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Pivot Trading

  • #17,721
  • Apr 25, 2018 8:54am Apr 25, 2018 8:54am
I'm looking at UJ.
  • #17,722
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:01am Apr 25, 2018 9:01am
Yes, watching EA short, NC long, AC long.
  • #17,723
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:02am Apr 25, 2018 9:02am
EJ falling nicely
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AJ, AC, GA - perhaps time to build longs on AUD
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Fall seven times, stand up Eight! #GGMU
  • #17,724
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:12am Apr 25, 2018 9:12am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Yes, watching EA short, NC long, AC long.
EA 1H AB=CD, 4H Butterfly - all @ R100

UC 4H Shark in 100~78 zone

AU 4H Shark in 100~78 zone
  • #17,725
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:21am Apr 25, 2018 9:21am
Quoting Davit
What is amazing to me that there are great set ups now and we got people getting paralyzed to take advantage of great fantastic set ups. No I am not going to tell you look at your charts. There are real traders and there are time wasters.FF is full of the latter.
You are right. Need to work on this hard, I keep asking what if. It comes down to my account size, I think I am ready to deposit more money now. The key I think is being able to set aside and risk 2-3% on a setup and stay calm and with no stress. I know this is probably aimed to me, but there may be other too going through the same. Need to remember like you said that with your strategy probabilities are on our side. Thanks Davit, you opened my eyes once again.
  • #17,726
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:28am Apr 25, 2018 9:28am
Quoting Nenuser
{quote} You are right. Need to work on this hard, I keep asking what if. It comes down to my account size, I think I am ready to deposit more money now. The key I think is being able to set aside and risk 2-3% on a setup and stay calm and with no stress. I know this is probably aimed to me, but there may be other too going through the same. Need to remember like you said that with your strategy probabilities are on our side. Thanks Davit, you opened my eyes once again.
It's your money, but I wouldn't risk more than 0.5% to 1% on each trade.
Before you boost your deposit, ask yourself - Do I really know the rules? Will I really follow through and be disciplined?

If not, it's best to save your money until you are ready.
  • #17,727
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:46am Apr 25, 2018 9:46am
Quoting Nenuser
{quote} You are right. Need to work on this hard, I keep asking what if. It comes down to my account size, I think I am ready to deposit more money now. The key I think is being able to set aside and risk 2-3% on a setup and stay calm and with no stress. I know this is probably aimed to me, but there may be other too going through the same. Need to remember like you said that with your strategy probabilities are on our side. Thanks Davit, you opened my eyes once again.
watch Mark Douglas videos again and read "Trading in the Zone" and reread.
When a tiger is stalking a prey she sprints and that's what she does and does not ask if the prey is fast ,healthy ,strong etc.She sprints and tries to catch and rest is probabilities.
Less than 10% of tiger’s hunts end successfully. Once a tiger has spotted its prey, it sneaks as close as possible to its victim. Then the tiger sprints to the unsuspecting animal, usually pulling it off its feet with its teeth and claws. If the prey animal is large, the tiger bites its throat to kill it; smaller prey is usually killed when the tiger breaks its neck.
I provided a system which has higher win rate then 10% rest is applying.

Don't get attached to your money.Its only a tool to make more.Artist needs paint brushes canvas.Trader needs capital.Its only a means to a goal.I know making that deposit was not easy to lot of people but in the end its only a tool.Problems arise when traders invest way too much emotions in money.This paralyzes decisions.At some point you just need to play the adds and let the chips fall.
Less you care about money more you make.This seems contradictory but its true.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,728
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:01am Apr 25, 2018 10:01am
Inserted Video

A Tribute to Mark Douglas | ShadowTrader Uncovered
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,729
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:07am Apr 25, 2018 10:07am
Quoting snail69
{quote} EA 1H AB=CD, 4H Butterfly - all @ R100 UC 4H Shark in 100~78 zone AU 4H Shark in 100~78 zone
I'm not looking $ trades right now. But for EA looks like R100 area too tough to break, at least for now.
  • #17,730
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:07am Apr 25, 2018 10:07am
Reading an article on pivot trading, the following stats just hit home how powerful the method really is.
Reinforces the concepts of thinking in probabilities, mainly that the further price moves away from the weekly pivot and towards the 61-100 zone, the higher the probability that it will (at some point) revert towards the weekly pivot.

