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  • #281
  • Apr 16, 2018 2:32am Apr 16, 2018 2:32am
Quoting Samson85
So for today's trade I have gone long gbp/USD. The reason for this trade is pound is still on a bullish run due to the rate hike we will be getting soon. Cad is weak due to oil and trump saying he doesn't know when the nafta deal will happen although both parties are optimistic. Hopefully the trade pans out well {image}
I also hedged the trade against this one by going long gbp/aud as well, but I closed both positions with a tiny profit as this seems to be a consolidation monday.

Oil has tanked quite a bit as well.
  • #282
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:40am Apr 16, 2018 4:40am
Quoting Samson85
So for today's trade I have gone long gbp/USD. The reason for this trade is pound is still on a bullish run due to the rate hike we will be getting soon. Cad is weak due to oil and trump saying he doesn't know when the nafta deal will happen although both parties are optimistic. Hopefully the trade pans out well {image}

Although I closed the trade you can see my analysis was in fact correct and it hit the profit target that being the r2 pivot. It being a Monday and I didn't want to take the risk of stand still consolidation for typical Mondays
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  • #283
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:56am Apr 16, 2018 10:56am
Any good source / book to learn the concepts of fundamentals? Other than babypips or similars.
  • #284
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:15am Apr 16, 2018 11:15am
Quoting Byrig
Any good source / book to learn the concepts of fundamentals? Other than babypips or similars.

Well these are the best videos below I would say for fundamentals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80eJbVhxWlI&t=2072s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W0et0enfQs&t=1502s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQBjHK-SH4&t=1729s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeXNJEIhVbo&t=1873s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKaMiZWPrQ&t=677s
  • #285
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:17am Apr 16, 2018 11:17am
Appreciated, will check those right now. Will keep an eye to this thread so please keep up the good work!
  • #286
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:26am Apr 16, 2018 11:26am
Still accumulating CADJPY and GBPJPY longs

Nothing has changed fundamentally for either 3 currencies.

GBP inflation is expected to keep rising. BOE rate hike probabilities continue to climb.

BTFD.
  • #287
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:27am Apr 16, 2018 11:27am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Waiting for a pullback on both USDCAD & CADJPY before adding. USDCAD looks to petering out but you never know. CADJPY is looking good until at least 89.00 and then 91.00. Beyond that you have to go back to August 2015 before price was above that level. I hope your right about riding it through September! - Ric
I wouldn't short USD against CAD, there are much fundamentally weaker pairs to trade the CAD against, like the CHF or JPY.
  • #288
  • Apr 16, 2018 11:57am Apr 16, 2018 11:57am
Quoting ShutterLake
{quote} I wouldn't short USD against CAD, there are much fundamentally weaker pairs to trade the CAD against, like the CHF or JPY.
With chf you'e right as a few banks are in on that trade and it's been trending well.

JPY yes and no as alot of risk off sentiment is there but the risk off gets used for pullbacks so it works well for risk on
  • #289
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:10pm Apr 16, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Although I closed the trade you can see my analysis was in fact correct and it hit the profit target that being the r2 pivot. It being a Monday and I didn't want to take the risk of stand still consolidation for typical Mondays {image}
Not to rain on your parade (you know I can't resist) but your successful trade ( I'm happy you made pips) wasn't because of the reasons you mentioned.

CAD wasn't weak due to oil. In fact CAD was actually moving up verse virtually all other currencies except the Euro. GBP/CAD move north was because of US dollar weakness, not CAD weakness.

Remember GC = GU x UC

Technically speaking, you bought into resistance before any breakout occurred.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #290
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:14pm Apr 16, 2018 12:14pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} Not to rain on your parade (you know I can't resist) but your successful trade ( I'm happy you made pips) wasn't because of the reasons you mentioned. CAD wasn't weak due to oil. In fact CAD was actually moving up verse virtually all other currencies except the Euro. GBP/CAD move north was because of US dollar weakness, not CAD weakness. Remember GC = GU x UC Technically speaking, you bought into resistance before any breakout occurred.

Lol expo.

I bet against the cad because no deal had been reached and the white house said nafta may not happen as far as year end which means we will very unlikely get a hike but there could be other factors involved
  • #291
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:43pm Apr 16, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol expo. I bet against the cad because no deal had been reached and the white house said nafta may not happen as far as year end which means we will very unlikely get a hike but there could be other factors involved
And like I said, CAD moved up verse all other currencies except the Euro. You may have been "betting" against CAD but your trade was successful because dynamic traders (those that move price) were buying GBP/USD more heavily than they were selling USD/CAD.

Come on I'm just trying to provide some free education. As oil was languishing and testing 66, UCAD was selling off? Hmmm, that breaks correlation doesn't it? But why? Because traders dumped the US dollar across the board, and that is the only reason GCAD rose, nothing to do with CAD weakness, oil, NAFTA, Syria, etc etc.

