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  • #381
  • Apr 17, 2018 8:10am Apr 17, 2018 8:10am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} If you look at where I shorted it from it hit the target. Employment data came out bad and Instantly sold when I saw the data appear. It was quick scalp because pound needed a pull back and data is a quick way to make pips of you understand how to as there are different methods to trading risk events. Although I thought there was a possibility of it hitting s2 pivot it didnt not a big deal as I still profited. I hope this helps. I am now long gbp/nzd because nzd is the weakest today. Will post trade soon.
I did see that, but stepping in front of freight trains to pick up pennies has been tried before, the results are catastrophic.

You are a younger man, check out this documentary. Not trying to scare you, I just want potentially good traders to become real students of the markets.

http://watchdocumentaries.com/trillion-dollar-bet/

Quoting Samson85
{quote} If you look at where I shorted it from it hit the target. Employment data came out bad and Instantly sold when I saw the data appear. It was quick scalp because pound needed a pull back and data is a quick way to make pips of you understand how to as there are different methods to trading risk events. Although I thought there was a possibility of it hitting s2 pivot it didnt not a big deal as I still profited. I hope this helps. I am now long gbp/nzd because nzd is the weakest today. Will post trade soon.
I would also like to add that you took off 50%, what about the other 50%?

Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Man o man...you better check your facts. I posted about 54 diversified systematic fund managers that trade non-predictive technicals earlier in this thread with an audited track record of 18 years plus....is this selective reading?...... The struggle we had apart from Jarrad Davis's track shorter term track record was finding longer term track records in the Fundie space that matched them. Not to say that fundamentals is not a valid technique but please don't apply selective memory and it helps to back up your assumptions.
This is why I come here. I love the chance to coach potentials. Your work gives them the chance to profit if they can get through it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #382
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:33am Apr 17, 2018 9:33am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I did see that, but stepping in front of freight trains to pick up pennies has been tried before, the results are catastrophic. You are a younger man, check out this documentary. Not trying to scare you, I just want potentially good traders to become real students of the markets. http://watchdocumentaries.com/trillion-dollar-bet/ {quote} I would also like to add that you took off 50%, what about the other 50%? {quote} This is why I come here. I love the chance to coach potentials. Your work gives them the chance to profit if they...

Lol much appreciated and thanks for the links.

Will check them out.

Just got back in and gbp/nzd is very choppy and took a 4 pip profit lol.

The dollar has comeback to run riot but there was bad key data for Germany and UK which is pressuring eur/usd & gbp/usd.

In relation to the other half I just took it off as the daily pivot rejected the drive down.
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  • #383
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:36am Apr 17, 2018 9:36am
I didn't see the thread before so I'll answer the first post, if you don't mind.

There are several thoughts after reading the first post.
Firstly, the news is really cool when you know which way the market will go, otherwise you could just lose 50k as well.
Secondly, the news is connected with and go according technical analysis very often.

I agree about big players.

It's easier for me to trade on the non-news market, fewer surprises.
Based on my observations the market without news can run more pips a day than on the news. Just have to wait a little longer.
Looking for partners
  • #384
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:47am Apr 17, 2018 9:47am
Quoting GeorgeDow
I didn't see the thread before so I'll answer the first post, if you don't mind. There are several thoughts after reading the first post. Firstly, the news is really cool when you know which way the market will go, otherwise you could just lose 50k as well. Secondly, the news is connected with and go according technical analysis very often. I agree about big players. It's easier for me to trade on the non-news market, fewer surprises. Based on my observations the market without news can run more pips a day than on the news. Just have to wait a little...

I agree with alot of what you said maybe minus run more pips but then again it really depends on the climate so it's very subjective.
  • #385
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:56pm Apr 17, 2018 3:56pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I did see that, but stepping in front of freight trains to pick up pennies has been tried before, the results are catastrophic. You are a younger man, check out this documentary. Not trying to scare you, I just want potentially good traders to become real students of the markets. http://watchdocumentaries.com/trillion-dollar-bet/ {quote} I would also like to add that you took off 50%, what about the other 50%? {quote} This is why I come here. I love the chance to coach potentials. Your work gives them the chance to profit if they...

This is a very very powerful. I just watched it and I can understand that every financial model is at risk as markets never stay the same but with that said I don't feel like I could ever become that polarized to know when not to take a step back.

I watched a seminar recently and it stated that if a market turns sour for your system then that's an indication hat you need to diversify and not just focus on currencies for example. If I cannot find a trade i may turn to oil as that's an area where I have access to info as well and have an adequate understanding of it.


