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Pivot Trading

  • #18,381
  • May 8, 2018 9:28am May 8, 2018 9:28am
Quoting keepit
{quote} Appreciate your help Cryptosurf. I was reading your screen + your Davits qute = I understand, that R/S61, R/S78 and 100 are more, more important than my R38 witch I considered on my EURGBP chart, thats why you wrote I do not trade pivots?
Yes. That is correct.

If it were me, I would have considered taking the trade on the weekly open as it ended last week bouncing off the R61.

It may see further downside so you may be ok.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #18,382
  • May 8, 2018 9:32am May 8, 2018 9:32am
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Yes. That is correct. If it were me, I would have considered taking the trade on the weekly open as it ended last week bouncing off the R61. It may see further downside so you may be ok. {image}
thanks again for your help. next time will post smthg more related to Pivots!
  • #18,383
  • May 8, 2018 9:35am May 8, 2018 9:35am
Quoting keepit
{quote} thanks again for your help. next time will post smthg more related to Pivots!
If you watch and wait for these pivot rejecting, then its akin to low hanging fruit.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #18,384
  • May 8, 2018 9:49am May 8, 2018 9:49am
After closing GBPAUD sell trades last week here entered GBPAUD buy trades from the essential pivot points closed with +2810 points

GBPAUD Buy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD Buy 04052018.png Size: 163 KB


GBPAUD closed trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD H4 08052018 Closed Trade.png Size: 180 KB


Best regards
  • #18,385
  • May 8, 2018 10:06am May 8, 2018 10:06am
This week so far results shown below. Still got 3 more days to go. Some people are way more interested in P/L rather than trading pivots.

EURCAD H4 (Losing trade)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H4 Buy 04052018.png Size: 168 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H4 Losing trade closed.png Size: 232 KB


Best regards
  • #18,386
  • May 8, 2018 10:29am May 8, 2018 10:29am
Quoting MrAussieFX
This week so far results shown below. Still got 3 more days to go. Some people are way more interested in P/L rather than trading pivots. EURCAD H4 (Losing trade) {image} {image} Best regards
Hello MrAussie. Regarding the loosing trade, if this week S38 is more or less corresponding previous S100, we shouldnt go for it but wait for at least S61 for long?
  • #18,387
  • May 8, 2018 10:51am May 8, 2018 10:51am
Quoting keepit
{quote} Hello MrAussie. Regarding the loosing trade, if this week S38 is more or less corresponding previous S100, we shouldnt go for it but wait for at least S61 for long?
I don't want to be disrespectful but I really don't understand your question.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD H4 Buy 04052018.png Size: 233 KB


Best regards
  • #18,388
  • May 8, 2018 11:01am May 8, 2018 11:01am
Quoting MrAussieFX
{quote} I don't want to be disrespectful but I really don't understand your question. {image} Best regards
no problem, thank you for answering. What I mean, that level you have painted was valid last week and this week, pivots are calculated on different levels so today price is between S38 and pivot, right? So we were expecting long last week, but today - not.
We should wait for lower levels (below S61) and than look for long.
Right?
Or, we should remember (or use history option) those last week levels and enter long anyway now if there would be the proper setup?
I hope Its more clear now. thanks in advance.
  • #18,389
  • May 8, 2018 11:09am May 8, 2018 11:09am
Quoting MrAussieFX
This week so far results shown below. Still got 3 more days to go. Some people are way more interested in P/L rather than trading pivots. EURCAD H4 (Losing trade) {image} {image} Best regards
Hi, MrAussie
Your trade reminds me of Lastingwell's (remember, she also used this pivot). To be honest, IMHO, it looks closer to TMS rather than Davit's system. If it was TMS, your stop could be the low of the previous bar (you don't need to have such a deep SL). If it was Davit's system, your entry might not be the place to have any new positions. My understanding is, if Davit did this trade, he would open a couple of small lots and allowed some DD until it bounces at (next) pivot levels, and then he would quickly add up more positions to his favor. Are you really following his system? I don't see many resemblances between yours and Davit's. In my view, you still look like a TMS trader... Kindly correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks,
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #18,390
  • May 8, 2018 11:09am May 8, 2018 11:09am
Quoting keepit
{quote} no problem, thank you for answering. What I mean, that level you have painted was valid last week and this week, pivots are calculated on different levels so today price is between S38 and pivot, right? So we were expecting long last week, but today - not. We should wait for lower levels (below S61) and than look for long. Right? Or, we should remember (or use history option) those last week levels and enter long anyway now if there would be the proper setup? I hope Its more clear now. thanks in advance.
Normally, you would be correct however Mr. Aussie is an experienced user of Pivots as his record shows. If you're new to this, you should stick to the basic rules as Davit described on the 1st page and then as you gain more experience you can try the more advanced techniques a few of us are using here.

