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  • #701
  • May 13, 2018 11:55am May 13, 2018 11:55am
IMO is best to keep shorting GBP because it seems Q2 rebound is unlikely happening. And if it is true, it could be very good pips. BOE seems try to make breathing room for GBP before another brexit negotiation chaos (because EU keep pushing the UK hard on this) by stay "neutrally positive" for another rate hike by the end of this year, plus blamming the weather.. haha..
Born to fuck
  • #702
  • May 13, 2018 12:10pm May 13, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting medalist
IMO is best to keep shorting GBP because it seems Q2 rebound is unlikely happening. And if it is true, it could be very good pips. BOE seems try to make breathing room for GBP before another brexit negotiation chaos (because EU keep pushing the UK hard on this) by stay "neutrally positive" for another rate hike by the end of this year, plus blamming the weather.. haha..

Right now traders are not focused on brexit because it is very far away hence why brexit news doesn't move gbp right now (well not for more than 50 pips).

I wouldn't short gbp until we see employment numbers on Tuesday. Cable got sold off due to bad data and the only way it will rise again is based on good data hence why it's trading on a sideways Trend currently because traders are waiting for Tuesday. The monthly low is a support level for January 18 which is key.
  • #703
  • May 13, 2018 12:24pm May 13, 2018 12:24pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Right now traders are not focused on brexit because it is very far away hence why brexit news doesn't move gbp right now (well not for more than 50 pips). I wouldn't short gbp until we see employment numbers on Tuesday. Cable got sold off due to bad data and the only way it will rise again is based on good data hence why it's trading on a sideways Trend currently because traders are waiting for Tuesday. The monthly low is a support level for January 18 which is key.
Who said trader focus on brexit and it will move GBP ? I said BoE try to make breathing room before another brexit chaos, and it should be this year, but economic data wouldnt allow them to do that on Q1, so they still give hope for another rate hike. And of course Q2 numbers like employment and other is also significant for the direction of GBP. If it is a rebound, its defenetly make hawkish BoE.
Born to fuck
  • #704
  • May 13, 2018 12:32pm May 13, 2018 12:32pm
Quoting medalist
{quote} Who said trader focus on brexit and it will move GBP ? I said BoE try to make breathing room before another brexit chaos, and it should be this year, but economic data wouldnt allow them to do that on Q1, so they still give hope for another rate hike. And of course Q2 numbers like employment and other is also significant for the direction of GBP. If it is a rebound, its defenetly make hawkish BoE.

Okay I agree on this.

I do expect employment and GDP to bounce back as I feel the weather played a big part. I'm not so sure on whether CPi will though as that's more for expert analysts to know.

Right now I think shorting cable isn't the best bet.

Eur/USD bulls seem to be back and that's likely to be one of my next swing trades
  • #705
  • May 13, 2018 12:44pm May 13, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting medalist
{quote} Who said trader focus on brexit and it will move GBP ? I said BoE try to make breathing room before another brexit chaos, and it should be this year, but economic data wouldnt allow them to do that on Q1, so they still give hope for another rate hike. And of course Q2 numbers like employment and other is also significant for the direction of GBP. If it is a rebound, its defenetly make hawkish BoE.

Okay I agree on this.

I do expect employment and GDP to bounce back as I feel the weather played a big part. I'm not so sure on whether CPi will though as that's more for expert analysts to know.

Right now I think shorting cable isn't the best bet.

Eur/USD bulls seem to be back and that's likely to be one of my next swing trades
  • #706
  • May 13, 2018 4:41pm May 13, 2018 4:41pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Okay I agree on this. I do expect employment and GDP to bounce back as I feel the weather played a big part. I'm not so sure on whether CPi will though as that's more for expert analysts to know. Right now I think shorting cable isn't the best bet. Eur/USD bulls seem to be back and that's likely to be one of my next swing trades
I take a look on your UK winter weather report, it was only a month for becoming serious and becoming very harsh in several areas only. But since u are there, Im sure u know better abt this. The question is, was that could be very significant to affect the whole economy? I dont think so IMO.
Born to fuck
  • #707
  • Edited 10:56pm May 14, 2018 12:55am | Edited 10:56pm
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT)

