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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #28,401
  • Apr 11, 2018 6:19am Apr 11, 2018 6:19am
Hi all, new to FF. I trade GBPJPY most.

looking at the daily. A lot of ppl still bullish in the current trend. Understandable as its current and easy to see. I think its going back towards 145.5 soon though. Market volitility will create a lot of demand for the Yen. So it won't take much UK side news for the £ to weaken before it.
  • #28,402
  • Apr 11, 2018 7:26am Apr 11, 2018 7:26am
Quoting AyeAye
Hi all, new to FF. I trade GBPJPY most. looking at the daily. A lot of ppl still bullish in the current trend. Understandable as its current and easy to see. I think its going back towards 145.5 soon though. Market volitility will create a lot of demand for the Yen. So it won't take much UK side news for the £ to weaken before it.
Im with you in gj short side as well.
  • #28,403
  • Apr 11, 2018 8:10am Apr 11, 2018 8:10am
I have shorted too, I think it will depreciate back to 151.00.
  • #28,404
  • Apr 11, 2018 12:57pm Apr 11, 2018 12:57pm
Just as we want to short this thing, its been a struggle coming down for the last 4 hours. wow.
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #28,405
  • Apr 11, 2018 1:22pm Apr 11, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting FastPipn
Just as we want to short this thing, its been a struggle coming down for the last 4 hours. wow.
Im sitting on my hands. Looking for an entry to short. I hope it breaks 152 again and if that happens I will give it a try. At the moment this sideways movement is keeping me out.
  • #28,406
  • Edited Apr 12, 2018 12:02am Apr 11, 2018 9:32pm | Edited Apr 12, 2018 12:02am
This is always the area where you get fall-backs, but the end result is usually a decent move up. 152 on Sep 13 2013 was the launch level upon BOJ's first easing. Kuroda San has threatened more of that twice now in 2 days. This level has had significance at many times since 1994 and was itself a retest point for the consolidation that started around Dec 1995 - one that effectively runs a central pivot area of 185/195 - the one we're still in - the one that's been running for over 1100 months!
  • #28,407
  • Apr 12, 2018 7:00am Apr 12, 2018 7:00am
It rebounded from 151.16, I managed to close my short on time. I think it may now rally to 153.00.
  • #28,408
  • Apr 13, 2018 1:38am Apr 13, 2018 1:38am
Was a very long and messy cup, but suspect now rising up the right side (as in right hand side) of the handle. Handle retrace was near enough to 38%. Should it continue up (either directly or a little messy) would expect marginal new high, followed by small fall back into 154/155 or something like that.
  • #28,409
  • Apr 13, 2018 8:47am Apr 13, 2018 8:47am
I think that for the moment we can expect a rally to 154.00 at least.
  • #28,410
  • Apr 13, 2018 6:48pm Apr 13, 2018 6:48pm
If you are thinking of going long, be sure to watch out for the 153.80-154.00 level. It is around the same high that was hit on 1/8/18, 12/8/17 & 9/21/17. Each of those times price was hit, followed by a spiked candle and then a retrace or change in direction. The only time price broke and moved above was between 1/17/18 & 2/2/18. It did however struggle between those dates.

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #28,411
  • Edited 9:25pm Apr 13, 2018 9:12pm | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting riclater211
If you are thinking of going long, be sure to watch out for the 153.80-154.00 level. It is around the same high that was hit on 1/8/18, 12/8/17 & 9/21/17. Each of those times price was hit, followed by a spiked candle and then a retrace or change in direction. The only time price broke and moved above was between 1/17/18 & 2/2/18. It did however struggle between those dates. -Ric
Maybe you should go back before 2017. Maybe go back, just for heck of it, say, 20 years. In all honestly, should the current level not hold at next open, then 151.8 is back. If it does hold, then it (a) either breaks 153.8 (76% correction level), or (b) it falls back to 151.8. Failure below 150.2/3 probably suggests a wave 2 correction that starts a new downtrend, suggesting 156 was the top. Above 153.8 ish returns to 154.5 resistance and then above. Subsequent successful retest of 154.5 ish (eventually), allows a major move up back to the top and beyond.
  • #28,412
  • Apr 13, 2018 9:23pm Apr 13, 2018 9:23pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Maybe you should go back before 2017. Maybe go back, just for heck of it, say 20 years. In all honestly, should the current level not at next open, then 151.8 is back. If it does hold, then it either breaks 153.8, or it falls back then to 151.8 after another failure at or around 153.8. Failure below 150.2/3 suggests a wave 2 correction that starts a new downtrend.
It was just an observation based on the daily charts. No need to get snippy. If you trade short term that's fine, but maybe some people want to trade a bit longer term and me suggesting to watch out for a obvious point of support or resistance is not a bad thing. I didn't say do not trade, I said keep caution for those levels because they are established points of S&R.

Take it how you like it, it was just an observation.

Good Luck

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #28,413
  • Apr 13, 2018 9:34pm Apr 13, 2018 9:34pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} It was just an observation based on the daily charts. No need to get snippy. If you trade short term that's fine, but maybe some people want to trade a bit longer term and me suggesting to watch out for a obvious point of support or resistance is not a bad thing. I didn't say do not trade, I said keep caution for those levels because they are established points of S&R. Take it how you like it, it was just an observation. Good Luck - Ric
No aggression or criticism intended in the slightest. Just stating the facts as they appear. And, you are right that 154 ish is a big deal (although I had concerns about 153.5/6 earlier. In any event, over 154 or so opens to something possibly big - but failure there remains possible. Having said that, historical data /levels are valid and should be taken into account, yet very few people seem to be aware of what happened before last year, or in some cases, last month. In any case, sorry I upset you - but most importantly - Have a good weekend.
  • #28,414
  • Apr 13, 2018 9:58pm Apr 13, 2018 9:58pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} No aggression or criticism intended in the slightest. Just stating the facts as they appear. And, you are right that 154 ish is a big deal (although I had concerns about 153.5/6 earlier. In any event, over 154 or so opens to something possibly big - but failure there remains possible. Having said that, historical data /levels are valid and should be taken into account, yet very few people seem to be aware of what happened before last year, or in some cases, last month. In any case, sorry I upset you - but most importantly - Have a good weekend....
No problem at all my friend. You did not upset me in the slightest. I was just trying to help out fellow Dragon Riders.

have a great weekend

-Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #28,415
  • Apr 15, 2018 12:05pm Apr 15, 2018 12:05pm
May be from fibo 200 to fibo 200 of Controll candle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,416
  • Apr 16, 2018 7:22am Apr 16, 2018 7:22am
In my opinion it is rallying toward 153.84 again. We may see it form a double top.
  • #28,417
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:57am Apr 16, 2018 10:57am
Today's U.S session action on Hourly chart. 8am to 12pm
Attached Image
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #28,418
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:59am Apr 16, 2018 10:59am
Quoting FastPipn
Today's U.S session action on Hourly chart. 8am to 12pm {image}
I think we might have a little pullback and then sky rocket over 154.
  • #28,419
  • Apr 16, 2018 12:52pm Apr 16, 2018 12:52pm
Quoting xternity
{quote} I think we might have a little pullback and then sky rocket over 154.
Perhaps retrace towards 153.150 and farther down to 152.500 if no bounce
Just 20 pips a day to riches
  • #28,420
  • Apr 17, 2018 5:53am Apr 17, 2018 5:53am
It did form a double top around 153.80 and I think we'll see it depreciate before the end of the week.
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