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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #401
  • Edited 1:00pm Apr 19, 2018 12:26pm | Edited 1:00pm
Quoting Samson85
I have gone short GBP/USD as profit taking will start taking place from this recent run up due to poor CPI & Employment data this week. I believe GBP/USD is going to fall to 1.40. Option traders are also betting that the pound is to fall to 1.40 rather than rally up to 1.45 according to bloomberg.com The entry was taken on the 23.6% fibanachi level 1.42011. You will see this month has a similar upward trend to that of last year September (chart below with arrow indicating sell off) when pound rallied up for the same reasons (Pricing in interest...

Due to the success of the trade I added another short position.

So far gbp/USD has tanked over 100 points.

As expected the boe govenar showed concerns over employment data, cpi as well as the poor retail sales we got today.

The trade is on target for 1.40 and the fundamental/sentiment outlook will see it through.

The trade could possibly hit target tonight as 1.40 is the s3 pivot
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  • #402
  • Apr 19, 2018 1:43pm Apr 19, 2018 1:43pm
Nice Trade. Good logic, well executed. Congrats.
  • #403
  • Apr 20, 2018 4:48am Apr 20, 2018 4:48am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Due to the success of the trade I added another short position. So far gbp/USD has tanked over 100 points. As expected the boe govenar showed concerns over employment data, cpi as well as the poor retail sales we got today. The trade is on target for 1.40 and the fundamental/sentiment outlook will see it through. The trade could possibly hit target tonight as 1.40 is the s3 pivot {image}

I have now closed all my positions into profit. Did not want to hold any as we had BOE Hawkish member speaking (Not good if I am in a short position lol) If he had been dovish we would have seen GBP Tank down but he was justifiably hawkish.

Great trade and I hope to post another one soon.

Thanks

Have a great weekend.
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  • #404
  • Apr 20, 2018 7:56am Apr 20, 2018 7:56am
So I thought I was done for the week but then I remembered we had CAD CPI out today.

As you know by now I like to trade risk events. One of the key data releases for CAD is CPI as its one of components they use to raise interest rates

Please see the trade below which is in profit.

Thanks.

Last trade (I think). Have a nice weekend
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  • #405
  • Apr 20, 2018 9:08am Apr 20, 2018 9:08am
Quoting Samson85
So I thought I was done for the week but then I remembered we had CAD CPI out today. As you know by now I like to trade risk events. One of the key data releases for CAD is CPI as its one of components they use to raise interest rates Please see the trade below which is in profit. Thanks. Last trade (I think). Have a nice weekend {image}

Profit taken but I closed just below the original target as I needed to go restaurant lol.
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  • #406
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:06pm Apr 20, 2018 2:06pm
Hi, samson85 and everyone, Do you have a list of fundamentals and how they might affect on currency? example: US inflation up = USD down
  • #407
  • Apr 20, 2018 7:37pm Apr 20, 2018 7:37pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I have now closed all my positions into profit. Did not want to hold any as we had BOE Hawkish member speaking (Not good if I am in a short position lol) If he had been dovish we would have seen GBP Tank down but he was justifiably hawkish. Great trade and I hope to post another one soon. Thanks Have a great weekend. {image}

Slightly pissed of as my analysis was correct that gbp/USD would hit 1.40 but lacked the patience to hold which happens from time to time.

I did in fact add another trade in when Saunders spoke but i cancelled it as I didn't like the entry.

Overall I can't complain as I caught over 100 pips on this trade
  • #408
  • Apr 20, 2018 8:13pm Apr 20, 2018 8:13pm
Quoting smak1111
Hi, samson85 and everyone, Do you have a list of fundamentals and how they might affect on currency? example: US inflation up = USD down
Try this for basics:

https://youtu.be/t0ydm2K8m_8
  • #409
  • Edited 2:20am Apr 23, 2018 2:06am | Edited 2:20am
I took a short this morning with no real strong conviction considering we had already hit 1.40. This trade was entered on more about hoping instead of knowing it would !00% go in my direction. The wise thing to do would have been to wait until tomorrow as there is no real sentiment today!!

Even if the trade hits my target I wont see this as a good trade as not all of my rules were put in place hence such a tight stop loss
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  • #410
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:14am Apr 23, 2018 3:14am
Quoting Samson85
I took a short this morning with no real strong conviction considering we had already hit 1.40. This trade was entered on more about hoping instead of knowing it would !00% go in my direction. The wise thing to do would have been to wait until tomorrow as there is no real sentiment today!! Even if the trade hits my target I wont see this as a good trade as not all of my rules were put in place hence such a tight stop loss {image}
Closed this trade on a 10 pip profit lol. Choppy Monday but still not happy with the execution of the trade.

I also traded this because US Yields were up.
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  • #411
  • Apr 23, 2018 7:09am Apr 23, 2018 7:09am
Took a very tiny position on usd/cad going long but I should have waited for a proper pull back and not took the trade on the phone as I didn't use a fibanachi. Got stopped out for 20 pips lol.

