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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #481
  • Apr 30, 2018 11:47pm Apr 30, 2018 11:47pm
Quoting jben10000
{quote} so what is this (Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%) 100%?
Yes!!!
  • #482
  • Apr 30, 2018 11:53pm Apr 30, 2018 11:53pm
No..i do not agree with this...

it just a piece of information

both are under the information category

u cant separate between fundamental and technical..

u just dont know what is market all about when u start to think both...
  • #483
  • May 1, 2018 12:02am May 1, 2018 12:02am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Yes!!!
Ok. Show your 100% winning result. You cant
  • #484
  • May 1, 2018 12:10am May 1, 2018 12:10am
Misleading Thread
  • #485
  • May 1, 2018 12:39am May 1, 2018 12:39am
Quoting jben10000
{quote} Ok. Show your 100% winning result. You cant
If you look on this thread you will see all the trades posted from start to finish with the entry.

The same applies to other fundamental traders who show trades from start to finish on here. Also go and look at Fader123 who has a similar style and you'll see results. Forexin101 also shows his trades on this thread.

Go through the pages and you'll see winning trades and a few losses.

There are numerous trades which were posted here last week and the week before all showing point of entry and close.

Thank you!!
  • #486
  • May 1, 2018 12:57am May 1, 2018 12:57am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} If you look on this thread you will see all the trades posted from start to finish with the entry. The same applies to other fundamental traders who show trades from start to finish on here. Also go and look at Fader123 who has a similar style and you'll see results. Forexin101 also shows his trades on this thread. Go through the pages and you'll see winning trades and a few losses. There are numerous trades which were posted here last week and the week before all showing point of entry and close. Thank you!!
just remove this person from the thread. You don't need this kind of negativity around here. Everyone here will be better off.
  • #487
  • May 1, 2018 1:17am May 1, 2018 1:17am
Hi Samson85,

I agree with bojack34.

Some people cant even read and want to be a trader. This jben guy states "where is your 100% winning result" . what a joke. Just do it like Davit in the pivot trading thread and remove people consequently. It does not matter how many people are ultimately reading and writing on this thread..quality of posts is what counts.
  • #488
  • May 1, 2018 1:29am May 1, 2018 1:29am
Quoting Jester_73
Hi Samson85, I agree with bojack34. Some people cant even read and want to be a trader. This jben guy states "where is your 100% winning result" . what a joke. Just do it like Davit in the pivot trading thread and remove people consequently. It does not matter how many people are ultimately reading and writing on this thread..quality of posts is what counts.
Ok will do

Done!!!
  • #489
  • May 1, 2018 1:33am May 1, 2018 1:33am
Fundamental analysis beats technical analysis. However, I have not seen the fundamental traders. The Foundation is difficult to predict. How do you know what powerful people will say on any important issue ?
  • #490
  • Edited 1:46am May 1, 2018 1:34am | Edited 1:46am
So today I have gone short EUR/USD. This is based on dollar pressure and the market quite uncertain about how the ECB is going to operate. It seems alot of funds are also releasing their gains as the EUR was quite hyper extended via the 1 day chart.

It's an interesting one eur/USD. Barclays are targeting 1.1739 for eur/USD to reach. <<< I mentioned this yesterday but I will drill the analyst at ransquawk to see if this is really achievable.

I am still in the cable short hoping PMI will come out bad due to last months weather. I am still long INR/USD. I got stopped out yesterday on USD/CAD Oil rally gave it some support, but I closed usd/jpy on minor profits.

I asked the analysts: Barclays are targeting 1.1739 do the current and future fundamentals support this? >>> That's very hard if not impossible to say, as regardless of Eur impulses you have to consider Usd-specific factors of course, but certainly the pair looks offered and could retreat further if stops are breached through 1.2055-50 area, and then again around 1.2030..
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  • #491
  • May 1, 2018 1:55am May 1, 2018 1:55am
I just discovered this page on the website looks a good thing to subscribe to as it delivers news - https://www.forexfactory.com/ff.news
  • #492
  • May 1, 2018 3:16am May 1, 2018 3:16am
Nice call on EU Samson. I am also short
  • #493
  • May 1, 2018 4:09am May 1, 2018 4:09am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I decided to take a short on cable as the uptrend got rejected on the 23.6% fibanachi level (Yes I do technicals). The target is currently set for the s1 pivot but I may let it run until the fed meeting. Barclays did say they expected weak dollar selling so that is why I was cautious to take any trades today, but as proved again even the big banks can be wrong. Dollar sentiment still seems to be strong. I also have long positions in USD/CAD & USD/JPY which I am watching very carefully. {image}

100 points hit on cable

Target now 136 but may take profit at s3

I also went short gbp/aud.

I also shorted before the release gbp/nzd (Small risk good reward).