Here is a nice light documentary for you:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6cig5n

Wouldn't surprise me if you've seen it before but it shows some aspects of how i trade on it (amplified trading in the show). It's a two part one.
  • #386
  • Apr 17, 2018 6:28pm Apr 17, 2018 6:28pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol much appreciated and thanks for the links. Will check them out. Just got back in and gbp/nzd is very choppy and took a 4 pip profit lol. The dollar has comeback to run riot but there was bad key data for Germany and UK which is pressuring eur/usd & gbp/usd. In relation to the other half I just took it off as the daily pivot rejected the drive down. {image}
Samson, as a fundamental driven trader I feel you are trading too much. If fundamentals are your edge, you should let it play out. Thoughts?

Quoting Samson85
{quote} This is a very very powerful. I just watched it and I can understand that every financial model is at risk as markets never stay the same but with that said I don't feel like I could ever become that polarized to know when not to take a step back. I watched a seminar recently and it stated that if a market turns sour for your system then that's an indication hat you need to diversify and not just focus on currencies for example. If I cannot find a trade i may turn to oil as that's an area where I have access...
Are you sure? Your thread title is polarizing to many. Thoughts?

Quoting Samson85
{quote} This is a very very powerful. I just watched it and I can understand that every financial model is at risk as markets never stay the same but with that said I don't feel like I could ever become that polarized to know when not to take a step back. I watched a seminar recently and it stated that if a market turns sour for your system then that's an indication hat you need to diversify and not just focus on currencies for example. If I cannot find a trade i may turn to oil as that's an area where I have access to info as well and have an adequate...
Nice vids. I am glad you are wanting to be an actual student of the markets. Doing that will allow you to enjoy what you do so much more than profit and loss. Since you are a fundamentals trader here is a little music video for you related to your craft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #387
  • Edited 8:45pm Apr 17, 2018 8:31pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Samson, as a fundamental driven trader I feel you are trading too much. If fundamentals are your edge, you should let it play out. Thoughts? {quote} Are you sure? Your thread title is polarizing to many. Thoughts? {quote} Nice vids. I am glad you are wanting to be an actual student of the markets. Doing that will allow you to enjoy what you do so much more than profit and loss. Since you are a fundamentals trader here is a little music video for you related to your craft. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTQnarzmTOc
Lol no. Yesterday I knew there was a chance the buying could come to an end hence why I took profits from the swing trade yesterday. The market had already heavily priced in the rate hike and good employment numbers would have been the icing on the cake but that turned out not to be the case. Now take into account that so far I have managed to take the vast majority of pound strength this month that being 240 pips because I understood the fundamentals. I have been telling traders to look at the 1 day chart and go to September to see the last form of excess buying which was due to pricing in a rate hike which traders later took profit. What is also expected to happen on May 10th is as soon as we see the hike officially take place pound will fall because traders will take profit. There is a chance maybe pound could go up after the press conference but BOE's Carney would need to be extremely hawkish (An article from a top fund manager also referenced this on Bloomberg.com). We have CPi today for the pound and if negative this could potentially put and end to the rally as profit taking could occur again.


I also trade risk events that being data releases as I have been taught and know how to profit from them. You cannot trade every currencies data releases depending on where they are up to central bank wise. For example jpy data doesn't move markets due to qe and at one point cad was not reacting well due to nafta. Eur for example hardly does anything but German data can be somewhat impactul to the eur depending on the deviation in numbers to that of the forecast/expectation.

The title is not polarizing because it does not say fundamentals full stop. I have said that technicals are needed for entry and to assist closing for profits and setting stops etc. I use pivot points and fibanachi. If a pivot point falls in line the same as fibanachi point that provides extra confluence to put on the trade on. Ultimately the fundamental is the purpose for the trade. Support and resistance is also vital as well as price action hence why I chose to trade gbp/aud on Friday even though aud was not the weakest player in comparison to usd and jpy. Entries for gbp/USD and gbp/jpy would have involved buying at the highs so I chose to buy at the lows via gbp/aud which turned out to be a good trade (available to see if you revert to the previous Friday on this thread). Nzd was in fact the weakest currency to trade against but recently nobody has been able to predict the price movement for NZD or even explain it's strength over the last months.

I do not trade too much whatsoever. If I see an opportunity to make pips like i saw with the emploment data yesterday then I will take it. I went long gbp/nzd after speaking with the analysts from my provider as we discussed that traders may take advantage of the dips presented by the employment data. Unfortunately that was short lived as when the American session kicked in and they to took profits off the table.

I Will not be right on every trade but as long as I get the bulk of the fundamental moves via swing or intra day I'm a happy man.



