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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #39,641
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:07pm Apr 20, 2018 2:07pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, I apologize for the distraction you guys had to deal with and my gratitude for all of your supporting comments! Every now and then we get these space cadets that come through and we have to take time to crush their mindless arguments. It's quite comical really and they never make any sense. I will be posting more regularly starting Monday and we will keep moving forward.
Dear Mr. Pip, I used to be one of the poor souls who actually been a subscriber for Trade Empowered. However my journey of becoming a consistently profitable trader ended with you. I admire your humble service without expecting anything in return. Thank you
One Good Trade
  • #39,642
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:14pm Apr 20, 2018 2:14pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Hello Traders, I apologize for the distraction you guys had to deal with and my gratitude for all of your supporting comments! Every now and then we get these space cadets that come through and we have to take time to crush their mindless arguments. It's quite comical really and they never make any sense. I will be posting more regularly starting Monday and we will keep moving forward.
Hi Damion, I know you are a gentleman, why don't you use "Ignore" button to remove the weeds and pests from the thread. For example Davit is master of this.
One Good Trade
  • #39,643
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:25pm Apr 20, 2018 2:25pm
Quoting PandionFX
{quote} Hi Damion, I know you are a gentleman, why don't you use "Ignore" button to remove the weeds and pests from the thread. For example Davit is master of this.
Davit is a little too extreme of an example. Oddly enough the naysayers here are much less in volume. Probably a good reason for that. Mr. Pip doesn't attract very many of them.
  • #39,644
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:30pm Apr 20, 2018 2:30pm
Quoting csternfx
I'm feeling somewhat lost today. I have a price action question I got hung up on. In my chart below, the blue line represents my swing on 233T. It set a NSL. So then we get a complex correction. Once that finally breaks the NSL of my new swing (yellow line), where do I count as my HL? Is the red line my new swing to work from? There are multiple in the complex correction so I'm kinda confused. Maybe my expectation is incorrect. {image}
Here's how I drew it up this morning. Notice my purple/blue lines, when I'm not sure which swing is going to be at play I just draw all of them and see what plays out in terms of projection/momentum. I took my first trades on the 3rd and 4th yellow swings on the IOF. As soon as I see that 2nd yellow line 1:1 play out, that's the order flow I'm going to be on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 107 KB
  • #39,645
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:34pm Apr 20, 2018 2:34pm
Quoting csternfx
{quote} Davit is a little too extreme of an example. Oddly enough the naysayers here are much less in volume. Probably a good reason for that. Mr. Pip doesn't attract very many of them.
Out of curiosity I watched one of Jason's youtube videos. I got a bit of a chuckle when I heard him, speaking of a clear high/low say "would 100 out of 100 traders call this a high/low?". Hmmm, seems like I've heard that before.
  • #39,646
  • Apr 20, 2018 3:00pm Apr 20, 2018 3:00pm
Hey guys I've been sitting on the sidelines for a while.
A month ago I almost blew my whole (small size) futures account doing really crazy stuff.
I've been studying and been reflecting on my trading.
I'm gonna be around again, trading demo YM for a while until I'm confident.

I said it before, this is a great thread and the members are awesome, supporting and standing up for each other and Mr. Pip.
Today it was proven again
Have a great weekend!
  • #39,647
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:22pm Apr 20, 2018 6:22pm
Quoting PeterT
Hey guys I've been sitting on the sidelines for a while. A month ago I almost blew my whole (small size) futures account doing really crazy stuff. I've been studying and been reflecting on my trading. I'm gonna be around again, trading demo YM for a while until I'm confident. I said it before, this is a great thread and the members are awesome, supporting and standing up for each other and Mr. Pip. Today it was proven again Have a great weekend!
Did the same & doing the same (glad to see you still around). Couldn't agree more about the great thread too!
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #39,648
  • Apr 20, 2018 6:36pm Apr 20, 2018 6:36pm
Quoting mukai
{quote} Well done PeterH. I've been following your posts.....I remember one post around March or feb when you were a bit frustrated....you had lost soo much, you went back to Demo trading....when you came back, you came back with a "bang", you had quite some profitable moments, I've also noted now you take both short term and long term trades, which are profitable. I'm encouarged. Could you please share with us, when you went back to demo trading, what did you discover was making you lose money, what did you fix, I notice a real turn around in your...
Thanks for the kind comments. Yes my trading has certainly turned a corner. I kept a log of my trades on a spreadsheet from Feb & Mar and looked long and hard at the trades. I determined that I carried out my trade plan fairly well but that my plan was flawed. Also I noted that about 20% of the time I did not execute well and should have passed on opportunities far more. I noted a lot of errors and there was a lot of emotional problems. Also back testing I noticed that I had created a trade plan that resulted in lots of Break Evens when the expectation went on to play out so I changed my rules.

