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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #441
  • Apr 27, 2018 5:11am Apr 27, 2018 5:11am
Quoting Samson85
Today we had the release of GDP for the pound which missed expectation by 0.2 for both which is quite a big deviation. We have had misses on employment and cpi also as well as retail sales this far this month. I traded the release live and currently over 35 pips in profit If GDP for usd is positive today with a big deviation it could move the market although the Fomc are not data dependent. I also took very tiny positions on usd/cad usd/jpy and usd/chf which I closed all in profit via early morning usd buying (Friday boredom, 0.1% risk trades...

Lol literally the trade just hit profit 1 min after posting the last message
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  • #442
  • Apr 27, 2018 6:18am Apr 27, 2018 6:18am
Mr Samson85, Thank you for the trade ideas and software that you use in trading fundamental. I just want to ask a question about the trading chart you use like in the above and what is your prefer broker and account? Ecn broker, ecn broker but with stadard account? I really like your chart in mobile with pivot point. Thanks

Ben
  • #443
  • Apr 27, 2018 10:25pm Apr 27, 2018 10:25pm
Quoting rayz163001
Mr Samson85, Thank you for the trade ideas and software that you use in trading fundamental. I just want to ask a question about the trading chart you use like in the above and what is your prefer broker and account? Ecn broker, ecn broker but with stadard account? I really like your chart in mobile with pivot point. Thanks Ben
Hi Ben,

The broker I use is CMC, but I could move to SVSFX soon. I use cmc because they have a very good execution as well as a good calendar.

The chart times I use are 1DAY 1HOUR 15MIN (15MIN for point of entry).
  • #444
  • Apr 27, 2018 11:43pm Apr 27, 2018 11:43pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Hi Ben, The broker I use is CMC, but I could move to SVSFX soon. I use cmc because they have a very good execution as well as a good calendar. The chart times I use are 1DAY 1HOUR 15MIN (15MIN for point of entry).
Thank you on the reply. Thanks and Godbless
  • #445
  • Apr 28, 2018 8:48am Apr 28, 2018 8:48am
I agree fundamentals more important than technicals ...

atr, rsi, mas, cci, stoch, are all based on price, and the fundamental sentiment leads price action
  • #446
  • Apr 29, 2018 4:51am Apr 29, 2018 4:51am
Hi Samson85,

Thank you for the nice thread, I have been looking a way to break into the fundamental trading field.

I have a question regarding to the trade entry and exit. For entry, do you enter a trade before the news release or right at the moment of release? And for exit, when do you exit a trade? Is it 5 minutes after the news release or some more time later?

Your answer will be very appreciated. Thanks again.

Neo
  • #447
  • Apr 29, 2018 5:13am Apr 29, 2018 5:13am
Quoting neothegreat
Hi Samson85, Thank you for the nice thread, I have been looking a way to break into the fundamental trading field. I have a question regarding to the trade entry and exit. For entry, do you enter a trade before the news release or right at the moment of release? And for exit, when do you exit a trade? Is it 5 minutes after the news release or some more time later? Your answer will be very appreciated. Thanks again. Neo

Hi,

These videos explain it perfectly how it can be done in terms of exit and entry.

Please give me feedback and I'll send you similar vids.

Thanks

https://youtu.be/80eJbVhxWlI

https://youtu.be/SsQBjHK-SH4
  • #448
  • Apr 30, 2018 1:06am Apr 30, 2018 1:06am
Happy Monday,

I am not sure If I will place a trade today although there does seem to be an opportunity on EUR/JPY given the risk on sentiment (Korea settling disputes over weekend) and stocks somewhat rebounding.

The swing trade below I took was based on an article (Bloomberg) saying that India's currency was due a rebound. When I looked at the chart I could see that the current trend was coming of a rebound. Since taking this swing trade I am currently over a 100 pips up. The profit target is some what ambitious, but I will now look place the stoploss close to break even.

Retail traders really need to understand the power of key articles on bloomberg as they provide easy trading opportunities. You will see from a previous trade on the thread that I placed a trade due to heavy option bets that the pound would see 1.40 as the chance of a rate hike diminished (made over 100 pips shorting GBP/USD).
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  • #449
  • Apr 30, 2018 1:26am Apr 30, 2018 1:26am
Heres my analysis for todays session
___________________________
SELL NZD: Based on poor data coming out in the Asian markets, however, good employment data is expected tomorrow so I will be keeping an eye out for a reversal

BUY USD: It is no surprise that a rate hike is making the USD stronger, also with antidollar currencies also in the decline (JPY, Gold) this further cements its strength

BUY CAD: Geopolitical reasons behind Iran nuclear deal breakdown will have oil prices soaring, also CAD GDP is expected to show growth

SELL: NZDUSD and NZDUSD

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To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #450
  • Apr 30, 2018 2:31am Apr 30, 2018 2:31am
Quoting Samson85
Happy Monday, I am not sure If I will place a trade today although there does seem to be an opportunity on EUR/JPY given the risk on sentiment (Korea settling disputes over weekend) and stocks somewhat rebounding. The swing trade below I took was based on an article (Bloomberg) saying that India's currency was due a rebound. When I looked at the chart I could see that the current trend was coming of a rebound. Since taking this swing trade I am currently over a 100 pips up. The profit target is some what ambitious, but I will now look place the...
I decided to take a short on cable as the uptrend got rejected on the 23.6% fibanachi level (Yes I do technicals). The target is currently set for the s1 pivot but I may let it run until the fed meeting. Barclays did say they expected weak dollar selling so that is why I was cautious to take any trades today, but as proved again even the big banks can be wrong.

