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  • #681
  • Edited 1:50am May 11, 2018 12:48am | Edited 1:50am
I will start with this thread buy saying I dislike carney and much prefer draghi as there is no side stepping!!

I am expecting cable to fully tank as I traders have shrugged of carneys attempt to resurrect pound.

Today I have gone short cable.

I contemplated shorting eur/usd but I feel the bulls are still lurking and its not far of 1.18.

Ideally I may hold this cable short until the employment data which we have next week.

Update: I also went long USD/MXN with profit target being the daily pivot
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  • #682
  • May 11, 2018 1:40am May 11, 2018 1:40am
Samson 85 I still believe the usd/chf will go up gradually.
I agree. Usdchf is a buy
  • #683
  • May 11, 2018 1:46am May 11, 2018 1:46am
Quoting Samson85
I will start with this thread buy saying I dislike carney and much prefer draghi as there is no side stepping!! I am expecting cable to fully tank as I traders have shrugged of carneys attempt to resurrect pound. Today I have gone short cable. I contemplated shorting eur/usd but I feel the bulls are still lurking and its not far of 1.18. Ideally I may hold this cable short until the employment data which we have next week. {image}
Me too like Draghi, but you have to consider Carney operates in an extremely difficult context continuosly walking on egg shells, he has not easy task at all!
  • #684
  • Edited 3:26am May 11, 2018 1:52am | Edited 3:26am
New trade from Morgan stanley:

MS recommends long Usd/Cad via a trailing bid/order to buy at 1.2650 (vs circa 1.2755 now), targeting 1.3100 and stop at 1.2510

MS recommends selling Aud/Nzd above current market (1.0820) at 1.1200, target 1.0800 and 1.1340 stop
  • #685
  • May 11, 2018 2:03am May 11, 2018 2:03am
I disagree, someone is manipulating the system , a bad data is released but the currency strengthens. A worse then expected data. If you think i am lying look at nfp results (04 may 2018). I wonder how many pips you made on that day .
"Our favorite holding period is forever." Warren Buffett
  • #686
  • May 11, 2018 2:16am May 11, 2018 2:16am
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT)

BIAS UK

SELL

GBP: Dovish Carney
NZD: Dovish RBNZ

BUY

CAD: Oil

PAIRS TO SHORT: GBPCAD & NZDCAD

TRADE 1

Shorted the NZDCAD, I missed out on the GBPCAD because I was not able to get my analysis done by 6 GMT which is when volatility significantly increases, so I missed out on a cheap price, we all like a good deal so I feel trading should be no different especially because I tend to take profits early.

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At the time of writing this, the pairs have significantly reversed but risk wise I am committed to the NC

Quoting Samson85
New trade from Morgan stanley: MS recommends long Usd/Cad via a trailing bid/order to buy at 1.2650 (vs circa 1.2755 now), targeting 1.3100 and stop at 1.2510
I hope this does not affect my pairs too much!
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #687
  • May 11, 2018 2:35am May 11, 2018 2:35am
Quoting Samson85
I will start with this thread buy saying I dislike carney and much prefer draghi as there is no side stepping!! I am expecting cable to fully tank as I traders have shrugged of carneys attempt to resurrect pound. Today I have gone short cable. I contemplated shorting eur/usd but I feel the bulls are still lurking and its not far of 1.18. Ideally I may hold this cable short until the employment data which we have next week. Update: I also went long USD/MXN with profit target being the daily pivot {image} {image}

Profit target pretty much hit!!!
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  • #688
  • May 11, 2018 3:38am May 11, 2018 3:38am
Quoting Samson85
I will start with this thread buy saying I dislike carney and much prefer draghi as there is no side stepping!! I am expecting cable to fully tank as I traders have shrugged of carneys attempt to resurrect pound. Today I have gone short cable. I contemplated shorting eur/usd but I feel the bulls are still lurking and its not far of 1.18. Ideally I may hold this cable short until the employment data which we have next week. Update: I also went long USD/MXN with profit target being the daily pivot {image} {image}

Cable closed due to a central bank speaker. Not risking any surprises.
  • #689
  • May 11, 2018 5:30am May 11, 2018 5:30am
Quoting goodways100
Samson 85 I still believe the usd/chf will go up gradually. I agree. Usdchf is a buy
Not sure right now as I think the tides may turn for dollar. That CPI result may have decreased the chance of an extra hike. One next month and one year end.

