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Pivot Trading

  • #17,901
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:33pm Apr 28, 2018 10:33pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} What? Not such thing in US Here trading is choked up by regulations (thanks to liberals who want to protect public lol) Can't hedge,must close earlier trade 1st so you can't get in out out while having DD on same pair. I am very jealous of all opportunities that none US trading firms offer. Sure they are island trading firms but most are suspect usually turn out scams people not being able to take their money out.Legit ones don't take US costumers because again BS regulations. Anyway that's real nice not paying swap.
Hi Davit, I was wondering if you still feel this way? I am also in US, but I currently use FX Choice. Maybe I should consider switching to Oanda. If answering this question will jeopardize your thread going commercial or you getting in trouble with FF then please accept my apologies and just ignore this post. Txs Davit! Btw....im up to post 9081 (2 weeks in).....I feel lucky to have found this thread....tyvm!
  • #17,902
  • Apr 29, 2018 3:29am Apr 29, 2018 3:29am
Quoting Davit
My Calendar events last week of April and 1st week of May My canvas mode of operation for this week is looking for corrections on USD. Newtons law applies for every action there is reaction.Reaction is often hard to time but after whole week of USD beating on its peers I think step off the gas is more likely then not.Taking profit end of the month factor as well. Feds rate or not I believe USD is priced in. Opportunities for long NU AU CAD are on my list.PA is always king but this is the tone of my canvas for this week and I could be wrong and if...

Hello Davit,

Let me 1st commend you for this thread as it is a very good read.

I trade with 'Extended pivot points' as I am mainly a fundamental trader. 80% fundamental and 20% technical.

I trade volatile events weekly and pivot points are excellent for knowing where the price will stop.

For my manual trades I use fibanachi to help compliment the pivot points for market direction.

I really like how you use the calendar as part of your trading plan as so many traders lose money by not involving the calendar in their trading plans not knowing what is moving the markets. I post my trades on FF everyday and explain the reason for the trade. It is clear to see that I close my trades at pivot point levels ideally.

Experienced/Good traders will know that you can predict what way a speaker on the calendar is going to drive the market due to the overall fundamental. Predicting economic data is a bit more complicated, but you can tell when the numbers are unrealistic.
  • #17,903
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:08am Apr 29, 2018 7:08am
News Calendar and trade Plan (30 April - 05 May)

Monday - Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday - Saturday
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Best regards
  • #17,904
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:21am Apr 29, 2018 7:21am
The deal would be worth £10bn and a further announcement is expected on Monday morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43933517
not euphoria follower
  • #17,905
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:24am Apr 29, 2018 7:24am
Quoting Davit
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same? Thank you
I always review news and calendar events prior to each trading session. Over the weekend make note of upcoming major news and refer to it throughout the trading week. It helps me feel the heart beat of the market. The beauty of pivots and Davits instructions that are spelled out on the first page and throughout this whole forum is that if followed, it works. With it even if the market goes against against me because of news, as long as it is within the pivots and my positions are sized right so that I can handle the draw down, the probability of the trade working out is in my favor most of the time.
  • #17,906
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:48am Apr 29, 2018 7:48am
Quoting MrAussieFX
News Calendar and trade Plan (30 April - 05 May) Monday - Tuesday {image} Wednesday {image} Thursday {image} Friday - Saturday {image} Best regards
Excellent work! Nice organized and most important its yours!
Keep it up
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,907
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:51am Apr 29, 2018 7:51am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Hi Davit, I was wondering if you still feel this way? I am also in US, but I currently use FX Choice. Maybe I should consider switching to Oanda. If answering this question will jeopardize your thread going commercial or you getting in trouble with FF then please accept my apologies and just ignore this post. Txs Davit! Btw....im up to post 9081 (2 weeks in).....I feel lucky to have found this thread....tyvm!
Oanda will be moving to GMT+2 May 15th which is Europe.I don't know how that may effect US clients.All my funds are with them so naturally I am unease.
Stay where you are IMO
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,908
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:54am Apr 29, 2018 7:54am
Quoting iqyu5an
The deal would be worth £10bn and a further announcement is expected on Monday morning. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43933517
Thank you for update and we'll see when market opens if there is juice for GBP from this.Personally I am inclined to believe no effect since its a merger and not an acquisition.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,909
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:55am Apr 29, 2018 7:55am
Quoting MrAussieFX
News Calendar and trade Plan (30 April - 05 May) Monday - Tuesday {image} Wednesday {image} Thursday {image} Friday - Saturday {image} Best regards
Excellent work!
Thanks a lot.
  • #17,910
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:58am Apr 29, 2018 7:58am
Quoting MrAussieFX
Wednesday (25 April 2018) I was already in the EURAUD trade so there was no point of me being stressed about putting my money into 2 or more trades when I can actively add to my current trade if the probabilities become more favorable. Thursday (26 April 2018) Closed my EURAUD trade. Entered short on EURCAD. Which I believed had a more potential to drop from the pivot point. Still holding this EURCAD trade. {image} So the results for the week 17, 2018 {image} Summary: The Calendar preparation assisted me in filtering which trades not to take even...
You are doing great! Almost 9% gain in 1 weekKeep it up!
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,911
  • Apr 29, 2018 8:27am Apr 29, 2018 8:27am
Quoting Davit
{quote} So in 1min let me make it easier for you permanently! Fking freeloader! removed {image}
Hi Davit does existing an Expert Advisor for your strategy???
  • #17,912
  • Apr 29, 2018 8:37am Apr 29, 2018 8:37am
Quoting MrAussieFX
This is my 1st share here and I cannot thankyou Davit enough for giving people an opportunity to turn over a new leaf in their trading journey. AU H4 Sell {image} Best regards
1st post 2years ego.You came a long way and it shows by your results!Persistence and effort pays off.
Quoting Davit
{quote} awesome trade and welcome Love having you here! You will build your account to higher level without stress or worry
and you have done so
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,913
  • Apr 29, 2018 9:11am Apr 29, 2018 9:11am
Next week outlook

Australia economy seems to be stalling a bit, GDP growth pointing down with decreasing numbers since July 2017, right now quarterly GDP growth is at .4%.

