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Pivot Trading

  • #17,881
  • Apr 27, 2018 2:33pm Apr 27, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting pgr45za
Just back from lecturing ... to see that I closed my UC shorts and NJ longs too early. Having a JOB helps pay the bills and provides a certain stream of income, but boy is it a pain when this kind of thing happens. Have a great weekend every1.
I am with you. My job takes 10 hours a day of my life. Good pay though. Not my dream. That's why I miss a lot of good entries and exits. But I accepted it the way it is. Until I will be consistent in my trading I will keep day job. Like you said. It pays bills. One day I will be living " traiding only " life. That's my goal !
  • #17,882
  • Apr 27, 2018 3:56pm Apr 27, 2018 3:56pm
Hi Davit , You Are Great Spirit Man Bro Armenian !!!

I have Learn From You and this is the most serious in our Life !

All the Best from the other side of Earth !

Inserted Video
  • #17,883
  • Apr 27, 2018 4:40pm Apr 27, 2018 4:40pm
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same?
Thank you
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,884
  • Apr 27, 2018 4:54pm Apr 27, 2018 4:54pm
Quoting Davit
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same? Thank you

REPORTING BACK:

General feeling: this opens your eyes to what is possible. But to gauge the fundamental undercurrent I feel I have to read a lot of business news from people with boots on the ground.

How it affected my trading: I got all directions right (was it a fluke?) but did not trade JPY, GBP (meeeting), AUD or NZD.
Should of been more aware of the crosses (non USD pairs). Still, got EUR weakness right UC Short later in the week was also good (could of held longer if not at work). I feel that I should of participated in UJ long.

I still have a lot to learn, clearly!

An experience worth repeating. Well recommended.



What I wrote before:
=============

My take on the news for next week and what I expect (I have not read others' opinions yet).

EUR - some slowdown in activity (probably trade fears), business climate still positive, stronger labor market, inflation accelerating but not much (yet). QE still in full swing. Expect EUR to weaken a bit. ECB might signal a tighter monetary policy. Doubtful at this point as Brexit and trade fears remain front and center.

USD - Housing market stable, confidence at high levels but trade fears, employment good, inflation picking up. Expect USD to strengthen.

AUD - No inflation fears, weaker economic activity. Expect AUD to stay weak.

CAD - Behind the curve compared to US on economic activity and inflation. Inflation starting to pick up. Brent rising strengthens CAD.

JPY - Still weak economic activity, no inflation fears, expect accommodative CB, weaker JPY, unless volatility spikes, then JPY will gain.

GBP - Weaker economic activity. Inflation fears seem to have passed. Brexit hiccups. GBP set to weaken.
  • #17,885
  • Apr 27, 2018 5:45pm Apr 27, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lot of lessons in life is in nature. Tiger only catches 10% of prey it attacks and yet she attacks over and over and probabilities eventually win and tiger lives! Think about this.Had the tiger even once doubts she will die.How many of us want success this badly? Then take the effort!Make it count! Do your work calendar!Pivots etc.One can clearly see guys here who outperform others and you must look what they do different and emulate. That's what we do in the Arts.I spend countless hours in museums watching and learning.Its all there and...
If you thought life is hard trading watch what these hunters go through. We risk only coin.
Inserted Video
  • #17,886
  • Edited 8:11pm Apr 27, 2018 8:00pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Davit
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same? Thank you
Helped me a lot with the euro trade, when Draghi started talking and euro was rallying it helped me not close the trade and understand much more what he was saying during his speech.

It also helped me figure out much more the direction which I wanted to trade. Making the calendar myself, writing what I thought about the central bank speeches and hand writing all the events on a piece of paper next to my computer helped me much more than just looking at the FF Calendar.

At the beginning of the week I was kind of paralyzed, like it takes me some time to warm up my trading after the weekend haha. I was focused too much on the fundamentals and not seeing price action and location accordingly.

I need also to work on how much has an expectation or news been priced in the market before the actual data is released.
Davit you called everything right this week from your calendar. You got the fundamental analysis on point too



Davit, how do you balance your life around Forex? You seem to not sleep some nights, like yesterday. Or did you wake up at 4 am for GBP news?
  • #17,887
  • Apr 27, 2018 11:48pm Apr 27, 2018 11:48pm
Quoting Davit
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same? Thank you
Hi Davit,
I have been reading your forum for 2 weeks now and am going through it again for the second time. I never really paid much attention to news until now and I believe that is the reason behind my poor trading results. I started monitoring news announcements this week and watching the effect they had on the market and now understand how vital it is to incorporate news analysis as part of a trading plan. I now see the combination of News Analysis, PA, Pivots and Money Management are a must for this system to work, you cannot leave any of these items out. I've watched the Mark Douglas vid's a few times as well of which have been an eye opener. I am still learning your system and therefore do not post much as I do not want to influence anyone with their own trades. When I am making consistent profits I will contribute more on this forum.