USD/CHF has tried to mirror ueur/chf. The only way I see it going up is if there is minimal demand on chf.
  • #690
  • May 11, 2018 6:41am May 11, 2018 6:41am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Not sure right now as I think the tides may turn for dollar. That CPI result may have decreased the chance of an extra hike. One next month and one year end. USD/CHF has tried to mirror ueur/chf. The only way I see it going up is if there is minimal demand on chf.
Hi new here, following this thread this week as it was nice to see some emphasis on the fundamental drivers for a change.

I feel dollar was being bought this week on the expectation of a better CPI print than we got in the end. I personally don't think it was a terrible print with both headline YoY figures above the Fed's target, but I agree I don't see it changing the Fed's path of 2 more hikes this year. Hence why I think we are seeing a bit of a dollar selloff today in my opinion anyway.

Plus a great thread here very helpful
  • #691
  • May 11, 2018 4:59pm May 11, 2018 4:59pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I still believe the usd/chf will go up gradually but it seems that eur/USD may have done a reversal. It rallied up on the cpi results then lost it's gains then regained them again. Will be interesting to see how long the momentum can last as it has been taking a hit.
Hey Samson,

Looks like I got out at the right time on my USDCHF trade. At the close of US session today, USDCHF had fell over 50 pips. It never reached yesterdays highs and is turning to down the side. I am not sure it will reach any new highs tech wise in the near term. It is poised to fall. Next weeks US Core Retail Sales, which is expected to be better & should be somewhat priced in already, may be a deciding factor if there is a suprise and if the Bears do not push price down on Monday before the announcement on Tuesday. There is no significant announcements on the CHF next week, other than the SNBs Thomas Jordan speech on Wednesday morning which does not have a real short term effect usually. You can watch it on the SNB . CH website. Just click web TV UTC+02:00

Have a good weekend,

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #692
  • May 11, 2018 5:43pm May 11, 2018 5:43pm
Ric - You need a new broker! 5.7 pip spread in USD/CHF is ridiculous.
  • #693
  • May 11, 2018 8:01pm May 11, 2018 8:01pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Samson, Looks like I got out at the right time on my USDCHF trade. At the close of US session today, USDCHF had fell over 50 pips. It never reached yesterdays highs and is turning to down the side. I am not sure it will reach any new highs tech wise in the near term. It is poised to fall. Next weeks US Core Retail Sales, which is expected to be better & should be somewhat priced in already, may be a deciding factor if there is a suprise and if the Bears do not push price down on Monday before the announcement on Tuesday. There is no...
Hey RIC,

I agree with you as the last couple of days chf has been showing some bid across the board.

Yesterday I scalped on eur/USD, gbp/USD and aud/nzd. Originally i was going to swing trade these moves and the reasons were:

Gbp/USD- policy is still the same and Carney said he expects to hike this year, but I want to see the employment data on Tuesday before I commit to a swing. Cable is also is sitting on support from January and its trading sideways.

Eur/USD- is tricky because the data has been terrible for eur/Germany but the bulls have comeback of the back of that usd cpi and eur has fallen a fair amount since last month so maybe the bulls feel it's time to buy. Also 2017 this time last year buying was taking place on this pair also.

Aud/nzd - both central banks are in bad position but RBNZ said they could cut or hike which is alarm bells. Aud/nzd will see 1.12.

