NZD/USD

Added my short.

Nzd starting to pull back wait for engulfing pattern in h1 chart
Open buy position at 0.7312 Sl 0.7290

Hi, I think it's time for a quick update. April 13 CIT has worked nicely. ( see https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10962691 )

The April 13 maximum was 0.7395, and today's minimum is, by the moment, 0.7303. That's 92 pips, but with my system, I extracted 120 pips (closed trades), that's because I add to my winning trades, not to my losses.

What to expect? I expect a continuation of the bearish movement initiated on April 13. At least until one of the zones marked with orange rectangles.
Remember that on Friday 20, there is another CIT, so market can reverse between Thursday and Monday, but as always, we need a price confirmation.

PS. On April I posted another CIT date, there was a typing error, I wrote April 28, but the correct date is April 30. So next CITs are:

-April 20
-April 30
-May 3

It's time for a quick update. On April 13, I forecasted a possible bearish path (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10962691), and as you can see, The NZDUSD is following the forecasted path very well, and right now is testing the target zone just in time because today is a CIT day. Anyway, let's see if there is some price reversal between today and Monday. Without a price reversal, the trend is bearish, so I'm opening only short positions until CIT is validated by a price confirmation.

Despite all this, there are some things that make me think that this time the CIT can fail. Let's see how the Kiwi closes today, and I will expand information this weekend.

This is my weekend review and trading plan for the next week.

Let's see the NZDUSD and other markets. Yes, today I talk about other markets because I think we are near an inflection point.

Since the beginning of the year, the NZDUSD has been in a range, sideways, also the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD. Some day or another will be a breakout on this pairs, and I think this day is closer than many think, and the resulting trend will be strong.

Besides of this, if you look the USD index, there is a triangle, and I think is going to be a bullish breakout. If so, most probably, is going to be a bearish breakout on the four pairs mentioned above.

What could trigger such move? In my opinion these two:

1- Another fall in the stock market.
2- Fed monetary policy. Another Rate hike on May 2.

Regarding point 1, from my point of view, the US stock market is now looking ugly, and ready for another bearish leg. If so, most probably, the USD will be bought, breaking his triangle and triggering the breakout on NZDUSD, EURUSD; GBPUSD and AUDUSD.

The exposed above is just a possibility I have, but If it's confirmed, then the resulting trend will be, most probably strong, and a lot of money can be made if it's traded correctly. In strong trends, the CIT's dates are almost useless.

Now, the NZDUSD specifically:

Monthly chart: After breaking last month's highs, the price has reversed and right now, the monthly open, and the close (Friday's close) are below of he Pldot.With 6 trading days left to end the month, I would not be surprised with a monthly close below last month's lows, in which case, the monthly bar will be a Bearish Engulfing Outside Bar (BEOB).

Weekly chart: Here there isn't much to say, a Bearish Engulfing Bar at resistance zone (BEEB). Is the "B" path the right one? with yesterday's close, it looks it is.

Daily chart: Right now, the NZDUSD is testing the bearish trendline, as I forecasted some days ago. But for the reasons exposed above (USD, the stock market, interest rates), now I think there is a possible bearish breakout of this range. Anyway, this support can holds again, so the "A" path is still possible.

In a nutshell: The system is bearish and I'm going to sell this market until the market confirms a buy signal.

Right now, the $ index is breaking his bearish trendline, and the NZDUSD is on the support zone and is trading below 0.72.

It looks like the market is following the possible scenario discussed this weekend.

If this afternoon US markets also fall, and the breakout on $ index is confirmed, then things can be very interesting for pairs related to USD, a lot of money can be made in the following weeks. Let's see.

Offering some resistence here but absolutly nothing after this until .70000 big figure. Holding small shorts but if this goes, through resistence, I will add .02 more lots and then another .04 lots after it breaks .71000. This will be trade of the month for me

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EH5EWxAi/

Bear Trap / Daily Demand Zone.
Go long.
stop 0.7100( currently 0.7130)
target 0.7200
R:R= 3.3:1

I think is good to work always with other possibilities. Look the orange channel. Maybe we are going nowhere until the Eu rate decision on Thursday. Yes, I know, I'm talking about EU decision rate and this is NZD, but the whole market is linked.

Long trend forecast on the daily chart. Good signals from the oscillators.

As I did explain in this weekend's update, I was expecting a big drop in the US stock market, and it looks like today is the beginning. All the pieces begin to fit together, anyway I was also expecting more strength on $ index, and today is in red. Let's see how this week close.

Extremely sold for nzd, buying a few now @0,7070

More below if it dips

First target 0,7150

Some resistance here but just like 0.7155 area, should slice through easy today or tomorrow. I think the 61.8 fib at .7028 might be a pause on the journey down to ?

The NZDUSD still has some way to go southward. The weekly and monthly tfs are technically synced for a bearish disposition. Price action on the weekly tf is operating in a wide horizontal channel (magenta coloured in attached D1 chart) and disposed southward, perhaps with bears being attracted to the channel support. A support trendline (black) has been breached by price action.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Few more broken support left and after that reverse.

.70000 a big number. I don't think we break it this week. Should take a while to work through all the stops from the longs getting out. Under .70000 it should be fast move down as New Zealand economy very weak and US economy super strong

I want to remember that April 30 is a CIT day, anyway I see a signal of an imminent rebound, so a change in trend can be a day early, so I prefer to close my short positions and I'm looking to open long positions.

I will expand information on weekend.

Weekend update:

As I suspected on Thursday, a rebound was near, and with yesterday's price action we finally have a CIT price confirmation (CIT April 30 +- 1day). I'm currently bullish on NZDUSD.

Now, let's take a look at different timeframes:

Monthly chart: Last weekend I was talking about the possibility of a monthly BEOB, and with only one day left to the end of the month, it looks like we will have the BEOB. We only need a close below of 0.7155 to confirm it. If so, the bearish implications will be relevant.

Weekly chart: Not much to add. Bearish week. With this week, it looks like the "A" path is discarded, and we are heading to "B" target zone (blue zone).

Daily: Several things made me think we are near a correction of this bearish trend, are this:

- April 30 is a CIT day (+-1day)
- Friday's price action.
- We are at support zone ( Although the price reversed a few pips before of the blue zone, I consider is valid because there is a price level at 0.7057)
- NZDUSD is very oversold ( D1 and below).

Because of all of this, I expect a pullback to the yellow zone ( D1 chart) and, after that, a continuation of the bearish trend, but if the price doesn't follow this path, and I don't see bullish pressure (Monday or Tuesday) I will resume short positions.

Next CIT dates:

-May 3
-May 9

We are through the big number .70000. Next stop .6932 area.

Just hang on to your shorts, don't be tempted to cover and reload shorts at a higher level. How many bull candles on the daily charts have you seen lately? This is a one-way ticket!