Dollar sentiment still seems to be strong.

I also have long positions in USD/CAD & USD/JPY which I am watching very carefully.
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  • #451
  • Apr 30, 2018 2:39am Apr 30, 2018 2:39am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Barclays did say they expected weak dollar selling
Was there a particular reason why?

Other news I have heard from the big banks is Goldman this morning said they expect the T-10 bond yields to go up to 3.5% by the years end this morning, again something to add strength to the dollar
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #452
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:02am Apr 30, 2018 3:02am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Was there a particular reason why? Other news I have heard from the big banks is Goldman this morning said they expect the T-10 bond yields to go up to 3.5% by the years end this morning, again something to add strength to the dollar
The flows take place to balance their portfolios.

Last month we had strong dollar month end buying because banks were balancing their portfolios and for example cable rebounded later.

Its something good to look out for month end flows because you can bank loads of pips from it.

They normally provide signals for other currencies as well which may end up with heavy buying or selling moth end.
  • #453
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:25am Apr 30, 2018 3:25am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The flows take place to balance their portfolios
Yes, I've heard of this, do you have any good links/sources to read up/use this in trading?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #454
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:29am Apr 30, 2018 3:29am
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  • #455
  • Apr 30, 2018 3:35am Apr 30, 2018 3:35am
Quoting forexin101
{quote} Yes, I've heard of this, do you have any good links/sources to read up/use this in trading?

You can get Ransquawk (its free for two weeks) or forexlive usually show it. Forexlive can send you news throughout the day if you go their website with your mobile. Its really handy for market breaking news.
  • #456
  • Edited 12:09pm Apr 30, 2018 8:23am | Edited 12:09pm
I'm an economist and I worked for the buy side. I'm focusing on quantiative strategies and sometimes I work together with HF Managers.
I'm a little bit disappointed how much "likes" a person can get, who are talking so much BS. Persons who are managing just a few dollars and think they can get rich, because they use a leverage. They watch some dumb youtube clips about PRO-TRADERS, who are selling them the holy grail. It's funny. I would like to know who is sitting behind the screen...
I support Samsons85's view totally. Nevertheless, I would never start a trade without a view on the technicals.
If somebody is interested how the markets really function, you need a good understanding of mathematics/statistics to read scientific papers.
Without the required knowledge you never know if somebody is just talking BS. You can't prove it.

Get some knowledge in macro, econometrics and - what is my favourite one - market microstructure. This should provide a good foundation to start understanding the markets. Good Luck.
ARES!
  • #457
  • Apr 30, 2018 10:33am Apr 30, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Alan.K
I'm an economist and I worked for the buy side. I'm focusing on quantiative strategies and sometimes I work together with HF Managers. I'm a little bit disappointed how much "likes" a person can get, who are talking so much BS. Persons who are managing just a few dollars and think they can get rich, because they use a leverage. They watch some dumb youtube clips about PRO-TRADERS, who are selling them the holy grail. It's funny. I would like to know who is sitting behind the screen... I support Samsons85's view totally. Nevertheless, I would never...

Perfectly said Alan.

I have always said that I use technicals for point of entry and close.

If traders want to get to the next level then they need to understand fundamental analysis.

Thank you
  • #458
  • Edited 1:01pm Apr 30, 2018 12:27pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting forexin101
SELL: NZDUSD and NZDUSD
UPDATE

Finished both of these trades with 93 pips in the bag

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I wanted to enter in for an EURUSD and GBPUSD short for the US session but both of these pairs had exhausted their ATR for the day so I felt it necessary to leave it out, I do however wish I took advantage of the Oil opportunity
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #459
  • Apr 30, 2018 1:03pm Apr 30, 2018 1:03pm
Quoting Alan.K
Get some knowledge in macro, econometrics and - what is my favourite one - market microstructure. This should provide a good foundation to start understanding the markets. Good Luck.
Are there any useful books/resources that you would highly recommend?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #460
  • Apr 30, 2018 1:12pm Apr 30, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Perfectly said Alan. I have always said that I use technicals for point of entry and close. If traders want to get to the next level then they need to understand fundamental analysis. Thank you
Hi Sampson, I have been following your thread and Davit's thread trying to learn more about FA. I want to start using 80% FA and 20% TA. I have recently been watching as many Jarratt Davis youtube video's as I can and taking notes. I am also practicing how to read the markets over the weekend and formulating a trading plan according to my FA. Do you have any recomendations that will help me become a better FA trader? Maybe a process that you use....as in.....what to look for first and then what to look for 2nd.....etc. I'm trying to figure out if there is maybe a piece of FA that might be a "leading indicator" more so than others. I'm also trying to come up with a step by step process on how/where to look for my FA news. A "routine"..... Thanks for your insight and all your help Samson!!
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