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  • #3,221
  • Edited 7:30am Apr 14, 2018 7:12am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Well the main strength this week came from the Saudis saying they want to see $80. Syria move also contributed to it although it had little effect on safe haven currencies but commodity currencies like cad benefited. Let's see how the market digest the news as this also involves Russia as well
While i still think OPEC countries are important their production cuts coupled with the fact the US is out pacing their production with shale, squares it for me. I'm under the impression there is no shortage of oil unless created via artificial slowing of the supply. The price of oil has risen since last year and OIL companies want a higher price for sure while production is artificially low, but that does not mean they will get what they want, US rigs keep coming up.
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The spike up on the trump tweet happened when these numbers were released
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That was a surprise number of 3.3m, which normally would suggest a lower price, but because of the trump tweet the price jumped up, which means we have it priced in AND we are at a 3 year high @ close to $68. My trade would be short given everything I've read.

The attack does not seem to be a big one but i hate the fact that over the weekend gaps can be nasty. I would expect WTI to clip that $68 if not it's on its way down now. If it passes that $68 trend level you might see price pop up to the top side because people who are short will pull out. That's my theory anyway.

I had a quick look at the COT report and I'm getting mixed signals, Commercial traders are short and non-Commercial traders are long, but that report was made on the 10th, 2 days before the trump tweet.
  • #3,222
  • Apr 14, 2018 7:29am Apr 14, 2018 7:29am
Quoting RockDove
{quote} While i still think OPEC countries are important their production cuts coupled with the fact the US is out pacing their production with shale, squares it for me. I'm under the impression there is no shortage of oil unless created via artificial slowing of the supply. The price of oil has risen since last year and OIL companies want a higher price for sure while production is artificially low, but that does not mean they will get what they want, US rigs keep coming up. The spike up on the trump tweet happened when these numbers were released...

The trump tweet played a part but the main fact is that the Saudis said they want to see $80 And that was said the same day as the oil inventory data. That is why the market went crazy. The next Iranians said they want to see 65 (if I remember). Price dropped a little but the market came to the conclusion that Saudis hold more weight in terms of oil supply.
  • #3,223
  • Apr 14, 2018 7:45am Apr 14, 2018 7:45am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The trump tweet played a part but the main fact is that the Saudis said they want to see $80 And that was said the same day as the oil inventory data. That is why the market went crazy. The next Iranians said they want to see 65 (if I remember). Price dropped a little but the market came to the conclusion that Saudis hold more weight in terms of oil supply.
It may go to $80 brent in this slow upward trend eventually, might be a pull back at 68 short term, down to 65 WTI.

For those interested in Samson85 idea.
Short video relating to what the Saudis want.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...il-price-video
  • #3,224
  • Apr 14, 2018 7:54am Apr 14, 2018 7:54am
Quoting RockDove
{quote} It may go to $80 brent in this slow upward trend eventually, might be a pull back at 68 short term, down to 65 WTI. For those interested in Samson85 idea. Short video relating to what the Saudis want. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...il-price-video
If Saudi Arabia wants 80$ then it will definitely go up to 80$ but before that it has to proved last week inventory report so 65$ should happen first.
  • #3,225
  • Apr 15, 2018 9:43pm Apr 15, 2018 9:43pm
Quoting RockDove
Lets not have Amnesia. Last year on the 7th of April which is exactly 1 year ago, POTUS gave orders for the 2017 Shayrat missile strike in Syria. 59 Tomahawk cruise rockets were launched at the Shayrat Airbase and was a significantly larger attack than the recent attack today. Go look at USOIL in your charts on the 7th of April of last year, it was a friday. The price of oil did not spike, it just followed the trend. There was no anomaly in the price action related to this event. I'm not giving advice here since i could very well be wrong, but if...

I will eat my humble pie on this one and congratulate your counter analysis.