I have made lots of changes. Below is a summary:

1. Trade rule change: I changed my rules so that I have less break evens (BE). I move to the break even position for the shorter term YM144 trades only when the price makes a NSH or NSL or when structure is broken through and I feel that momentum is faltering. In other words I move to BE less quickly and allow the trade to 'breathe' even if it means giving back some of the pips sometimes. I have found I have a few more stop outs but far more winning trades.

2. Emotionally I am more detached now. I take the view that the moment I press the buy or sell button I am committing to the trade (regardless of how good the entry was) and from that point I need to follow my rules. I have thus made the trading more mechanical. This helped me a lot as it removed a lot of fear from my trading. To start with I used the F6 horizonal line on Ninjatrader and type 70% on the TP position and 30% on the SL position. It was a reminder that these lines were the chances of the trade and thus I need to leave the trade to play out more often that I was doing previously. Previously I had issues with emotions with my trades. I would move to break even too quickly, launch into a trade when I should have taken more care. I would previously be fearful of a direction change against me based on what I thought the candles were telling me (which was often a negative counter-productive thought).

3. I introduced longer term trades which I found less 'dynamic' in that you can place the trade in the morning, check it every hour or so and leave it to play out. I knew the 100+ pip losses would hurt more when I hit them but it also meant that when the trades played out to profit the profits would also be larger. I also used the ruler tool to determine the size of the swing in pips as this determines the planned profit if you get the 1:1 and compared it to the stop loss position. Using the ruler more allowed me work out the risk:reward. When trades failed I knew all of them were at the worst case 1:1 R:R but nearly all were in my favour so again this helped. I also knew that cutting trades short would hurt the longer term position so I let trades play out more. Backtesting showed me that the 1:1 harmonic happens on the long term a great deal and this gave me confidence.

4. I previously got confused over the overflow I was trading. I would switch between YM1597, YM144 or read the orderflow wrong. I still make mistakes but I am better able to see which swings I should be trading and when expectations are broken and thus for the next trade I now need to focus on the opposite direction. I noted that when expectations broke that the chances of an expectation failing again was higher and the correction was likely to be more pronounced (i.e. 78% or even 100% at times) so I knew not to take on 38% or 50%'s so much when expectations were broken (i.e we get the 30% likelihood).

5. Stop losses - I previously placed the stop loss religiously 5 pips above the swing. Now I am considering the previous swings and placing the stops behind structure where possible and on a number of trades I have seen trades that would have hit the stop reverse and I can move the take profit to BE+5 pips (i.e. rescue mission). The stop losses are higher so a few lose me more but I think the structure 'protection' really helps save a few trades. The last video from Mr Pips made me realise that I was overly looking at the Fib and that Structure is King.

I hope this helps!
  • #39,649
  • Apr 20, 2018 7:20pm Apr 20, 2018 7:20pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Hello Monocor, Not that I need to address your simple minded comment but since you seem to be full of anger and crap let me take this special time to set you straight. Perhaps your anger stems from frustration, or from the inability to be profitable, I don't know? You pic and I'm done attacking you. I will let you know that The trade Empowered clan have been amazing network marketers and have substantial income from people like you and the many poor soles what have been miss led by the promise of becoming profitable traders. In short they...
This is pure gold!
What a bunch ofheads. Keep on rockin' Mr. Pip.
Wow! I've got some experience to gain.
  • #39,650
  • Apr 20, 2018 8:43pm Apr 20, 2018 8:43pm
Quoting PandionFX
{quote} Hi Damion, I know you are a gentleman, why don't you use "Ignore" button to remove the weeds and pests from the thread. For example Davit is master of this.
Thank you for your very nice comment. I don’t ignore or ban anyone no matter what is said the reason why is because,

1. I know how to take out the trash very swiftly.

2. Even a dumbass can learn and sometimes this business frutastes the best of us and pushes to attack and question everything from a negative point of because of it.

3. It may help others see or understand something better.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,651
  • Apr 20, 2018 8:49pm Apr 20, 2018 8:49pm
Quoting Lawnman
{quote} This is pure gold! What a bunch ofheads. Keep on rockin' Mr. Pip.
Thank you my friend.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #39,652
  • Apr 21, 2018 3:47am Apr 21, 2018 3:47am
Quoting PeterT
Hey guys I've been sitting on the sidelines for a while. A month ago I almost blew my whole (small size) futures account doing really crazy stuff. I've been studying and been reflecting on my trading. I'm gonna be around again, trading demo YM for a while until I'm confident. I said it before, this is a great thread and the members are awesome, supporting and standing up for each other and Mr. Pip. Today it was proven again Have a great weekend!
Good to hear you're back to demo. It helped me a great deal.

