Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100% | Page 28 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Turn $100 into $10k in 100 trading days = high stress high RR 121 replies

High Leverage Trading, Going For A 100 Million, 100% A Week 149 replies

High Leverage Trading, 100k To 100 Million, 100% A Week 23 replies

Always Trading With a 1/1 RR Ratio 25 replies

The Market is always Technical 0 replies

Attachments: Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%
Exit Attachments

Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #541
  • May 3, 2018 11:01am May 3, 2018 11:01am
Quoting antonblood63
i think Forex Factory already provide a good and accurate forex calendar (especially for medium and big news). You can use the filter for medium or high impact news.
Thats what I do/use
  • #542
  • May 3, 2018 11:03am May 3, 2018 11:03am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} So if a person was ONLY trading EURUSD, what would be the news releases you would focus on? Which ones REALLY move the market? Currently I am only trading EU and I have been watching ALL EUR and USD red and orange news releases depending on the numbers forecast....how "off" they are projected. EDIT: I forgot to mention that I don't trade on Fridays ever! So I don't have to worry about NFP.
They main things to focus on are

Are:

interest rate releaes
NFP
Geopolitical
USD data releases
Eur data does not have much impact due to Quantitative easing
Central bank speakers

In all fairness to get the most of the above you would need Ransquawk.
  • #543
  • May 3, 2018 11:07am May 3, 2018 11:07am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} They main things to focus on are Are: interest rate releaes NFP Geopolitical USD data releases Eur data does not have much impact due to Quantitative easing Central bank speakers In all fairness to get the most of the above you would need Ransquawk.
TYVM. I ask because I have an EA that does really well that myself and another person have been working on for a few months and it ONLY trades on EURUSD. We try to avoid trading the news releases that make EU move in one direction. We need the EU market to be ranging not trending, so we try to avoid the big mover events. TY Samson...as always! You're the man!!
  • #544
  • May 3, 2018 11:12am May 3, 2018 11:12am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} TYVM. I ask because I have an EA that does really well that myself and another person have been working on for a few months and it ONLY trades on EURUSD. We try to avoid trading the news releases that make EU move in one direction. We need the EU market to be ranging not trending, so we try to avoid the big mover events. TY Samson...as always! You're the man!!
Funny enough some ppl only trade eur/usd only for a living. its the most liquid pair in the world.

Check out this documentary (only 20 min long):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSKT6o3gpo0&t=10s
  • #545
  • May 3, 2018 11:29am May 3, 2018 11:29am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Funny enough some ppl only trade eur/usd only for a living. its the most liquid pair in the world. Check out this documentary (only 20 min long): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSKT6o3gpo0&t=10s
  • #546
  • May 3, 2018 11:45am May 3, 2018 11:45am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Funny enough some ppl only trade eur/usd only for a living. its the most liquid pair in the world. Check out this documentary (only 20 min long): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSKT6o3gpo0&t=10s
I have done it for 30 years starting with DM and later Euro. Why do you feel funny?
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #547
  • May 3, 2018 1:02pm May 3, 2018 1:02pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} I have done it for 30 years starting with DM and later Euro. Why do you feel funny?
Sorry what do you mean?
  • #548
  • May 3, 2018 4:10pm May 3, 2018 4:10pm
I've been following this thread since it was posted somehow I trade mainly on price action I want to trade in Fundamental analysis b'cos I was lil bit ashamed of myself making money out of nothing by just watching charts and I could teach a monkey to do the trade for me. I began analyzing market and paying attention to the central banks, I also began reading news over 10 hrs. a day It reduce my time to play video games. For now I trade on Price Action while preparing myself to trade Fundamentally I also began writing my Trading Journal to keep my Biases in check. For my friendly opinion samson's trading strategy seems more difficult for me because he only trade the news and close the his position. as of writing this I keep my bias on USD in a bullish side until August since the central banks are enjoying their weak currency and the ECB will end QE until September. All in all I would like to thank samson to come up with this thread. Wish me luck into my trading Journey.
  • #549
  • May 3, 2018 10:23pm May 3, 2018 10:23pm
Quoting neko1234
I've been following this thread since it was posted somehow I trade mainly on price action I want to trade in Fundamental analysis b'cos I was lil bit ashamed of myself making money out of nothing by just watching charts and I could teach a monkey to do the trade for me. I began analyzing market and paying attention to the central banks, I also began reading news over 10 hrs. a day It reduce my time to play video games. For now I trade on Price Action while preparing myself to trade Fundamentally I also began writing my Trading Journal to keep my...
Thanks for your feedback and update.

