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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #661
  • Edited 11:09pm May 9, 2018 12:55am | Edited 11:09pm
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT)

BIAS UK

SELL

GBP, EUR: Recent EUR strength and a bout of poor data make this a target

BUY

CAD: Iran deal cutting the supply of Oil

PAIRS TO SHORT: EURCAD & GBPCAD

BIAS US CHANGE

SELL: STAYING THE SAME

BUY

USD: Bond yields going above 3% (+Sentiment)
SAFE HAVEN FLOWS (AUD, JPY, CHF): IRAN OIL IRAN OIL

TRADE 1 & 2
Short EURCAD and GBPCAD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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UPDATE 1: Closed the EURCAD to diversify my open trades (right before it tanked to my late-TP!) +12 pips
UPDATE 2: Closed the GBPCAD at TP +75 pips

TRADE 3
Short EURAUD, to diversify my holdings

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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UPDATE 1: Closed the EURAUD at +40 pips


TRADE 4 (NEWS)
Short USDCAD

Scalping the 1.30 PM announcement, -13 pips! The pair was already saturated/priced in so not the best pair to choose despite good fundamentals

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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*Re-entered some of my trades for a -2 pips loss overall
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #662
  • May 9, 2018 1:05am May 9, 2018 1:05am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Samson, To be honest, these days NFP is a joke. Nothing like it used to be and not at all scary. At one time it would have 100-200+ pop on a regular bases. Those days are gone. If I was already in a trade I usually make an adjustment if I am in profit at the time. News has effects but as I have stated before, a lot of times after the market absorbs the news the market continues on to its technical behavior. You will notice on most pairs, if a big news announcement is coming up like NFP, GDP, Bank Rate etc..., price will slow or bounce...
The NFP releases have become less important as the US is at their full employment target so it doesnt really matter what the numbers come out like unless its a really big miss.
The more important number is the Average Hourly Earnings as this has an impact on inflation and hence the probability of the Fed raising interest rates. The institutions are focused on this number now.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #663
  • Edited 2:13am May 9, 2018 1:30am | Edited 2:13am
Morning All,

4 trades today:

EUR/USD - Short - Same sentiment different day - hopefully we will see 1.18 today

USD/MXN - Long - political & nafta issues as usual - near profit target <<<< Profit target hit!!!!

GBP/AUD - Long - copper/gold low, trade wars - choppy but looking for R2 pivot (terrible entry but oh well)

USD/CHF long - risk on sentiment - hopefully yield sentiment will rally it more (Terrible entry)


I was long oil in the Asian session but cut it for 5 pip loss as I have been notified the iran trade was priced in <<< Humble pie for this one as traders are taking this Iran matter seriously!!!
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  • #664
  • May 9, 2018 1:50am May 9, 2018 1:50am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Samson, To be honest, these days NFP is a joke. Nothing like it used to be and not at all scary. At one time it would have 100-200+ pop on a regular bases. Those days are gone. If I was already in a trade I usually make an adjustment if I am in profit at the time. News has effects but as I have stated before, a lot of times after the market absorbs the news the market continues on to its technical behavior. You will notice on most pairs, if a big news announcement is coming up like NFP, GDP, Bank Rate etc..., price will slow or bounce...
NFP is a report news, it mean past data. it would have big impact if there no other stronger news followed like decision/ plan/ speech. Turn on your (bussiness) tv channel! they're more important news besides nfp.
"Hope" is dangerous word in trading, trade what you see not what you hope!
  • #665
  • May 9, 2018 2:23am May 9, 2018 2:23am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey Samson, To be honest, these days NFP is a joke. Nothing like it used to be and not at all scary. At one time it would have 100-200+ pop on a regular bases. Those days are gone. If I was already in a trade I usually make an adjustment if I am in profit at the time. News has effects but as I have stated before, a lot of times after the market absorbs the news the market continues on to its technical behavior. You will notice on most pairs, if a big news announcement is coming up like NFP, GDP, Bank Rate etc..., price will slow or bounce...
Yea your right about this as thats why options get bought heavy on a day like NFP.

NFP is a weird one. I prefer to trade the CAD employment live as it doesn't do any reversals like nfp does.

Yields are up up your trades must be doing well.
  • #666
  • Edited 9:56am May 9, 2018 8:03am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting Samson85
Morning All, 4 trades today: EUR/USD - Short - Same sentiment different day - hopefully we will see 1.18 today USD/MXN - Long - political & nafta issues as usual - near profit target <<<< Profit target hit!!!! GBP/AUD - Long - copper/gold low, trade wars - choppy but looking for R2 pivot (terrible entry but oh well) USD/CHF long - risk on sentiment - hopefully yield sentiment will rally it more (Terrible entry) I was long oil in the Asian session but cut it for 5 pip loss as I have been notified the iran trade was priced in <<< Humble pie...

GBP/AUD closed for 5 pips profit.

With Boe tomorrow I will revisit as this was a very choppy affair today.


