NZD/USD

NZD employment rate and unemployment rate due to come out.. any tips or hints of what the market might do?

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I've started this month with a little drawdown as expected. Let's see now, what is NZDUSD doing, and what I expect:

Monthly: Last week I said " with only one day left to the end of the month, it looks like we will have the BEOB. We only need a close below of 0.7155 to confirm it. If so, the bearish implications will be relevant". Well, the month closed at 0.70348, so it's a BEOB bar. A BEOB after hitting resistance is obviously bearish. The first target is 0.6780 (November 2017, minimum)

Weekly: Another bearish week. If you look the weekly chart, you will find that movements with more than 3 consecutive bearish weeks are strange, so next week will be probably bullish.

Daily: April 30 CIT failed, I considered as a valid CIT because of the price action on April 27, but finally failed, and this causes me some unexpected losses.
After that, there was the May 3 CIT, and with the price action on that day, it looks like is working. Price also reversed after hitting "reaction line 3", and is inside support zone (Dodger blue rectangle).

For all of this, I still expect a pullback to the resistance zone ( yellow rectangle), in which case, I will resume the selling aggressively.

Trading can be simple if we don't put to many bloody lines on our charts.

A H4 trend has developed but its very early to call till London open.
I will place a Buy Stop Limit order at Demand around .7050
A safer option would be wait for the next Higher Low.

I assume you are saying this against me. If you don't know what a reaction line is, please, don't do comments like the one above. I don't criticize your work, so please, respect mine.

Those lines are there for one reason and aren't useless.

Hi Jordi

I must admit that line was probably out of place, sorry.
My comment is in regard to so much information been laid out on your charts. I dropped the use of trendlines / reaction lines years ago because they cluttered up my charts too much and were for me too future focussed. I am only worried about the next 7 days and what the next 4 hour candle may be, not next month.
I am not judging your excellent work, just CONFUSED by looking at so many lines.
Now we have introduced ourselves, you have given a expert opinion on the next movement on this pair.
Are you going opening a Long on Monday.

Hi RickM, that's ok. I use reaction lines and Andrew's trident only as another tool. I'm already long (since April 30)and if price moves in my favor, I will add, because I expect a nice pullback, but I can be wrong, of course

yup i second that. buy around 0.7060 . otherwise we in bearish mode

looks like inflation news has affected the NZD/usd.. bearish mode at the mo

- Downside is over for now, was looking for 0.6850 but ... .

Still selling the NZDUSD - I wouldn't think about buying this pair until it crosses the H4 60 EMA

Hi, certainly the selling pressure is still strong, but my plan hasn't changed since last week. I'm waiting for a pullback.

If you are tracking the NZDUSD, consider this technical perspective.

On the daily time frame, price action has rejected the horizontal channel (magenta) where it has been operating between February and April 2018. A rejection pinbar was formed last week Thursday which was followed on Friday by a bullish candlestick, and we may expect a northward pullback in the early part of this week. A likely area price action can retrace to is the minor resistance around the 0.70380 area before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

I just switched to the short side. It looks like a direct drop to the 0.6760 zone is possible, without the expected pullback.

According to Price action .. historically 0.68 had been a great support. I am still bullish on this above 0.68.. my target is 0.72... below 0.68 the targets would be 0.67

0.66 0.59 respectively.. and ofcourse with bullish retracements...


Be mindful of your own trading philosophy and analysis. Stay Green.

Good socialist budget from NZ today.

Bit of short covering/profit taking on the NZD and AUD .

Still see alot of downside on the kiwi .. very optimistic on growth and jobs

no signs on nzd strength yet.everything points bearish at the moment

Bearish it is

Back in short @ .6908, tight SL @ .6930, TP @ .6860 but flexible

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...uyers-refunded

Property prices are coming down and now the developers are in strife.

Australia will be in headlines next as well more so than NZ as the banking Royal commission will make tougher lending rules after the banks didnt adhere to the guidelines.