In terms of the way I trade, I do the following:

 

  1. Yes I do trade the news but that is because I pay ransquawk and hear the central minutes on releases hence why I profit. I also profit when central banks speak. I wonder have people not realised why FF highlight central bank/political speakers on their calendar? Its because you can profit from them I also receive all central bank info in one text and a morning opening news so my data collection is simplified.
  2. I also swing trade on the back of strong fundamentals (For example I am still short on GBP/USD & EUR/USD hwich have been running for a few days now)
  3. Trading is not meant to be easy by any means, but if you want to reach a superior level you have to invest. You have to invest financially and you have to be willing to sacrifice your time. Do you think I enjoy reading economics daily? "NO", but I enjoy placing the trade and seeing it going to profit based on hard work and dedication
  4. When trading fundamentals people fall into the trap of reading 10 hours a day when really it should be like 20-30 minutes (If not less) because you only need to focus on market moving news/data. For example if an article pops up that there is heavy buying taking place on copper, you simply find a good entry to go long on the AUD to a particular pivot point level. If an article pops up that US yields are up - you simply go long USD. Its that simple!! If the bank of England signal they are hiking rates you simply by GBP of the back of that news - Simple!!


I wish you the best on your trading journey, but you have to realise that trading itself is like a video game and you are competing against people who are trying to profit of you.

  • #550
  • Edited 3:14am May 4, 2018 1:35am | Edited 3:14am
This morning I have closed my cable trade and took 50% of the eur/usd position due to the dollar index being at a double top/ key level. I dont mind holding for a retrace, but we are talking potentially 200 pips which is not what I am happy to hold for.

So now I wait for NFP.

Update: I have now fully closed my eur/usd as I am committing part of this weeks profit to a GBP/JPY sell. The reason for the trade is that China talks are not going well with the US at present (Part of yesterdays risk off sentiment) and the iran matter is still lurking. My entry was not the best on this position but I believe the fundamental will see me through, also GBP could contribute downward pressure to the trade





Morgan stanley carried out the following trades at NY close:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20180504_133054.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180504-150528.png Size: 118 KB
  • #551
  • May 4, 2018 7:12am May 4, 2018 7:12am
Quoting Samson85
This morning I have closed my cable trade and took 50% of the eur/usd position due to the dollar index being at a double top/ key level. I dont mind holding for a retrace, but we are talking potentially 200 pips which is not what I am happy to hold for. So now I wait for NFP. Update: I have now fully closed my eur/usd as I am committing part of this weeks profit to a GBP/JPY sell. The reason for the trade is that China talks are not going well with the US at present (Part of yesterdays risk off sentiment) and the iran matter is still lurking. My...
Hello Samson, where do you find the Morgan Stanley signal?
I don't understand if you trade the news just for quickly entry or for medium term....
Thanks for sharing
  • #552
  • May 4, 2018 11:17pm May 4, 2018 11:17pm
Hey Samson,

How goes it? My trade of the month is/was GBPUSD. After breaking the 1.4100 level it has been on a great down move for the past 2 weeks. Currently 500+ PS. All other USD pairs in my portfolio are all in the 250-400 pip range. Been waiting for these breaks and they are paying off.

My concern for May is now that we have these breaks, are they going to continue after a retrace or reverse? We will have to see. Closed a few of the trades, secured a few JIC of weekend craziness. USDCHF I closed for sure because it is back to parity levels not seen since November 2017.

