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  • #721
  • May 11, 2018 8:26pm May 11, 2018 8:26pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I take longer term trades. I will re-enter aud/nzd at a better pull back hoping for 1.12 which could take a while to reach. My next swings will be on eur/USD and gbp/USD.
what is the fundamental behind EU n GU actually??
  • #722
  • Edited May 12, 2018 5:40pm May 11, 2018 9:16pm | Edited May 12, 2018 5:40pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} Why AUDNZD? Whats the narrative behind these currencies?

Aud/nzd - both central banks are in bad position but RBNZ said they could cut or hike which is alarm bells. Aud/nzd will see 1.12.

riclater211 << also holds positions for long so maybe you can connect with him and read through his comments

I
  • #723
  • May 11, 2018 9:20pm May 11, 2018 9:20pm
Quoting terow
{quote} what is the fundamental behind EU n GU actually??

Gbp/USD- policy is still the same and Carney said he expects to hike this year, but I want to see the employment data on Tuesday before I commit to a swing. Cable is also is sitting on support from January and its trading sideways. Brexit is still there of course.

Eur/USD- is tricky because the data has been terrible for eur/Germany but the bulls have comeback of the back of that usd cpi and eur has fallen a fair amount since last month so maybe the bulls feel it's time to buy. Also 2017 this time last year buying was taking place on this pair also.

Draghi will speak next month which will reveal all
  • #724
  • May 12, 2018 12:14am May 12, 2018 12:14am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Aud/nzd - both central banks are in bad position but RBNZ said they could cut or hike which is alarm bells. Aud/nzd will see 1.12. riclater211 << also holds positions for long so maybe you can connect with him and read through his comments Inbox me your email and I will send you a full report of where the central banks are up to.
I see. Why not share it here? Help the community too!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #725
  • May 13, 2018 1:18pm May 13, 2018 1:18pm
I’ve been paying more attention to combining the technicals with the fundamentals and near-term sentiment and it’s actually worked out quite well. I’m was finding that I wasn’t getting as many opportunities simply by using sentiment and forex fundamental analysis alone and the entries weren’t as exact as I’d like.

Inserted Video
  • #726
  • May 13, 2018 11:09pm May 13, 2018 11:09pm
I've always though technicals ARE fundamentals and vice versa. Any significant market action can be seen through both lens. They both represent/reflect market psychology.

A big play I'm thinking about are the rate increases that are expected. The expected rate increases in USD would probably be dampened by the expectation of increased rates globally.

Most countries rates are reflective of Economic stimulation AND crisis controls. Right now these 'crisis controls' are being wound down. (For good reason.) Although this could cause flash panics due to decreases in money supply, it does have an effect on the wealth seeking good interest. Thus shown in market valuations.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #727
  • May 13, 2018 11:10pm May 13, 2018 11:10pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} I see. Why not share it here? Help the community too!
That pair is so linked with each other it becomes extremely difficult to trade. Best look at AUD or NZD with another economic currency. Gold or JPY or something. You want RED/BLUE not RED/RED.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #728
  • May 14, 2018 1:26am May 14, 2018 1:26am
Quoting CannonScout
I've always though technicals ARE fundamentals and vice versa. Any significant market action can be seen through both lens. They both represent/reflect market psychology. A big play I'm thinking about are the rate increases that are expected. The expected rate increases in USD would probably be dampened by the expectation of increased rates globally. Most countries rates are reflective of Economic stimulation AND crisis controls. Right now these 'crisis controls' are being wound down. (For good reason.) Although this could cause flash panics due...
I respectfully disagree on the ""technicals are fundamentals" point.
Then again, we are all entitled to our opinions.