Thank you for the music video
  • #388
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:29am Apr 18, 2018 2:29am
I saw you mention amplify, samson.
They do a daily market briefing on their youtube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9Uq0frGjRk

Normally uploaded around mid-day so a little bit of a lag, but the information is good and it gives an idea of how prop traders are mapping out the day and week ahead.
Worth the watch if you haven't checked them out already.
  • #389
  • Apr 18, 2018 2:51am Apr 18, 2018 2:51am
Quoting wannabebig
I saw you mention amplify, samson. They do a daily market briefing on their youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v9Uq0frGjRk Normally uploaded around mid-day so a little bit of a lag, but the information is good and it gives an idea of how prop traders are mapping out the day and week ahead. Worth the watch if you haven't checked them out already.
I use to watch them when I 1st started out but then I purchased ransqauwk so I get my analysis from them roughly at 6am every morning which provides guidance for what sentiment is out there.

The guy who normally does the morning briefings at amplified is a superb analyst and commentator as he use to be the main squawker at Ransquawk and that guy has made firms and retailer traders hundreds of millions with him delivering ground breaking news.

When I get back to London I will attend a few of their workshops just to see whether I can gain more insight and touch up my skills.

Amplified have an app game you can download called ReTrader which is a game that teaches you to trade breaking news which is really good.

They also feature in this documentary: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6cig5n which is what ultimately put them in some form of limelight. Check it out
  • #390
  • Edited 4:23am Apr 18, 2018 3:54am | Edited 4:23am
Today' trades.

Now I took a silly long on cable this morning for a small loss due to the fear of missing out and I broke my rules on the trade.

I then traded the cpi release this morning (which was the only morning trade in my diary) as I knew that would be the big factor to stop the heavy buying. We had a big miss on cpi and I have profited heavily from this. I will take half the profit and swing trade the rest until Thursday close or Friday or even maybe beyond this destination depending on news flow etc.

I will be trading the cad interest rate release later this afternoon and I will update you on this also.

Thanks
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  • #391
  • Apr 18, 2018 6:52am Apr 18, 2018 6:52am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I use to watch them when I 1st started out but then I purchased ransqauwk so I get my analysis from them roughly at 6am every morning which provides guidance for what sentiment is out there. The guy who normally does the morning briefings at amplified is a superb analyst and commentator as he use to be the main squawker at Ransquawk and that guy has made firms and retailer traders hundreds of millions with him delivering ground breaking news. When I get back to London I will attend a few of their workshops just to see whether I can gain...
I've seen the doc, the amplify footage is really interesting. Anthony Cheung, I follow him on twitter, really knows what he's talking about.
btw samson are in a traders telegram group by anychance? Theres a guy called samson in one of the group chats I'm in, wondering if that's you.
  • #392
  • Apr 18, 2018 7:27am Apr 18, 2018 7:27am
Quoting wannabebig
{quote} I've seen the doc, the amplify footage is really interesting. Anthony Cheung, I follow him on twitter, really knows what he's talking about. btw samson are in a traders telegram group by anychance? Theres a guy called samson in one of the group chats I'm in, wondering if that's you.
HAHAHAHAHAHA thats me I'm sure you could have told by pic of the chart I put in there lol of this mornings cpi trade.

There is only one samson!!! Lol.
  • #393
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:58am Apr 18, 2018 8:58am
Yes fundamental works 100% because market moves based on the fundamental. But the question is do you have that much knowledge to analyse and predict the future of an economy or your fundamental analysis is based on what some experts are saying on different platform. If you are doing the second one, you are just gambling.
  • #394
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:19am Apr 18, 2018 9:19am
Quoting Samson85
Today' trades. Now I took a silly long on cable this morning for a small loss due to the fear of missing out and I broke my rules on the trade. I then traded the cpi release this morning (which was the only morning trade in my diary) as I knew that would be the big factor to stop the heavy buying. We had a big miss on cpi and I have profited heavily from this. I will take half the profit and swing trade the rest until Thursday close or Friday or even maybe beyond this destination depending on news flow etc. I will be trading the cad interest rate...
I just finished trading the cad interest rate decision. There was a lot of positive talk via the squawk but the risk of nafta and trade war prevented the rate hike.

I caught the move late as I had to proper digest the language as I just don't follow the volatility as that's how you get burnt when trading a risk event such a statement or speech as there could be wording at the end that changes the direction completely.

Been a good from both cad and cable although I underestimated pound strength as we still have buyers but still took profit
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  • #395
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:41am Apr 18, 2018 9:41am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I just finished trading the cad interest rate decision. There was a lot of positive talk via the squawk but the risk of nafta and trade war prevented the rate hike. I caught the move late as I had to proper digest the language as I just don't follow the volatility as that's how you get burnt when trading a risk event such a statement or speech as there could be wording at the end that changes the direction completely. Been a good from both cad and cable although I underestimated pound strength as we still have buyers but still took profit...
I've got profits from ucad, too. Speculators heared the news, they went long on ucad.
  • #396
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:45am Apr 18, 2018 9:45am
Quoting bond6627
{quote} I've got profits from ucad, too. Speculators heared the news, they went long on ucad.
Well done mate.