Mr. Aussie probably factoring in fundamentals and price action when he made that trading decision. Also, he is starting with a small position. He will add more when the price moves in a favorable direction, with fundamentals supporting it of course. I'm sure he will scale out if things don't work out. As Davit said, there is 70% probability the pivots will hold and guide the price back to the middle.
  • #18,391
  • May 8, 2018 11:10am May 8, 2018 11:10am
new entry, DXY in fall, up XAU...
waiting for the S38
I should not go far
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #18,392
  • May 8, 2018 11:43am May 8, 2018 11:43am
Quoting kik
new entry, DXY in fall, up XAU... waiting for the S38 I should not go far {image}
Both the USD and Yen are safe haven currencies. There's Trump's Iran announcement coming up at 2:00 pm. Should he announce complete withdrawal from the Iran deal, people are going to flock to USD and Yen.

You might want to look at USD and Yen pairs for more action. USD/JPY might not move much at all.
  • #18,393
  • May 8, 2018 11:56am May 8, 2018 11:56am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Hi, MrAussie Your trade reminds me of Lastingwell's (remember, she also used this pivot). To be honest, IMHO, it looks closer to TMS rather than Davit's system. If it was TMS, your stop could be the low of the previous bar (you don't need to have such a deep SL). If it was Davit's system, your entry might not be the place to have any new positions. My understanding is, if Davit did this trade, he would open a couple of small lots and allowed some DD until it bounces at (next) pivot levels, and then he would quickly add up more positions...
heispark I've moved on from TMS. I don't mean any disrespect to the OP of TMS (Big E) but now if I look back at TMS. Big E had enough money from his businesses and he was a kind person who wanted to help others with TMS (In my humble opinion TMS was a conservative way of trading) if we really want to be successful we have to enter where others retailers are placing their stop losses (Which according to pivot trading is a zone 61-100).

Are we going to be correct all the time, I guess not?

What I trade now is nothing to do with TMS.
I try to put more explanation in my charts so others can see the answers before they ask questions.

TMS was about
1. 1st candle, 2nd candle entry, Candle close entry
2. Average price bars
3. TDI crosses, hooks etc.

What you see in my charts now are
1. Pure Japanese Candles
2. Weekly pivots
3. TDI (Yes, it is a lagging indicator so it will show crosses and bounces on trade entries)
4. Previous levels where PA exhausted in short-term

See examples below:

GBPAUD trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD H4 Sell trade 02052018.png Size: 253 KB


There is no TMS related stuff here on GBPAUD trade, even the TDI was separated. No candle close entry scenario here.

AUDJPY trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY H4 02052018 Closed.png Size: 173 KB


TMS says close trade when TDi hooks back or cross red. I, on the other hand, added more to my trade and closed my trade where the previous short-term structure was even the TDI was hooking down.

I hope it answers your question.