Let's make some pips this week on oil
  • #3,226
  • Apr 16, 2018 4:02am Apr 16, 2018 4:02am
Quoting mihrutkanik
probably. {image}
im going to consider this. for now situation quite similar
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  • #3,227
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:00pm Apr 16, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting RockDove
Lets not have Amnesia. Last year on the 7th of April which is exactly 1 year ago, POTUS gave orders for the 2017 Shayrat missile strike in Syria. 59 Tomahawk cruise rockets were launched at the Shayrat Airbase and was a significantly larger attack than the recent attack today. Go look at USOIL in your charts on the 7th of April of last year, it was a friday. The price of oil did not spike, it just followed the trend. There was no anomaly in the price action related to this event. I'm not giving advice here since i could very well be wrong, but if...
Just to clarify the strike actually took place on April 6th at 8:40pm EST. which was the morning of April 7th local Syrian time.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #3,228
  • Apr 17, 2018 8:33am Apr 17, 2018 8:33am
I think the most important thing to remember here is that we have had 2 years in a row where these strikes took place in Syria, both had very little effect on the price of oil. So It's important to remember in the future if this type of thing happens again, remember the behavior / study the movements.

I'm waiting for crude oil stock change on Thursday before i place another trade, I'll update what i think then.
  • #3,229
  • Apr 17, 2018 10:08am Apr 17, 2018 10:08am
Check this twitter account it's for oil and gold forecast
https://twitter.com/spyforecast
  • #3,230
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:02am Apr 18, 2018 8:02am
The saudis came out and said they want to see $80 for price and that they would be happy with $100 also lol. Oil gone up!!
  • #3,231
  • Apr 21, 2018 6:52am Apr 21, 2018 6:52am
Hey guys,

just a little technical analysis insight what would i be expecting to happen, i am not very experienced so take this just as possibility.
When you draw fibonacci expansion lines, you will see the confluence on 100% level its 71.44 - 71.52 price, where could happen turning back to 65 price, following throwback above price 72.
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-._.-
  • #3,232
  • Apr 24, 2018 2:01pm Apr 24, 2018 2:01pm
reckoning
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  • #3,233
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:09am Apr 25, 2018 9:09am
Oil may crack down here quite shortly
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #3,234
  • Apr 25, 2018 9:34am Apr 25, 2018 9:34am
There's the crack my friends
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #3,235
  • Edited 1:21am Apr 26, 2018 1:10am | Edited 1:21am
From here it should go down 3-4 dollars (I target 65 on wticousd Oanda), and then likely back up to 71-72 I think.
k
  • #3,236
  • Apr 27, 2018 6:36am Apr 27, 2018 6:36am
Quoting kprsa
From here it should go down 3-4 dollars (I target 65 on wticousd Oanda), and then likely back up to 71-72 I think. k
Ranging appears more likely for the next days, probably followed by an upswing to 71-72...
k
  • #3,237
  • Apr 27, 2018 8:47am Apr 27, 2018 8:47am
Venezuela output has been cut by half, I heard. I suspect this is more to do with political strife than anything else .... so unlikely to be fixed for a while.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #3,238
  • May 6, 2018 6:07am May 6, 2018 6:07am
Guys what do you think on Crude Oil. Last week production was highest in 2018 and I have a short position @68.50 I was thinking that this week price should fall to 66 or lower but I didn't notice or care Trump deal on Iran but for that reason (deal). Price jumped to 70 almost I think. Now Trump indicated to scrap the deal. So let me know what do you guys think
  • #3,239
  • May 7, 2018 3:37pm May 7, 2018 3:37pm
Be very careful tomorrow. The direction oil will move depends on the exact words that come out of Trumps mouth.

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump
I will be announcing my decision on the Iran Deal tomorrow from the White House at 2:00pm.
  • #3,240
  • May 7, 2018 3:38pm May 7, 2018 3:38pm
Quoting Situhin
Guys what do you think on Crude Oil. Last week production was highest in 2018 and I have a short position @68.50 I was thinking that this week price should fall to 66 or lower but I didn't notice or care Trump deal on Iran but for that reason (deal). Price jumped to 70 almost I think. Now Trump indicated to scrap the deal. So let me know what do you guys think
july or August target for 78.xx
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Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
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