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  • #6,141
  • Apr 20, 2018 3:32pm Apr 20, 2018 3:32pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello T4i Probably, given the scenario on the big picture with the weekly still moving to the downside best wishes
ok, thats what I thought.

but what is it with "don't catch the falling knife"? or is this the wrong situation?
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,142
  • Apr 20, 2018 3:36pm Apr 20, 2018 3:36pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello T4i Not at all, T.I.O.F as you know is for charts and questions You know my rules already. I set stops based on structure, volatility and the zones. There is no single way that is "the way", never is. I know supply and demand traders who use what are called fixed stops like you describe, others use a percentage of the size of the zone etc. Once the trader chooses one, he/she should work with it for a while to see how things go and then tweak accordingly best wishes

Hey Akt,

phew thank god hahaha..

ok, then I would just have to test what fits my personality.

on the next roundtable, can you please go into the process of momentum lines? it doesn't have to be the whole hour but just when you go through the process.

thanks bro for everything.
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,143
  • Apr 21, 2018 7:16am Apr 21, 2018 7:16am
my thought process on GBPJPY

Weekly Curve
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Weekly (Current situation)
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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,144
  • Apr 21, 2018 10:11am Apr 21, 2018 10:11am
Quoting T4i
{quote} Hi mike.noname, Its always a good idea to share your analysis with the community because only then someone can help you and you also learn faster :-). Regarding the EURAUD I would wait and look for long opportunities instead of short (my opinion) since the weekly is in a uptrend. what is your time frame sequence? that would be important. for me, I am using W-D-4hr (but sometimes I go to D-4hr-1hr which I need to be more consistent to use W-D-4hr). what I have learned is that for ex. when you use W-D-4hr sequence you would want wait until...


Hi T4i , Hi to all other trades,

my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H.

For the start I tried to write down some basic rules, please have a look at them

- my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H
- on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone
- on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line
- for the entry I use the 4H chart
- on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones
- on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart.
- when daily momentum line is broken by an ohcl candle, I take the trade in the opposite direction of the daily momentum line
- the zone on the 4H chart must be embedded in a weekly or daily supply / demand zone

points that I have in mind, which I am not sure about:

- only enter a trade, when a special R:R ist given. This means the next zone must be soo far away that I can get my planned R:R
- should I trade according to the momentum line of the weekly, daily or 4H chart? For the time now, I decided to trade in the direction of the daily momentum line. When broken with on a ohcl candle on the 4H chart, I trade in opposite direction
- I did not define, what criteria a zone must meet, that I consider it a tradeable or valid zone. Like, fresh zone with no touches, zone that took our other zones and so on. The only criteria I mentioned above is that the zone I trade must be within a weekly or daily zone.

What do you think about my rules/points? All advice/comments are welcome.

Thank you, have a nice weekend.

Greetings Mike
  • #6,145
  • Apr 21, 2018 5:07pm Apr 21, 2018 5:07pm
Quoting mike.noname
{quote} Hi T4i , Hi to all other trades, my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H. For the start I tried to write down some basic rules, please have a look at them - my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H - on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone - on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line - for the entry I use the 4H chart - on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones - on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart. - when daily momentum...

Hey Mike, i think have rules based on the quality of the zones is also important. ie. how much times spent at the level, strength of departure, etc.
  • #6,146
  • Apr 22, 2018 2:57am Apr 22, 2018 2:57am
Quoting mike.noname
{quote} Hi T4i , Hi to all other trades, my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H. For the start I tried to write down some basic rules, please have a look at them - my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H - on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone - on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line - for the entry I use the 4H chart - on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones - on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart. - when daily momentum...
I like the write up

Have some of the write ups as well in my trading plan
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,147
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:22am Apr 22, 2018 3:22am
Quoting mike.noname
{quote} Hi T4i , Hi to all other trades, my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H. For the start I tried to write down some basic rules, please have a look at them - my time frame sequence is Weekly - Daily - 4H - on the weekly chart I mark the nearest supply / demand zone - on the daily chart I mark the supply / demand zones and I draw the momentum line - for the entry I use the 4H chart - on the 4H chart I mark the supply / demand zones - on the 4H chart I take trades according to the momentum line of the daily chart. - when daily momentum...
Hello mike.noname
Thank you for sharing this
A workable plan. Great great start.

One note as i was reading your post it occurred to me that you have made a decision to trade both sides, i mean, with trend and counter trend.
That is do-able for sure but they require not only different time-frames but also, and most importantly, different mindsets.
Some traders take more easily to counter trend trades and others to trend trading.
Doing both will require you to develop the skills of being able to switch hats with each trade.

On the comment about zone assessment, i highly recommend it. Assessing the quality of a chart and the zones on the chart are critical to trading the methodology.

