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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #40,121
  • May 4, 2018 10:03am May 4, 2018 10:03am
I've had good success lately fading these things and attempted to do so here but had to rescue this one.
I was slow hitting the Sell button on the first position which started me off in trouble.
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  • #40,122
  • May 4, 2018 10:05am May 4, 2018 10:05am
Wasn't able to catch this run away train today. So I think I'm going to call it a week.

This weeks stats:
271+ net
4 large winners (averaging 100+)
3 small losers (averaging -10)
5 BEs
  • #40,123
  • May 4, 2018 10:32am May 4, 2018 10:32am
Quoting evocpr19
YM today: Wish all a nice WE. {image}
Hi Evo i dont understand why you take the first two shorts because the swing was very bullish(big green candle) to the upside.
  • #40,124
  • May 4, 2018 10:34am May 4, 2018 10:34am
Quoting Unichamp
{quote} Hi Evo i dont understand why you take the first two shorts because the swing was very bullish(big green candle) to the upside.
Pretty sure he did that looking at a 233 tick chart cause the expectation was for a NSL.
  • #40,125
  • May 4, 2018 11:00am May 4, 2018 11:00am
Today - 4 Trades
1x Loser -62
2x Winners +27, +51
1x BE +1
------------------------
Total +17

Week - 25 trades
17x Winners/BE
8x Losers
68% w/l
Total Points +128

Have a nice weekend everyone!
  • #40,126
  • Edited 12:13pm May 4, 2018 12:02pm | Edited 12:13pm
Two more trades for -30 and BE+2

All in all -21 for the day.
On the first trade on the chart I was looking at the orderflow change on the immediate. I didn't like the momentum to the upside but rotation was too tempting.
Edit: A big flaw in my trading that I notice is always assuming OFC when nothing significant has happened...
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  • #40,127
  • May 4, 2018 12:41pm May 4, 2018 12:41pm
sorry for the bad English
Thanks Mr. Pip and everyone for the inspiration and education that all you bring when post your trades.
I hope this post is the first of many. I want to continue executing Mr. Pip's strategy correctly and post my progress.

Total: +44
-32, +1, +63, +12

When the expectation to the downside fail, around 9:30 am I fell paralyzed. I analyzed the new expectation to the upside correct but I did not have enough courage to enter in the rotations. I hope to increase my courage with time and execute more trades correctly. Happy weekend everyone!!!
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  • #40,128
  • May 4, 2018 2:06pm May 4, 2018 2:06pm
Quoting x3m-PippiN
{quote} Pretty sure he did that looking at a 233 tick chart cause the expectation was for a NSL.
and because of immediate PA. The initial steam exhausted very fast.
  • #40,129
  • May 5, 2018 3:10am May 5, 2018 3:10am
Quoting Mr. Pip
I forgot to show the stats for April. It wasn't a great month I took some days off and was distracted with some aviation stuff but goes to show you that having the RR on your side one can trade like crap and still make money. I lost around 40% of my trades but will made nice PL. {image}
Thanks a lot. This is very inspiring. Roughly how many trades did you take in April (also split into 1597 and 233/144 if possible). Thanks.
  • #40,130
  • May 6, 2018 7:17am May 6, 2018 7:17am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi: On follow up of my USDJPY expectation weekly: The long position i have taken previously on a demo account, is now 217 pips green, and i have drawn my expectations, lets see which path it will take , and what would be the main trend for the next several week...? {image} As you may have noticed Sl is 625 pips behind the Average Open Price (AOP), and TP 1346 pips above it, around 2:1 R:R ratio.
Update on USDJPY weekly:
I have exited the long position with around 300 pip and after a rotation candle on daily TF i entered short and this is my new expectation and settings now:
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And this is the D1 timeframe of the same chart and its rotation candle:
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  • #40,131
  • Edited 8:52am May 6, 2018 7:52am | Edited 8:52am
Hi Folks,

I am a newbie to the harmonics and identifying the patterns.

