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Which pairs are you selling and why?

  • #81
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:30am Apr 20, 2018 6:30am
Quoting KeenPips
Congratulations! KP {quote}
Thanks KP

My plan for next week is to sell GBPUSD as the weekly already showed a rejection. Will wait for Daily & especially H4 rejection respectively.
  • #82
  • Apr 20, 2018 7:13am Apr 20, 2018 7:13am
Good to have a plan and to trade the plan. I usually develop my trade plans for the week on Sunday after doing the pre-week scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watchlist. I have a trade plan for each pair I plan to trade; usually a few pairs per week.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting batus
{quote} Thanks KP My plan for next week is to sell GBPUSD as the weekly already showed a rejection. Will wait for Daily & especially H4 rejection respectively.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #83
  • Apr 21, 2018 5:52pm Apr 21, 2018 5:52pm
As we can all see there is a little resistance area at @151.7 on pound jpy for selling if you don't want to sit watching the volatility like a hawk as there is little risk the pair will rise beyond that: now there is a deeper correction in store back to the 140's which plays into the trend that pound in general weakens after April until much later in the year. The political situation in the UK remains what it is and in the US what it is and in the markets what it is which means, risk trends are not steady so we all have to be.
  • #85
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:16pm Apr 22, 2018 1:16pm
Good post GS.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting Greenstar
As we can all see there is a little resistance area at @151.7 on pound jpy for selling if you don't want to sit watching the volatility like a hawk as there is little risk the pair will rise beyond that: now there is a deeper correction in store back to the 140's which plays into the trend that pound in general weakens after April until much later in the year. The political situation in the UK remains what it is and in the US what it is and in the markets what it is which means, risk trends are not steady so we all have to be.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #86
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:17pm Apr 22, 2018 1:17pm
Please always indicate why on this thread; don't refer us to another thread unless there are more details there. Even then post a summary of it here first.

KP

Quoting Jordi
Hi, I'm selling the NZDUSD, here you can find my reasons https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10986595
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:43pm Apr 22, 2018 1:43pm
I have held a bearish outlook on the USDJPY for quite a while. Last week I set a sell limit at a zone I had been watching since late March 2018. But I had to cancel the order as price action was rather ambivalent. I am still bearish on the pair. Her'es why.

On the H4 time frame, price action is constrained within a wedge/triangle pattern (green). The most recent price action has breached an inner support trendline (black) and now held by the wedge support trendline (green). Last Friday, a bullish candlestick spiked above the inner support trendline (black) and hit the the wedge resistance but ended up printing as a bearish pinbar around the 38.2 Fib retracement (of the most recent downward move from the channel resistance seen on weekly time frame) just towards the latter part of the session. This was countered by bulls and price action printed a bullish candlestick by the close of session. Apparently a tussle between bears and bulls is still on and we may expect bulls to take price action further northward, perhaps to around the 50 Fib retracement zone, the 108.460/109.390 area. However, the overall market structure still favours the bears and we may expect a southward turnaround in the early part of this week.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_H4_22nd_Apr.,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 61 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #88
  • Apr 22, 2018 2:00pm Apr 22, 2018 2:00pm
I look to sell the GBPUSD this week. Here's why.

During this month, price action tested the high of the bullish candlestick formed in January 2018 and turned around southward.

On the daily time frame, a series of bearish candlesticks formed last week took price action southward within an ascending channel (magenta) where it has been operating since February 2018. Last week Friday, bears took price action further southward to breach the channel support. We may expect a retest of the channel support, or even a 50/61.8 Fib retracement, before impetus for a bearish continuation. Thereafter, we may see bears take price action toward the immediate horizontal support around the 1.38450/1.37640 area. An ascending trendline (black) seen on the weekly time frame may be a temporary barrier which bears would have to contend with.


On the H4 time frame, price action is heading southward from the ascending channel (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. It is respecting a resistance trendline (blue). As the weekly candlestick printed last week was a bearish engulfing candlestick, I expect a southward continuation, more likely after a 50/61.8 Fib retracement. Of course, any thing can happen and bears may have the edge to take price action further southward without much northward retracement. At any rate, I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for the market to show its hands and then look for a sell opportunity.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_22nd_Apr.,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 59 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_22nd_Apr.,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 57 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #89
  • Apr 24, 2018 10:37am Apr 24, 2018 10:37am
I am currently looking to sell the eur/chf for the simple fact that it has run up on a major resistance line dating back to the floor that was put in back in 2014 but was ultimately broken in January 2015 when the Swiss removed the floor and the chf pairs fell off a cliff. The eur/chf has rallied much recently and I believe is in a good spot for a pullback to 1820-1850 area. This is a highly speculative trade because it will be going against the prevailing trend but it remains to be a low risk trade with a stop loss slightly above the recent high. Happy trading everyone.

AB
  • #90
  • Apr 24, 2018 11:20am Apr 24, 2018 11:20am
Trade safe. Going against the major trend will mean you don't linger in the market.