Well done to everyone on their trades this week.

Regards
Rob
Your trade order needs to be in the right place at the right time.
  • #17,888
  • Apr 28, 2018 7:01am Apr 28, 2018 7:01am
Next week will be very important. There will be lots of options to trade. AUD rate statements, NZ employement rate, US NFP, CAD GDP.
Lets see how will price will move before these news.
  • #17,889
  • Apr 28, 2018 8:07am Apr 28, 2018 8:07am
Quoting Davit
Can you guys report back how doing a weekly calendar helped you? or not?What you noticed in your trading? Anything improved or same? Thank you
2nd month trading this strategy, cumm. equity growth 70% balance growth 150%.

Having a clear idea about fundamental factors' trigger points and location of price with respect to pivots for each pair has helped me choose best pairs. Still learning and drafting a trade plan based on 2 years experience documented in this thread. Still at page 47, worth reading all Davit's posts and charts, many gems have been pelted on the path.

Thank You.
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One Good Trade
  • #17,890
  • Apr 28, 2018 8:39am Apr 28, 2018 8:39am
Such a great thread you guys have here +++

Keep up the good work!!!
  • #17,891
  • Apr 28, 2018 9:32am Apr 28, 2018 9:32am
No doubt this is a great strategy. Thanks to Davit. We have learnt a lot from you. Prof. TAH's RDH and RDL adds a lot of common sense to charts. GBP numbers were expected bad and I entered GA at the RDH at Frankfurt Open. Thanks for the Asian Session Signals of this ATR indicator as my TZ is GMT +5.
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Traders gain some knowledge, win, their emotions kick in, and they die.
  • #17,892
  • Edited 10:49am Apr 28, 2018 10:00am | Edited 10:49am
My Calendar events last week of April and 1st week of May

My canvas mode of operation for this week is looking for corrections on USD. Newtons law applies for every action there is reaction.Reaction is often hard to time but after whole week of USD beating on its peers I think step off the gas is more likely then not.Taking profit end of the month factor as well.
Feds rate or not I believe USD is priced in. Opportunities for long NU AU CAD are on my list.PA is always king but this is the tone of my canvas for this week and I could be wrong and if I am then I will adapt and prosper anyway.

Sun 29th
ANZ Business Confidence=If positive green crosses like AN NJ NC will be effected the most.I may get in on NJ again regret getting out of this.

Mon 30th

RBA Gov Lowe Speaks-I don't think he matters day before rate but as Mark Douglas said "anything can happen" and "every moment is unique"

Tues 1st Big day for trading get ready!
RBA Rate Statement-Rate likely to stay same however market always looks ahead and any hint of increase in the future would be bullish for AUD (crosses like AJ good opertunity)

GBP Manufacturing PMI projection is slight red and lately numbers are coming up red on GBP hence I am a seller instead of a buyer of GBP however prefer to stay out there is plenty of action on other pairs.Should GA spike up north I would consider selling it however not likely to happen....

CAD GDP m/m very positive projection and I am holding on to my UC shorts.This is beginning to look better.Glad did not close Friday.

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI slight red here but if prints red may start the corrections moves or facilitate this process.

to be continued

CAD 2:30pm BOC Gov Poloz Speaks any rosy statements would be good for CAD

NZD Employment Change q/q
NZD Unemployment Rate green numbers here would boast NU and crosses specially NJ(NJ increasingly starting to look real good may load up on this beginning of the week)

Weds 2nd Pink elephant in the room Feds day

GBP Construction PMI slight green but could print red and very likely.I am bearish on GBP in general now.

Federal Funds Rate/ FOMC Statement
I think market has priced in whatever this prints.Don't be surprised USD plummeting after this or even before it.

AUD Trade Balance green here and if so anticipate AJ and crosses like EA dropping.Still short on EA as of now...

Thurs 3rd

GBP Services PMI if green anticipate EG dropping and GU may bounce north as well.After so much red news on GBP any green news may have exaggerated spikes.

CAD Trade Balance if green UC correction may continue.

USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI if red good for corrections or if green may not be a factor.

AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Anything bullish obviously would be good for AUD (look for AU longs....)

Fri big day

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m--key factor Feds look at this.Green very good red not so.
Non-Farm Employment Change very green projection.Here its truly wait and see market reactions and numbers.Spike on USD may provide opportunity to sell
Unemployment Rate wait and see.Could print red.