Again, thank you very much for sharing. Most helpful

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,148
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:27am Apr 22, 2018 3:27am
Quoting T4i
{quote} Hey Akt, phew thank god hahaha.. ok, then I would just have to test what fits my personality. on the next roundtable, can you please go into the process of momentum lines? it doesn't have to be the whole hour but just when you go through the process. thanks bro for everything.
Hello T4i
No worries, we can go through identifying momentum using various tools, trend-lines, momentum oscillators and price action over the next few meetings

Shameless plug for the Roundtable below :

For the traders and readers here who may not be aware, the Roundtable that T4i refers to is the weekly sunday night meeting i have with my traders and students where we go through the markets each week, taking a detailed look at the Forex markets, gold, oil, stock indices, etc, and come up with trade ideas if there are any.
It is a subscription based service so if you are interested do contact me and we can get you joining us each week.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,149
  • Apr 22, 2018 6:38am Apr 22, 2018 6:38am
Hello everyone.
The next article in the T.I.O.F series

Do you understand?

Elliott wave, Wyckoff method, Fibonacci, price action, volume spread analysis, supply and demand trading, indicator-based approaches, fundamental analysis, classical technical analysis, candlestick analysis. Just a few of the various approaches to trading out there.

The practitioners of each method or approach insist that their method is the best, the only profitable way to trade. Looking on the internet, reading most trading books and watching a lot of videos, the message of the practitioner/author is the same, “trade this way if you want to make money”.

There is a lot of energy and effort put into attempts to make a nonsense of a particular method or “prove it wrong”. The question remains to be answered though, “what is the best method to trade the markets?”.

Going a little deeper, why is that question even asked? If the trader truly and categorically believed his activities in the market all boil down to speculation why would that question even come up?
Clearly, there is a pervasive belief in the trading community that there is such a “best method” and that losses are to be avoided at all cost, especially, consecutive losses. The natural human reaction to stop after trying a system for a time whether a week, a month or a year.

What is often not understood is the old trading tenet that the there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any and every trading system. It is a fruitless exercise trying to avoid losses. The trader does not control the outcomes of his or her trades.
It is also impossible to know when the losing sequences will come, how big they will be and how long they will last.

Something we often repeat to Roundtable members is that to successfully trade the markets, we must all make out peace with the inevitable, the losses. They are inevitable and unavoidable.
By all accounts, people often regarded as some of the world’s best traders have a success rate of 40-60%. This is considered very poor by most other traders.
The successful ones however understand the type of activity they are engaged in. They are more interested in pressing their advantage when they have it rather than trying to win every battle (trade). They are more interested in winning the war.

That is why on the Roundtable, our entire focus is on the aspects of trading we can control, our processes. Processes for market assessment, risk assessment, trade selection and management.
It is critical to keep this in mind as one embarks on the journey of becoming a trader.

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,150
  • Apr 22, 2018 12:00pm Apr 22, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting Akt
What is often not understood is the old trading tenet that the there is a random distribution between wins and losses for any and every trading system. It is a fruitless exercise trying to avoid losses. The trader does not control the outcomes of his or her trades. It is also impossible to know when the losing sequences will come, how big they will be and how long they will last. Something we often repeat to Roundtable members is that to successfully trade the markets, we must all make out peace with the inevitable, the losses
Absolutely 100% false. If that is what one has to tell him/herself to cope with their inability to understand why their analysis was wrong then that is their coping mechanism. Failure to take responsibility and blame it on some randomness is a shitty way to live your life, and a way to make sure you fail as a trader. If you lost the trade, you lost because you tried to use a hammer when a screwdriver was better suited for the job, and you failed to recognize the proper tool to use. Why would I use sunglasses to drive at night and expect a positive outcome. When I wreck the car should I blame it on some random distribution or would I be better served by recognizing the error of using sunglasses to drive at night? Maybe better to use my awareness to see that it's not a good idea to drive a car with sunglasses at night or I guess one can just keep blaming it on some random distribution of bad luck.
You do realize price itself is a lagging indicator? If you can't tell me at what price and time fresh supply and demand will show up the process is poorly thought out. Every fresh supply and demand level is clearly telegraphed in advance. Every supply and demand zone that is broken is clearly telegraphed in advance. If your process doesn't tell you that then the problem isn't random distribution it's your process. Oh wait, it's not your process, you just adopted someone's else process based upon their flawed premise of how price behaves. If it wasn't a flawed process you would be spending your day trading the process rather than posting in an attempt to separate others from their money.
  • #6,151
  • Apr 22, 2018 1:35pm Apr 22, 2018 1:35pm
Hello,

thank you all for your answeres and comments.