BIAS UK

SELL

EUR: Poor data momentum from two weeks back and non-hawkish ECB
GBP: Dovish Carney momentum + Hard Brexit

BUY

JPY: A Potential rise in geopolitical tensions (NAFTA, US-CHINA TRADE, IRAN)
AUD: Postive outlook on data this week, also a more significant better pair than the NZD so this would further improve its money flows

MY PARIS, SHORT: GJ and EA


TRADE 1

GJ - SHORT - Went in a too early, usually, I wait for a confirmation that the trend is going to reverse but I decided to take the trade as it was at a good resistance

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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UPDATE: Closed out for a -22 pips loss, my analysis was wrong as the markets are currently not as risk-averse as I thought, plus with a background of poor expected data coming in this week there is no reason to be going long the Yen

My bias for the GBP still stands and I will pair this with the AUD for a short

TRADE 1.1

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-60 pips, this trade was entered in at a price where I should have waited to see if the markets were going to offer me something better
TRADE 2

EA - SHORT - There was a reversal at the resistance which did not hold, however, my bias still stands

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Came out of this trade as the fundamentals had changed, -32 pips

BIAS US

SELL

GBP: Same as before

The EUR has been removed due to hawkish remarks made by the ECB today which has driven price on with the bulls;

SUMMARY

Reflecting on these trades my bias on the JPY was completely wrong, as I was not able to gauge the risk sentiment in the markets adequately, I will be building a simple model to help me do so which I will post here, but until then I will be avoiding trading a bias in safe-haven flows unless it is extremely obvious

Also, my entries on the 5 min chart will require a break of a trendline whilst the 15 M entries can be based upon candlestick price action alone

-114 pips
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #708
  • Edited 1:52am May 14, 2018 1:36am | Edited 1:52am
Morning,

Did not really want to take a position today, but NZD right now is in a terrible position and will be going to the downside on all pairs.

NZD/USD short. Confident it will hold its ground as demand for NZD is pretty much 0.

Also have a swing from Friday GBP/NZD (Tiny position) which is open and the stop is set at break even as it is currently 60 pips in profit
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  • #709
  • Edited 2:56am May 14, 2018 1:57am | Edited 2:56am
Weekly bank trades:

Barclays trade recommendation - long Cable at 1.3548, target 1.3725 and stop 1.3450

MS recommends sell Usd/Jpy at 109.70, target 103.00 and stop at 110.30

Goldman Sachs trade recommendation: short Usd/Zar for 11.5000 (6 month target), stop around 13.3000 and market ref 12.2000

Citi trade recommendation - buy Eur/Usd at 1.1970, target 1.2225 and 1.1815 stop
  • #710
  • May 14, 2018 2:16am May 14, 2018 2:16am
Quoting Samson85
Morning, Did not really want to take a position today, but NZD right now is in a terrible position and will be going to the downside on all pairs. NZD/USD short. Confident it will hold its ground as demand for NZD is pretty much 0. Also have a swing from Friday GBP/NZD (Tiny position) which is open and the stop is set at break even as it is currently 60 pips in profit {image} {image}
Agree with Nzd but I will chose eur/nzd...I see Euro stronger than Usd
  • #711
  • May 14, 2018 2:19am May 14, 2018 2:19am
Quoting Samson85
Weekly bank trades: Barclays trade recommendation - long Cable at 1.3548, target 1.3725 and stop 1.3450
Have aome news about FOMC Member Mester Speaks right now are speaking ...
  • #712
  • May 14, 2018 2:40am May 14, 2018 2:40am
Quoting ales.m
{quote} Agree with Nzd but I will chose eur/nzd...I see Euro stronger than Usd

I agree but I chose this one also as it cant really go against you too quickly I have a tiny GBP/NZD trade open as well

NZD & AUD pairs can move 100s pips quickly if the trade goes wrong and can break stops if your broker does not do hard stops
  • #713
  • May 14, 2018 3:53am May 14, 2018 3:53am
Quoting Samson85
Weekly bank trades: Barclays trade recommendation - long Cable at 1.3548, target 1.3725 and stop 1.3450 MS recommends sell Usd/Jpy at 109.70, target 103.00 and stop at 110.30 Goldman Sachs trade recommendation: short Usd/Zar for 11.5000 (6 month target), stop around 13.3000 and market ref 12.2000 Citi trade recommendation - buy Eur/Usd at 1.1970, target 1.2225 and 1.1815 stop
Why are the banks recommending short USD?
Do you suspect there is any fundamental reason(s) for this? Or they looking to play the correction of the bullish run.