I will enter again at a better level with a larger position size as cad cpi was poor.
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  • #412
  • Edited 2:58am Apr 24, 2018 2:44am | Edited 2:58am
Quoting Samson85
Slightly pissed of as my analysis was correct that gbp/USD would hit 1.40 but lacked the patience to hold which happens from time to time. I did in fact add another trade in when Saunders spoke but i cancelled it as I didn't like the entry. Overall I can't complain as I caught over 100 pips on this trade
Good calls recently on GBP.

My take is that GBP has been under apparent pressure since last Wednesday's unexpectedly poor CPI result. I assume this factor has been overriding, as it effectively undoes all of the recent GBP strength that was anticipating possible rate hikes, which are now less likely as a result.

Skeptics of FA will of course say that there were other reasons, or that it was mere coincidence. Of course there's no way of proving them wrong -- heavyweight sentiment can fluctuate for any number of unknowable reasons -- but then there's no need to, either, as we simply bank the pips gratefully, and move on.
  • #413
  • Apr 24, 2018 4:16am Apr 24, 2018 4:16am
Both technical and fundamental analysis are important. For completeness it's better to use two approaches, It helps to make balanced decisions.
  • #414
  • Apr 24, 2018 4:32am Apr 24, 2018 4:32am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Good calls recently on GBP. My take is that GBP has been under apparent pressure since last Wednesday's unexpectedly poor CPI result. I assume this factor has been overriding, as it effectively undoes all of the recent GBP strength that was anticipating possible rate hikes, which are now less likely as a result. Skeptics of FA will of course say that there were other reasons, or that it was mere coincidence. Of course there's no way of proving them wrong -- heavyweight sentiment can fluctuate for any number of unknowable reasons...
Just for your information 'hanover', UK CPI came in lower, prices are cooling again, normalizing. It was not as you say 'poor', if anything it is a good thing for the UK, that the levels of inflation are coming back down, towards the Bank of England's target of 2%. GBP weakened on the back of this release due to the fact that it means the Bank of England would be less likely to rush and raise rates, seeing as inflation is normalizing.
  • #415
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:12am Apr 24, 2018 5:12am
I've recently got myself sufficiently acquainted into the world of fundamental trading and hope to contribute to this thread, yesterday I was able to capitalise on the USD strength due to an increase in bond yeilds, I expect the momentum to continue.

The weak pairs I will be pairing with the USD is the JPY (geopolitical reasons, Abes comments yesterday), AUD (weak data, no rate hike in sight) and GBP (Brexit troubles and May rate hike now not looking likely)
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #416
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:19am Apr 24, 2018 5:19am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Good calls recently on GBP. My take is that GBP has been under apparent pressure since last Wednesday's unexpectedly poor CPI result. I assume this factor has been overriding, as it effectively undoes all of the recent GBP strength that was anticipating possible rate hikes, which are now less likely as a result. Skeptics of FA will of course say that there were other reasons, or that it was mere coincidence. Of course there's no way of proving them wrong -- heavyweight sentiment can fluctuate for any number of unknowable reasons...
Hi Hanover,

Hope you're well.

It was originally pound selling, but if you look at pound vs the other pairs it is still bullish. The dollar has pretty much killed everything due to yields etc.

I do expect cable to go down further but we have Carney speaking tonight and you never know he could blame the recent poor data on the uk weather which mean he would do a Uturn to last weeks dovish statement which caused cable to tank.
  • #417
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:19am Apr 24, 2018 5:19am
Quoting Flieldel
Both technical and fundamental analysis are important. For completeness it's better to use two approaches, It helps to make balanced decisions.
I agree with you to an extent
  • #418
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:20am Apr 24, 2018 5:20am
Quoting forexin101
I've recently got myself sufficiently acquainted into the world of fundamental trading and hope to contribute to this thread, yesterday I was able to capitalise on the USD strength due to an increase in bond yeilds, I expect the momentum to continue. The weak pairs I will be pairing with the USD is the JPY (geopolitical reasons, Abes comments yesterday), AUD (weak data, no rate hike in sight) and GBP (Brexit troubles and May rate hike now not looking likely)
I like your analysis and thought process. Please be sure to share trade ideas so we can compliment one another.
  • #419
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:22am Apr 24, 2018 5:22am
Quoting Samson85
Took a very tiny position on usd/cad going long but I should have waited for a proper pull back and not took the trade on the phone as I didn't use a fibanachi. Got stopped out for 20 pips lol. I will enter again at a better level with a larger position size as cad cpi was poor. {image}
I jumped back in on this USD/CAD position with a better entry and hearing yields were grazing the 3% mark. I was able to capitalise on it this time round with a tiny profit.
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  • #420
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:35am Apr 24, 2018 5:35am
I took a short on a cable this morning based on the sentiment from yesterdays dollar strength.

Cable is in fact bullish vs the other major pairs, but the dollar continues to pressure it which I will hope forces the big boys to take profit from prior longs which would see cable tank down more.

Quite frankly NZD looks a better pair to short, but seeing as I do not understand the reasons for its fluctuation I will not trade. Also its daily range is not as attractive as cables or even EUR which is currently bearish.

We also have Carney speaking at 7pm tonight which could leave me to set the trade to break even and let it tank further hoping that he is still dovish.
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