Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100% | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Turn $100 into $10k in 100 trading days = high stress high RR 121 replies

High Leverage Trading, Going For A 100 Million, 100% A Week 149 replies

High Leverage Trading, 100k To 100 Million, 100% A Week 23 replies

Always Trading With a 1/1 RR Ratio 25 replies

The Market is always Technical 0 replies

Attachments: Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%
Exit Attachments

Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #261
  • Apr 12, 2018 9:25pm Apr 12, 2018 9:25pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Actually been long since March 9th on the Daily chart. It just seems to be slowing down. I can eat a 30% retrace but I don't want to . I am trying to get back up to the February 1st highs of between 155 & 156. However, next week is full of GBP news. Average Earnings, Unemployment, Year over Year CPI and monthly Retail Sales all in a row. If the news is bad or even mixed, intra-day and short term traders will knock the price down in fear (as always) in the short term. As always it is a wait and see approach as...

Tricky one for you. I feel pound still has legs in it due this up and coming hike. Why not take half your profits of the table and carry on the trade?
  • #262
  • Apr 12, 2018 10:38pm Apr 12, 2018 10:38pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Tricky one for you. I feel pound still has legs in it due this up and coming hike. Why not take half your profits of the table and carry on the trade?
It is tricky, even more tricky is I live in the States and have a total of 4 open trades, however we live by the FIFO rule, at least for now will see if Mr. Trump can do what he says, and I was thinking of closing my first & second trade and let the other 2 run. All 4 stops are are currently at 150.50 so we are in agreement Samson85, but that nag of "what if" is playing with me. I have made the decision that tomorrows EOD results will dictate the decision.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #263
  • Apr 12, 2018 11:30pm Apr 12, 2018 11:30pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} It is tricky, even more tricky is I live in the States and have a total of 4 open trades, however we live by the FIFO rule, at least for now will see if Mr. Trump can do what he says, and I was thinking of closing my first & second trade and let the other 2 run. All 4 stops are are currently at 150.50 so we are in agreement Samson85, but that nag of "what if" is playing with me. I have made the decision that tomorrows EOD results will dictate the decision. - Ric

I think a technical option (Yes I do technicals people for entry and close) is to look @ the gbp/usd chart and you'll see its near the highs so I dont see why gbp/jpy can't reach the same level considering its more volatile. If you like the profit you see then maybe close.

Only thing that could harm your trade is severe safe haven play but the bullish pound strength will not go down is easily on the pair. Also if the brexit minister drops a bombshell. Syria may weigh on the trade also.
  • #264
  • Edited 2:48am Apr 13, 2018 2:37am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...

As you can see i am replying to myself.

Now today I have not fully gone with the fundamentals for this mornings trade. I chose to trade gbp/aud because it had the best levels and price but pound is still way stronger than aud right now in terms of fundamentals (rate hike pricing in currently).

There is no paricular reason for aud buying but citi bank went in based on technicals but fundamentally only thing supporting aud is commodities but from a central bank perspective they are weak.


You will see in the chat pic that the analyst told me that aud has a bid but I did not trade the other pairs as they were all at daily highs (dont mind trading at highs tbh). As I mentioned in this thread technicals are good for point of entry and close.


The risk with this trade is that if oil gains based on potential syria strike the trade could collapse (GBP/JPY will also lose demand), but by that time I expect to be in profit ( Take profit to hit daily pivot). I was up 30 pips within 5 min of placing the trade due to a slick entry.

I might take half the profits on the table and let the trade ride up to the r1 pivot level with the stop at break even.

If the trade does not reach full target it will be because I partially ignored the fundamental rules. If it wins it will be because pound over powered aud and the entry proved worthwhile
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180413-141049.png Size: 146 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180413-141917.png Size: 2.3 MB
  • #265
  • Apr 13, 2018 3:30am Apr 13, 2018 3:30am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} As you can see i am replying to myself. Now today I have not fully gone with the fundamentals for this mornings trade. I chose to trade gbp/aud because it had the best levels and price but pound is still way stronger than aud right now in terms of fundamentals (rate hike pricing in currently). There is no paricular reason for aud buying but citi bank went in based on technicals but fundamentally only thing supporting aud is commodities but from a central bank perspective they are weak. You will see in the chat pic that the analyst told me...
Update on trade: Daily pivot hit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180413-152829.png Size: 128 KB
  • #266
  • Apr 13, 2018 11:56am Apr 13, 2018 11:56am
Here is the chart at close to 6pm. Overall it proved to be a solid trade even though we had solid aud bids throughout the session which weighed a little on the pair. There was a little scare as it dipped below the daily pivot twice only for it to go past it a 3rd time in which I secured profits

