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  • #701
  • May 7, 2018 12:05pm May 7, 2018 12:05pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} IMO, a hawkish stance is likely from BoE. But not for the reason most think. What ive noticed looking through the economic data is that UKs high inflation was a product of their sudden currency devaluation. Which puts them in a rather unique situation of high inflation but lowering purchasing power growth and productivity growth. BoE seems to be talking up the pound as a strategy to combat this problem. Notice past BoE meetings? How they all seem to have hawkish hints to them? From the 7-2 votes to Carney's hawkish tone. All of this is an...
This will help you

https://think.ing.com/articles/our-b...may-rate-hike/
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  • #702
  • May 7, 2018 3:15pm May 7, 2018 3:15pm
Here is Saunders speech:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/me...nd-gradual.pdf

He is determined to get interest rates back to 2%
His main focus seems to be wage inflation and the unemployment rate
Wages have picked up - however last month missed estimates, matching the previous increase 2.8%
Unemployment is at a 4.2% - a 40 year low

Looking at the economic figures:
GDP had a massive miss - and weather was not too blame, according to the ONS
PMIs are still positive (50+) but the increases are slowing.

On balance I think its 60/40 he will vote for a hike
For me its not a trade I can take. As this would match the forecast 2-0-7

The best trade I think will be if there is any divergence against previous inflation/growth estimates
  • #703
  • May 7, 2018 5:05pm May 7, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting Fader123
... The best trade I think will be if there is any divergence against previous inflation/growth estimates
divergence to the upside? or to the downside?

In the case that it is to the upside, Is it possible the market may show a lack of confidence in the BOE's ability to forecast accurately and follow through?
  • #704
  • May 7, 2018 5:55pm May 7, 2018 5:55pm
From the recent figures - I thinks it is going to be unlikely that the BOE will be able to increase their forecasts for inflation and CPI

Carney has pushed back on a rate rise this month- this indicates a wait and see.

Really you would expect the BOE to be more slightly dovish - and this should be reflected in the forecasts.

Then if figures get worse before August at least the market is ready
  • #705
  • May 7, 2018 7:42pm May 7, 2018 7:42pm
Quoting Fader123
From the recent figures - I thinks it is going to be unlikely that the BOE will be able to increase their forecasts for inflation and CPI Carney has pushed back on a rate rise this month- this indicates a wait and see. Really you would expect the BOE to be more slightly dovish - and this should be reflected in the forecasts. Then if figures get worse before August at least the market is ready
Understood that the figures are mostly pointing to a dovish stance.
My point was that BoE might be trying to talk up the pound instead of going through standard monetary policy paths. Given their previous patterns... It does seem like an alternative scenario...
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #706
  • May 7, 2018 8:47pm May 7, 2018 8:47pm
Do you think the AUD Retail Sales new release just now affected EURUSD? Had a big move down at the same exact time as the release.
  • #707
  • May 7, 2018 8:49pm May 7, 2018 8:49pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} Understood that the figures are mostly pointing to a dovish stance. My point was that BoE might be trying to talk up the pound instead of going through standard monetary policy paths. Given their previous patterns... It does seem like an alternative scenario...
I kind of agree with you because the data was clearly influenced by the weather hence such a decline.
  • #708
  • May 7, 2018 8:51pm May 7, 2018 8:51pm
Quoting bojack34
Do you think the AUD Retail Sales new release just now affected EURUSD? Had a big move down at the same exact time as the release.
Intuitively it shouldn't.

But as you said there were reactions in the eurusd at the same time as AUD retail sales release. So it can the hypothesized that it does affect eurusd in some ways. It is not clear how thou.