I don't think last week's below-estimates CPI is strong enough reason on it's own.
  • #714
  • May 14, 2018 3:59am May 14, 2018 3:59am
Quoting 4rXal-ghul
{quote} Why are the banks recommending short USD? Do you suspect there is any fundamental reason(s) for this? Or they looking to play the correction of the bullish run. I don't think last week's below-estimates CPI is strong enough reason on it's own.

Remember currencies can both be strong at the same time but it just depends which one will have more demand.

I knew GBP & EUR would have a bid. GBP because policy has not changed and Carney said the UK will hike this year, but traders are also expecting good employment data for the UK tomorrow which will drive both the GBP and EUR up.

CPI could be the issue as it means USD will only likely get two hikes this year and force Powell to be dovish in the next FOMC meeting.

I am not ruling out the dollar but if employment is good tomorrow then I expect pound to be bullish vs dollar until we get the CPI data for UK.
  • #715
  • May 14, 2018 6:29am May 14, 2018 6:29am
Quoting Samson85
Morning, Did not really want to take a position today, but NZD right now is in a terrible position and will be going to the downside on all pairs. NZD/USD short. Confident it will hold its ground as demand for NZD is pretty much 0. Also have a swing from Friday GBP/NZD (Tiny position) which is open and the stop is set at break even as it is currently 60 pips in profit {image} {image}

Close gbp/NZD for 130 pips

Will let nzd/USD run on
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #716
  • May 14, 2018 6:46am May 14, 2018 6:46am
Took a long on EUR/SEK as it currently sits on a support level via the 1 day chart. Geneally sek is seen as a weak currency with risabank wanting it weak but likely hiking this year. This trade will be effected by the gbp results for Norway as they sometimes move in line with one another
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  • #717
  • May 14, 2018 10:31am May 14, 2018 10:31am
Quoting Samson85
Morning, Did not really want to take a position today, but NZD right now is in a terrible position and will be going to the downside on all pairs. NZD/USD short. Confident it will hold its ground as demand for NZD is pretty much 0. Also have a swing from Friday GBP/NZD (Tiny position) which is open and the stop is set at break even as it is currently 60 pips in profit {image} {image}

30 pips caught so far on nzd/USD. Although I knew the dollar would be weak today I knew the NZD would be even weaker and that dollar would drag it down. Will be swinging this trade

All trades today in profit
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  • #718
  • May 14, 2018 1:07pm May 14, 2018 1:07pm
Hi Samson85

I found this purely by accident, i did Jarred's course at the end of last year, i must say i never had much success with day trading using the fundamentals, somehow something never clicked for me even though i was using Ransquark and the eikon terminal. Are you using those news feeds or do you have any other sources that you use?
  • #719
  • May 14, 2018 3:00pm May 14, 2018 3:00pm
Quoting suttos
Ric - You need a new broker! 5.7 pip spread in USD/CHF is ridiculous.
Actually that screenshot was taken after the market closed on Friday. That spread is the weekend rate. My average spread on USDCHF is >1.0. But thanks for looking out.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #720
  • May 14, 2018 3:15pm May 14, 2018 3:15pm
Quoting Brettrogerss
Hi Samson85 I found this purely by accident, i did Jarred's course at the end of last year, i must say i never had much success with day trading using the fundamentals, somehow something never clicked for me even though i was using Ransquark and the eikon terminal. Are you using those news feeds or do you have any other sources that you use?

Hi

Yes I have done Jarratt's course and I have to say the feeling was the same as yours.

I am using Ransquawk still as it helps provide me with analysis and fundamentals all in one place. Are you still a member? And are you trading full time?

The markets are currently the best time to be using fundamentals as there as so many plays going on
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