What I am waiting for is a strong market fundamental driver to do a couple swings hence pulling out the above positions (minus aud/nzd which has drive but I want a better entry).

Hope This makes sense.
  • #694
  • Edited 6:22am May 12, 2018 6:06am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting forexin101
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT) BIAS UK SELL GBP: Dovish Carney NZD: Dovish RBNZ BUY CAD: Oil PAIRS TO SHORT: GBPCAD & NZDCAD TRADE 1 Shorted the NZDCAD, I missed out on the GBPCAD because I was not able to get my analysis done by 6 GMT which is when volatility significantly increases, so I missed out on a cheap price, we all like a good deal so I feel trading should be no different especially because I tend to take profits early. {image} At the time...
CONTINUED UPDATE

BIAS FOR THE US SESSION

Removed my bias to sell the GBP for this session has there continues to be more uncertainty surrounding the BoE stance on the direction of the economy which moving the sentiment in an opposite direction towards my bias

I kept my bias to short the NZDCAD

UPDATE 1 - NZDCAD

The bias surrounding this trade became invalid when the CAD data came out worse than expected leading me to come out with a -16 pip loss

TRADE 2 (CAD NEWS)

Took a reactionary trade on the GBPCAD long for a +30 pip profit

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*Took a rookie 2 pip loss by accidentally trading a wrong pair!

FRIDAY PIPS: +14 pips

SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK

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Accumulated +213 pips in total
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #695
  • Edited 3:22pm May 12, 2018 9:03am | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting forexin101
{quote} CONTINUED UPDATE BIAS FOR THE US SESSION Removed my bias to sell the GBP for this session has there continues to be more uncertainty surrounding the BoE stance on the direction of the economy which moving the sentiment in an opposite direction towards my bias I kept my bias to short the NZDCAD UPDATE 1 - NZDCAD The bias surrounding this trade became invalid when the CAD data came out worse than expected leading me to come out with a -16 pip loss TRADE 2 (CAD NEWS) Took a reactionary trade on the GBPCAD long for a +30 pip profit {image} *Took...
I'm still in most of my Long CAD positions. In regards to GBPCAD and NZDCAD in particular I see more downside potential than anything.
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  • #696
  • May 12, 2018 3:36pm May 12, 2018 3:36pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} In regards to GBPCAD and NZDCAD in particular I see more downside potential than anything.{image}
I certainly agree those pairs have so much downside to them at the moment, I will be more than likely re-entering those pairs come Monday, and that is a nice accumulation of pips you have there!
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #697
  • May 12, 2018 9:02pm May 12, 2018 9:02pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} I'm still in most of my Long CAD positions. In regards to GBPCAD and NZDCAD in particular I see more downside potential than anything.{image}
I think this will all depend on whether the continued strong drive in oil continues which has lifted cad.

Take into account that that the jobs data for cad missed on Thursday and the boc are very data dependant.

Also I posted on this thread on Friday that one of the banks have gone long usd/cad (I take it that they don't trust trump in relation to nafta)

The nafta deadline is for the 17th may.

I expect gbp/cad to go for a bit of a run the next few days as pound has some legs in it across all all pairs as seen on Friday and cad employment miss doesn't help.

Pound also has employment data released on Tuesday which will shape the direction of pound.

Nzd/cad looks like it could retrace and fall further via a fibanachi level as RBNZ are in a predicament right now as they could cut rates

There is also an opec monthly report tomorow as well which could effect wti which will effect cad.
  • #698
  • Edited 9:21pm May 12, 2018 9:07pm | Edited 9:21pm
Key points this week:

Sunday: Deadline to form Italian government

Monday: OPEC Monthly Report

Tuesday: RBA Minutes, UK Labour Market Data, German ZEW, EZ GDP (2nd reading), US Retail Sales, US TIC Flows, NOK GDP, China industrial production - retail sales also

Wednesday: Japan GDP (Prelim), EUR CPI (Final), US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, AUD Wage Price Index q/q,
EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks, CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks, Oil Inventories