The rest of the open trades are secured and waiting to see if they break levels next week.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #553
  • May 4, 2018 11:38pm May 4, 2018 11:38pm
Quoting riclater211
Hey Samson, How goes it? My trade of the month is/was GBPUSD. After breaking the 1.4100 level it has been on a great down move for the past 2 weeks. Currently 500+ PS. All other USD pairs in my portfolio are all in the 250-400 pip range. Been waiting for these breaks and they are paying off. My concern for May is now that we have these breaks, are they going to continue after a retrace or reverse? We will have to see. Closed a few of the trades, secured a few JIC of weekend craziness. USDCHF I closed for sure because it is back to parity levels...

Hey Ric

The main thing to look out for next week will be the BOE meeting and that will shape the direction of the currency for the next month or few.

I think the sell off for pound will continue until Thursday. I Read a few articles saying 1.32/1.33 is what what the big banks are aiming for.

I'm in two shorts at the moment which is gbp/USD and gbp/jpy. Trade talks with usa and China are still sour as well as risk off Iran predicaments should hopefully continue downtrend pressure jpy.

I missed out on usd/chf but it wants to find the key level (the level from which chf crashed) although eur/chf found 1.20 already.

Eur/sek looks like it needs a tumble also, so I would look out for cpi also next week.

Rbnz meeting next week and this could also shape the direction of the currency for the next month although I would not be surprised if they cut rates.

Thursday I will be putting heavy positions on pound post BOE meeting. If the BOE are smart they will blame the bad numbers on the UK weather (heavy snow last month) and state they will still hike twice this year. Although I wouldn't be surpised if we did see a hike come Thursday.

Right now USD is a beast and it completely ignored the negative nfp on Friday and gained strength. It also overpowered the double top on the dxy via 1 day chart.
  • #554
  • May 4, 2018 11:44pm May 4, 2018 11:44pm
Quoting ales.m
{quote} Hello Samson, where do you find the Morgan Stanley signal? I don't understand if you trade the news just for quickly entry or for medium term.... Thanks for sharing

I use Ransquaw and forexlive.com for my main fundamental news flow. Bloomberg.com articles can actually give you very good trade ideas as well.

I hold posiions for both short term and long term.

Although swing trading does keep all the money on the table I must admit.

Day trades I take are based of sentiment. For example if yields are up for I will buy dollar. If bombings are taking place I will buy jpy due to risk off sentiment. For example in an oil plant shuts down in Nigeria suddenly I will buy oil as demand will increase.

I hope this helps.
  • #555
  • May 5, 2018 7:27am May 5, 2018 7:27am
Yes thank you, very helpfull...I thinhk I will try Ransquaw service in the nexts week, and check also new post here
  • #556
  • May 6, 2018 6:50am May 6, 2018 6:50am
Looks like busy week ahead.
  • #557
  • May 6, 2018 12:00pm May 6, 2018 12:00pm
This article is a must read as I predicted the same thing but it gives me more reassurance to go long Thursday just before interest rate release. They need to come out and blame the daata on the weather the BOE do.

Pound May Regain Lost Ground Should BOE Decide on ‘Hawkish Hold’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/pound-may-regain-lost-ground-should-boe-decide-on-hawkish-hold
  • #558
  • May 6, 2018 2:03pm May 6, 2018 2:03pm
Attached Image
Since Frank Sinatra sings in his own way, my chart sing... I did it, my way
  • #559
  • May 6, 2018 2:13pm May 6, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...
While aware of red flag events I otherwise pay zero attention to fundies and quite honestly I could care less. After "fundamental" events occur the chart reveals the big dog's future intentions. Those who understand are able to take advantage. Market structure if properly understood is the language of price. It is the translation of news and fundies into bars/candles, swings, etc. etc. Buyers and sellers are clearly shown on a technical chart if you know what to look for. I trade 99% technical and the 1% of fundies is just to stay out until their BS is CLEARLY shown on a technical chart. Failure to understand technical analysis doesn't mean it doesn't work for those who understand it.
  • #560
  • May 6, 2018 2:30pm May 6, 2018 2:30pm
Quoting Samson85
I have been taking alot of money of my broker this year and this is not the 1st time they have done something dodgy. In the above pic you can see where I set my take profit. Now please tell me if this hit my Take profit!! I am speechless right now!!! {image}
It's called spread especially with that pair. Not unusual.
1 trader viewing now