KP

Quoting abailey
I am currently looking to sell the eur/chf for the simple fact that it has run up on a major resistance line dating back to the floor that was put in back in 2014 but was ultimately broken in January 2015 when the Swiss removed the floor and the chf pairs fell off a cliff. The eur/chf has rallied much recently and I believe is in a good spot for a pullback to 1820-1850 area. This is a highly speculative trade because it will be going against the prevailing trend but it remains to be a low risk trade with a stop loss slightly above the recent high....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #91
  • Apr 25, 2018 1:13am Apr 25, 2018 1:13am
GbpUsd price is now at the SNR level, looking forward for a Daily rejection for today closing. Already enter a short entry at the level.
  • #92
  • Apr 25, 2018 1:56am Apr 25, 2018 1:56am
XAUUSD has breached a support trendline I was watching on the H4 tf and I have entered a sell trade just below it.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #93
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:12am Apr 25, 2018 2:12am
The GU is another pair I'm tracking for a sell trade. The technical structure is bearish but there is no momentum and atm sideways.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting batus
GbpUsd price is now at the SNR level, looking forward for a Daily rejection for today closing. Already enter a short entry at the level.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #94
  • Apr 25, 2018 6:12am Apr 25, 2018 6:12am
I am holding a bearish technical bias on NZDUSD. The weekly and monthly tfs on the pair are technically synced for a bearish disposition. Price action on the weekly tf is operating in a wide horizontal channel (magenta coloured in attached D1 chart) and disposed southward, perhaps with bears being attracted to the channel support. A support trendline (black) has been breached by price action.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_D1_Tech_Update_25th_Apr.,_2018.png Size: 51 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #95
  • Apr 25, 2018 12:50pm Apr 25, 2018 12:50pm
I agree. I have a short chain on this trade just playing against a long term support/resistance area. Thanks, I will stay alert.

AB






Quoting KeenPips
Trade safe. Going against the major trend will mean you don't linger in the market. KP {quote}
  • #96
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:21pm Apr 25, 2018 2:21pm
Shorting pound Jpy during the last 10 minutes of the day because from here, 152.430 it is sure to go down for long enough before it can be expected to rise. I rarely if ever get to participate in the real battles. Right before the end of the day, 11 am here, things pick up as people try to get the pair just a little bit higher so as to not register a lower high, which they didn't succeed in doing today. And I just happen to also be at the computer. I watch for a little while, wait until the final burst, and then short. This should last for some hours. Later in the week comes the crunch for someone in this time zone and I will be trading it entirely with limit orders: event risk for pound late on Thursday night, and 4 AM Friday morning with Mark Carney's speech. I think what I am doing here is paying attention to liquidity; by now I know early to middle Asia too well. To me, it's 'boring' but actually, it fits my needs for time unrelated to trading and I don't really even have to touch it, except to close the trade in profit before the real action starts much later.
  • #97
  • Apr 25, 2018 2:30pm Apr 25, 2018 2:30pm
GS, happy to learn that you are having success with your trades. Looks like you are using a feasible strategy for your trading sessions.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting Greenstar
Shorting pound Jpy during the last 10 minutes of the day because from here, 152.430 it is sure to go down for long enough before it can be expected to rise. I rarely if ever get to participate in the real battles. Right before the end of the day, 11 am here, things pick up as people try to get the pair just a little bit higher so as to not register a lower high, which they didn't succeed in doing today. And I just happen to also be at the computer. I watch for a little while, wait until the final burst, and then short. This should last for some...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98
  • Edited 10:07pm Apr 25, 2018 7:35pm | Edited 10:07pm
Keeping pound Jpy short at 152.430 even though a bit higher high was achieved in Asia. On the Weekly the 78.6 fib level from a 144.959 low to the 156.600 high is at 154.050 where I still have several limit orders. Looking at my RSI 3, there seems to be a divergence on the Daily; price action is appearing to be slower rise and looks mashed down at the moment, but Asia can be deceptive to rely upon; nevertheless I am keeping the position due to curiosity and ability to handle the size, which is small. My preference of course is to sell higher; I'm still waiting for the chance and still think pound will slow up and has another fall in store before a higher high much later in the year. Maybe, just Maybe, Brexit will appear less No-exit then. ...and my opinion is that it is priced in to the pound and will help it if it happens.
  • #99
  • Apr 26, 2018 1:54am Apr 26, 2018 1:54am
What happens around the 154.930/156.850 zone should be of interest for a sell swing trade. The zone is bound by magenta coloured lines in the attached D1 chart.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_D1_Tech_Update_26th_Apr.,_2018.png Size: 53 KB


Quoting Greenstar
Keeping pound Jpy short at 152.430 even though a bit higher high was achieved in Asia. On the Weekly the 78.6 fib level from a 144.959 low to the 156.600 high is at 154.050 where I still have several limit orders. Looking at my RSI 3, there seems to be a divergence on the Daily; price action is appearing to be slower rise and looks mashed down at the moment, but Asia can be deceptive to rely upon; nevertheless I am keeping the position due to curiosity and ability to handle the size, which is small. My preference of course is to sell higher; I'm...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #100
  • Edited 12:50pm Apr 26, 2018 12:19pm | Edited 12:50pm
We can see a rejection on weekly, Daily , H4 and H1 as well . I will hold my short position on GbpUsd.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP.jpg Size: 408 KB
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