy if you are prone to panic, lol. You need to continually balance and unbalance the floating loss and you do need a fair-sized bank. Because of the way it moves though, The DAX is especially suited to this type of scalping.

Hope that helps in some way and feel free if there is any more you need cleared up.

I've said this before - it is probably easier to do than to explain .
  • #28,240
  • May 14, 2018 12:29pm May 14, 2018 12:29pm
[quote=lemercenaire;11057986]{quote} Right, here we go. Are we sitting comfortably? Then I'll begin... Once upon a time, there was a candle... The trade today kind of muddies the water a little because of the gap, so for the purposes of this eg, I'll treat it as if there had been no gap, ok? So. 1: Enter long at the open of the trigger candle. This is a Wick-Zone move back into the body of the 2-hr block. {image} 2: As we are making this a loss move, we will assume we didn't take any percents out of this. As such we go negative... {image} Now, you ask if I would then go in with a double lot as price breaks the Low. Short answer is (in this instance at least), no. The distance is too large for me and would have me sitting on an annoyingly chunky floater (oo-err-missus). What I will do instead is... 3: ...run a counter entry off of the last m15 bar. So, in this case, I will enter a counter short at what was around the marked line here...13007... {image} That sets me in limbo. From there, as it turns out I will begin to unwind by... 4: ...going in on a short as price breaks the low of the 2 hr block now. {image} This now gives me an un-balanced hedge (one long and two short) and so I will have to at some point, assuming we continue short, close the long trade. I can't tell you when and where exactly I will do that, that's part of my game, how I play it as my own personal style. I will say that I usually wait for a small pullback, usually at a micro S+D Zone (whatever is relevant) and close it out, leaving the shorts to run. However...I will also, if the mood takes me, leave it open and look to scalp it back completely (''green up''). This is not a recommendation and is a risky strategy if you are prone to panic, lol. You need to continually balance and unbalance the floating loss and you do need a fair-sized bank. Because of the way it moves though, The DAX is especially suited to this type of scalping. Hope that helps in some way and feel free if there is any more you need cleared up. I've said this before - it is probably easier to do than to explain .[/quote

Great example and explanation Lem!
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