That was a very volatile trade. it was like a yoyo but I knew the buyers would outweigh the sellers.

You proper have to be in your game and listen to the language for a trade like that.
  • #397
  • Apr 18, 2018 11:29am Apr 18, 2018 11:29am
Quoting JonathanHob
Yes fundamental works 100% because market moves based on the fundamental. But the question is do you have that much knowledge to analyse and predict the future of an economy or your fundamental analysis is based on what some experts are saying on different platform. If you are doing the second one, you are just gambling.
People tend to over complicate fundamental analysis, but it is in fact simple, but you do have to improvise sometimes to be able to catch a move and keep up to date with whats going on.

A good example is that of the CAD interest rate release today along with the press conference:

The BOC fear growth is an issue, they want to see more business investment, they want nafta concluded, and the bombshell was that interest rates to remain low.

Now when you hear or read a dovish statement like the above that it tells you that CAD is going to lose strength for quite a few sessions. You now look at the 1 day chart along with other time frames for a suitable point of entry to ride the trend.

Its that simple.

Of course there is going to be sentiment along the way that makes it tank a few times like for example if trump sacks another key member of his team etc which will cause usd/cad weakness for a session or two but eventually the market will revert to the fundamental and keep the upward trend.

Hope this helps.
  • #398
  • Apr 18, 2018 5:18pm Apr 18, 2018 5:18pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} People tend to over complicate fundamental analysis, but it is in fact simple, but you do have to improvise sometimes to be able to catch a move and keep up to date with whats going on. A good example is that of the CAD interest rate release today along with the press conference: The BOC fear growth is an issue, they want to see more business investment, they want nafta concluded, and the bombshell was that interest rates to remain low. Now when you hear or read a dovish statement like the above that it tells you that CAD is going to lose...
Nice moves Samson. This might just be the excuse for bears to get a nice retrace going on GBP. If you notice on the TECHNICALS price has been playing with the 1.4350s on the GBPUSD, a high not touched since January and before that June 2016, while the GBPJPY still cant make it over that 154.00, again since June 2016.

On the CAD side there was 6 trading days of testing the 1.2550 levels & 85.40 level of the USDCAD & CADJPY respectively before this small change in direction due to news.

Coincidence? Big Forex waiting for the news and holding price levels? Is this start of a downward wave?

I have no clue, I am not an insider. Just trade what I see.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #399
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:58pm Apr 18, 2018 9:58pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Nice moves Samson. This might just be the excuse for bears to get a nice retrace going on GBP. If you notice on the TECHNICALS price has been playing with the 1.4350s on the GBPUSD, a high not touched since January and before that June 2016, while the GBPJPY still cant make it over that 154.00, again since June 2016. On the CAD side there was 6 trading days of testing the 1.2550 levels & 85.40 level of the USDCAD & CADJPY respectively before this small change in direction due to news. Coincidence? Big Forex waiting for the news and...
Hey Ric,

I agree with you on GBP/USD with the 1.4350's. On the 17th we had bounced of the daily pivot caused by employment data which caused pound to fall then it went up to 1.43481 then rejected that resistance level (was also in line with a fibanachi level for extra confluence) from January then the sell off began.

CAD has taken its foot of pedal with all this news about nafta deals getting done by possibly year end then it changing to 3 weeks lol and also the interest rate release we had yesterday caused huge movement but was bearish tone from boc.

I'm going to set up a few swing trades on currencies and look to attack Oil as well because there are pips to be made on it.
  • #400
  • Edited 10:45pm Apr 18, 2018 10:19pm | Edited 10:45pm
I have gone short GBP/USD as profit taking will start taking place from this recent run up due to poor CPI & Employment data this week. I believe GBP/USD is going to fall to 1.40. Option traders are also betting that the pound is to fall to 1.40 rather than rally up to 1.45 according to bloomberg.com

The entry was taken on the 23.6% fibanachi level 1.42011.

You will see this month has a similar upward trend to that of last year September (chart below with arrow indicating sell off) when pound rallied up for the same reasons (Pricing in interest rate) and later fell back down due to profit taking which is the same scenario here.

I hope this will be 2nd successful swing trade I take, as I managed to catch 240 pips on a swing this month for gbp/usd going long

I did open a position on eur/cad going long but I closed it for a 6 pip loss due the fundamental conviction around it. I may enter it again once I get more clarification from the analysts at Ransquawk about the long term picture of cad.
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