EURUSD only

Please, take plain statements like this with a grain of salt. There are certainly reasons to believe EU goes to 1.15 (and it may go... but when?) but there are also reasons that EU takes a quick break.
Although... the USD will almost guaranteed strengthen in to the summer... but that means for the next 2...3 month.

As for you better to watch the price action... and that at the moment doesn't look that it will go straight down the next week...
Just my 2c... take care.

Yep ... this is what I mean.

Please Yvonnely look at this... and see the RSI is in the vicinity of 32% ... that's close to oversold territory

id like to see the dxy tag that supply area the red box it’s an extremely strong supply zone. We could see the dollar decline here but I’d prefer to see it push up 40 pips past it’s wick into the supply zone the gu and the Eu are in demand zones and for some magical reason both the bottom of the demand zones are around 40 odd pips to the bottom (from the wicks) isn’t it magical how it lines up with the index
so the EU may fall but only around 40 odd pips from the bottom of the wick I have no interest in selling here what so ever

can it make a push toward 1.20 - 1.201 today ?

don't know.. that london close made it tough.. seems like 1.1991 - 1.1986 might be the limit today..

Look back at EU when it dropped from 1.3999 to 1.05 .....That drop took over 16 months and EU never had a green month.

I would love to have that USDindex chart too... what or broker is that... if I may ask?

That’s just trading view buddy that’s the reason I use it lol

Valid target, but perhaps next week.

40 pips....less than 3 hours left...

Yes it can.
Spikes normal.
I'd wait 1.2000 and sell near it. 1.2003

Then sell for 1.1830 area but need chart...

Last predictions were really nice.


I decided to post once a week. Or at news.
Otherwise will have life.

Green days!!

Quick M30 Outlook for Sunday Market Opening

Chart is self explanatory.. (The chart uses the 10 EMA)

Also notice that the spiking candle follwed by a long bearish candle during NfP was telling a story: "I want to go north but oops wait wait..(that's where the spike happened) let me first give them the impression I want to go further down (that's where the bearish candle formed and even closed low nicely) and now just pretend we will have a retrace first to go further down (that's where price started going back higher to a level where everybody now believes it is just a retrace)....

Imho.. next step after market opens: Give them the impression that retrace is over and continue to go as low as you can to suck in as many bears as you can.. then finally reveal your evil agenda by going up high to levels nobody expected..

Fundamentals? Forget fundamentals.. it is manipumentals that leads the markets: World War 3 is Trade Wars

Good luck for coming week

Stay Green

After a good 10 day run, I got my ass chewed up today. Lessons learned for sure. Hope everyone made $$$ this week. Enjoy the weekend! Happy Trading!!

Hi Neil0163,

Thanks for the post, as i know nothing about supply and demand,

Would it be right to say that supply and demand is just another way of saying buying or selling or even accumulation/overbought or oversold ???

Thanking you in advance.

Brian Dingman-two

Sorry for the late reply, so supply and demand.
Supply and demand is found in any form of market. Supply in forex terms- Buyers think “hey there’s no way I’m paying this high price for this Euro at the minute it’s way to expensive I just have no interest in buying” this of course means there’s NO demand people don’t want to be buying the Euro at those prices.
Sellers think-“man I bought this so cheap I’m going to sell this and make my money” this is where supply kicks in

Demand.
Buyer perspective- dam this Euro is cheap I want to buy loads of it at this price”
seller perspective”-I can’t cash in on my euro because I bought it too high if I sell this now I want be able to make money I’ll wait till people buy this euro till it goes higher.”

An easier way to think of it I suppose you go down your local supermarket you see you best ice cream down there it’s usually $4 but this week it’s only $1 on sale so instead of getting 1 tub you buy 4 because it’s cheaper and it just makes sense. The next week you go back to the same shop to see if there’s anymore on sale for your friends but when you go back it’s at $8 there’s no way your going to buy it at that price so you say to your friends “hey man I’ve got 3 extra tubs I’ll sell you those for $6 a tub. That’s supply and demand

demand is where people think things are cheap and a really good price to buy things at.
supply is where people think things are expensive and there going to sell there product to make there money.

There is always supply and demand someone has to be willing to demand (buy) for you to supply (sell)

the classic wolf of Wall Street quote
“sell me this pen”-person 1
”sell you this pen? Ok do me a favour write your name down on that napkin”-person 2
”I can’t I don’t have a pen”-person 1


Ok so we’ve got a sort of idea on understand about what supply and demand is so how do big institutions and banks use supply and demand

well they simply buy low and sell high people try and jump on “the trend” but tell me why would you want to sell low?? Why would you want to sell when prices are already cheaper than what they should be? Why would you want to sell your ice cream you bought at $1 for 50 cent? You just wouldn’t want too.

Look how much the Dollar has rallied up its made the euro plummet. Now I wouldn’t want to sell my Euro at these cheap prices, I don’t want to buy the dollar whilst it’s this expensive.

The key to take away is that Banks and large institutions always always always buy into selling pressure and sell into buying pressure they don’t sit there and go hey we’re making this euro go cheap I think it’s good if we sell here. No no no they sit there and go “right we’ve triggered this huge sell off in the EU it’s gone so cheap let’s simply buy it now whilst it’s cheap. The retail trader sits there and thinks dam this thing is plummeting it’s going lower and lower I’m going to jump on this trend.

Now remember how I said in order for someone to buy someone needs to be willing to sell.

The retail trader “trend follower” is willing to sell.
The banks are willing to buy from the retail trader at these cheap cheap prices.

Now that’s not to say that trend following isn’t good but you need to get in near the top of the trend you need to get into the sells when the banks start to sell and buy when the banks start to buy.

So when we see a huge sell off not all orders will be filled instantly by the bank they simply can’t fill all those sells at once which means when price comes back to the supply (sell) zone those orders that where not filled will be filled. This is what we are looking to catch. Now if you see on. The DaX chart I posted you see price just shot off down and the dollar had a sell off (supply overcome demand) and price didn’t come back once so chances are there will still be a lot of sell orders waiting there to be triggered still from big banks and institutions because they are willing to sell at that price. Now this may not be the case however there’s a really good chance there is as price had no interest in anyone buying at those levels.
This doesn’t mean we instantly sell there we need to see how price reacts should it leave the area fast we know there’s sell order there being triggered and we get in.

This is how you buy low and sell high.

just remember the dollar ice cream theory

based on daily

pivot 1.9556
sell region 1.9591 if it hold and move to pivot 1.9556

buy region 1.9521 if it holds

extreme bearish move down to 1.9165 or 1.8705

if sell region 1.9591 is not giving away for bear then it is bull

for uk and usa market

we also have pin bar in daily like over sold and macd is also gone down prettey down

since becasue of nfp with a swing of 85 pip I discounted it to 35 pip swing it could be only 20 pip swing there is no spicey data

My expectation for EU on next week

could be true but we will not move asap