Lot happening this week.Safest way to trade when not sure on USD focus on none USD crosses. AN AJ NJ AC NC EJ EA some great pairs.Avoid hyper pairs like GN GJ

Have a great week

Took me almost 2hrs to do this and I am confident because of it and just going over realized value of NJ for example rather underappreciated and focused my trading outlook for the week.There are many benefits to do this and you will realize the nuances over time. Think like a professional and act like one.No more idiotic charts !stupid projections and mindless proclamations often one sees on boards here....from amateurs.Step above it.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,893
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:06am Apr 28, 2018 10:06am
Quoting mehtabkk
No doubt this is a great strategy. Thanks to Davit. We have learnt a lot from you. Prof. TAH's RDH and RDL adds a lot of common sense to charts. GBP numbers were expected bad and I entered GA at the RDH at Frankfurt Open. Thanks for the Asian Session Signals of this ATR indicator as my TZ is GMT +5. {image} {image}
in the two yrs, the thread has been running how much money has been made just trading Davits system as is.
nothing needs to be added.
  • #17,894
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:23am Apr 28, 2018 10:23am
Quoting dogdays713
{quote} in the two yrs, the thread has been running how much money has been made just trading Davits system as is. nothing needs to be added.
Well said, Its all about having a slight edge not about having a precise price point. As price moves away from WP if no fundamental reason to support the move its probable it will come back. This template has all what is needed.
One Good Trade
  • #17,895
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:53am Apr 28, 2018 10:53am
Quoting Apollo11
Hi Davit , You Are Great Spirit Man Bro Armenian !!! I have Learn From You and this is the most serious in our Life ! All the Best from the other side of Earth ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKkunnukvEg
Welcome and thank you.Looks like you have not posted much since joining FF since 2014...

երջանիկ եւ բարգավաճ ճանապարհորդություն
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,896
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:55am Apr 28, 2018 10:55am
Quoting MoneyTalks58
Next week will be very important. There will be lots of options to trade. AUD rate statements, NZ employement rate, US NFP, CAD GDP. Lets see how will price will move before these news.
you got to put more effort then this.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,897
  • Apr 28, 2018 10:58am Apr 28, 2018 10:58am
Quoting Nenuser
{quote} Helped me a lot with the euro trade, when Draghi started talking and euro was rallying it helped me not close the trade and understand much more what he was saying during his speech. It also helped me figure out much more the direction which I wanted to trade. Making the calendar myself, writing what I thought about the central bank speeches and hand writing all the events on a piece of paper next to my computer helped me much more than just looking at the FF Calendar. At the beginning of the week I was kind of paralyzed, like it takes me...
Days I am off I stay late days I am working generally sleep around 3-3.30am
If you want to make it badly you have to go that extra mile that includes investing more time on trading.You are doing good continue on!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,898
  • Apr 28, 2018 11:09am Apr 28, 2018 11:09am
Quoting Davit
{quote} you got to put more effort then this.
You are right. I will study tomorrow more. As you metioned in the thread countless times, it is very important.
Thanks.
  • #17,899
  • Apr 28, 2018 1:22pm Apr 28, 2018 1:22pm
How Calendar events preparation helped me trading week 17, 2018 (23 April - 27 April)

Monday (23 April 2018)

Trading Plan

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Actual Result

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Conclusion:

EURUSD
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This pair dropped in a weird way for me and reached S61-S78 zone very quickly leaving me hanging only to wait for a good pullback so that I can enter short again. Although, it did break 1.22 which was anticipated in the trading plan. This trade was one of those when PA go past S61 - S100. I thought the best option for me is to leave this pair alone this week and find some other pair which is in the zone.

Tuesday (24 April 2018)

Trading Plan

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Actual Result
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Conclusion:

1. USDCAD
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Although the BOC statement was dovish. I personally didn't want to get bullish while the price is heading towards R61-R100 zone.

2. AUDUSD
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The AUD data came as mixed and I couldn't make sense of it. So, I looked at the charts to see if AUDUSD is in the zone. It had the same story as EURUSD and USDCAD. Going bearish right where I don't feel comfortable in shorts S61-S100.

3. EURAUD
So the AUD news came out and I can see PA rejecting R61 after the news and from R61-R100 its 60 pips. If I start shorting from R61 to R100, I will have a higher probability of getting this trade work in my favor then other trades.

So what I did was
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  • #17,900
  • Apr 28, 2018 1:28pm Apr 28, 2018 1:28pm
Wednesday (25 April 2018)
I was already in the EURAUD trade so there was no point of me being stressed about putting my money into 2 or more trades when I can actively add to my current trade if the probabilities become more favorable.

Thursday (26 April 2018)
Closed my EURAUD trade. Entered short on EURCAD. Which I believed had a more potential to drop from the pivot point. Still holding this EURCAD trade.
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So the results for the week 17, 2018
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Summary: The Calendar preparation assisted me in filtering which trades not to take even the actual data came what was anticipated in the trading plan.

P.S I also have a Fulltime job which I love. I've accepted that most of the time I'll miss the trades but the most important for me is not to take the wrong trades.

Best regards
38 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
kleyfernando