Is this the correct Bat pattern on AUDCHF on H4 timeframe? If yes, where should be the the target?
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  • #40,132
  • May 6, 2018 9:27am May 6, 2018 9:27am
is it just me or the support and resistance has no consistency i mean i try to use it but it's like 50/50?
  • #40,133
  • May 6, 2018 12:04pm May 6, 2018 12:04pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Update on USDJPY weekly: I have exited the long position with around 300 pip and after a rotation candle on daily TF i entered short and this is my new expectation and settings now: {image} And this is the D1 timeframe of the same chart and its rotation candle: {image}
Looking to long this pair at around 107.940. Good luck on the trade brother!
"Luck is when opportunity meets preparation"
  • #40,134
  • May 6, 2018 12:13pm May 6, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting vladutz112
is it just me or the support and resistance has no consistency i mean i try to use it but it's like 50/50?
This is the Friday session. looking over fast I have 69.4% probability that a S/R will work. If that is used as a structure and you add the expectation of the order flow as taught by mr. pip you will have a much higher percentage. The support and resistance can not be used alone. You have to use it with the expectation. I hope this helps.
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  • #40,135
  • May 6, 2018 1:58pm May 6, 2018 1:58pm
Could someone provide a little clarification on the rules for the limit side of the OCO that Damian uses once in a trade? From the material reviewed so far it appears this order is just out there, because as a general rule the default is to keep moving the limit further out to give price room to run and trail with the stop order. The only scenario that seems to provide a valid use is if in the event you are pulled away from the charts. If this were to take place the aggressive manual management cannot be implemented but the defined profit target (and risk) can still be achieved, maintaining some degree of the expectancy. Is this a correct assertation of its use?
  • #40,136
  • May 6, 2018 2:16pm May 6, 2018 2:16pm
Quoting bmdenton23
Today - 4 Trades 1x Loser -62 2x Winners +27, +51 1x BE +1 ------------------------ Total +17 Week - 25 trades 17x Winners/BE 8x Losers 68% w/l Total Points +128 Have a nice weekend everyone!
Hi Bmdenton, do you have a statsitic of all your trades separated into Losers / BE / Winners? Unfortunetly I only have Losers and Winners (including BE).
Would you be kind enough to provide these stats if you have them?

I would love to do some math and see if we can optimize the winrate by spliting the position size and scale out 1 part @ Test of StructureHigh/Low and only trail the second part of the position to the 1:1 or 127

Obv sharing the results in the thread afterwards!

cheers
  • #40,137
  • May 6, 2018 4:14pm May 6, 2018 4:14pm
Quoting ElMariachi
{quote} Hi Bmdenton, do you have a statsitic of all your trades separated into Losers / BE / Winners? Unfortunetly I only have Losers and Winners (including BE). Would you be kind enough to provide these stats if you have them? I would love to do some math and see if we can optimize the winrate by spliting the position size and scale out 1 part @ Test of StructureHigh/Low and only trail the second part of the position to the 1:1 or 127 Obv sharing the results in the thread afterwards! cheers
Unfortunately I don't long term, I'm going to start keeping up with each trade though because I've become more and more concerned about my declining win amount/loss amount ratio. I do have those numbers in front of me for the past 2 weeks on the YM, obviously that's not a large enough sample size....

2 week totals, 46 trades
30 winners (non break-even trades)
8 break evens
8 Losers
83% w/l

Your point being that it would've been possible to take partial profit on those 8 break evens.
I've asked Damian about that before and he didn't seem very keen on it, obviously he doesn't do it.
I have taken partial profit on occasion when I get a nasty rotation against me at the previous structure high/low, but not that often.
Maybe 1/3 or 1/4 profit if you're able to take enough contracts??
  • #40,138
  • Edited 11:04pm May 6, 2018 9:13pm | Edited 11:04pm
Quoting Sheeep44
{quote} Looking to long this pair at around 107.940. Good luck on the trade brother!
But i am 30 pips in profit already and still continuing, on my short position. your suggestion is one of my option as i have drawn , i expect rotation around 107.750 and it is around 120 pips down ,still to go . When you are trading weekly 20 pips difference does not count.
  • #40,139
  • May 6, 2018 10:47pm May 6, 2018 10:47pm
Hey guys,

I just want to say that I am absolutely loving this thread! Damian, you're a true gent. I am currently on page 1150 and counting. I started from the link suggested on the first page.

It is like reading a book, and the videos being the additional extra! I plan to continue reading and taking notes (ten pages and counting) and then join you guys...

Keep up the good work and thank you.

Aaron.
  • #40,140
  • May 7, 2018 1:47am May 7, 2018 1:47am
Quoting bmdenton23
{quote} Unfortunately I don't long term, I'm going to start keeping up with each trade though because I've become more and more concerned about my declining win amount/loss amount ratio. I do have those numbers in front of me for the past 2 weeks on the YM, obviously that's not a large enough sample size.... 2 week totals, 46 trades 30 winners (non break-even trades) 8 break evens 8 Losers 83% w/l Your point being that it would've been possible to take partial profit on those 8 break evens. I've asked Damian about that before and he didn't seem...
Thx for your answer. With that winrate: 30 Winners vs 8 BE it obviously does not make any sense to scale out early Maybe we can gather some data and do the math when we hav a better samplesize (200+ Trades). Ill keep track of it from now.

It also depends on how big the swing is. The scaleout might work better for longer term Trades. Well have to see. So far i am not changing anything on the strategy
Cheers
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