Thursday: Australia Labour Market Data, US Philly Fed, NZD Annual Budget Release

Friday: Japan CPI, Canada CPI


There are also a few central bank speakers that week and I would advise you put a note in your phone for this on high impact. Also look on other websites to see if there are speakers so you don't endure what I did via Carney surprise BBC interview!!!!!
  • #699
  • May 12, 2018 11:26pm May 12, 2018 11:26pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I think this will all depend on whether the continued strong drive in oil continues which has lifted cad. Take into account that that the jobs data for cad missed on Thursday and the boc are very data dependant. Also I posted on this thread on Friday that one of the banks have gone long usd/cad (I take it that they don't trust trump in relation to nafta) The nafta deadline is for the 17th may. I expect gbp/cad to go for a bit of a run the next few days as pound has some legs in it across all all pairs as seen on Friday and cad employment...

I believe the bank you're referencing is Morgan Stanley. My TP for USDCAD is just a bit below their suggested buy limit so I'll be holding until we reach that point and then re-evaluate.

Here is RBC's take on Friday's employment release : "
Canadian employment was little changed in April, slipping 1k lower after rising 32k in March. Details were generally solid. Full-time employment jumped another 29k higher after a 68k surge in March with offset from a second straight drop in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate held at 5.8% for a third straight month — and fourth of the last five. Prior to November, the unemployment rate had only been that low in one month in more than 4 decades. The participation rate ticked lower in April but seemingly largely due to the aging population. The participation rate for 25-54 year-olds rose to 86.9% in April.

Employment/unemployment data has been strong for a while. A missing ingredient to stronger labour markets last year — and arguably the last remaining argument that labour markets aren’t already operating close to long-run capacity limits — was stronger wage growth. On that front, the data has been notably better to-date in 2018 and showed further improvement in April. Year-over-year wage growth ticked up to 3.6% in April, its fastest pace since October 2012 and a sharp reversal from a year ago when wages were rising just 0.7%. Not all of that increase is tied to a big minimum wage hike in Ontario in January, either. By our calculation, wage growth ex-Ontario rose to 3.1% in April from an average 2.9% in Q1. Yes, economic growth has slowed, but that’s not such a bad thing with evidence mounting that the economy is already pretty close to long-run capacity limits. The data still argues that the Bank of Canada will ultimately need to hike rates further from what are still highly stimulative levels although competitive headwinds, trade uncertainty, and concerns about highly leveraged households also still argue that the pace is likely to be very gradual."

As far as Oil is concerned, position analysis of the futures' market is at such a place where I'd be very uncomfortable going long and staying with the position, but at the same time current global affairs are enabling price to increase on what I suspect is a short to medium term price increase.
  • #700
  • May 12, 2018 11:36pm May 12, 2018 11:36pm
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} I believe the bank you're referencing is Morgan Stanley. My TP for USDCAD is just a bit below their suggested buy limit so I'll be holding until we reach that point and then re-evaluate. Here is RBC's take on Friday's employment release : " Canadian employment was little changed in April, slipping 1k lower after rising 32k in March. Details were generally solid. Full-time employment jumped another 29k higher after a 68k surge in March with offset from a second straight drop in part-time jobs. The unemployment rate held at 5.8% for a third...

I'm not sure shorting cad vs gbp is a wise trade until we get the employment data for uk. Right now cable is trading sideways and sitting on support from January.

NZD should reclaim it's weakness so nzd/cad is not so bad on a swing trade. Although aud/nzd is more attractive as it will go to 1.12 but it moves slow apparently.

The key thing is that poloz will only hike based on data.

I was also expecting more of a powerful run up from oil but I think traders are being cautious.

Nzd is the best currency to bet against right now because the central bank have clarified their stance.

Aud isn't even in the best position but the pressure buying it's putting on the NZD is creating a demand across all aud pairs.
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