Here are some thoughts about the quality of supply / demand zones

- the nearer the zone is, the better (my entry chart is the 4H chart, zones that are away more than 3/4 weeks are not considered as valid zones and are getting deleted)
- valid zones are : DBR, RBD, DBD and RBR
- the base should form a kind of equilibrium
- the greater the move away from the equilibrium, the better

My thoughts are based on another thread on FF and on the following article:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=316631 --> thanks to deankenny21 and the posters in this thread
https://www.forexmentoronline.com/th...trading-guide/ --> thanks to the author and also to deankenny21, who posted th article on the thread mentioned above

All comments/advice is appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

Greetings Mike
  • #6,152
  • Apr 22, 2018 2:27pm Apr 22, 2018 2:27pm
Quoting eesnard
{quote} Absolutely 100% false. If that is what one has to tell him/herself to cope with their inability to understand why their analysis was wrong then that is their coping mechanism. Failure to take responsibility and blame it on some randomness is a shitty way to live your life, and a way to make sure you fail as a trader. If you lost the trade, you lost because you tried to use a hammer when a screwdriver was better suited for the job, and you failed to recognize the proper tool to use. Why would I use sunglasses to drive at night and expect...
Hello eesnard.
I guess we will agree to disagree on that point.

On the premise that price is a lagging indicator, i don't know how much you read the thread but i did write an entire article on that same premise on the 22nd of October 2017, right here in this thread, page 148. I would urge you to read it.

if indeed price is a lagging indicator, how then does at what price and time fresh supply and demand will show up, if one has to wait for it to show up?
That surely in itself make it lagging.

We are all entitled to our opinions, for sure.
I was taught. Just like in every profession, every pursuit, every career, we are all taught.
I don't deceive myself to think that my process is the best way because i know there is no best way. So should we all.
There is no need for unpleasantness

Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,153
  • Apr 22, 2018 2:57pm Apr 22, 2018 2:57pm
Quoting eesnard
{quote} Absolutely 100% false. If that is what one has to tell him/herself to cope with their inability to understand why their analysis was wrong then that is their coping mechanism. Failure to take responsibility and blame it on some randomness is a shitty way to live your life, and a way to make sure you fail as a trader. If you lost the trade, you lost because you tried to use a hammer when a screwdriver was better suited for the job, and you failed to recognize the proper tool to use. Why would I use sunglasses to drive at night and expect...
The methodology doesn't involve identifying supply and demand before it shows up. If you know when fresh supply or demand is going to come into the market without inaccuracy then I'm certain Goldman Sach's will want to talk with you and your time will be better spent elsewhere.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #6,154
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:07pm Apr 22, 2018 3:07pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello eesnard. I guess we will agree to disagree on that point. On the premise that price is a lagging indicator, i don't know how much you read the thread but i did write an entire article on that same premise on the 22nd of October 2017, right here in this thread, page 148. I would urge you to read it. if indeed price is a lagging indicator, how then does at what price and time fresh supply and demand will show up, if one has to wait for it to show up? That surely in itself make it lagging. We are all entitled to our opinions, for sure....
page 248*
  • #6,155
  • Apr 22, 2018 5:25pm Apr 22, 2018 5:25pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello eesnard. I guess we will agree to disagree on that point. On the premise that price is a lagging indicator, i don't know how much you read the thread but i did write an entire article on that same premise on the 22nd of October 2017, right here in this thread, page 148. I would urge you to read it. if indeed price is a lagging indicator, how then does at what price and time fresh supply and demand will show up, if one has to wait for it to show up? That surely in itself make it lagging. We are all entitled to our opinions, for sure....
Preach.
  • #6,156
  • Apr 22, 2018 8:18pm Apr 22, 2018 8:18pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello eesnard. I guess we will agree to disagree on that point. On the premise that price is a lagging indicator, i don't know how much you read the thread but i did write an entire article on that same premise on the 22nd of October 2017, right here in this thread, page 148. I would urge you to read it. if indeed price is a lagging indicator, how then does at what price and time fresh supply and demand will show up, if one has to wait for it to show up? That surely in itself make it lagging. We are all entitled to our opinions, for sure....
Preach Master Preach....
  • #6,157
  • Apr 23, 2018 2:21am Apr 23, 2018 2:21am
Hello everyone.
A recent trade on Gold closed out last week...before and after.

The premise for the trade was that of trading the daily uptrend that was in pace at the time of the set and forget entry
The negative for the trade was that as shown, prices were in an identifiable range, so the trade was managed accordingly.

best wishes
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Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,158
  • Apr 23, 2018 1:56pm Apr 23, 2018 1:56pm
Hello, quite new here but not new to SD. WOuld like to know if anyone here trades 15 min or 1 hour? If so, let me know.
  • #6,159
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:22pm Apr 23, 2018 3:22pm
good evening peeps,

here an outlook on AUDNZD

comments are welcomed

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"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
  • #6,160
  • Apr 24, 2018 1:36pm Apr 24, 2018 1:36pm
Quoting T4i
good evening peeps, here an outlook on AUDNZD comments are welcomed {image}
Hi T4i,

very nice analysis, thanks for sharing.

Attached you will find my analysis for AUDNZD.

I would definitly search for long entries (demand zones).

I can't decide which demand zone I would take. Any ideas on that?

Thanks in advance.

Greetings Mike
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