"The Australian economy advanced 0.4 percent in the December quarter of 2017, less than market consensus of a 0.6 percent expansion and after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter. It was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the September quarter 2016, as positive contributions mainly came from final consumption expenditure while non-dwelling construction and net trade had a downward effect. Through the year to the fourth quarter, the economy grew by 2.4 percent, slower than an upwardly revised 2.9 percent expansion in the prior quarter and slightly below expectations of a 2.5 percent growth."

Inflation numbers also stalling, we got CPI data last week being slightly red with expected numbers of .5% and actual .4%

From RBA: "The Governor and the Treasurer have agreed that the appropriate target for monetary policy in Australia is to achieve an inflation rate of 2–3 per cent, on average, over time. This is a rate of inflation sufficiently low that it does not materially distort economic decisions in the community. Seeking to achieve this rate, on average, provides discipline for monetary policy decision-making, and serves as an anchor for private-sector inflation expectations. "

Right now annual inflation is 1.9%.

Trade balance is also going down from previous month which affect quite a bit Australia's GDP.

If we see good numbers on Wednesday's Australia Trade Balance then it is likely that RBA monetary policy statement on Thursday will be a little more hawkish or with a better outlook.

------------------------------------------------------------

I am bullish on the CAD, oil prices are in a nice uptrend and their economy is doing quite well. Inflation is high at 2.3%, GDP is also high at 2.9%. The only thing that it's very red is their trade balance, so if we get green numbers this week it will become a very good candidate for bullish momentum.

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United States' economic indicators are all slightly over target. The thing is that everyone is bullish on the USD so we don't know how much has already been priced in. USD is overbought though, I don't know we will have to see as the week progresses. It will be a very volatile week, a lot of important news. Pivots will give us hints.
  • #17,914
  • Apr 29, 2018 10:14am Apr 29, 2018 10:14am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Oanda will be moving to GMT+2 May 15th which is Europe.I don't know how that may effect US clients.All my funds are with them so naturally I am unease. Stay where you are IMO
TY Davit.
  • #17,915
  • Apr 29, 2018 7:50pm Apr 29, 2018 7:50pm
my bad month
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  • #17,916
  • Apr 29, 2018 9:40pm Apr 29, 2018 9:40pm
Watching EC for opportunity to sell. Missed first entries last week.
  • #17,917
  • Apr 29, 2018 10:11pm Apr 29, 2018 10:11pm
Quoting denisius
Watching EC for opportunity to sell. Missed first entries last week.
Nothing to watch here.Plenty of room north and PA very bullish.If anything this is forced trade.Nothing here to trade yet
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,918
  • Apr 29, 2018 10:22pm Apr 29, 2018 10:22pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Oanda will be moving to GMT+2 May 15th which is Europe.I don't know how that may effect US clients.All my funds are with them so naturally I am unease. Stay where you are IMO
hi Davit I actually prefer GMT+2 (or +3 during European Summer DST): Forex brokers whose servers are based off GMT+2 (or +3) server time usually tend to offer 5 candlesticks during a week, representing 5 days of trading sessions in the week. Typically, GMT+2(+3) brokers follow the GMT timings of 5PM EST as the open and close of a new day’s trading session. I do trade from US and I have my account with Oanda on GMT+2 server (V20) Green pips
  • #17,919
  • Edited 11:45pm Apr 29, 2018 11:08pm | Edited 11:45pm
Quoting Nenuser
Next week outlook Australia economy seems to be stalling a bit, GDP growth pointing down with decreasing numbers since July 2017, right now quarterly GDP growth is at .4%. "The Australian economy advanced 0.4 percent in the December quarter of 2017, less than market consensus of a 0.6 percent expansion and after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter. It was the weakest growth rate since a contraction in the September quarter 2016, as positive contributions mainly came from final consumption expenditure while non-dwelling...

Not sure why you would be bullish on CAD considering NAFTA is still the massive issue and yes inflation looks high, but it missed the markets expectations and Poloz said he was looking for more. If we did see a bit of downside it would be due to profit taking.

I would not say that the USD is overbought. The market has been reacting to yields touching 3% and there is even talk of it being as high as 3.5% to 4% by year end. I wouldn't say the dollar is overbought in comparison to any currency right now as the FED are in a hiking cycle. Also take into account the FED is not fully data dependant hence why the market does not react to every economic data release we get via the calendar. For example look at the USD GDP release Friday just gone, there was little reaction.


  • #17,920
  • Apr 29, 2018 11:56pm Apr 29, 2018 11:56pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Not sure why you would be bullish on CAD considering NAFTA is still the massive issue and yes inflation looks high, but it missed the markets expectations and Poloz said he was looking for more. If we did see a bit of downside it would be due to profit taking. I would not say that the USD is overbought. The market has been reacting to yields touching 3% and there is even talk of it being as high as 3.5% to 4% by year end. I wouldn't say the dollar is overbought in comparison to any currency right now as the FED are in a hiking cycle. Also...
Hi Samson
Reaction may come after May 2nd or right before rate decision.IMO USD sell off onward for the rest of the month most likely.
In basic terms USD is priced in cross the board already. UJ is good example stopped going north and that's true all majors
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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