Wrong analysis, right trade. You know that old song, "Don't worry, be happy"

PS. If you want to claim fundies "trump" technicals 100% of the time then expect to be corrected when your fundy analysis is 200% incorrect.

Your welcome, it's the least I could do.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #292
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:08pm Apr 16, 2018 4:08pm
As a trader, if you want to make money TECHNICAL 100% beats FUNDAMENTALS everyday of the week. The fundamental people here prove this. With all your knowledge of whats happening in the world and with your currency you dont make any money from
it. Not consistently.
The only time News Announcement matters is when its high impact (first release, volaitile) so you can know NOT to trade. And wait til after it. Besides that news sentiment, news bias dont matter at all. IF you know technicals which IS NOT fibs,gann, stohs, movjng bloody averages or macds LOL. If you knew how to trade properly youd realise this but unfortunetly the education isnt out there and only 1% of traders get it. Its about putting the whole story together - INSTITUTIONAL MONEY.
Price Indicators move because of price - CANT USE
Price moves because of INSTO MONEY
INSTO MONEY moves to ACCUMULATE

yes the macro trends will eventually tie up witth macro world fundamentals but by that time its too late to trade or if you do trade macro trends your risk reward is not even worth it in the end.
  • #293
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:22pm Apr 16, 2018 4:22pm
Quoting Expo33
{quote} And like I said, CAD moved up verse all other currencies except the Euro. You may have been "betting" against CAD but your trade was successful because dynamic traders (those that move price) were buying GBP/USD more heavily than they were selling USD/CAD. Come on I'm just trying to provide some free education. As oil was languishing and testing 66, UCAD was selling off? Hmmm, that breaks correlation doesn't it? But why? Because traders dumped the US dollar across the board, and that is the only reason GCAD rose, nothing to do with CAD weakness,...

Lol you're funny!!

I was in the trade from earlier in the day and cad was not holding up the best vs other currencies and seemed stagnated.

The aim is to trade the strongest currency vs weakest currency when trading sentiment. I also consider the price and levels when trading (look at my last gbp/aud trade in the thread). In this instance I liked gbp/cad as we are not any closer to getting to a deal based on my research.

When pound was having it's strong driver in the day gbp really pressured cad. Nzd took a beating also but I haven't trusted going against NZD as it has been gaining strength for a while for no identified reason so I did not risk it due to its randomness.

If you read the usd/cad thread I said to trade gbp vs cad. The main thing here is that I knew pound would crush everything but I knew it wouldn't fully batter the jpy hence it not beating Fridays highs today.

The main thing here is that I knew GBP would beat everything but I chose to trade gbp/cad & gbp/aud today and if I had held both would have hit target
  • #294
  • Edited 4:57pm Apr 16, 2018 4:39pm | Edited 4:57pm
Quoting MLeslie
As a trader, if you want to make money TECHNICAL 100% beats FUNDAMENTALS everyday of the week. The fundamental people here prove this. With all your knowledge of whats happening in the world and with your currency you dont make any money from it. Not consistently. The only time News Announcement matters is when its high impact (first release, volaitile) so you can know NOT to trade. And wait til after it. Besides that news sentiment, news bias dont matter at all. IF you know technicals which IS NOT fibs,gann, stohs, movjng bloody averages or macds...
Lol keep telling yourself that. There is a reason for supply & demand. People buy things for a reason and it's no different when dealing with currencies.

How can you come on here bashing me when how I trade works and the person who I gained the majority of my style from is a very consistent trader.

Someone like you would probably go long usd/cad because it took a hit and think it's temporary not knowing what's really driving the market.

People like you prefer technicals because it requires less thinking and not having to add up the dots. Each to their own.

So seeing as my fundamental style does not work please explain to me how I got such a good buy on my swing trade for cable (maybe its because i knew the BOE are going to hike interest rates next month) and please explain why it's up over 200 points and I am trading it risk free currently you'll see that I have been holding that trade since the 9th mate!!! So please don't patronize me because clearly I know what I am doing!!!


