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AUD/USD

  • #103,881
  • Edited 1:44am Apr 19, 2018 1:17am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting 2dollardog
Nope to what? It went right up and straight down. I shorted at 0.7780 for a scalp. Then, it went right back up, but it fits your plan and that's awesome! I got into the bullish trend finally. woot
Nope just to the fact that even such bad data could not change the up-trend.
Sounds like you made some good green pips. Congrats mate!
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,882
  • Apr 19, 2018 1:21am Apr 19, 2018 1:21am
You too, man. What a tough pair!
  • #103,883
  • Edited 1:55am Apr 19, 2018 1:45am | Edited 1:55am
Quoting 2dollardog
You too, man. What a tough pair!
Yes! Probably one of the most difficult currency pair to trade. The correlation between AUD and rest is quite complicated in addition to the government’s contradictory messages to the market. This creates a lot of confusion.

But again we see similar manipulative tendencies with EUR, Yen an the US dollar. Good luck man.
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,884
  • Apr 19, 2018 2:03am Apr 19, 2018 2:03am
AUDUSD H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au h4.PNG Size: 54 KB
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #103,885
  • Apr 19, 2018 4:46am Apr 19, 2018 4:46am
Quoting okshop
AUDUSD H4 {image}
Nice work buddy
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,886
  • Apr 19, 2018 10:51am Apr 19, 2018 10:51am
Quoting okshop
AUDUSD H4 {image}
AU CLOSE
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd close h4.PNG Size: 24 KB
Self discipline It is a practice
  • #103,887
  • Apr 19, 2018 11:54am Apr 19, 2018 11:54am
Yeah. This pair is heavily manipulated by the market makers. Best way for me to trade is on the definitive trend with a risky wide stop and tiny holdings.

The pound is getting hammered which is pushing the dollar up. In turn it's hammering AUDUSD. Even right now, the dollar should be reversing as per normal daily range (manipulation), but it hasn't done so. It probably will in a couple hours, but because it hasn't yet, dxy is on a bullish trend. Currently, it is stickied at the 200 daily moving average via the 4 hour chart a the very top of a newly established trend. If it closes above the 200sma and above that trend line, dxy won't stop. How much DXY impacts AUDUSD is something I am not familiar, so this is just speculation.

Newbs: This is not a trade setup, but a review of trend bias with speculation (guessing). Create your own plan and stick with it.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JojXx5ta/
A view of AUDUSD with its 200 simple moving average via H4:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cZNi1iLs/


Plan your trade. Trade your plan.

Fabulous luck to you all.
  • #103,888
  • Apr 19, 2018 4:45pm Apr 19, 2018 4:45pm
Quoting 2dollardog
You too, man. What a tough pair!
It looks like my setup may have failed. Anyway there is no loss as of yet and I will give it more time, as all this might be a bear trap. Let’s see
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #103,889
  • Apr 19, 2018 5:08pm Apr 19, 2018 5:08pm
Thanks for getting back. I'm relieved to hear you didn't lose out. Good trader! That pattern I follow that denotes a possible trend change is often followed by a bull trap before further descent on its downside. It's related to the Wyckoff market cycle for which I am not well versed. It's just a pattern that I cannot help notice when I come across.

I'm not convinced of a trend change for this pair. DXY still needs to retrace, too. Trump will probably bark again. ha
  • #103,890
  • Apr 19, 2018 7:23pm Apr 19, 2018 7:23pm
The trend upward after bad data is certainly market manipulation, does anyone even read the COT reports? It's also consistently having meek bull momentum while having bulldozing bear momentum. Pretty much every single full-time trader has told me not to trade the news for a reason, and it's the advice that literally turned me around into making profits after two account blow ups.

But I digress. It also does help to know that someone has to only work 1 hour a week in Australia to be considered employed, and a quarter of our work force are "casual" employees. Meaning they are not entitled to any hours of work. Be very careful when seeing supposedly good employment data, it's not always the case since our services/tourism industry is growing fast and is notorious for hiring the bulk of casual staff. Usually they are younger because they are ALOT cheaper and you can just not give them any shifts once they turn a certain. Hire a 15 year old and they cost a measly $9 base rate. Get a 21+ year old and they can cost up to $21 an hour. I would assume this data is actually even worse than it looks. Tread carefully AUD bulls.
  • #103,891
  • Apr 19, 2018 7:26pm Apr 19, 2018 7:26pm
Good info!

KP

Quoting baaldeagle
The trend upward after bad data is certainly market manipulation, does anyone even read the COT reports? It's also consistently having meek bull momentum while having bulldozing bear momentum. Pretty much every single full-time trader has told me not to trade the news for a reason, and it's the advice that literally turned me around into making profits after two account blow ups. But I digress. It also does help to know that someone has to only work 1 hour a week in Australia to be considered employed, and a quarter of our work force are "casual"...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #103,892
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:02am Apr 20, 2018 5:02am
The market is perfectly performing within a bullish channel. A clear close above the upper bound will clear the path for a significant rally.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #103,893
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:05am Apr 20, 2018 5:05am
Quoting Beyfor
The market is perfectly performing within a bullish channel. A clear close above the upper bound will clear the path for a significant rally. {image}
Unlikely, it will go down to test 0.75XXX before any reversal.
  • #103,894
  • Apr 20, 2018 8:34am Apr 20, 2018 8:34am
AUD heavily tanked, Royal banking commission found a Commonwealth Bank financial planner collecting fees for no service from a passed away client from his superannuation for 10 years. Possibly now leading to bank reform and discussion.
  • #103,895
  • Apr 21, 2018 8:55am Apr 21, 2018 8:55am
Quoting Beyfor
The market is perfectly performing within a bullish channel. A clear close above the upper bound will clear the path for a significant rally. {image}
i do agree, i think 0.7600 is a strong fundamental support for aussie before it will bounce up high.
we just need to wait for a couple day

i hope iam right.
  • #103,896
  • Apr 22, 2018 9:07pm Apr 22, 2018 9:07pm
The pair could push lower if break below the immediate support at 1.7655.
  • #103,897
  • Apr 23, 2018 6:59pm Apr 23, 2018 6:59pm
Down to 0.7600 and I still see bullish signals and patterns all over. DXY still skyrocket. Crazy market.
  • #103,898
  • Apr 24, 2018 5:13am Apr 24, 2018 5:13am
Possible false breakout, waiting for confirmation

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 59 KB
  • #103,899
  • Apr 24, 2018 7:24am Apr 24, 2018 7:24am
The news about a possible increase in US inflation is causing the dollar to appreciate in other currencies. Would a break be possible because of it?
  • #103,900
  • Apr 25, 2018 12:45pm Apr 25, 2018 12:45pm
Does anyone remember ArslanHyder? He was so hilarious convinced of an Aussie strength, he even insulted everyone trying to bring in the possibility that he might be on the wrong side ..

.. anyway, thank you Arslan for all the pips meanwhile!
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