Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

the bears are putting up a fight

Still shorting it. I think it might touch 151 and bounce from there. Both bulls and bears are putting up a fight .

on the 4H chat there looks like there's a fair amount of resistance...i'm also shorting

On 1hr chart, it looks like the price is just hanging on a cliff ready to drop.

I amshoked no one scalps this pair.

152 held. Testing 152.24/25 now. If that is positive, 152.3/5 comes back.

It only lasted to 150.50, now it's rallying again. Let's see whether there'll be a breakout above 153.84.

Closed my short and now I’m just watching

Looks like 152.1 held as well...keen to know what other insights you have

If you are tracking GBPJPY, note that the GBPJPY market is in a complex corrective phase of a downward impulsive trend. On the weekly time frame, price action is in an ascending channel (blue) representing a northward retracement, which peaked at the 78.6 Fib zone (magenta) of the most recent swing down. Price action is operating around the lower part of the channel midline. The H4 time frame shows a mix of corrective ascending channels within the main one (blue) seen on the weekly time frame; a wider one (red) and a minor one (black). The wave structure indicates the likelihood of further upward move before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Former low taken out and 151.95 trying to hold. Am not in bear camp until sustained loss of 151.5/6. Still thinking broader expanding triangle in this area, with 1st move (a) being the drop 152.6~151.7 (90 pips). Very very messy B wave made new high 10~15 pips over that height, exactly as per a regular b wave. If C wave meets length of A wave, then 151.8 ish b4 recovery later back over the 152.2/3 central pivot area

Long with TP of 152.75. Let's see

If I'm right, that final move down could be fairly fast and recover just as quickly. If I'm wrong, it'll just dump. A dump would say that UJ is moving up in three waves and not straight up.

And, as suspected for many days, 151.8 was effectively a do not pass zone

My apologies...noob here...what do you mean?

just because you asked, I'll draw a chart for you over the weekend.

It's practically in freefall now, I hope you've shorted again.

Unfortunately I missed it! Should have put in a sell stop...oh well...guess I saddle up for a buy at some point

Awesome! Thanks! Sorry for the trouble!

No worries. I'll try to do within the next 24 hours or so.

In essence, if GJ isn't going to break up and over 153/156 to the 160's and eventually the 181/5 mark, following with a break over 195 to next res around 212...then a fall under 150.3 leads to 148x and the opposite numbers/distances per the top side argument follow. Whereas I really thought that GU would hold around 139, it failed. As per 151.8 GJ. If GJ is going down further, then normally UJ will follow suit within a week or so.

Under 146/147 eventually back at 139. Drop below 135 takes it to 131/132 then 122.5 (average monthly support before it rose to 195). Final support unlikely to be 116, unless central bank interventions occur. Otherwise probably circa 101/110. Think its gone too far in time for sub 100. From there, I would anticipate a 25 ish year bottom in place (following first ever reversal attempt at 156/157 in 1993 after the great fall in 1988/1992), with complete and total reversal starting back to 250/270 (266 actually) first ever major reversal level just after the time of the 1985 plaza accord.

Not exactly day trading stuff but the major confidence in trading is knowing whether you're going with the trend, meaning that other moves are counter trend or corrections only. That is what we have yet to confirm, although down is starting to firm up.