This USD/CHF trade was annoying to watch as I bought it at the highs due to yields, but the positive I take is that I executed a perfect stop which was the previous days low as this trend has rarely been broken in relation to that I have the TP set to break even as I dont see it going past the R1 pivot!! (Has now hit break even)

My EUR/USD trade I set the stop to 1.19 as I knew this was a key psychological level. Lol both trades were less than 1cm from hitting the stop losses #Technicals I will let this trade run with a target of 1.18

I was in heavy draw-down today, but I still yet haven't lost a penny.
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  • #667
  • May 9, 2018 4:04pm May 9, 2018 4:04pm
Quoting zorndyke
{quote} NFP is a report news, it mean past data. it would have big impact if there no other stronger news followed like decision/ plan/ speech. Turn on your (bussiness) tv channel! they're more important news besides nfp.
I know that. Samson mentioned NFP and I was explaining why I don't care about it that much. I trade the Daily chart so most news has no large immediate effect on my trading. I am fully aware of all the news and how it may effect any open trades I have at the time. I get my news from several sources, not just TV channels.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #668
  • May 9, 2018 4:14pm May 9, 2018 4:14pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Yea your right about this as thats why options get bought heavy on a day like NFP. NFP is a weird one. I prefer to trade the CAD employment live as it doesn't do any reversals like nfp does. Yields are up up your trades must be doing well.
All I have left open currently is EURUSD Short, USDCHF long. USDCHF is not doing much. Should close out soon. EURUSD has moved a bit more, enough that I adjusted my stop by an additional 70 pips. Not sure what it has left.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #669
  • May 9, 2018 5:42pm May 9, 2018 5:42pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} All I have left open currently is EURUSD Short, USDCHF long. USDCHF is not doing much. Should close out soon. EURUSD has moved a bit more, enough that I adjusted my stop by an additional 70 pips. Not sure what it has left. - Ric
You not liking this move:


Citi announced it took an opportunistic long position in USD/JPY at 109.25 with a target of 112.30-112.40 and stop at 108.45

?
  • #670
  • May 9, 2018 10:09pm May 9, 2018 10:09pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} All I have left open currently is EURUSD Short, USDCHF long. USDCHF is not doing much. Should close out soon. EURUSD has moved a bit more, enough that I adjusted my stop by an additional 70 pips. Not sure what it has left. - Ric
USD/CHF I would hold on to because I think it can replicate the 1.20 level that EUR/CHEF did. Its only 200 points away from where the swiss bank crashed it.

For EUR/USD I have my stop set at 1.19 but I will close that before the BOE event tomorrow as EUR/USD will Follow the direction of cable which ever way it decides to go.
  • #671
  • May 9, 2018 11:28pm May 9, 2018 11:28pm
Quoting forexin101
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT) BIAS UK SELL GBP, EUR: Recent EUR strength and a bout of poor data make this a target BUY CAD: Iran deal cutting the supply of Oil PAIRS TO SHORT: EURCAD & GBPCAD BIAS US CHANGE SELL: STAYING THE SAME BUY USD: Bond yields going above 3% (+Sentiment) SAFE HAVEN FLOWS (AUD, JPY, CHF): IRAN OIL IRAN OIL TRADE 1 & 2 Short EURCAD and GBPCAD {image} UPDATE 1: Closed the EURCAD to diversify my open trades (right before it tanked...
This is an update from yesterdays session

I managed to gain a net +103 pips

Reviewing my trades there were two things that sprung up for improvement:

 

  1. Change my definition of what a safe haven currency is which is (JPY and Fixed income) and remove CHF, AUD from the definition as the markets are no longer perceiving them to have a haven status they once had
  2. I lost 12 pips trading the news reaction that had no major reaction, so enable patience before pulling the trigger!

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #672
  • May 9, 2018 11:37pm May 9, 2018 11:37pm
Quoting forexin101
{quote} This is an update from yesterdays session I managed to gain a net +103 pips Reviewing my trades there were two things that sprung up for improvement: Change my definition of what a safe haven currency is which is (JPY and Fixed income) and remove CHF, AUD from the definition as the markets are no longer perceiving them to have a haven status they once had I lost 12 pips trading the news reaction that had no major reaction, so enable patience before pulling the trigger!
Same as 10 Yr Government Bond Yields?
  • #673
  • May 10, 2018 12:15am May 10, 2018 12:15am
Today I am only in a eur/USD short from prior trade.

I will not be entering any trades as I will be trading the Boe event live which I have had success doing so many times. This will require strong mental preparation as well as improvisation based on possible scenarios.

Due to being abroad I was not able to trade nzd interest rate release, since then gbp/nzd has rallied hundreds of pips but unfortunately I was up the night before for the oil risk event.