Hope This trade shows how powerful it can be to combine your fundamentals with your technicals.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180413-235140.png Size: 144 KB
  • #267
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:00pm Apr 13, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting Samson85
Hi, I just thought I would share this as I find it amazing how many people purely focusing on technicals rather than finding out what sentiment is driving the market. The reason why retail traders lose money is because they are not sailing their trades in the same direction as the big institutions. The big institutions only use technicals for point of entry or to close a trade. They would never use technical indicators to run a trade as they are trading billions on behalf of their clients. I use a professional news feed called Ransquawk which lets...
Sounds very interesting, now someone has spilled the beans.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #268
  • Apr 13, 2018 12:02pm Apr 13, 2018 12:02pm
Quoting PrinceJ58
{quote} Sounds very interesting, now someone has spilled the beans.
Lol spilled the beans how?
  • #269
  • Apr 13, 2018 1:09pm Apr 13, 2018 1:09pm
What pairs will you be watching next week @Samson85?
To Pipccess and Beyond
  • #270
  • Apr 13, 2018 1:35pm Apr 13, 2018 1:35pm
Quoting forexin101
What pairs will you be watching next week @Samson85?
I expect pound to still be bullish but it could consolidate after such a bullish week. Eur/GBP I have been told has been hit with heavy shorts by the big boys so maybe worth shorting on a pull back ( I haven't touched it by the way). look at the 1 day chart.

I think there will be heavy buying on cad into next week's cad rate decision as there is a 30% chance of a hike but the cpi and employment numbers are so good I think it's a possibility we could get a hike but nafta is what could hold it back.

I would say look out for Syria news as that will cause heavy yen buying and heavy buying on wti if usa announce strikes on them.

Apparently there will be strong buying for aud/usd which is currently taking place although fundamentally it's not right but commodities are apparently supporting it. So look for a pull back (I'm not trading it I think)

Eur/USD is up in the air.

Eur/chf broke some highs on the 1 week chart and has been bullish but I would look at cad/chf as well as I have seen banks are in on that.

Remember only take the trade if you see it going in the fundamental direction with good levels for entry. If it's not going the way it's meant to then find out why or just stay away from it.

Quite a few pairs have pulled back meaning can get good entries come Monday. For example aud/USD, gbp/USD and other pairs
  • #271
  • Apr 13, 2018 6:10pm Apr 13, 2018 6:10pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I expect pound to still be bullish but it could consolidate after such a bullish week. Eur/GBP I have been told has been hit with heavy shorts by the big boys so maybe worth shorting on a pull back ( I haven't touched it by the way). look at the 1 day chart. I think there will be heavy buying on cad into next week's cad rate decision as there is a 30% chance of a hike but the cpi and employment numbers are so good I think it's a possibility we could get a hike but nafta is what could hold it back. I would say look out for Syria news as that...
hey Samson85,

So after today's nice move up, I decided to close all 4 GBP/JPY Trades just before EOD netting 1490 total pips with the breakdown of:

Trade 1 March 9th 147.84 - 153.04 = +520

Add On Trade 1 March 19th 149.93 - 153.04 = +311

Add on Trade 2 April 3rd 149.70 - 153.04 = +334

Add on Trade 3 April 9th 149.79 - 153.04 = +325

Total Trade Time 26 Trading Days

The reasoning behind the add-on is a simple one I have been using for awhile. Price hit but never pierced or closed beyond the trend-line. That gives me confidence that price will continue. It does not always work that way, but this time it did.

The reason for closing instead of holding on is that today's high of 153.84 is around the same high that was hit on 1/8/18, 12/8/17 & 9/21/17. Each of those times price was hit, followed by a spiked candle and then a retrace or change in direction. The only time price broke and moved above was between 1/17/18 & 2/2/18. It did however struggle between those dates.

Add that to all the upcoming news and I look at it like this. If price continues upward and makes new highs, there will be an opportunity to get in on a retrace/pullback. If price comes down because of mixed or bad news that gives another opportunity in the short term to catch downward wave. Either way to put at risk the last month of profits just for the chance at another 200-300 pips did not make sense with all the news uncertainty that is coming out.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #272
  • Apr 13, 2018 6:25pm Apr 13, 2018 6:25pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Waiting for a pullback on both USDCAD & CADJPY before adding. USDCAD looks to petering out but you never know. CADJPY is looking good until at least 89.00 and then 91.00. Beyond that you have to go back to August 2015 before price was above that level. I hope your right about riding it through September! - Ric
Just to update, I decided to close both of these instead of adding on for the same reasons. Previous hits of highs/lows that price would hit and spike and retrace, given that it is the weekend with a fire storm of news and who knows what trump is gonna say over the weekend, I just took my profits. I am waiting for all the news to happen then look for an entry price. If anybody wants I can post the details, otherwise it is the some logic as the GBP/JPY trades.

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #273
  • Apr 13, 2018 9:59pm Apr 13, 2018 9:59pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} hey Samson85, So after today's nice move up, I decided to close all 4 GBP/JPY Trades just before EOD netting 1490 total pips with the breakdown of: Trade 1 March 9th 147.84 - 153.04 = +520 Add On Trade 1 March 19th 149.93 - 153.04 = +311 Add on Trade 2 April 3rd 149.70 - 153.04 = +334 Add on Trade 3 April 9th 149.79 - 153.04 = +325 Total Trade Time 26 Trading Days The reasoning behind the add-on is a simple one I have been using for awhile. Price hit but never pierced or closed beyond the trend-line. That gives me confidence that price will...



Now that's a fantastic trade and much appreciated for showing the breakdown of it.

