99.99999% lose money | Forex Factory

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99.99999% lose money

  • #1
  • First Post: May 13, 2018 9:38am May 13, 2018 9:38am
Seriously, where this repeated stats came from? According to IG "The actual proportion of profitable accounts across IG’s European clients for the calendar year 2017 was 24 percent. This is from IG response to ESMA call. Source attached.
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File Type: pdf IG_Group_response_to_ESMA_call_for_evidence.pdf   1.8 MB | 1,440 downloads
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  • #2
  • May 13, 2018 10:33am May 13, 2018 10:33am
Quoting zghnno
According to IG [...]
I would call that fanciful accounting.. Someone who does know can tell you (video below called 'Anton Kreil Annihilates Retail Brokers and "Trading Educators"'; I think he states the stats from GS somewhere near the end of the video, but everyone should watch the entire video anyway..):
youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8

In short, it is more like 90/10.
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  • #3
  • May 13, 2018 6:01pm May 13, 2018 6:01pm
you know what is the sad part is if you told a kid like a 10yr old. it is a video game and nothing else he would kill it.
  • #4
  • May 13, 2018 6:38pm May 13, 2018 6:38pm
Quoting dogdays713
you know what is the sad part is if you told a kid like a 10yr old. it is a video game and nothing else he would kill it.
Im pretty sure it doesn't work that way...
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #5
  • May 13, 2018 6:50pm May 13, 2018 6:50pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} Im pretty sure it doesn't work that way...
monkeys have beat stockbrokers at picking stocks so why not?
  • #6
  • May 13, 2018 8:01pm May 13, 2018 8:01pm
Quoting dogdays713
{quote} monkeys have beat stockbrokers at picking stocks so why not?
You'd have to understand the context of that experiment. They were attempting to point out the a large the hedge fund industry on average underperforms a randomly selected portfolio.

To link back to your comment, a kid could probably perform better than the average retail trader under the assumption that their performance are random... But it is unlikely that they will be "killing it" l
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #7
  • May 13, 2018 8:08pm May 13, 2018 8:08pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} You'd have to understand the context of that experiment. They were attempting to point out the a large the hedge fund industry on average underperforms a randomly selected portfolio. To link back to your comment, a kid could probably perform better than the average retail trader under the assumption that their performance are random... But it is unlikely that they will be "killing it" l
LOL, what makes you think I did not know the context of that experiment?
but why is it unlikely. have you ever seen a kid play a video game?
  • #8
  • May 13, 2018 8:23pm May 13, 2018 8:23pm
Quoting dogdays713
{quote} LOL, what makes you think I did not know the context of that experiment? but why is it unlikely.
My intention was not to question your understanding of the experiment. Apologies if my tone gave you that perception.

As for the reason why a kid is unlikely to be "killing it". Think about this, random performance being in the upper quartile of trading performance? Heck the whole industry could simply take random trades and they will be thriving!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #9
  • May 13, 2018 8:35pm May 13, 2018 8:35pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} My intention was not to question your understanding of the experiment. Apologies if my tone gave you that perception. As for the reason why a kid is unlikely to be "killing it". Think about this, random performance being in the upper quartile of trading performance? Heck the whole industry could simply take random trades and they will be thriving!
agreed.
  • #10
  • May 13, 2018 10:20pm May 13, 2018 10:20pm
Hey.....don't be too hard on Ola the Ape :-)

Attached Image
  • #11
  • May 13, 2018 10:22pm May 13, 2018 10:22pm
Quoting Copernicus
Hey.....don't be too hard on Ola the Ape :-) {image}
lmao
  • #12
  • May 13, 2018 11:01pm May 13, 2018 11:01pm
the statement of 99,9 something % trader loose money didn't explain in which time frame; in total until the trader resign or daily, each second counted by order received , etc ;
thus if we see that in a second there is 100 buy, and 100 sell, then add spread cost in , within the same price, then yes we see them loosing, almost 100% of it, and that 0,000 something 0001% win is from arbitrary.

just maybe
  • #13
  • May 14, 2018 1:03am May 14, 2018 1:03am
According to the report 24% were winners/profitable over the last year 2017.

And this is a market maker broker and offers spread betting accounts
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  • #14
  • May 14, 2018 1:30am May 14, 2018 1:30am
Quoting zghnno
According to the report 24% were winners/profitable over the last year 2017. And this is a market maker broker and offers spread betting accounts
I apparently have related paper, but on stock daytraders in taiwan.
Apparently their stats shows that less than 1% are consistently profitable over a 12-year period. But in any year, we have about 20% profitable (If i recall correctly).

I will try to dig up the paper when I have the time. It is quite an interesting read!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #15
  • May 14, 2018 2:23am May 14, 2018 2:23am
My own experience is that I don't worry to much about the percentage of who makes money and who doesn't. I just try real hard to not be a looser. I have been at this for over a decade and I find that TRADING WITH THE TREND greatly increased my profitability. There a two tricks. One is to determine the trend direction correctly. Trick number two is to wait until you now the trend direction before putting on your trade. TRADIDNG=WAITING! If you learn this you too can be trading for a long time.
  • #16
  • May 14, 2018 4:13am May 14, 2018 4:13am
Open a Restaurant with little experience, and your chances are similar, this is a business, hard as any other...shape up, or ship out..
  • #17
  • May 14, 2018 4:53am May 14, 2018 4:53am
This is recurring topic, isn't it ? In Forex trading, the problem seems to be that people blow their account one day or another. So it all depends on the time frame: in the short term, you have around 50% / 50% of winners / loosers. A little less winners than loosers actually due to spreads. But the longer the time period, the more the winners % seems to drop ...

Btw the 99.999... number is still dumb. But over a long period of time, it is probable the loosers % rises to 90%+
  • #18
  • May 14, 2018 12:00pm May 14, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting zghnno
Seriously, where this repeated stats came from? According to IG "The actual proportion of profitable accounts across IG’s European clients for the calendar year 2017 was 24 percent. This is from IG response to ESMA call. Source attached. {image}
Well i didnt go through the whole pdf but its nothing new under the sun.
Lossers will be there in any business and as far as i can recall to my knowledge that 90 percent of the business start up fails.

But The main thing to remember here is that the difference between winners[0.001%] and losers [99.99%] is only Knowledge.

Knowledge is power.
No one ever Discovered anything new by colouring inside the lines.
  • #19
  • Jun 9, 2018 7:21pm Jun 9, 2018 7:21pm
There is only one thing work imho ......
Adopt and apply....
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -391
  • #20
  • Edited Jun 10, 2018 9:19am Jun 9, 2018 8:01pm | Edited Jun 10, 2018 9:19am
Quoting dogdays713
you know what is the sad part is if you told a kid like a 10yr old. it is a video game and nothing else he would kill it.
Well put sit. If we threw in some SR advice and advised to work from the higher time frames down, and explained how to read a candle...

Edited.. Meant Well put sir.
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