I found out recently that there are firms in the UK (FXCM) that offer CFD accounts rather than Future accounts on the US30 (@US30 on Ninjatrader) that allow you to trade an index which is very similar to the YM at a lower cost per pip (i.e. you can trade for far less than $5 a pip if you wish) so if after you have demo'ed for a bit you want to start with a smaller account perhaps if in your country there is a similar set up you can give it a look.
  • #39,653
  • Apr 21, 2018 4:34am Apr 21, 2018 4:34am
Hello,

i wish to share with you an analysis on the YM the 20th of April.

You can observe that the price action realised 3 times i a raw 75 ticks with a pullback of 28 ticks 2 times.

I am questionning the people of experience here that might give some light to this price action.

I am just wondering if these ration can be traded the way I proposed it on the graph (see text parts).

If the trend is downward, waiting for the 2nd pullback to go Short.
If the downward trend seems to end because new buyers are entering with more confidence in the market, then the former pullback of 28 ticks will be no more valuable as the price will reach higher highs..

I do observe a lot of these ratios when the market is ranging with small or medium volatility.

Thanks for your feedback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YMM8_200518_233ticks_ratios_x3.png Size: 258 KB
  • #39,654
  • Apr 21, 2018 4:39am Apr 21, 2018 4:39am
Hi,
Does anyone have the MQ4 file for this indicator?
Thanks in advance.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DB_HarmonicScanner_Confirmation_B.ex4   4 KB | 748 downloads
  • #39,655
  • Apr 21, 2018 8:57am Apr 21, 2018 8:57am
Quoting lifespirit
Hello, i wish to share with you an analysis on the YM the 20th of April. You can observe that the price action realised 3 times i a raw 75 ticks with a pullback of 28 ticks 2 times. I am questionning the people of experience here that might give some light to this price action. I am just wondering if these ration can be traded the way I proposed it on the graph (see text parts). If the trend is downward, waiting for the 2nd pullback to go Short. If the downward trend seems to end because new buyers are entering with more confidence in the market,...
Not just for YM but for many market's when they trend, the second sell is always more probable then the first especially when the angle and power of the second rotation/turn is strong and/or shows the passive orders strength. after the 3rd move ( Leg-down/up) if you like the probability of continuation decreases. in terms of the point movement per leg for retrace and continuation, it's unrealistic to use and expect but approximate figures may help judgement, Nonetheless focus should be on price because Things change and if you cloud judgement by thinking a certain move is certain or get overly biased, you get confirmation bias where you ignore information that does not support your view.

P.S something on biases https://stockstotrade.com/cognitive-biases/ .. Good to know.
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #39,656
  • Apr 21, 2018 12:56pm Apr 21, 2018 12:56pm
Hi Damian,

I thank you for your generosity, glad to know there is successful trader who want to share his system and help others. i really appreciate that
I will read from page 785 as you suggested, and wow it will be 1200+ pages. it will need massive time and effort.

I really like your idea about price, and we trade by the price reference, seems so true, and i believe it has correlation with Elliot wave which also using Fibonnaci. I'm still reading about how to create NSH,HL,NSL,LH, and your explanation is very clear shows us how great mentor you are.

If i find something that i need to ask, can i post to this thread? or maybe i shouldn't? i still don't know the rules in this thread, and before i start messing this thread, i hope you or somebody can tell me what i should do as a new comer.

Thank You
  • #39,658
  • Apr 21, 2018 1:12pm Apr 21, 2018 1:12pm
Quoting PeteH
{quote} Good to hear you're back to demo. It helped me a great deal. I found out recently that there are firms in the UK (FXCM) that offer CFD accounts rather than Future accounts on the US30 (@US30 on Ninjatrader) that allow you to trade an index which is very similar to the YM at a lower cost per pip (i.e. you can trade for far less than $5 a pip if you wish) so if after you have demo'ed for a bit you want to start with a smaller account perhaps if in your country there is a similar set up you can give it a look.
Thanks PeteH. Yes I heard about the possibility of trading US30 CFDs.
I'm with FXCM for forex. Didn't know (or forgot) they offered US30 CFDs.
Will have a look at it on monday.
If it shows the same behaviour as forex (spikes, widening spreads etc.) then I think I'll pass and just stay demo
  • #39,659
  • Apr 21, 2018 1:17pm Apr 21, 2018 1:17pm
Quoting monocor
Hidden
Thanks, we hope so
  • #39,660
  • Apr 21, 2018 1:24pm Apr 21, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting monocor
Hidden
If we all going to be winners like you, then who remains to lose to us...? did you ever thought about that...?
Don't tell others your secret....
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