To Pipccess and Beyond
Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%
- #427
- Edited 8:58pm Apr 24, 2018 8:45pm | Edited 8:58pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
I took a short on a cable this morning based on the sentiment from yesterdays dollar strength. Cable is in fact bullish vs the other major pairs, but the dollar continues to pressure it which I will hope forces the big boys to take profit from prior longs which would see cable tank down more. Quite frankly NZD looks a better pair to short, but seeing as I do not understand the reasons for its fluctuation I will not trade. Also its daily range is not as attractive as cables or even EUR which is currently bearish. We also have Carney speaking at 7pm...
My focus will be on Thursday ECB Interest rate release as wells as the Risbanks one also.
Friday we had GDP release for pound which could be a market mover
- #428
- Apr 25, 2018 6:57am Apr 25, 2018 6:57am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
So earlier on today I saw an opportunity to go long GBP/NZD. NZD has arguably been the weakest currency due to various factors but poor recent CPI's being the main reason. In prior months there was NZD strength seen for no particular reason, but the currency has now found its true trend of weakness.
I did not plan to trade today but the NZD weakness was too much to pass up on for this mornings session. Yields were also impacting NZD/USD quite heavily.
The trade is current in profit
but has been a choppy session
I did not plan to trade today but the NZD weakness was too much to pass up on for this mornings session. Yields were also impacting NZD/USD quite heavily.
The trade is current in profit
but has been a choppy session
- #429
- Edited 9:07am Apr 25, 2018 7:26am | Edited 9:07am
- | Joined Dec 2017 | Status: Trader | 245 Posts
Was going to post earlier but needed to make sense of what was going on in the markets, my bias before the LDN open was a SELL for the AUDUSD due to: 
US SESSION
For the US open my bias is going to still be a weak AUDUSD, however, I had felt that the USD momentum was somewhat weakening, but just as I wirte this I am seeing that the T-Bonds (and therefore the USD) are gaining strength giving more confirmation to my bias.
Also, I will be adding two other pairs to my bias: 
- The USD strengthening because of the T-Bond yields
- And the AUD weakening due to statements from banks commenting on the unlikelihood of the RBA raising rates until 2019, also a/a CPI was below expectations
This is where I entered my short position before the retracement occurred
US SESSION
For the US open my bias is going to still be a weak AUDUSD, however, I had felt that the USD momentum was somewhat weakening, but just as I wirte this I am seeing that the T-Bonds (and therefore the USD) are gaining strength giving more confirmation to my bias.
Also, I will be adding two other pairs to my bias:
- USDCAD buy - Although Oil has been gaining due to geopolitical reasons, the sentiment for Oil today seems to be bearish and with the POC speaking today I expect Poloz to still continue to be dovish
- NZDUSD - NZD has been very bearish this past couple of days, with risk off in the markets and China trade disputes along with its economic correlation to AUD I will be shorting this as well (just entered in the NZDUSD)
To Pipccess and Beyond
{quote} Did you mean you'll be buying USD/CAD?
UPDATE ON THE TRADES:
- With the AUDUSD and NZDUSD, they have both met some resistance killing the downward momentum, but the fundamentals are still present to maintain my bias
- For my USDCAD long (not short! Lol) News has come out that the US is not looking to re-negotiate or re-open the JCPOA which is going to have a bullish effect on oil and eventually the CAD, so I will be looking to liquidate this position
I am also aware that I need to work on getting better entries which I am working on
To Pipccess and Beyond
- #433
- Apr 25, 2018 9:47am Apr 25, 2018 9:47am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
So earlier on today I saw an opportunity to go long GBP/NZD. NZD has arguably been the weakest currency due to various factors but poor recent CPI's being the main reason. In prior months there was NZD strength seen for no particular reason, but the currency has now found its true trend of weakness. I did not plan to trade today but the NZD weakness was too much to pass up on for this mornings session. Yields were also impacting NZD/USD quite heavily. The trade is current in profit
Nzd and eur are the weakest currencies today minus mxn which has taken a beating due to nafta/ political uncertainty.
- #436
- Apr 26, 2018 3:04am Apr 26, 2018 3:04am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
This morning I decided to trade Risabank interest rate release. It was a dovish statement as SEK missed its CPI for the quarter and Ohlsson dissented at keeping interest rates unchanged. This was an extremely volatile trade that required patience because a lot of traders were trigger happy during the statement causing serious fluctuation in volatility but I waited 6 minutes until the market digested the dovish statement
As you can see it was a technical entry which was bought right on the daily pivot.
Up next I will be trading the ECB interest rate release at 12:45pm which will require due diligence as the language needs to be interpreted correctly. The market seem to be quite dovish due to poor data releases, trade concerns etc
As you can see it was a technical entry which was bought right on the daily pivot.
Up next I will be trading the ECB interest rate release at 12:45pm which will require due diligence as the language needs to be interpreted correctly. The market seem to be quite dovish due to poor data releases, trade concerns etc
- #438
- Apr 26, 2018 9:04am Apr 26, 2018 9:04am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
I took a long on cable below the daily pivot as I received notice that Algo/Model buying was taking place at 1.39. Since then cable has taken of. I will hold this position with the stop loss close to 1.39. 1.38/9 is close to where the pricing in took place for the BOE potential May rate hike so it seems traders have released their positions for profit and entered at 1.39. {image}
I traded the post ecb meeting (which was uneventful) and went long based on dollar softness which was a silly mistake and cost me half today's profit. Nothing from the conference suggested going long, but I did it based on the dollar index being down and other currencies doing well vs the dollar. I normally go in quite heavy on ecb day but today's material preview and weak minutes statement left me more reserved so I take a positive from how I managed the risk
- #439
- Apr 26, 2018 10:57am Apr 26, 2018 10:57am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
{quote} Currently 40 pips in profit for cable
I shorted eur/USD post ecb conference once we broke the daily low. I had gone long previously thinking the dollar would take a beating today but It slipped my mind that we had opions expiring also of the back Draghis poor conference (market wanted more from him hence the sell off)
I managed to bag 30 pips which covered the loss for the previous eur/USD trade making today fully profitable.
Overall been a fantastic trading week thus far
- #440
- Apr 27, 2018 5:08am Apr 27, 2018 5:08am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
Today we had the release of GDP for the pound which missed expectation by 0.2 for both which is quite a big deviation. We have had misses on employment and cpi also as well as retail sales this far this month.
I traded the release live and currently over 35 pips in profit
If GDP for usd is positive today with a big deviation it could move the market although the Fomc are not data dependent.
I also took very tiny positions on usd/cad usd/jpy and usd/chf which I closed all in profit via early morning usd buying (Friday boredom, 0.1% risk trades lol)
I will look to long usd/cad should we get a massive beat on usd GDP later today
I traded the release live and currently over 35 pips in profit
If GDP for usd is positive today with a big deviation it could move the market although the Fomc are not data dependent.
I also took very tiny positions on usd/cad usd/jpy and usd/chf which I closed all in profit via early morning usd buying (Friday boredom, 0.1% risk trades lol)
I will look to long usd/cad should we get a massive beat on usd GDP later today
