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  • #61
  • May 3, 2018 8:20am May 3, 2018 8:20am
Quoting renkotop
{quote} @moneyZilla: are you trading currency pairs, if yes which pairs? And what oher products are you trading. The guy from twitter, renko
Gold only for now.
But there is not any difference in between the pairs, really.
Many will disagree and they will be 100% wrong.

Master just one pair, that would mean you master all pairs.

The only difference in between pairs is their speed and current gear.
The way they move is 100% the same.

They use absolutely the same application on all pairs.
They can cross MXN with Gold, DAX, SEK and NOK,
and call it The Northern Rock Burrito Index, if they want to.
Would not make any difference. At all.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #62
  • Edited 9:42am May 3, 2018 8:40am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I did not get that one right. Sorry about that. Yeah, net pips are super hard to find. They apply multipliers, cause their edges, are with negative pips expectations. When positive pips makes the edge, it is completely different story. And you will find nothing on that in the books...
MZ, the center you are referring to is what I call SR Flip. These few pip zones are the most hot bed areas that represent opportunities to buy a little here and buy a little there, hold just a little bit longer and then sell in bulk. I know you this already. Don't rule out the middle!
My research continues as I know how to find these micro levels of tops and bottoms and the SR flips on M1 without even looking at charts and they absolutely work. Question is Why are these S, R and SR Flips formed. There is the higher level divine intervention from H1....the universal hour from the universal time zone around the world and I think it is also related to the weekly candle as a source for driving market cycles clock work. These two are the only two frames or cycles i find reliable. All other contributing factors are just minions working in syncrosity making it very hard to the naked eye to understand. They appear random but hey are NOT. They just happen very frequently all the time to what we call 'noise' hence my mention of "Focus on what Market HAS to do for it to survive"
Staying in my lane...
  • #63
  • May 3, 2018 8:49am May 3, 2018 8:49am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} suggestion for a different study on the crossing of MA: after the price crossef over its MA (or below); measure the distance in pips it took the price to cross back again with its MA. do that for each candle; not just the one that crossed. calculate the average pips. do the study on various MA periods till you find the best period with positive pips.
Hmm,either my code is buggy or your idea doesn't work. Look at the distributions (blue lines show average pip gain (calculated as || close - close (of candle crossing MA again) ||.
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  • #64
  • May 3, 2018 8:51am May 3, 2018 8:51am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Why "for each candle; not just the one that crossed"?
the idea is that the price will revert to its mean sooner or later. we need to calculate the average pips; by calculating each candle that was above the MA.

once you find the average; you can tune your strategy to enter on the first candle that crossed; or the second, or the third, etc.

statistics will tell you when is the best time to enter.

you will find that the average pips will increase as you select more candles after the crossing.

perhaps you can narrow down your statistics, by candle index; i.e.:

- calculate average pips of 1st candle after the crossing
- calculate average pips of 2nd candle after the crossing
- calculate average pips of 3rd candle after the crossing
- calculate average pips of 4th candle after the crossing
- ....

the universal rule of mean reversion; is to enter after the price has exhausted its move away from the mean. which is clearly NOT the first candle.
  • #65
  • May 3, 2018 8:53am May 3, 2018 8:53am
VEEFX, this is good stuff.

I have found they move it on blocks.
Little blocks within the bigger blocks.
It is almost a perfect equilibrium system.
Made by humans.
Amazing.

Their algo is uber smartly build.
Simply fantastic.

Still, nothing they can do about Tops and Bottoms.
They are really strong at The Center.
Their algo weakness is everything that is outside It.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #66
  • May 3, 2018 8:54am May 3, 2018 8:54am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Hmm,either my code is buggy or your idea doesn't work. Look at the distributions (blue lines show average pip gain (calculated as || close - close (of candle crossing MA again) ||. {image}
this is a good start. your distribution is correct.

because you calculated each candle; the average (assuming transaction cost is zero), will be zero.

now you need to select your trades; to increase your edge.

see my previous post
  • #67
  • May 3, 2018 8:55am May 3, 2018 8:55am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} the idea is that the price will revert to its mean sooner or later. we need to calculate the average pips; by calculating each candle that was above the MA. once you find the average; you can tune your strategy to enter on the first candle that crossed; or the second, or the third, etc. statistics will tell you when is the best time to enter. you will find that the average pips will increase as you select more candles after the crossing.
Well, that's obvious and completely different than what you wrote previously And I will agree that it could be done. The only question is: How to come up with the "right" threshold. I somehow doubt that the mean is really the right way. A mean means that this value will be only hit 50 % of the time ... (I tried something similar with open prize cross statistics.)
  • #68
  • May 3, 2018 9:06am May 3, 2018 9:06am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} the idea is that the price will revert to its mean sooner or later. we need to calculate the average pips; by calculating each candle that was above the MA. once you find the average; you can tune your strategy to enter on the first candle that crossed; or the second, or the third, etc.
How is this going to help you on a trending day?
The rate will never get back.
Maybe I do not understand something?
You want to enter before or around the turning zones?
Plenty of net pips by just following the price.
Just read my trading strategies book.
All is well explained in there.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #69
  • May 3, 2018 9:10am May 3, 2018 9:10am
Hahaha. You have to love it! No-one who trades well is going to reveal too much about what they do. I have lurked here for 10 years, said nothing, still saying nothing. So what are we left with, clues, tips, tricks, hints?