Imo maybe it was due to USD strength as investors flock away from AUD.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #709
  • May 7, 2018 9:07pm May 7, 2018 9:07pm
Honestly I think it was just a massive Gold sell for USD, which then affected all other charts . But I'm a noob
  • #710
  • May 8, 2018 10:15am May 8, 2018 10:15am
Now I regret exit my OIL short too early. I suspected that whatever will be the outcome, the trade looked more and more like a sell regardless. Now looks like Trump isn't pulling out.
  • #711
  • May 8, 2018 11:17am May 8, 2018 11:17am
Conflicting reports all over the media. Thankfully, I'm out of the trade for now
  • #712
  • May 8, 2018 1:30pm May 8, 2018 1:30pm
Anyone get some of that move on oil.
  • #713
  • May 9, 2018 6:14am May 9, 2018 6:14am
There seems to be a feeling that if the BOE doesn't hike now, then Carney may lose the chance to hike this year or at all before the end of his tenure.. seeing as the outlook for inflation and brexit risks isn't very positive.

Any chance we will see a BEARISH HIKE?

Whatever the outcome, GBP continues to look bearish in the near-medium term.
  • #714
  • May 10, 2018 10:45am May 10, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Fader123
From the recent figures - I thinks it is going to be unlikely that the BOE will be able to increase their forecasts for inflation and CPI Carney has pushed back on a rate rise this month- this indicates a wait and see. Really you would expect the BOE to be more slightly dovish - and this should be reflected in the forecasts. Then if figures get worse before August at least the market is ready
Mark Carney could not really say anything else. The markets would have seen through it.
I just know that he is truthful and honest. The cut in growth forecasts really did it.
The ONS has said that the down turn in the GDP figures was not due to the weather.
Pretty obvious really.
Would have taken some explaining for something different - with all of the evidence pilling up (PMI, CPI, GDP, consumer sentiment, house prices dropping etc.....)
To be honest - when the IMF cut their UK growth forecasts - it seemed odd to me that the BOE increased theirs a short time later.
I know that the market jumped on the back of it- but there you go. Forecasts are always difficult
4rXal-ghul were you on
  • #715
  • May 11, 2018 10:55am May 11, 2018 10:55am
Quoting Fader123
{quote} ..4rXal-ghul were you on
Sold GBPAUD into the event... took profits a couple hours before the event.

After the announcement, I remained very cautious with my entry... missed some nice pullbacks on GBPJPY, GBPUSD (GBPCAD especially). Then later I entered short GBPUSD on a pull back, but I felt US CPI and Carney's interview was complicating the trade so I exited for a small loss.

Question now is: what next for GBP? Are we going to see a correction of the past weeks move, now the event has come and gone? Will attention turn now to UK politics?

I am looking forward to the next batch of UK data releases.
  • #716
  • May 11, 2018 11:00am May 11, 2018 11:00am
Just curious... Do you guys typically trade the news?
Anyone takes a longer term trade horizon (months?)
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #717
  • May 11, 2018 3:59pm May 11, 2018 3:59pm
We are all different - each one of us trades differently
For me news trading is one of the easiest ways to trade.
Regarding t/f not sure if I could hold a position for months.
  • #718
  • May 11, 2018 7:35pm May 11, 2018 7:35pm
Quoting Fader123
We are all different - each one of us trades differently For me news trading is one of the easiest ways to trade. Regarding t/f not sure if I could hold a position for months.
Guess I will be all alone if I were to talk long term then...
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #719
  • May 11, 2018 8:06pm May 11, 2018 8:06pm
Quoting synicz
Just curious... Do you guys typically trade the news? Anyone takes a longer term trade horizon (months?)
I take longer term trades.

I will re-enter aud/nzd at a better pull back hoping for 1.12 which could take a while to reach.

My next swings will be on eur/USD and gbp/USD.
  • #720
  • May 11, 2018 8:23pm May 11, 2018 8:23pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I take longer term trades. I will re-enter aud/nzd at a better pull back hoping for 1.12 which could take a while to reach. My next swings will be on eur/USD and gbp/USD.
Why AUDNZD? Whats the narrative behind these currencies?
I look for value wherever it can be found
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