One of the things I most admire about that trade was you had to go through quite a bit of risk off sentiment due to trump which might have been quite challenging psychologically as you only have to look at 1 day chart to see how choppy it was with some deep pull backs.

I actually went long for this with a small position back on February 9th (I think - calculating date on mobile chart ) due to seeing a long bullish candle as everyone was shouting buy but I closed it as I didn't have reasons for getting in and I was right because it fell 400 points shortly afterwards.

I think you was right to close as you came up against a few resistance levels and this Syria matter looks like it could be quite serious along with the trade wars etc.

I think we will get another pullback due to risk off sentiment which will create another chance for point of entry.
  • #274
  • Apr 13, 2018 10:13pm Apr 13, 2018 10:13pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Just to update, I decided to close both of these instead of adding on for the same reasons. Previous hits of highs/lows that price would hit and spike and retrace, given that it is the weekend with a fire storm of news and who knows what trump is gonna say over the weekend, I just took my profits. I am waiting for all the news to happen then look for an entry price. If anybody wants I can post the details, otherwise it is the some logic as the GBP/JPY trades. - Ric
I closed my usd/cad positions a few days ago also.

Something is telling me next week's BOC interest rate release that we could see a hike as current cpi and employment data is good and we know the boc is fully data dependent. The main thing holding them from hiking is Nafta but trump and Canada have indicated it will happen but just 0 clarification on a date.

I think CAD/jpy has the potential to form strong buying like we saw last year from June to September but could be more choppy rising upwards.

Saudi saying they want to see $80 dollars per barrel has contributed to cad strength quite a bit this week.

So i would keep a very close eye on cad on the day on the interest rate release.
  • #275
  • Apr 13, 2018 10:15pm Apr 13, 2018 10:15pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} hey Samson85, So after today's nice move up, I decided to close all 4 GBP/JPY Trades just before EOD netting 1490 total pips with the breakdown of: Trade 1 March 9th 147.84 - 153.04 = +520 Add On Trade 1 March 19th 149.93 - 153.04 = +311 Add on Trade 2 April 3rd 149.70 - 153.04 = +334 Add on Trade 3 April 9th 149.79 - 153.04 = +325 Total Trade Time 26 Trading Days The reasoning behind the add-on is a simple one I have been using for awhile. Price hit but never pierced or closed beyond the trend-line. That gives me confidence that price will...

Now you can feel happy about closing as this certainly going to cause some yen strength.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180414-101418.png Size: 688 KB
  • #276
  • Apr 13, 2018 11:46pm Apr 13, 2018 11:46pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Now that's a fantastic trade and much appreciated for showing the breakdown of it. One of the things I most admire about that trade was you had to go through quite a bit of risk off sentiment due to trump which might have been quite challenging psychologically as you only have to look at 1 day chart to see how choppy it was with some deep pull backs. I actually went long for this with a small position back on February 9th (I...
No risk no reward. However, as I stated, the only reason I do add-on is IF price does NOT close above/below the trend line. Otherwise I close if my stop-loss was not hit. I do wait for that small retrace, thank you scalpers & intra-day traders, and then a push in the right direction. IMHO, starting a new trade in the direction of an already successful and protected position, is worth the risk. So long as your stop-loss on the new trade is less than the total amount secured on your winning trade. That way, if it all goes pear shaped you will still have a winning trade.

Took me awhile to figure that out LOL
Be humble or get humbled
  • #277
  • Apr 14, 2018 12:40am Apr 14, 2018 12:40am
Quoting riclater211
{quote} No risk no reward. However, as I stated, the only reason I do add-on is IF price does NOT close above/below the trend line. Otherwise I close if my stop-loss was not hit. I do wait for that small retrace, thank you scalpers & intra-day traders, and then a push in the right direction. IMHO, starting a new trade in the direction of an already successful and protected position, is worth the risk. So long as your stop-loss on the new trade is less than the total amount secured on your winning trade. That way, if it all goes pear shaped you will...
I did add ons the week of the last BOE minutes as we were expected big brexit news the whole week (Ireland borders etc) and I rode sentiment for gbp/nzd & gbp/aud and caught some big pips but closed as soon as the minutes were somewhat dovish. Every time I did add ons I would set the 1st trade to near break even and let the 2nd trade be the one holding risk.
  • #278
  • Apr 14, 2018 6:56am Apr 14, 2018 6:56am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol spilled the beans how?
Talking about the good stuff...many would have to learn the hard way or not at all. Keep up the good stuff.
R:R "Percentage Focus"
  • #279
  • Apr 14, 2018 11:30am Apr 14, 2018 11:30am
Always thought smart money used this data to manipulate price to their favour, using that buy or selling preassure to fill selling or buying orders.
  • #280
  • Apr 15, 2018 10:18pm Apr 15, 2018 10:18pm
So for today's trade I have gone long gbp/USD.

The reason for this trade is pound is still on a bullish run due to the rate hike we will be getting soon. Cad is weak due to oil and trump saying he doesn't know when the nafta deal will happen although both parties are optimistic.

Hopefully the trade pans out well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180416-101409.png Size: 147 KB
0 traders viewing now