I'm doing very well with my trading as I invest in my business to make sure the probability is always on my side to win when trading. I am not simply reading bloomberg.com but I am paying for a service that has access to Bloomberg terminal, reuters and much more so I get info fast and I get to know what's moving the market. Gordon gekkoe said "the most powerful commodity is information"!! I take it you never picked up on that line from wall street the movie lol.
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  • #295
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:52pm Apr 16, 2018 4:52pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol keep telling yourself that. There is a reason for supply & demand. People buy things for a reason and it's no different when dealing with currencies. How can you come on here bashing me when how I trade works and the person who I gained the majority of my style from is a very consistent trader. Someone like you would probably go long usd/cad because it took a hit and think it's temporary not knowing what's really driving the market. People like you prefer technicals because it requires less thinking and not having to add up the dots....
Less thinking? Lol.
You dont understand technicals. I know whats driving my market 100% TODAY.
Interest rate rises coming wont help you today.
for example cad is highly correlated wih oil. So how donyou take advantage of that? Unfortunetly you dont understand the accumulation process so you will never will get the required risk reward needed for a successful trading career.
if your “educator” is truly successful he/she will have tools/education that she/he is holding back from you and only traching you half of what he/she knows. Proof? You dont make money. Simple.
  • #296
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:59pm Apr 16, 2018 4:59pm
And im sorry I dont mean to be mean. I am
being harsh to be kind. Enjoy it as a hobby make some money sometimes and hopefully each year can be 10-20% up. But reality is, a successful RETAIL trader will be 400-500% up every year.

Nice GBPUSD trade.
up 200 points great? Whats your initial risk? 400 points?
  • #297
  • Apr 16, 2018 5:05pm Apr 16, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting MLeslie
And im sorry I dont mean to be mean. I am being harsh to be kind. Enjoy it as a hobby make some money sometimes and hopefully each year can be 10-20% up. But reality is, a successful RETAIL trader will be 400-500% up every year. Nice GBPUSD trade.
I think my previous response showing detail of my current swing trade and profit really silences you!!

Keep bashing on about how fundamentals don't work and I will keep posting winning trades lol!!!

You will see there was pretty much 0 drawdown because i was moving not far behind the big boys. #Fundamentals

Now you want to question my risk management
  • #298
  • Apr 16, 2018 5:12pm Apr 16, 2018 5:12pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I think my previous response showing detail of my current swing trade and profit really silences you!! Keep bashing on about how fundamentals don't work and I will keep posting winning trades lol!!!
One trade without showing me risk or target and the aribitrage isnt proof of great trading.

You definetly have knowledge and are lot better equiped than 90% of retail traders out there. Thats great you may survive. What Im saying is theres a better way and the technicals you have not been taught. Where you make 1:1 or 2:1 on 200 points would be 10:1 or 20:1 with a proper technical trader.

Macro direction is half the story that is usable sometimes/certain situations. Its not the main thing. This is hard to grasp because your mind (like us all) is LINEAR in thinking of the markets.

Ok so those days where you have all the fundamentals correct yet price goes against you and you have to cut trades? Whats the issue then? why did that happen? Do you just say “oh well the market is wrong?”
the market is never wrong
  • #299
  • Apr 16, 2018 5:27pm Apr 16, 2018 5:27pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol you're funny!! I was in the trade from earlier in the day and cad was not holding up the best vs other currencies and seemed stagnated. The aim is to trade the strongest currency vs weakest currency when trading sentiment. I also consider the price and levels when trading (look at my last gbp/aud trade in the thread). In this instance I liked gbp/cad as we are not any closer to getting to a deal based on my research. When pound was having it's strong driver in the day gbp really pressured cad. Nzd took a beating also but I haven't trusted...
As usual you completely don't address any of the points I raised. Just "I knew it would crush" even though you stated it was because of all the other irrelevant reasons. When traders (or wannabee traders) tell me they "know" where price is going the red flags go up and the sirens ring loud.

It was a technical London breakout, pure and simple.

Anyways, good luck with your Nostradamus thing.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #300
  • Apr 16, 2018 5:28pm Apr 16, 2018 5:28pm
Quoting MLeslie
{quote} One trade without showing me risk or target and the aribitrage isnt proof of great trading. You definetly have knowledge and are lot better equiped than 90% of retail traders out there. Thats great you may survive. What Im saying is theres a better way and the technicals you have not been taught. Where you make 1:1 or 2:1 on 200 points would be 10:1 or 20:1 with a proper technical trader. Macro direction is half the story that is usable sometimes/certain situations. Its not the main thing. This is hard to grasp because your mind (like us...
You are somewhat confused. Fundamentals is not just macro data lol. The Fed does not hike based even on its own macro data lmao.

If you have time, lookout for BOC rate release. You will see some volatility. The service I pay for will read out the statement via squawk and I then press buy or sell and make over 50 pips in 5 minutes. That is one example of my trading.

Yes you are correct that macro is only part of the story because you have to consider sentiment as well. For example Syria situation is sentiment. If trump fires a key staff member it's sentiment or Theresa May is at risk of losing her job it's sentiment.

A key fundamental right now which is easy to see is cable.

If a trade randomly goes against me I have access to analyst's who I can question to see what's going on in the market lol. How I make money via forex involves me spending money to access info.

Mate go and research ransquawk or even livesquawk and see what value it can add to your trading like it does me
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