Yes i can agree with you that globally, we are more or less heading down the tightening path. Albeit with some countries lagging behind slightly.
I would however debate your point on "flash panics due to decrease in money supply", thats what central banks are for - to facilitate a smooth transition.
Although I would also to agree to a certain extent that an eventual consequence is the increased value of money relative to non-monetary items. The process could take a very long time due to the creation of credit replacing the "lost money"... If you understood what I meant...
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #729
  • May 14, 2018 1:27am May 14, 2018 1:27am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} That pair is so linked with each other it becomes extremely difficult to trade. Best look at AUD or NZD with another economic currency. Gold or JPY or something. You want RED/BLUE not RED/RED.
Sorry I do not understand what you meant by this.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #730
  • May 14, 2018 1:37am May 14, 2018 1:37am
Quoting synicz
{quote} I respectfully disagree on the ""technicals are fundamentals" point. Then again, we are all entitled to our opinions. Yes i can agree with you that globally, we are more or less heading down the tightening path. Albeit with some countries lagging behind slightly. I would however debate your point on "flash panics due to decrease in money supply", thats what central banks are for - to facilitate a smooth transition. Although I would also to agree to a certain extent that an eventual consequence is the increased value of money relative to...
Right. By increased value of money relative to non-monetary items do you mean deflation? And yes it will take time. But haste makes waste after all.

By the RED/RED RED/Blue analogy I was talking about AUD/NZD. Both these economic zones are related quite inherently. While they are different, and by all means they are tradable, their economic reactions would be very similar. By RED/RED, this represents a currency pair which is ALMOST identical. By RED/BLUE, this represents a diverse currency pair with currency that are affected by widely different circumstances. Just making it more easier to trade in my opinion.

Upon further thought it is quite silly. Will have to adapt this view.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #731
  • May 14, 2018 1:44am May 14, 2018 1:44am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} Right. By increased value of money relative to non-monetary items do you mean deflation? And yes it will take time. But haste makes waste after all. By the RED/RED RED/Blue analogy I was talking about AUD/NZD. Both these economic zones are related quite inherently. While they are different, and by all means they are tradable, their economic reactions would be very similar. By RED/RED, this represents a currency pair which is ALMOST identical. By RED/BLUE, this represents a diverse currency pair with currency that are affected by widely different...
Yesyes! Deflation! Forgot to add that my hypothesis is that the country quickest to tighten could see their currency appreciate against those of countries slower to tighten. And it currently seems that US is most ahead of the curve! (Explaining my bullish view on the USD)

Okay I understand your RED BLUE concept now!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #732
  • May 14, 2018 1:54am May 14, 2018 1:54am
Quoting synicz
{quote} Yesyes! Deflation! Forgot to add that my hypothesis is that the country quickest to tighten could see their currency appreciate against those of countries slower to tighten. And it currently seems that US is most ahead of the curve! (Explaining my bullish view on the USD) Okay I understand your RED BLUE concept now!
Nice. Yeah I think USD is like the canary in coal mine. They will tighten first and be the 'experiment' country, if/when it works out, other nations will have more confidence to do the same. But I know central banks are globally coordinated, they will be aware of the greater policy outlook and will work to adjust monetary policy for each individual nation.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #733
  • May 14, 2018 1:57am May 14, 2018 1:57am
Quoting synicz
{quote} Yesyes! Deflation! Forgot to add that my hypothesis is that the country quickest to tighten could see their currency appreciate against those of countries slower to tighten. And it currently seems that US is most ahead of the curve! (Explaining my bullish view on the USD) Okay I understand your RED BLUE concept now!
I wouldn't jump to the Bullish USD conclusion. We must remember that interest rates are expected to increase GLOBALLY, not just in America. This would dampen any positive affect on the USD. Interest seekers could simply say, 'well we might as well wait and by GBP instead' for example.

This Syria business is not over, any war fears would demolish USD valuation pretty darn quick.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #734
  • May 14, 2018 3:27am May 14, 2018 3:27am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I wouldn't jump to the Bullish USD conclusion.. This Syria business is not over, any war fears would demolish USD valuation pretty darn quick.
I think this makes sense.
For a while now, the USD trade has been driven mostly by the political climate in the US surrounding Trump and foreign policy.
Now Trump is showing signs that he can actually be an achiever, but it is not yet 'uhuru' for the USD.
I don't think the market (much less the world) has fully adapted to this new dynamic (Trump, foreign policy). Plus the president of the US -for the next 2 years at least- is a very 'volatile' person.