Best regards
  • #18,394
  • May 8, 2018 12:15pm May 8, 2018 12:15pm
Quoting raklian
{quote} Normally, you would be correct however Mr. Aussie is an experienced user of Pivots as his record shows. If you're new to this, you should stick to the basic rules as Davit described on the 1st page and then as you gain more experience you can try the more advanced techniques a few of us are using here. Mr. Aussie probably factoring in fundamentals and price action when he made that trading decision. Also, he is starting with a small position. He will add more when the price moves in a favorable direction, with fundamentals supporting it...
Thanks for trying, but it was a question so I cannot be correct or wrong (or I can because I gave 2 possible answers
Once again:
last week end: the price on nice levels: S100. we took the trade (no doubt it was reasonable) but it was bad trade finally, price moved lower.
this week started: after recalculating pivot levels its not S100 but S38 (so not so good level to search for reversal), should we take long after angleator M30 confirmation (because we remember Friday = this level S100) or we should take this long (because now its S38)?
I hope its more clear now.
  • #18,395
  • May 8, 2018 12:20pm May 8, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting MrAussieFX
{quote} heispark I've moved on from TMS. I don't mean any disrespect to the OP of TMS (Big E) but now if I look back at TMS. Big E had enough money from his businesses and he was a kind person who wanted to help others with TMS (In my humble opinion TMS was a conservative way of trading) if we really want to be successful we have to enter where others retailers are placing their stop losses (Which according to pivot trading is a zone 61-100). Are we going to be correct all the time, I guess not? What I trade now is nothing to do with TMS. I try...
Thank you for details.
I asked my question because I saw your trading directions are often expansion (PP -> 38, 38 -> 61, etc.) rather than contraction. Also, your positions are stacked too closely (also sometimes limit orders used). Perhaps, I am wrong... Anyway, thank you for sharing your trading charts and ideas. It helps!
Thanks,
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #18,396
  • May 8, 2018 12:26pm May 8, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting keepit
{quote} Thanks for trying, but it was a question so I cannot be correct or wrong (or I can because I gave 2 possible answers Once again: last week end: the price on nice levels: S100. we took the trade (no doubt it was reasonable) but it was bad trade finally, price moved lower. this week started: after recalculating pivot levels its not S100 but S38 (so not so good level to search for reversal), should we take long after angleator M30 confirmation (because we remember Friday = this level S100) or we should take this long (because...
I would kindly suggest you do more reading and observe Davits charts. Click on his profile and click on images there would be around 4,991 images . Go through the charts, read the explanation.

From your questions, it seems like you haven't bothered to go through page 1 details and Davits charts.

Kindest regards
  • #18,397
  • Edited 12:50pm May 8, 2018 12:38pm | Edited 12:50pm
Quoting keepit
{quote} Thanks for trying, but it was a question so I cannot be correct or wrong (or I can because I gave 2 possible answers Once again: last week end: the price on nice levels: S100. we took the trade (no doubt it was reasonable) but it was bad trade finally, price moved lower. this week started: after recalculating pivot levels its not S100 but S38 (so not so good level to search for reversal), should we take long after angleator M30 confirmation (because we remember Friday = this level S100) or we should take this long (because...
I'm not seeing any mention of fundamentals. I wouldn't have taken the trades you took because I've been reading up the latest fundamentals and they were stacked against the positions you had. Looking at the weekly calendar and planning trades around these news events would have given you a clear trade plan to base your trades on. Lots of forex websites publish weekly forecasts for each currency and their news events, and reading those would have given you a clearer picture of where things stand in terms of the overall fundamental picture. And then you add the relative positions of price compared to pivots (especially 61-100). All of sudden you can kind of know in advance where and when the turning points will take place. Those pivots are a way of telling you the market is fully pricing in the latest fundamentals and its move is about to be exhausted as long as there are no new fundamental events that indicate otherwise although sometimes the market makers want to keep pushing price further than it's supposed to do but it'll bounce back with a vengeance. Why do you think Davit keeps winning trades? You can bet it wasn't pure luck.
  • #18,398
  • May 8, 2018 12:43pm May 8, 2018 12:43pm
Thank you MrAussieFX and raklian.
I will try do my homework better!
  • #18,399
  • May 8, 2018 12:54pm May 8, 2018 12:54pm
Read this article if you want to prepare for the Trump's Iran announcement.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/3-ways-t...or-currencies/


Sometimes, it's good to read others' perspective on fundamentals.
  • #18,400
  • May 8, 2018 1:22pm May 8, 2018 1:22pm
US withdraws from the Iran deal - Oil should shoot up
Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
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