The key fundamental was bad weather from UK last month which made PMI bad
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  • #494
  • Edited 4:22am May 1, 2018 4:10am | Edited 4:22am
You can't just use "the fundamental view". That would mean that every Economist is also a good Trader. That's not the case. Here some present studies:

 

  1. Currencies have the tendency to develop strong trends, stronger than stocks in my opinion because currencies reflect the performance ofcountries. (Jean-Charles Gand, Soci´et´eG´en´erale Gestion, in Clements, 2010 p. 84)

  1. It has been our longstanding experience that nothing trends as well or as clearly as a major currency market—not equity market indices, not commodity markets and not even long-term Treasuries. (Walter Zimmermann, United-ICAP, in Clements, 2010 p. 197

Just for clarity: They wrote about "Trends" and not some outspaced technical strategies which are just silly.

The funny Thing is that it is not so easy to differ between fundamental and technical, but this is another topic. I admit that a lot of People who are using the technical view don't understand what they do. They don't understand the assumptions, which have to be made.

They don't understand the difference between correlation and causality.
--> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

My recommendations:

 

  1. The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates by Richard K. Lyons
  2. The Economics of Exchange Rates by Lucio Sarno, Mark P. Taylor, Jeffery A. Frankel


For my own study I would like to know who gonna buy/read these books.

ARES!
  • #495
  • May 1, 2018 4:32am May 1, 2018 4:32am
It is absolutely amazing. The thread is called "Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%" ...why is it that people assume that entries are solely based on fundamentals? Where does it say that? Nowhere!

What it ultimately means is that an effing 200 day moving average or a support resistance zone means jackshit when the fed decides to raise interest rates. They dont do this based on a bloody moving average, they do this based on economic indicators they track themselves. Just because the thread is called like that does not mean however that people do not use technical tools to fine tune their entries. If one understands fundamentals and can interpret news correctly then one can identify market sentiment and direction which gives one the confidence in taking and/or holding on to an existing trade. Because this is reality not some fuc%&^ing stochastics or MA cross.

Statistics to me are useless because this represents history. One does not fight historic wars, one fights actual wars. The market changes constantly and by tracking statistics one is always behind the curve. Say you have identified that a EU makes usually 20 pips pullbacks ...now trump tweets that he is fed up of China trade and all of a sudden your average daily range is twice as big.. good luck with entries and stops. How long do you want to try this out until your account is dead?

Anyway I was once a trade based on technicals and since I have broadend my view my results have drastically improved.
  • #496
  • May 1, 2018 4:36am May 1, 2018 4:36am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} 100 points hit on cable Target now 136 but may take profit at s3 I also went short gbp/aud. I also shorted before the release gbp/nzd (Small risk good reward). The key fundamental was bad weather from UK last month which made PMI bad {image} {image} {image}

All pound positions closed
  • #497
  • May 1, 2018 5:39am May 1, 2018 5:39am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} All pound positions closed

I closed out these positions for profit, there was an error on my side. When trading exotic pairs like gbp/aud or gbp/nzd on risk events they move quite rapidly. Now although I closed the total positions in profit I should have been aware that PMI & retail sales always retraces (traders never hold these gains). The only reason it has not retraced on GBP/USD is because of the strong dollar. If you look at the other GBP pairs since pmi you will see stronger retracements.

I also did not use the fibanachi as well, as all i saw was ££££ signs. When trading risk events it is important to know whether we will get a bounce of certain levels to confirm the continuous trend because not every trade moves in a straight line

Profitable morning , but rookie mistakes which led to leaving money on the table PMI was never going to have impact like gdp or cpi. Greed and winning streaks can cloud ones judgement.

I am currently only short EUR/USD which is 40 pips in profit.

Dollar index is also above 92
  • #498
  • May 1, 2018 6:09am May 1, 2018 6:09am
Quoting Jester_73
It is absolutely amazing. The thread is called "Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%" ...why is it that people assume that entries are solely based on fundamentals? Where does it say that? Nowhere! What it ultimately means is that an effing 200 day moving average or a support resistance zone means jackshit when the fed decides to raise interest rates. They dont do this based on a bloody moving average, they do this based on economic indicators they track themselves. Just because the thread is called like that does not mean however...
Looooooool I just read this.

Bravo Lmao

100% right.

I use to use stochastic when I 1st started, complete waste of time. So misleading.

I have a moving average but I dont let it guide me. I use it because the big boys use it but it doesnt mean anything when the central bank acts.
  • #499
  • May 1, 2018 8:52am May 1, 2018 8:52am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I closed out these positions for profit, there was an error on my side. When trading exotic pairs like gbp/aud or gbp/nzd on risk events they move quite rapidly. Now although I closed the total positions in profit I should have been aware that PMI & retail sales always retraces (traders never hold these gains). The only reason it has not retraced on GBP/USD is because of the strong dollar. If you look at the other GBP pairs since pmi you will see stronger retracements. I also did not use the fibanachi as well, as all i saw was ££££ ...
Made money but flopped. Took profits too early!!!!!
  • #500
  • May 1, 2018 9:45am May 1, 2018 9:45am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I agree with you on that approach as the same style fundamentally to stocks is similar to currencies. I think with IG when trading stocks you get to see the companies balance sheet etc which gives you a good idea of whether it has long term momentum shorting or going long but of course ground breaking news like a merger for example could also shape the direction.
Exactly, Samson85.

Although personally I rarely delve that deep into a company. I’m interested in whether they’re turning a profit and whether they have earnings growth.

Nothing more, really.
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