The study sampled 21 pairs including majors and crosses, but excluding exotics over a 15 year period;

  1. 5% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 5.4 days.
  2. 25% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 8.6 days.
  3. 50% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 17.3 days.
  4. 75% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 52.5 days.
  5. 95% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 493.5 days.

It was also noted that when a pair missed 3 consecutive weekly pivots, there was an 80-90% chance of a reversal in the week following the 3 missed pivots.

In the context of current price action - pairs (that I trade) that have not yet traded at the weekly pivot;

AU - currently around S100
EA - currently around R78
EC - currently around R38
EU - heading towards S100
GU - heading to S61
NU - tanking past S100 to S138.
UJ - rocketing towards R200

Goes without saying, the basics of price action around the key zones alongside fundamentals are absolutely key to entry and exit, but certainly feel these numbers could help manage any drawdowns, as we start to think about the probabilities around how pivots are eventually hit.

Green pips all

  • #17,731
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:11am Apr 25, 2018 10:11am
Quoting Davit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTgam-NT9Ww&t=301s A Tribute to Mark Douglas | ShadowTrader Uncovered
"No man ever reached to excellence in any one art or profession without having passed through the slow and painful process of study and preparation," he wrote.
Here is something else he wrote on the secret to success.
"If there is such a thing as a secret to the nature of trading, this is it: At the very core of one's ability 1) to trade without fear or overconfidence, 2) perceive what the market is offering from its perspective, 3) stay completely focused in the "now moment opportunity flow," and 4) spontaneously enter the 'zone,' it is a strong virtually unshakeable belief in an uncertain outcome with an edge in your favor."
RIP Mark.
  • #17,732
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:18am Apr 25, 2018 10:18am
Quoting mch1970
Reading an article on pivot trading, the following stats just hit home how powerful the method really is. Reinforces the concepts of thinking in probabilities, mainly that the further price moves away from the weekly pivot and towards the 61-100 zone, the higher the probability that it will (at some point) revert towards the weekly pivot. The study sampled 21 pairs including majors and crosses, but excluding exotics over a 15 year period; 5% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 5.4 days. 25% of the time a missed pivot is hit in under 8.6 days....
Thats some excellent information, could you share the link to the study please Id like to have a good read on how they got their statistics
  • #17,733
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:26am Apr 25, 2018 10:26am
Quoting el_duende
{quote} Thats some excellent information, could you share the link to the study please Id like to have a good read on how they got their statistics
https://tradewavequant.wordpress.com...ts-as-targets/
  • #17,734
  • Apr 25, 2018 10:54am Apr 25, 2018 10:54am
As long as UJ is pushing north her peers NZD and AUD performing poorly.This can reverse very quickly.Lot of times starts with the Yen
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,735
  • Edited 12:14pm Apr 25, 2018 11:35am | Edited 12:14pm
Quoting Davit
As long as UJ is pushing north her peers NZD and AUD performing poorly.This can reverse very quickly.Lot of times starts with the Yen
So true, could all change in a tweet..
  • #17,736
  • Apr 25, 2018 11:49am Apr 25, 2018 11:49am
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EN has been reaching up for a while, with banks closed and not much NZD news events, still may be a probable trade brewing
  • #17,737
  • Apr 25, 2018 11:52am Apr 25, 2018 11:52am
nice news indicator mate..
  • #17,738
  • Apr 25, 2018 12:02pm Apr 25, 2018 12:02pm
Quoting Davit
GM guys EJ worth tracking nice none USD cross {image}
Hello Davit - I am a newcomer to your thread, and have been taking time to review the postings and all the information provided (although I haven't been able to get through all 887 postings yet ) There definitely appears to be some very good information here which I am still trying to absorb.
This one suggestion on tracking EJ was definitely a good one - since shortly after it did reverse short of R100. It seemed to go right past R78 on the way up. If you don't mind me asking, could your share what information led you to suggest this as a good pair worth tracking at that moment?
  • #17,739
  • Apr 25, 2018 12:46pm Apr 25, 2018 12:46pm
Quoting General Lee
nice news indicator mate..
You can find it here:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=705989

Hope it helps.
Regards,
Paolo
Discipline and winning attitude
  • #17,740
  • Apr 25, 2018 12:59pm Apr 25, 2018 12:59pm
AC- I will be looking at S61 area for rejection. A stong area, I think they will be taking out stops before a bounce.

(spikes stops taken before reversal)
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