PS: I see this morning many banks are recommending short USD positions.
  • #735
  • May 14, 2018 3:35am May 14, 2018 3:35am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I think this makes sense. For a while now, the USD trade has been driven mostly by the political climate in the US surrounding Trump and foreign policy. Now Trump is showing signs that he can actually be an achiever, but it is not yet 'uhuru' for the USD. I don't think the market (much less the world) has fully adapted to this new dynamic (Trump, foreign policy). Plus the president of the US -for the next 2 years at least- is a very 'volatile' person. PS: I see this morning many banks are recommending short USD positions.
Good on the banks, I would do the same. The thing is, even if Trump gets the economy roaring to the highest heights, No nation wants a really strong currency. Iim sure there would be manoeuvres to lower to USD or at least keep it stable.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #736
  • May 14, 2018 4:12am May 14, 2018 4:12am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I wouldn't jump to the Bullish USD conclusion. We must remember that interest rates are expected to increase GLOBALLY, not just in America. This would dampen any positive affect on the USD. Interest seekers could simply say, 'well we might as well wait and by GBP instead' for example. This Syria business is not over, any war fears would demolish USD valuation pretty darn quick.
I would actually argue that "war fears" and/or geopolitical risks are supportive of the USD due to it's status as a reserve currency.
Understood that globally interest rates are expected to rise. My point would be that the fed are quickest to hike rates. And therefore in theory would make USD denominated assets more attractive to hold. Once other countries start to catch up would be roughly the point whereby their respective currencies could catch up against the USD.

Im not sure what you meant with the GBP phrase. But IMO GBP has nearly every reason to be one of the weakest G10 currency.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #737
  • May 14, 2018 5:39am May 14, 2018 5:39am
Quoting synicz
{quote} I would actually argue that "war fears" and/or geopolitical risks are supportive of the USD due to it's status as a reserve currency. Understood that globally interest rates are expected to rise. My point would be that the fed are quickest to hike rates. And therefore in theory would make USD denominated assets more attractive to hold. Once other countries start to catch up would be roughly the point whereby their respective currencies could catch up against the USD. Im not sure what you meant with the GBP phrase. But IMO GBP has nearly...
True. It's attractiveness depends on the investor. Of course USD will rise, but it won't be as much as people expect. That's why I used the term 'dampened.'

Yeah GBP is cancer currently. British land is the only thing I can think of that has value in the UK.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #738
  • Jun 2, 2018 11:44am Jun 2, 2018 11:44am
As promised, in this video I go over how I combined the technicals with the fundamentals in a recent trade:

Inserted Video
  • #739
  • Jun 3, 2018 4:05am Jun 3, 2018 4:05am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} I think this makes sense. For a while now, the USD trade has been driven mostly by the political climate in the US surrounding Trump and foreign policy. Now Trump is showing signs that he can actually be an achiever, but it is not yet 'uhuru' for the USD. I don't think the market (much less the world) has fully adapted to this new dynamic (Trump, foreign policy). Plus the president of the US -for the next 2 years at least- is a very 'volatile' person. PS: I see this morning many banks are recommending short USD positions.

Many robber banks suggesting short USD screams stay bullish USD. Sigh...
  • #740
  • Jun 12, 2018 8:17am Jun 12, 2018 8:17am
Quoting jchiogna1
As promised, in this video I go over how I combined the technicals with the fundamentals in a recent trade: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=m2bun8yKTxc
Great trade! It reminds me of something Victor Sperandeo said in his first book. He said, "Gambling is taking a risk when the odds are not in your favor. Speculation is taking a risk when odds are in your favor."

You waited for a great setup. You took advantage of strong sentiment, your knowledge of where money flows when risk aversion spikes, and combined it with a techical trigger used by a lot of institutional traders.

These high probability type of trades don't appear in every session, but they appear enough to have a successful trading career.

Lately, I have been taking more correlated trades like this. When the Italian election caused sentiment to shift I traded EUR against USD, JPY, and CHF.

The key is to not take all of the trades at the same time. I never am in more than two trades where my money is a risk. Once my open trades are at BE I will entertain the idea of entering another trade if the sentiment is still strong.

Because I am taking swing trades using the daily charts, this works for me.

Looking forward to seeing your next video.
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