Pivot Trading

I have been made aware that Barclays anticipate weak dollar selling for month end flows.

In relation to CAD I am struggling to see any fundamental that could make it bullish. Oil gains will purely just be sentiment for CAD with the major factors being good CPI & a Nafta deal that would make it bullish.

I don't think anyone is expecting fireworks from the FED minutes this week, but you never know in this game

From last week's 3.03 to now. Maybe it can be the indicator of this week's correction. (Just guessing.)

I am bullish on the CAD vs USD not so against AUD NZD or Yen so UC could drop by just weakness of USD and not necessarily strength of the CAD

AJ has been finding a good support around this area....last week's pos still active

Funny enough CAD has a bid vs other currencies just not USD. USD is still running riot until fed minutes.

AC and NC both approaching S61, which is a strong area!! Will wait to see PA, if we get a rejection... GL

Little late on this. Got home late Sun. after a Stag weekend…

Should be an exciting week, and with that in mind: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!


Tuesday
CHF/FRENCH/GER/ITALIAN BANK HOLIDAY

AUD - RBA Rate Statement - Rates widely expected to stay unchanged. Any change in rhetoric that supports an earlier timing on the first rate hike would help the AUD on all crosses especially the EUR and USD…

GBP - Manufacturing PMI - Majority of previous prints have been very close to forecasted value. If this trend continues will most likely have a muted effect/slightly stall USD strength on GBP/USD.

USD - ISM Manu. PMI - Majority of prints have been green but last one was red. May slightly stall USD on all pairs if it prints red again.

CAD - GDP m/m - If it prints green, may push USD/CAD lower from its current base before Wed's FOMC. Although there may be a possibility of little movement due to a wait and see by the market for Wed's news.

NZD - Employment Change/Unemployment Rate - If continued trend of mostly green prints, look for this to provide a base for NZD strength vs USD. Watchful on all other NZD crosses.


Wednesday
JPY BANK HOLIDAY

USD + CAD - Crude Oil Inventories

USD - FOMC/Federal Funds Rate - MAJOR EVENT OF THE WEEK. Most USD pairs are overstretched demonstrating that the market has already priced in a rate hike. Will watch for opportunities to short USD even if rate is increased.

GBP - Construction PMI - last few prints have been mixed. If this prints green, may stall price and provide a good opportunity to open some positions in advance of USD FOMC/RATE.

AUD - Trade Balance/Building Approvals - possibility of this printing green. May provide an opportunity to build on any bullish tones/themes possibly presented in Tue's Rate Statement.


Thursday
JPY BANK HOLIDAY

GBP - Services PMI - Looking for this to print green, for continued momentum north on GBPUSD.

CAD - Trade Balance - Looking for this to print green, for continued momentum for CAD.

USD - ISM Non Manu. PMI - Last few prints have been green, if trend continues this may slow/stall some USD pairs slightly. May even provide a small retracement to enter more USD shorts.

AUD - RBA Monetary Policy - looking for continued support of the AUD from any (even minor) bullish statements.


Friday
USD - Non Farm Payroll/Avg Hourly Earnings/Unemployment Rate - last prints for Non-Farm and Unemployment have been red, with Avg Hourly Earnings meeting forecast. If this is the continued case, may provide one last move downwards for USD before week end. May close out of some positions (half) before this is release as positive green prints are possible and may accelerate end of week profit taking for any traders short on USD.


Overall view is USD weakness (may be temporary this/next week) and will be looking for great opportunities to short the dollar and then hammer them if confirmed by PA on WEDNESDAY. Will be watching CAD/GPB/AUD/NZD releases to see if prints support them for the other side of my USD weakness outlook. NZDJPY may be a good opportunity especially with 2 JPY Bank Holidays/quiet JPY news schedule, and major news for NZD

Don't want to be greedy on EURCAD trade which I started on Thursday (26 April 2018) Post #17,902

Closed with +1666.80 points

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Best regards

An excellent trade!

Long XAUUSD
first live experience with little conviction...
S61 1h candle holder

live trade, not as nice as Mr. Aussie lol. but a start.

You might be too early (H4 red TDI arrow) ... but hey, anything can happen.

Crude oil pinbar @ R61.



Entered long AUDCAD @ S78

yes true, but the ADR is red at like 142.

Ok, I missed that detail.

UC - closed +800pips

I think you closed waaaaay too early.

Me too but I am off on holiday Tomo so just close all my positions and then I can have a nice two weeks off.

Plus we are hitting some support and don’t have time to manage when away!

Have a great time trading everyone

Oil jumps on Israel comments that Iran has nuclear capacity.

Paying some attention to EA, maybe its starting to range ..