Today is very tricky because if I swing trade cable of the back of the event today, what happens if USD cpi comes out not in line with the direction of my trade for tomorow? Lol

So one needs to be really aware of the econoic calendar, but I am contemplating trading today's event with gbp/jpy or gbp/aud or gbp/chf
  • #674
  • May 10, 2018 12:56am May 10, 2018 12:56am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Same as 10 Yr Government Bond Yields?
Yes, correct.
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #675
  • Edited May 11, 2018 12:34am May 10, 2018 1:15am | Edited May 11, 2018 12:34am
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT)

BIAS UK

SELL

EUR: Italy troubles, continuing the negative EUR sentiment

NZD: Dovish RBNZ but just like Samson85 alluded to the markets have really saturated its ATR during the Asian session so I personally would not expect much movement


GBP: Will wait to trade the news surrounding super Thursday
JPY: I would like to trade this pair for the downside but I feel the risk sentiment may be swayed on current geopolitical events that are occurring (N.Korea, China trade, Iran/Israel fighting)

I may decide to diversify holdings in the sell side of things for the US session depending on the outcome of the data

BUY

CAD: OIL AGAIN!

Pairs I will trade for the UK: EURCAD short

TRADE 1

Short EURCAD

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UPDATE: Closed out +24 pips! Which is quite shocking despite the fact that at one point it was a whisker away from my TP, but at least I stuck to my rules

TRADE 2 (NEWS)

Short GBPCAD

Attachment g

I normally have a strict strategy to capitalise on news announcements which I'm glad I stuck to, +72 pips

TRADE 3 (NEWS)

Short USDCAD

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Would have entered the downside on this trade, however, got stopped out, the USD strength had come from safe-haven flows into the T-30 bonds which had a decrease in yield, -8 pips


BIAS FOR THE US SESSION

SELL

GBP: Carney, dovish
NZD: Central bank dovish stance
AUD: Yields declining

Removed EUR, Italy coalition may improve things for the currency

BUY

CAD: OIL
JPY: Safe haven flows, Iran

I choose to trade the NZD/JPY and AUDCAD; the GBP pairs where oversaturated in pips it had left to give and felt that these pairs would soon reverse has they had retraced heavily, unfortunately, this resulted in a -24 pip loss, (12 each)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Reviewing this trade the AC was overly saturated and the NJ had a poor entry, if I was more regimented this would have only been a -12 pip loss

OVERALL: 64 pips
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #676
  • May 10, 2018 2:51pm May 10, 2018 2:51pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} USD/CHF I would hold on to because I think it can replicate the 1.20 level that EUR/CHEF did. Its only 200 points away from where the swiss bank crashed it. For EUR/USD I have my stop set at 1.19 but I will close that before the BOE event tomorrow as EUR/USD will Follow the direction of cable which ever way it decides to go.
Well my USDCHF SL of 1.0000 got hit while I slept. So, there you have it. +344.2 over 18 trading days. My EURUSD also closed out during US session @ 1.18914 +388 over 15 Trading days.

With that I am currently trade-less. Just in time for a slew of reports coming out this week and next. There is some opportunity coming up to get in on new trades based on fundamentals.

We shall See.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #677
  • May 10, 2018 6:09pm May 10, 2018 6:09pm
I traded the BOE minutes live and executed the trade very well by not getting sucked in by the vote count and made a decent profit.

After the presser was finished I decided to go short and the trade was successful and once it broke the daily low I added quite a large position which i got stopped out for due to breaking news from Carney that he expects to hike. There was no mention of Carney being on BBC otherwise I would have closed the trades. I never hold trades during interviews or press conferences because the reaction can be lightspeed.

More wins than losses this week but one trade can leave a foul taste in your mouth.
  • #678
  • May 10, 2018 6:25pm May 10, 2018 6:25pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Well my USDCHF SL of 1.0000 got hit while I slept. So, there you have it. +344.2 over 18 trading days. My EURUSD also closed out during US session @ 1.18914 +388 over 15 Trading days. With that I am currently trade-less. Just in time for a slew of reports coming out this week and next. There is some opportunity coming up to get in on new trades based on fundamentals. We shall See. - Ric
I still believe the usd/chf will go up gradually but it seems that eur/USD may have done a reversal. It rallied up on the cpi results then lost it's gains then regained them again. Will be interesting to see how long the momentum can last as it has been taking a hit.
  • #679
  • May 11, 2018 12:38am May 11, 2018 12:38am
Quoting forexin101
(THIS ONE THREAD WILL BE UPDATED DURING THE DAY AND THEN AT THE END OF THE DAY I WILL QUOTE A SUMMARY WITH A LINK TO IT) BIAS UK SELL EUR: Italy troubles, continuing the negative EUR sentiment NZD: Dovish RBNZ but just like Samson85 alluded to the markets have really saturated its ATR during the Asian session so I personally would not expect much movement GBP: Will wait to trade the news surrounding super Thursday JPY: I would like to trade this pair for the downside but I feel the risk sentiment may be swayed on current geopolitical events that...
Yesterday was a busy day, resulted in +64 pips, learning points:

 

  1. I have decided to re-add CHF as part of a (backup safe haven currency, 2nd to the JPY)
  2. Over the weekend to research indicators that can detect safe haven flows such as the Oil-Gold spread, VIX etc
  3. Tighten up my rules on capitalising on the news

To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #680
  • May 11, 2018 12:44am May 11, 2018 12:44am
Subs. Thanks and
Regards
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