Peace.
  • #70
  • May 3, 2018 9:17am May 3, 2018 9:17am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Well, that's obvious and completely different than what you wrote previously And I will agree that it could be done. The only question is: How to come up with the "right" threshold. I somehow doubt that the mean is really the right way. A mean means that this value will be only hit 50 % of the time ... (I tried something similar with open prize cross statistics.)
the answer will be statistics.

once you have selected a pair, a TF and a moving average period; such as SMA(EURUSD, 1M, 30); calculate what is the best candle to enter; based on recent statistics of the forex pair you are trading.

this way your strategy will be self optimized based on the market behavior in recent times.

you need to scan for the best combination; you will surely find some instruments, with some TF, on some period; to be working well compared to others.

hint: avoid any timeframe higher than 15m
  • #71
  • May 3, 2018 9:19am May 3, 2018 9:19am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} How is this going to help you on a trending day? The rate will never get back. Maybe I do not understand something? You want to enter before or around the turning zones? Plenty of net pips by just following the price. Just read my trading strategies book. All is well explained in there.
MZ, you are genius; it's all in this eBook title: "Day-Trade"
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  • #72
  • May 3, 2018 9:57am May 3, 2018 9:57am
Quoting MoneyZilla
VEEFX, this is good stuff. I have found they move it on blocks. Little blocks within the bigger blocks. It is almost a perfect equilibrium system. Made by humans. Amazing. Their algo is uber smartly build. Simply fantastic. Still, nothing they can do about Tops and Bottoms. They are really strong at The Center. Their algo weakness is everything that is outside It.
Yep. I use 62 such "blocks" which results in a signal ALWAYS waiting for me to be picked up and placed on the production line. I got margin, I take the damn signal. If I am overexposed, I skip it. Working like a charm in a clock work as long as you find a way to avoid concentration of trades.Few are required but not too many. I cap at 4 per flip or top or bottom per pair per session per currency to manage my time based exposure. I will also say this...look into session open times starting with aukland, Sydney, Tokyo, China, Hong Kong, Helsinki, Dubai, Moscow, Jakarta etc...they all work clock work for their respective currencies and as we know currencies are all intertwined with the mighty Dollar so if you follow these cycles (if you had unlimited funds), you cannot lose as long as you know how to play the volatility (not by measuring but know it is just around the corner!). I measure nothing. I calculate nothing. I see nothing. I look nothing. I just know what market HAS to do all the time and position my portfolio to work for me... Some work against me and some work forvme...again, in a clock work think big, act small, spread across and grow the account in bigger chunks and lose in smaller chunks. It's all part of the package deal that market offers all day every day. The only problem I face is when there is a important news release in the next 24 hours and price across all zones are in "wait and see" mode. That is when I get in trouble and face drawdown but now, my drawdown manager is very advanced to trap all such conditions and scenarios to account for. I will end by saying this...the art of position management lies in trackig Peak Equity. Not in the standard accounting of account balance or equity.
Staying in my lane...
  • #73
  • May 3, 2018 10:06am May 3, 2018 10:06am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} I use Close, High, Low and Median prices. But it is not as simple as you have might imagine it. Any TF from M1 to D1. When trading M5 as H4, I use 48 (MA1 on H4) to 2880 (MA10 on D1). Anything in between. MA higher than 10-20 is a total waste for my style. Too far from target with huge lags. {quote} I do not think you would, as I share generic details only. {quote} Definitely not. Follow the price is simple enough for me. Trying to avoid the Center. But not always. Sometimes I do align with The Center, as The Center is The Right Timing......
@MoneyZilla: I do not understand this:
"When trading M5 as H4,
I use 48 (MA1 on H4) to 2880 (MA10 on D1)."

So question: If you are Trading Gold on M5, what it your MA?
Thanks for Reply,
renko
  • #74
  • May 3, 2018 10:38am May 3, 2018 10:38am
Quoting renkotop
{quote} @MoneyZilla: I do not understand this: "When trading M5 as H4, I use 48 (MA1 on H4) to 2880 (MA10 on D1)." So question: If you are Trading Gold on M5, what it your MA? Thanks for Reply, renko
M5 will be MA48 or higher.
H4 always overrides M5.
M5 MA48 is just a little more narrow and sharper...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #75
  • May 3, 2018 10:48am May 3, 2018 10:48am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} M5 will be MA48 or higher. H4 always overrides M5. M5 MA48 is just a little more narrow and sharper...
@MoneyZilla: would you please post Picture here (you know, I' m stupid.......)
renko
  • #76
  • May 3, 2018 1:47pm May 3, 2018 1:47pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Hmm,either my code is buggy or your idea doesn't work. Look at the distributions (blue lines show average pip gain (calculated as || close - close (of candle crossing MA again) ||. {image}

The balance is beautiful
  • #77
  • May 3, 2018 2:43pm May 3, 2018 2:43pm
Am I missing something? Everyone is saying the PDF files are blank? But it isn't? Just finished reading Best Forex Trading Strategies and How to Effectively Day-Trade the FX Markets for a Living. Great reads.
  • #78
  • Edited May 4, 2018 1:45am May 3, 2018 2:43pm | Edited May 4, 2018 1:45am
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} The balance is beautiful
Yes, it's quite shocking ... balance everywhere although the left side has a bigger spread. On the other hand: We just look at residuals of a statistical model (the mean). And residuals should have a mean of 0 if the model fits the data well ...
  • #79
  • Edited 8:12am May 4, 2018 7:43am | Edited 8:12am
Hello MoneyZilla,

How do you trade that?:

- in range
- in trend



Look that beauty:

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E-book : trading Channel
IQ: 136
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #80
  • May 4, 2018 8:17am May 4, 2018 8:17am
Quoting limprobable
Hello MoneyZilla, How do you trade that?: - in range - in trend Look that beauty: {image} E-book : trading Channel IQ: 136
That is EASY!
I would first sell it at 5390...
And then?
Buy it at 5540, of course.
That is called Channel Trading.
IQ75.

Thanks for the visual example.

Will write a book on this one!
I promise!
There seems to be a demand for channel trading ebooks.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
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