1
- #20,744
- May 4, 2018 6:15am May 4, 2018 6:15am
- Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Just a little Aussi Battler | 4,571 Posts
- #20,748
- May 4, 2018 6:19am May 4, 2018 6:19am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
{quote} Disagree. My take is that the slowing of the rise in wages is good for the Fed, because that means inflation is calming down a little (still positive), so doesn't put them under pressure to make any changes to monetary that could jeopardise their economy. The market likes reassurance and, based on this news, the Fed won't be making any unexpected moves. Edit - it's the part of the quote past the bit that you have highlighted in bold that has given the dollar more strength.
In theory, this is how this should work. But in practice, well we see the price here now so.
{quote} "Gradual path" also means the dollar weakens. If the market is assured and does not think that the FED will raise rates faster/unexpectedly, then this should weaken the dollar. Anything indicating unexpected or rates rising faster should in theory strengthen the USD. Anything alleviating doubt or trade tensions should cause a fall. In theory, this is how this should work. But in practice, well we see the price here now so.
The release today has pretty much just said 'we're very much on track, we're just 0.1% away from where we thought wages would be and have added some less jobs', which happens seasonally anyway.
Apart from a technical perspective, I don't see why the Euro would bounce. The dollar is fundamentally stronger on all counts.
All of that said, it's extremely healthy to be in an environment where we can all share differing opinions and, like you say, price is price at the end of the day and the market is never wrong (unfortunately, sometimes!).
- #20,752
- May 4, 2018 6:27am May 4, 2018 6:27am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,498 Posts
Moved as expected earned some very very very good pips. Still some shorts running. 
$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$
- #20,753
- May 4, 2018 6:32am May 4, 2018 6:32am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
I guess this news caused this recent spike down? 
"
09:26 ET - The April decline in the unemployment rate--to 3.9% from 4.1% in March--isn't all it seems. Analysts note that the slide--which was steeper than the decline to 4.0% that economists had forecast--was driven in part by the 236,000 Americans who left the labor force last month. PNC chief economist Gus Faucher described the participation-rate decline as "not good," and Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler describes it as "undesirable." Overall the participation rate edged down to 62.8% from 62.9% in March, a potential signal that workers aren't feeling very optimistic about their job prospects. ([email protected]; [email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
"
Seeing this now on the feed- basically mixed data really:
DJ U.S. Jobs Report: Fed-Fund Futures Point to Smaller Chance of Fourth Rate Rise 2018.05.04 16:27:24
DJ Analysis: Falling Unemployment Rate Highlights Tensions Facing Fed Officials 2018.05.04 16:27:24
"
09:26 ET - The April decline in the unemployment rate--to 3.9% from 4.1% in March--isn't all it seems. Analysts note that the slide--which was steeper than the decline to 4.0% that economists had forecast--was driven in part by the 236,000 Americans who left the labor force last month. PNC chief economist Gus Faucher described the participation-rate decline as "not good," and Brown Brothers Harriman's Marc Chandler describes it as "undesirable." Overall the participation rate edged down to 62.8% from 62.9% in March, a potential signal that workers aren't feeling very optimistic about their job prospects. ([email protected]; [email protected])
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
"
Seeing this now on the feed- basically mixed data really:
DJ U.S. Jobs Report: Fed-Fund Futures Point to Smaller Chance of Fourth Rate Rise 2018.05.04 16:27:24
DJ Analysis: Falling Unemployment Rate Highlights Tensions Facing Fed Officials 2018.05.04 16:27:24
- #20,755
- May 4, 2018 6:38am May 4, 2018 6:38am
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,584 Posts
Ecclesiastes 1:9
- #20,756
- May 4, 2018 6:39am May 4, 2018 6:39am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: The Voodoo Boodoo Club | 42,084 Posts
- #20,757
- May 4, 2018 6:41am May 4, 2018 6:41am
- | Joined May 2014 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
{quote} Hope you are right....1.203...needs a huge turnaround.
- #20,759
- May 4, 2018 6:48am May 4, 2018 6:48am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,300 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
